When will it all end?

Nqp15hhu · 08-03-2021 08:12AM

Already seeing news articles about Irish limited vaccines affecting us in NI. I was worried this would be the next excuse.

francogarbanzo · 08-03-2021 08:42AM

Deeper Blue wrote: »

Let me guess, ones that haven't been discovered yet that'll render the vaccines useless?

Change the record, I'm bored of that one.

Why do you have to get a flu shot every year?

Chawosfski · 08-03-2021 09:07AM

bucketybuck wrote: »

Which comes back to the point that certain posters couldn't wrap their heads around a few days ago.

When covid is done there will be other public health threats, and lockdowns have now been normalised as a way to deal with them.

Imo that will depend on lockdowns elsewhere

We'll hardly be going it alone with lockdowns

PowerToWait · 08-03-2021 09:14AM

Dickie10 wrote: »

people are getting desperate for gloom now if they think restrictions will ever come back in after mid june. ask yourself this, can you see France, Germany etc shutting businesses and schools because there afraid of flu from novemeber -april each winter? some people need a chat with themselves. yes when britain open on june 21 we will be very close behind, do people honestly think there will be border checkpoints by Gardai or PSNI in June? id say in 2 weeks you could go back and forth easily if you wanted. If pubs and hotels are open as normal in Armagh, Derry, Belfast etc, there will be a tailback each friday evening going into the north for the weekend from the republic, same with mainland britain. i will head for Ascot or Goodwood in summer if crowds are not back at racing here.

13 minutes before you posted this you were waffling on about King Tony locking us down until The end of August. You’re fond of the drama. Btw, calling Covid the flu makes you look like an idiot.

topdecko · 08-03-2021 09:23AM

Looks like electric picnic going ahead so that heralds a return to normality!! Mind you the only people on planet earth who think that will happen are the organisers of electric picnic.

aido79 · 08-03-2021 09:51AM

Mr. Karate wrote: »

Power and Complete Control over us.

Ok I'll humour your conspiracy theory for a minute against my better judgement.
How does the government benefit from complete control over us for the next few months until the vaccine takes effect?

bucketybuck · 08-03-2021 09:52AM

aido79 wrote: »

I just can't understand this way of thinking. Why do you believe the government wants to lock us down? How does it benefit them?

It doesn't, but then locking down for the past 9 months doesn't benefit them either so clearly there are other factors in play.

Dickie10 · 08-03-2021 10:01AM

topdecko wrote: »

Looks like electric picnic going ahead so that heralds a return to normality!! Mind you the only people on planet earth who think that will happen are the organisers of electric picnic.

ploughing is supposed to be still on cards to go ahead too. surely you get hard to see it.

El_Duderino 09 · 08-03-2021 10:04AM

Mr. Karate wrote: »

I think its more of a lack of faith on the Govt's part. They certainly carry on like they would leave us in permanent lockdown if they could.

Desperate for doom and gloom or thinking the government will leave us in permanent lockdown.

Maybe it’s just because nobody knows what will happen next winter when most of the adults are vaccinated and restrictions have been lifted. Maybe it will be fine with very low hospitalisations and deaths, maybe those numbers will be high enough to need restrictions.

The question is whether this whole thing will be over this year or not so it’s not normal to refuse to even think about the second hall of the question.

El_Duderino 09 · 08-03-2021 10:08AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I can't imagine that scenario because I wouldn't function if I did.

Ok.

Wanting to consider it or not, doesn’t have any impact on whether it will happen or not. If you don’t want to think about the topic of the thread then that’s fair enough.

El_Duderino 09 · 08-03-2021 10:12AM

GoneHome wrote: »

You are actually pointing out the reality of it, I can't see the country going back to any kind of normality until at the earliest September but I thin realistically it'll be this time next year.

Those are probably the two scenarios. If things go great we could be back to total normality this year or if the winter goes wrong with new variants or whatever, and we need restrictions or even a lockdown, then it will be this time next year when we emerge.

It’s the topic of the thread so I don’t see any point in ignoring the scenario which I don’t want to happen.

