When will it all end?

Plumbthedepths · 08-03-2021 03:24PM

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

I could ask you the same question or you could ask Micky the same question.

I'm just posting the actual scenarios which remain and the major outstanding question which remains unanswerable until next winter. it make little sense to ignore the likely outcomes.

You can check my post history on this thread, the count is very low.
You are just on a loop at this stage.
So you constantly repeat something that neither you or anyone else can answer without the aid of a crystal ball. Yeah makes sense.

El_Duderino 09 · 08-03-2021 03:30PM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

You can check my post history on this thread, the count is very low.
You are just on a loop at this stage.
So you constantly repeat something that neither you or anyone else can answer without the aid of a crystal ball. Yeah makes sense.

I only post it because it's relevant to the thread title and the question about when this will end.

It's clear that some people only want to consider the best case scenario. Only one poster was honest enough to say that's what they're doing.

What's your issue with discussing the fact that we don't know what will happen next winter. You don't seem to have any issue with posters who say it will definitely end this summer, even though you acknowledge in the post above that we don't know. Why is that?

ypres5 · 08-03-2021 03:31PM

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

I only post it because it's relevant to the thread title and the question about when this will end.

It's clear that some people only want to consider the best case scenario. Only one poster was honest enough to say that's what they're doing.

What's your issue with discussing the fact that we don't know what will happen next winter. You don't seem to have any issue with posters who say it will definitely end this summer, even though you acknowledge in the post above that we don't know. Why is that?

because we are currently rolling out 3 highly effective vaccines soon to become 4. theres a basis behind his argument while you're just waffling about a what if scenario

El_Duderino 09 · 08-03-2021 03:37PM

ypres5 wrote: »

because we are currently rolling out 3 highly effective vaccines soon to become 4. theres a basis behind his argument while you're just waffling about a what if scenario

Well the poster acknowledged that we would need a "crystal ball" to know what will happen next winter. So they certainly don't think it's that clear cut.

The question about what happens next winter is based on having most of the adult population vaccinated and no restrictions. What happens? We don't know yet. The urge to dismiss anything except the best case scenario is tempting and understandable , but not sensible.

Plumbthedepths · 08-03-2021 03:40PM

ypres5 wrote: »

because we are currently rolling out 3 highly effective vaccines soon to become 4. theres a basis behind his argument while you're just waffling about a what if scenario

Ignorance of previous pandemics springs to mind aswell.

Micky 32 · 08-03-2021 03:41PM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Do you not get fed up repeating the same stuff every 15 to 20 minutes?

Yeah there’s an obsession of restrictions next winter, it’s like they are hoping there is. iMO lockdowns will be over once vaccinated. Some people don’t want to let that go.

I’ll never eat waffles again, this thread has put me off them :pac:

HansKroenke · 08-03-2021 04:06PM

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/immunity-from-covid-19-lasts-up-to-six-months-after-infection-hiqa-1.4504198

Immunity after Covid-19 infection can last up to six months, the State’s health watchdog has advised.

This is twice the 12-week period that currently applies as guidance in Ireland.

“We have advised Nphet presumptive immunity should be extended to six months post-infection. The risk of re-infection with Sars-CoV-2 is low and no evidence was found to suggest that immunity wanes over this period,” said Dr Máirín Ryan, Hiqa’s deputy chief executive and director of health technology assessment.

It is of course qualified by what might happen with new variants but what is also important to note is that the 6 month period they have stated is a minimum period. There is no evidence that after 6 months a whole lot changes. As such, this really puts into perspective that the actual number of infections being far higher than our official tally should create even more momentum towards reopening. It potentially reduces vaccination targets and creates an incentive to push for widespread Antigen testing in order to see how many less people might need to be vaccinated than have been planned for.

El_Duderino 09 · 08-03-2021 04:08PM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Ignorance of previous pandemics springs to mind aswell.

I was told to "get over" what happened this Christmas just gone, as if it was irrelevant.

Lads I get that you're reluctant to consider anything except the best case scenario. It's clear that's what's happening because you're taking no issue with people speculating or pretending to know things you want to believe (best case scenario where things will go back to normal in the summer and remain normal) but when I suggest that we don't actually know whether things will be great in winter or if things won't go well, then it's dismissed by various posters as "speculation" "waffle" and needing a "crystal ball" to know what will happen so not worth considering. But none of these defences are used when someone says things will go back to normal and restrictions will never be needed again.

