When will it all end?

07-03-2021 08:01PM

thebiglad wrote: »

You have to look at relative populations - if we did 500k per day we'd be done in a week - its only over 18's after all.

Yeah yeah. They're at 23.3 million doses for 65 million people, we're at 493k for 5 million. They've done more than 3 times per capita and their rate is still more than double ours, the gap is widening, not narrowing.

Hellrazer wrote: »

I think its 2.2 million J&J vaccines are supposed to be allocated to Ireland before the end of March.

That would be a game changer if they were all delivered...actually it would probably be game over for Nphet.

It would be a game changer but I'll do a 50 quid bet with anyone who thinks that we'll have 2.2 million doses of a vaccine that we currently have zero of by the end of the month. For charity of course. I'd also offer to sell them some magic beans.

Elessar · 07-03-2021 08:07PM

Hellrazer wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/brainstorm/2021/0301/1199970-johnson-and-johnson-covid-19-vaccine/

This article says

That's a pain if its only 150k per month.

Yeah I think that rte report might be a bit mixed up. Believe me it would be common knowledge at this point if 2.2 million 1-shot vaccines would be due here in 3 weeks

https://www.thejournal.ie/explainer-johnson-and-johnson-vaccine-5369624-Mar2021/

thebiglad · 07-03-2021 08:16PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Yeah yeah. They're at 23.3 million doses for 65 million people, we're at 493k for 5 million. They've done more than 3 times per capita and their rate is still more than double ours, the gap is widening, not narrowing.

The important number is that they are at 40% of adults with 1st jab - the population to be vaccinated is not 65m - under 18's not to be counted, Scotland, Wales and NI citizens are not included in the English number.

I am not disputing that EU/Ireland are inefficient with the vaccine roll out and insist on a 2 jab approach despite evidence it is not necessary and the rate of 1st jab administered could therefore be increased.

Not confident when we hit 40%/50%/60% that they won't find another reason to maintain the restrictions - they are scared of their own shadow at this point and all the negative news over the last 12 months has enough of the population on edge that they'll not risk it.

Said before - they need to change the messaging as are English alongside the vaccination strategy.

ujjjjjjjjj · 07-03-2021 08:40PM

thebiglad wrote: »

The important number is that they are at 40% of adults with 1st jab - the population to be vaccinated is not 65m - under 18's not to be counted, Scotland, Wales and NI citizens are not included in the English number.

I am not disputing that EU/Ireland are inefficient with the vaccine roll out and insist on a 2 jab approach despite evidence it is not necessary and the rate of 1st jab administered could therefore be increased.

Not confident when we hit 40%/50%/60% that they won't find another reason to maintain the restrictions - they are scared of their own shadow at this point and all the negative news over the last 12 months has enough of the population on edge that they'll not risk it.

Said before - they need to change the messaging as are English alongside the vaccination strategy.

The need for a line in the sand and a defined end point (be that all over 65's, over 50's or even over 18's) needs to be discussed now.

I like BOJO's approach of 21st June being the end for all legal restrictions, there may be health advice after this date of course.

Ireland needs to have a line in the sand and a target date for all legal restrictions being lifted.......like the UK there can be caveats and conditions but while the UK population seems to be broadly happy now that the line in the sand is drawn the same can't be said for Ireland with a wider sense of disquiet about lockdown here.

Lundstram · 07-03-2021 08:42PM

It won't be the government's choice when we open up, once the UK reopen fully in June, that's game, set and match for the vast majority of Irish people adhering to restrictions. There will be a small cohort of diehards who will want the status quo so let them hide away indefinitely if they wish.

It's going to be a good summer.

El_Duderino 09 · 07-03-2021 08:44PM

Lundstram wrote: »

It won't be the government's choice when we open up, once the UK reopen fully in June, that's game, set and match for the vast majority of Irish people adhering to restrictions. There will be a small cohort of diehards who will want the status quo so let them hide away indefinitely if they wish.

It's going to be a good summer.

Yeah the summer will be great. The questions are about what will happen next winter and whether restriction will need to be reimposed or not.

eoinbn · 07-03-2021 08:51PM

HansKroenke wrote: »

If we hit 1m per month for April and May, as is projected, we'll have half the country vaccinated. Come June and July, we'll be there. Looking at how the UK is progressing as compared to its timeline, I have no reason not to be optimistic at this stage that we'll be roaring back to normal come the August Bank Holiday.

The Q1 and April targets will both be missed by some margin - Q1 because AZ are hopeless and April because the government have an unrealistic target. Hopefully by May we should be averaging over 1m doses a month. However that depends on a factory that has never produced an mRNA vaccine producing 400k vaccines a day. That is well within the max output of BioNtech's new plant but as we are learning every day with AZ there are no guarantees. The government will probably know in the next few weeks how many doses we can expect from Pfizer/BioNtech in April. It could vary from 300k to 500k. If it is far below the 500k mark then the numbers for May and June also come into question.

However even if we don't hit the Q2 target the country will be in a much better place by the end of May.

bucketybuck · 07-03-2021 08:52PM

Lundstram wrote: »

It won't be the government's choice when we open up, once the UK reopen fully in June, that's game, set and match for the vast majority of Irish people adhering to restrictions.