HansKroenke · 08-03-2021 10:38AM

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ireland-to-have-highest-debt-per-head-in-europe-this-year-1.4503652

Ireland to have highest debt per head in Europe this year

Ireland is forecast to have the highest government debt per head of population in Europe this year, as the impact of Covid-19-related borrowings pushes the burden on each individual in the State up by almost €4,000 in 2021.

The figures also show that Ireland has experienced the sharpest increase in debt per head over the past year, up 9 per cent, or €3,919, on 2020.

It is forecast to rise by a further €1,509 per person in 2022.

The second-largest increase is France, where the debt burden is to rise by €3,013 per head of population this year. As a comparison, debt per capita is expected to rise by €2,158 per person in the UK this year, and by €954 in Germany.

This is debt which of course the public will not accept increased taxes or any sort of austerity to pay for, and of course the government are aware that introducing austerity or increased taxation will set out the red carpet for SF to be in the next government. While all can accept it is the right policy to borrow so long as society is closed (whether you agree it should be closed or not), due to the extra increase in borrowing by Ireland, we will not be in a position to wait out covid longer than other EU countries.

Meaning, if we see other countries in the EU and also the UK moving ahead with reopening and generating tax revenue, it will not be very smart of us in Ireland to keep up a policy of paying businesses to stay closed and people not to work by borrowing. For example, Germany has a 5 step plan to ease all restrictions, as does the UK. For whatever reason, Ireland has decided not to communicate its plan to the public but I think it is a good guide to follow what these other countries are doing to consider how soon we will be fully reopen.

aido79 · 08-03-2021 10:44AM

bucketybuck wrote: »

It doesn't, but then locking down for the past 9 months doesn't benefit them either so clearly there are other factors in play.

Such as the health system?
From the very start of this the government has been very upfront in saying that 80% of people will only have a mild illness if they contract covid19. It's been known all along that there is a high survival rate and that probably only 5% of people will be hospitalised. The thing they have been trying to avoid is a situation where due to the way covid19 spreads we have a situation where 5% of the population requires hospital treatment in a very short of time.
To put some figures on that there are approximately 700,000 people in Ireland over 65 years of age. 5% of that is 35,000. The health service just doesn't have the capacity to cater for this number of people with a short space of time so lockdowns are necessary to slow the spread of covid19, not to eliminate in it, just to slow the spread of it.
This isn't rocket science and a majority of the population seem to understand it, even if most people are fed up with it at present, but there are a minority of people for which it just doesn't sink in and can only think of how it affects them and couldn't care less about vulnerable people dying.

What other factors do you think are in play? Is it all a conspiracy or plandemic/scandemic?

Irish Stones · 08-03-2021 10:52AM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

I don't remember it being said we were to have vaccines before the end of last Summer. The time I seen them hoped for was September/October.

But last year they did say that this thing would have been over soon. At the very beginning, this virus would have even never got to Europe, then it got here, but it would have been short lived.
One of the most important economic newspaper even published an article in February 2020 where they said that the coronavirus wouldn't have had the least effect on the global economy and it would have gone nearly unnoticed.
Wow!

Irish Stones · 08-03-2021 11:13AM

Tazz T wrote: »

Vaccines are preventing deaths and serious illness.

A proper vaccine should prevent people from being infected in the first place, not keeping them healthier than an ICU patient.
All vaccines so far given to the world population along human history have kept people safe and clear from the virus. These vaccines seem to work differently.

JDD · 08-03-2021 11:29AM

Irish Stones wrote: »

A proper vaccine should prevent people from being infected in the first place, not keeping them healthier than an ICU patient.
All vaccines so far given to the world population along human history have kept people safe and clear from the virus. These vaccines seem to work differently.

I'm okay, for the moment, with a vaccine that prevents hospitalisation and death.

I understand that the current batch of vaccines are not a complete guarantee that I will not get covid. I also understand that they are not a complete guarantee that I will not pass it on to someone else in the unlikely event that I am infected while vaccinated.

Yes, I would like a vaccine that prevents infection. But for the moment, something that open the country back to normal is absolutely fine with me. There are hundreds of covid vaccine's in testing and trials. I fully expect in a short number of years we will have a better vaccine that fully prevents infection.

Irish Stones · 08-03-2021 11:31AM

JDD wrote: »

I fully expect in a short number of years we will have a better vaccine that fully prevents infection.