It's fine to not want to think about anything except the best case scenario, but why bother top engage in a discussion if you're going to dismiss anything except the best case?

El_Duderino 09 · 08-03-2021 04:11PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

Yeah there’s an obsession of restrictions next winter, it’s like they are hoping there is. iMO lockdowns will be over once vaccinated. Some people don’t want to let that go.

I’ll never eat waffles again, this thread has put me off them :pac:

I certainly don't want restrictions next winter. But that doesn't mean I discount the possibility of them happening. It's a matter of distinguishing between what I want to happen from the reality of the possibilities of what might happen. And at the moment we don't know whether things will go to the best case scenario or not.

Plumbthedepths · 08-03-2021 04:16PM

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

I was told to "get over" what happened this Christmas just gone, as if it was irrelevant.

Lads I get that you're reluctant to consider anything except the best case scenario. It's clear that's what's happening because you're taking no issue with people speculating or pretending to know things you want to believe (best case scenario where things will go back to normal in the summer and remain normal) but when I suggest that we don't actually know whether things will be great in winter or if things won't go well, then it's dismissed by various posters as "speculation" "waffle" and needing a "crystal ball" to know what will happen so not worth considering. But none of these defences are used when someone says things will go back to normal and restrictions will never be needed again.

It's fine to not want to think about anything except the best case scenario, but why bother top engage in a discussion if you're going to dismiss anything except the best case?

My only suggestion to you is to try to learn a little pandemic history. They don't last forever, people move on.
As for Christmas not discussing other than to say locking down people and depriving them of socialisation for 6 weeks and then reopening with the caveat of closing again less than a month later. I'm amazed people were shocked at what happened.
Nothing further to say about it.

Micky 32 · 08-03-2021 04:23PM

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

I certainly don't want restrictions next winter. But that doesn't mean I discount the possibility of them happening. It's a matter of distinguishing between what I want to happen from the reality of the possibilities of what might happen. And at the moment we don't know whether things will go to the best case scenario or not.

Yes but the data emerging suggests that once the masses are inoculated restrictions are unlikely to continue going forward, by next autumn/winter there won’t be too many people getting sick especially if it’s true about the transmission cut by 60/70%. We should know more about that soon when we get more data.

El_Duderino 09 · 08-03-2021 04:28PM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

My only suggestion to you is to try to learn a little pandemic history. They don't last forever, people move on.
As for Christmas not discussing other than to say locking down people and depriving them of socialisation for 6 weeks and then reopening with the caveat of closing again less than a month later. I'm amazed people were shocked at what happened.
Nothing further to say about it.

Have you mistaken me for someone who suggested this pandemic will last forever or that people will not go back to normal?

PTH2009 · 08-03-2021 04:35PM

When we do reopen we don't need big mouths like Leo coming out saying stuff again like 'another full lockdown could be weeks away' etc

Kermit.de.frog · 08-03-2021 04:39PM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

As for Christmas not discussing other than to say locking down people and depriving them of socialisation for 6 weeks and then reopening with the caveat of closing again less than a month later.

The price of Christmas is where we are now as you well know because you were warned in advance, even by the govt.

08-03-2021 04:39PM

Best case and worst case scenarios. I can Google too and am well aware of the challenges ahead. For me considering a situation where the virus mutates to such an extent that it evades the vaccines and we are in and out of lockdown is just......I can't. It's something I can discuss intellectually but I can't dwell on that outcome.

Instead I focus on being positive restrictions will ease late this year to such an extent that our lives are almost normal. In 2022 we will see a return to 2019 life.

El_Duderino 09 · 08-03-2021 04:41PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

Yes but the data emerging suggests that once the masses are inoculated restrictions are unlikely to continue going forward, by next autumn/winter there won’t be too many people getting sick especially if it’s true about the transmission cut by 60/70%. We should know more about that soon when we get more data.

You're extrapolating too much from the data we have. The data doesn't say anything about restrictions likelihood, it's about transmissions and hospitalisations and deaths, for countries while in lockdown conditions.

When you say that "by next autumn/winter there won’t be too many people getting sick. What exactly is "too many" and do you think your "too many" is the same as Micheal Martin's too many?

Fact is that I doubt you and MM would agree on the meaning of "too many" and we don't know how it will work out when most adults are vaccinated in winter and we don't have any restrictions. Maybe it will be fine and the relevant numbers will stay low. Maybe it won't.

El_Duderino 09 · 08-03-2021 04:42PM

PTH2009 wrote: »

When we do reopen we don't need big mouths like Leo coming out saying stuff again like 'another full lockdown could be weeks away' etc

When did he say that?

El_Duderino 09 · 08-03-2021 04:45PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Best case and worst case scenarios. I can Google too and am well aware of the challenges ahead. For me considering a situation where the virus mutates to such an extent that it evades the vaccines and we are in and out of lockdown is just......I can't. It's something I can discuss intellectually but I can't dwell on that outcome.

Instead I focus on being positive restrictions will ease late this year to such an extent that our lives are almost normal. In 2022 we will see a return to 2019 life.

That's fine. It really is fine. Do whatever helps to get you through this tough time.

But why go to a thread dedicated to discussing the situation if you can only intellectually consider one of the possible outcomes?

Plumbthedepths · 08-03-2021 04:45PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The price of Christmas is where we are now as you well know because you were warned in advance, even by the govt.

Nphet bounced the government into a 6 week closure 9 weeks before Christmas. It was beyond stupid and neither you or anyone else will convince me otherwise.
As I said to the other poster. I'm discussing it no further.

JDD · 08-03-2021 04:48PM

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Have you mistaken me for someone who suggested this pandemic will last forever or that people will not go back to normal?

Tell me this though, what makes you think that we will have restrictions next winter?

A. Do you expect that, come October, a good chunk of the population will yet be offered a vaccine?

Or

B. If they are offered a vaccine, do you think a good chunk will not take it up?

Or

C. In a situation where 80%+ of the country is vaccinated, do you foresee that the virus will continue to circulate among the unvaccinated population (which will majority be under-18s) entailing hospitalisations to the point that restrictions will need to be introduced?

Or

D. Do you think that the virus will continue to circulate among both the vaccinated and unvaccinated entailing hospitalisations from both cohorts to the point that restrictions will need to be introduced?

Or

E. If it is none of the above, are you basing your middle-case/worst-case scenario on vaccine resistant variants?

Just interested. I don't think I'm immediately going to a best-case scenario. Everything that has happened so far, apart from the ****show that is the vaccine supply, has been telegraphed a mile off to all but the most blinkered. I'm wondering why now - after researching the vaccines and possibility of variants - that what I see as a realistic end to this is considered the best case scenario. I feel my view is very much grounded in reality, but I'm open to being educated.

08-03-2021 04:49PM

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

That's fine. It really is fine. Do whatever helps to get you through this tough time.

But why go to a thread dedicated to discussing the situation if you can only intellectually consider one of the possible outcomes?

I can discuss worse case outcomes without dwelling or believing they may happen.

How are you finding it all El_Dude?

francogarbanzo · 08-03-2021 04:55PM

gozunda wrote: »

Wow abusive relationship infograhic - we've reached new heights :rolleyes:

Chsxt not this ****e again. Bar the extensive hyperbole in that - eg "make it illegal to leave your house except to exercise, buy groceries, or for medical reasons" That's simply bs. You can leave your house for work and for a long list of other reasons. Of course there's been restrictions- we're in the midst of a pandemic - and still mopping up after the fun and frolics of Christmas. Our restrictions have been less than the UK but noooooo we're the worst in the world and its neeeeever going to end!

There is no level zero because that means we're back to normal with covid at worst existing as a background disease which will be primarilly controlled by vaccination

So yeah even more desperate doom and gloom and wailing we're in permanent lockdown'!

Go on then. Refute it.

El_Duderino 09 · 08-03-2021 05:06PM

JDD wrote: »

Tell me this though, what makes you think that we will have restrictions next winter?

A. Do you expect that, come October, a good chunk of the population will yet be offered a vaccine?

Or

B. If they are offered a vaccine, do you think a good chunk will not take it up?

Or

C. In a situation where 80%+ of the country is vaccinated, do you foresee that the virus will continue to circulate among the unvaccinated population (which will majority be under-18s) entailing hospitalisations to the point that restrictions will need to be introduced?