That is scary!
It means that unless they develop a "real" vaccine, we won't live a normal life again. And maybe even after that!
Scary!

El_Duderino 09 · 08-03-2021 11:41AM

Irish Stones wrote: »

That is scary!
It means that unless they develop a "real" vaccine, we won't live a normal life again. And maybe even after that!
Scary!

That depends on how the winter goes. If the winter goes fine then there's no big problem. If it doesn't go well then we need to start looking at other solutions.

Plumbthedepths · 08-03-2021 11:42AM

Irish Stones wrote: »

That is scary!
It means that unless they develop a "real" vaccine, we won't live a normal life again. And maybe even after that!
Scary!

Don't worry economic reality will get us back to normality even if a vaccine doesn't.

Micky 32 · 08-03-2021 11:43AM

Irish Stones wrote: »

That is scary!
It means that unless they develop a "real" vaccine, we won't live a normal life again. And maybe even after that!
Scary!

Scary ? despite current vaccines making you very unlikely ending up in hospital and dying along with possible 60/70% transmission reduction ? Give over with the dramatics :rolleyes:

jackryan34 · 08-03-2021 11:44AM

Irish Stones wrote: »

That is scary!
It means that unless they develop a "real" vaccine, we won't live a normal life again. And maybe even after that!
Scary!

Question if anyone can answer

If your fully vaccinated and have your 2 doses and spend a long time with a confirmed covid case maskless do you have to self isolate for 2 weeks?

If you've had Covid recently, like under 2 months ago and spend a long time with a confirmed case maskless do you have to self isolate for 2 weeks?

CollectThat · 08-03-2021 11:46AM

Feel a lot of the doom and gloom about us never getting back to normal don't take into account financial considerations. There is no way we can afford to keep social distancing indefinitely, we can never afford to keep bringing restrictions in whenever cases/hospitalizations spike. The cost of this level 5 lockdown is €250 a week, we can' (and should not ) keep affording this. We will have to move on

JDD · 08-03-2021 11:48AM

Irish Stones wrote: »

That is scary!
It means that unless they develop a "real" vaccine, we won't live a normal life again. And maybe even after that!
Scary!

I don't quite understand. If we all get vaccinated, with the current vaccines (and without any vaccine resistant variants showing up) then the risk of getting covid is vastly reduced. In the unlikely event that you are infected, you probably won't even notice.

In the unlikely event you are infected, and you do develop symptoms, it is likely they will be mild, with no lingering after effects. In the extremely unlikely event you are infected, develop symptoms, and those symptoms become serious or have long lasting effects, well jaysus, you are extremely unlucky. But you could also be hit by a bus or lightening, so I wouldn't be losing too much sleep over it.

If you think people will accept restrictions, in any form, to prevent the tiny tiny amount of vaccinated people that might be hospitalised, then you are dreaming. In the absence of any vaccine resistant variants, we will go back to normal with the current approved vaccine program.

Tazz T · 08-03-2021 11:48AM

Irish Stones wrote: »

A proper vaccine should prevent people from being infected in the first place, not keeping them healthier than an ICU patient.
All vaccines so far given to the world population along human history have kept people safe and clear from the virus. These vaccines seem to work differently.

These aren't any different to previous vaccines. They do reduce the risk of infection, and the data we do have shows they do this quite well. They were developed much faster than traditional vaccines and the data isn't entirely there to show efficacy against new variants. In fact, there aren't many vaccines that provide 'sterilising immunity', which is what you're referring to.

Lots of vaccines don't guaranteed immunity from infection. A lot actually infect people with a less virulent form of infection - to prevent serious illness and death.

Micky 32 · 08-03-2021 11:50AM

CollectThat wrote: »

Feel a lot of the doom and gloom about us never getting back to normal don't take into account financial considerations. There is no way we can afford to keep social distancing indefinitely, we can never afford to keep bringing restrictions in whenever cases/hospitalizations spike. The cost of this level 5 lockdown is €250 a week, we can' (and should not ) keep affording this. We will have to move on

It’s unreal the amount of people who think this won’t end and that we’ll be SD for the rest of our lives.:pac:

Fast forward to say this day 12 months. The conversations on here will be a lot different

gozunda · 08-03-2021 11:51AM

Samsonsmasher wrote: »

Guaranteed they will try and lock us down and probably succeed because there will be cases and deaths and the majority even if they are presumably vaccinated will still go along with it.
I have no doubt it would happen. I met people wearing 2 masks in the park today. Wearing gloves. Rubbing sanitizer on their hands. In a park.