Or

D. Do you think that the virus will continue to circulate among both the vaccinated and unvaccinated entailing hospitalisations from both cohorts to the point that restrictions will need to be introduced?

Or

E. If it is none of the above, are you basing your middle-case/worst-case scenario on vaccine resistant variants?

Just interested. I don't think I'm immediately going to a best-case scenario. Everything that has happened so far, apart from the ****show that is the vaccine supply, has been telegraphed a mile off to all but the most blinkered. I'm wondering why now - after researching the vaccines and possibility of variants - that what I see as a realistic end to this is considered the best case scenario. I feel my view is very much grounded in reality, but I'm open to being educated.

The questions are phrased to suggest you only want an answer to one but I'll give my best answer to each one.

A. Yes - a good chunk isn't very specific but, yes, a good chunk will be vaccinated by October.
B. I suppose there will be a cohort who will refuse it or be lazy/disorganised/drag their feet about getting it. Hard to know how large that cohort will be. Some countries suggest 30% might refuse and research suggests the number is much lower in Ireland. I don't suppose we know whether we will have given it to the willing people by October and we can start chasing those who are reluctant or not.
C. As it stands, we won't have 80% of the country vaccinated by next winter. We might have 80% of the adult population vaccinated by next winter. But the answer you the question is: I don't know. Do you know? 80% of the adult population is about 64% of the total population. That's great but will it be enough to allow no restrictions and keep deaths low? I don't know. Do you know?
D Yes it will continue to circulate amongst the vaccinated and unvaccinated, to varying degrees. Whether that will result in being able to not reimpose restrictions is literally the question I've said I don't know the answer to.
E. We don't know what will happen with mutations. They are an unknown element in the equation. Any mutations might be fine, they might not be fine. Do you know whether there will be mutations or what will happen with mutations?

El_Duderino 09 · 08-03-2021 05:10PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I can discuss worse case outcomes without dwelling or believing they may happen.

How are you finding it all El_Dude?

You literally said you can't consider some of the bad situations. And that's fine. I just don't get why you would go to a thread which is about considering the options and not just the good outcomes.

I'm doing alright, thanks for asking. I suppose i have headroom to consider the outcomes i want to happen and the outcomes I don't want to happen. I'm mostly just curious about what will actually happen and that's why i try to separate the things i do and don't want to happen from the things that can and can't happen and their likelihoods.

08-03-2021 05:23PM

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

You literally said you can't consider some of the bad situations. And that's fine. I just don't get why you would go to a thread which is about considering the options and not just the good outcomes.

I'm doing alright, thanks for asking. I suppose i have headroom to consider the outcomes i want to happen and the outcomes I don't want to happen. I'm mostly just curious about what will actually happen and that's why i try to separate the things i do and don't want to happen from the things that can and can't happen and their likelihoods.

Curiosity about others mostly and what they think. I'm especially interested in how others are finding the pandemic. It's impact is different depending on personal circumstance, outlook, and especially 'inlook'. It's brought some people to their knees and lifted others up.

08-03-2021 05:25PM

This thread is just one person obsessively responding to anybody who will give him an argument

growleaves · 08-03-2021 05:25PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Curiosity about others mostly and what they think. I'm especially interested in how others are finding the pandemic. It's impact is different depending on personal circumstance, outlook, and especially 'inlook'. It's brought some people to their knees and lifted others up.

Life is personal

El_Duderino 09 · 08-03-2021 05:27PM

AdamD wrote: »

This thread is just one person obsessively responding to anybody who will give him an argument

Ginger n' Lemon hasn't posted in a few days but Micky has taken over their slot.

SilentGreenx32 · 08-03-2021 05:28PM

AdamD wrote: »

This thread is just one person obsessively responding to anybody who will give him an argument

Exactly. Arguing for arguments sake.

El_Duderino 09 · 08-03-2021 05:32PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Curiosity about others mostly and what they think. I'm especially interested in how others are finding the pandemic. It's impact is different depending on personal circumstance, outlook, and especially 'inlook'. It's brought some people to their knees and lifted others up.

Has it lifted some people up? In what ways?

How are you finding it?

When will it all end?

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