To quote another poster 'Even more desperate for doom and gloom or thinking the government will leave us in permanent lockdown'!

So because you've met people wearing masks and some gloves out - that's a sign that the government are going to keep us in lockdown forever :rolleyes:

Did you ever stop to think - that the person you saw out walking might just need to be a bit more cautious than the rest of us when out and about - maybe they have CF or Asthma?

ujjjjjjjjj wrote: »

Neurotic hysteria.....it is truly staggering what has happened to some people, watching a fella two nights ago walking a dog in an empty park wearing a mask.....I actually don't know what goes through their heads. Total and utter neurosis at this stage.

Well evidently the person wasn't alone if you there were watching him...

And again maybe just maybe people who do wear a mask out might just need to be a bit more cautious than the rest of us when out and about due to an underlying condition. Perhaps the individual didn't know how many people would be there - who feking knows. If someone wants to wear a mask for health reasons or otherwise - it's certainly none of anyones business other than their own.

JDD · 08-03-2021 11:53AM

Micky 32 wrote: »

It’s unreal the amount of people who think this won’t end and that we’ll be SD for the rest of our lives.:pac:

Fast forward to say this day 12 months. The conversations on here will be a lot different

I completely agree. People can't see beyond the end of their noses. I find that the same colleagues who last year couldn't get their heads around the fact that we wouldn't be back in the office in a few weeks are the same one who can't fathom us returning to normal before the end of the year.

Tchaikovsky · 08-03-2021 11:59AM

Micky 32 wrote: »

It’s unreal the amount of people who think this won’t end and that we’ll be SD for the rest of our lives.:pac:

Fast forward to say this day 12 months. The conversations on here will be a lot different

It's what we call in the mental health world "catastrophizing"

jackryan34 · 08-03-2021 12:03PM

JDD wrote: »

I don't quite understand. If we all get vaccinated, with the current vaccines (and without any vaccine resistant variants showing up) then the risk of getting covid is vastly reduced. In the unlikely event that you are infected, you probably won't even notice.

In the unlikely event you are infected, and you do develop symptoms, it is likely they will be mild, with no lingering after effects. In the extremely unlikely event you are infected, develop symptoms, and those symptoms become serious or have long lasting effects, well jaysus, you are extremely unlucky. But you could also be hit by a bus or lightening, so I wouldn't be losing too much sleep over it.

If you think people will accept restrictions, in any form, to prevent the tiny tiny amount of vaccinated people that might be hospitalised, then you are dreaming. In the absence of any vaccine resistant variants, we will go back to normal with the current approved vaccine program.

The 95% can be interpreted different ways

8/162 was the 95%

The Pfizer trial was basically

8/18000 infections vaccine trail

162/18000 placebo

Chances of getting pcr tested Covid was like 0.04 in vac people and 0.88 in placebo

99% you don't get pcr tested covid either way in that 2-3 months the trial went on

Its kind of why countries going zero covid have a plan b

JDD · 08-03-2021 12:13PM

jackryan34 wrote: »

The 95% can be interpreted different ways

8/162 was the 95%

The Pfizer trial was basically

8/18000 infections vaccine trail

162/18000 placebo

Chances of getting pcr tested Covid was like 0.04 in vac people and 0.88 in placebo

99% you don't get pcr tested covid either way in that 2-3 months the trial went on

Its kind of why countries going zero covid have a plan b

Well, remember those figures came during a period where most countries would have had varying amounts of restrictions in place. So you'd imagine that, in a scenario where there were no restrictions, the chances of testing positive for covid (whether placebo or vaccine) would be much higher.

That being said, once most of the population is vaccinated, that should act in the same way as restrictions do in preventing covid spread. So your figures will probably broadly stay correct - that is, you will remain highly unlikely to ever test positive for covid, and even less likely to be hospitalised while vaccinated. Winter or no winter, I can't see any restrictions remaining post-September 2021.

When will it all end?

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