If only that was true, but the restrictions aren't just about people travelling more than 5km or not visiting their families, the worst of them involve businesses that simply are not allowed to open, and can legally be shut down by the guards for daring to open.

Simply not adhering to restrictions is easy and a lot of people are already doing that. Opening businesses in direct defiance of restrictions is another thing altogether, and unfortunately that is far more important than how many people travel 10k to the beach.

bucketybuck · 07-03-2021 08:57PM

eoinbn wrote: »

However even if we don't hit the Q2 target the country will be in a much better place by the end of May.

This is something that people seem to be forgetting, probably because the government don't seem to want to acknowledge it either.

I still see people referencing case numbers and numbers of people vaccinated by this or that date, but really those figures are unimportant.

If vaccines work and are given to vulnerable people, then deaths rates will fall long long before a majority of the population have been vaccinated. And if the death rates have flatlined then restrictions should be ended in line with that.

I couldn't give a **** how many people still aren't vaccinated if people are no longer dying from this virus and will have no patience for any chicken littles still scared and crying about the future.

Lundstram · 07-03-2021 09:03PM

bucketybuck wrote: »

If only that was true, but the restrictions aren't just about people travelling more than 5km or not visiting their families, the worst of them involve businesses that simply are not allowed to open, and can legally be shut down by the guards for daring to open.

Simply not adhering to restrictions is easy and a lot of people are already doing that. Opening businesses in direct defiance of restrictions is another thing altogether, and unfortunately that is far more important than how many people travel 10k to the beach.

We've already seen a number of businesses defying measures by opening up, they didn't have the majority of public support so there wasn't much fuss once they were closed again by Gardai. This will change big time in the summer, lots more will defy restrictions if indeed there is any in place but public support will be on their side this time.

Make no mistake about it, our reopening roadmap is pretty much the UK's.

It's all about deaths and hospital capacity, them numbers will be miniscule come June.

ujjjjjjjjj · 07-03-2021 09:04PM

bucketybuck wrote: »

If only that was true, but the restrictions aren't just about people travelling more than 5km or not visiting their families, the worst of them involve businesses that simply are not allowed to open, and can legally be shut down by the guards for daring to open.

Simply not adhering to restrictions is easy and a lot of people are already doing that. Opening businesses in direct defiance of restrictions is another thing altogether, and unfortunately that is far more important than how many people travel 10k to the beach.

Think the key thing is the government will have to grow a pair and just sideline NPHET..................

For me the big change is moving to end all legal restrictions and move to public health advice only. You can take it or leave it.

The government needs to rapidly put NPHET back into the health advice sphere......

ujjjjjjjjj · 07-03-2021 09:06PM

Lundstram wrote: »

We've already seen a number of businesses defying measures by opening up, they didn't have the majority of public support so there wasn't much fuss once they were closed again by Gardai. This will change big time in the summer, lots more will defy restrictions if indeed there is any in place but public support will be on their side this time.

Make no mistake about it, our reopening roadmap is pretty much the UK's.

It's all about deaths and hospital capacity, them numbers will be miniscule come June.

Thank goodness for once for NI - NI will force things to move along here as it's untenable to have huge differences in restrictions either side of the border.

drunkmonkey · 07-03-2021 09:18PM

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Yeah the summer will be great. The questions are about what will happen next winter and whether restriction will need to be reimposed or not.

Going by one of the headlines in the UK today there might be a cause for concern in winter, as all the circulating viruses have been stopped there's a chance we have now lost immunity to a host of them.
'‘Population immunity’ to flu and other viruses may have been impacted by Covid health measures, government adviser says"
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/covid-summer-holiday-winter-susan-hopkins-b1813564.html

The law of unintended consequences springs to mind. The flu is now a novel virus when it returns:(

eoinbn · 07-03-2021 09:24PM

bucketybuck wrote: »

This is something that people seem to be forgetting, probably because the government don't seem to want to acknowledge it either.

I still see people referencing case numbers and numbers of people vaccinated by this or that date, but really those figures are unimportant.

If vaccines work and are given to vulnerable people, then deaths rates will fall long long before a majority of the population have been vaccinated. And if the death rates have flatlined then restrictions should be ended in line with that.

I couldn't give a **** how many people still aren't vaccinated if people are no longer dying from this virus and will have no patience for any chicken littles still scared and crying about the future.

What you aren't considering there is variants. If we open up fully with millions of people still unvaccinated then it will likely spread like wildfire increasing the chance of variants. We obviously can't stay locked up forever but it might be wise to be cautious for a few extra weeks.
We will have a lot more information from Israel, the UK and the US by the time it comes to make those decisions. The US opening up will be very varied so it could be the most useful to watch.

bucketybuck · 07-03-2021 09:26PM

drunkmonkey wrote: »

The law of unintended consequences springs to mind. The flu is now a novel virus when it returns:(

Which comes back to the point that certain posters couldn't wrap their heads around a few days ago.

When covid is done there will be other public health threats, and lockdowns have now been normalised as a way to deal with them.

07-03-2021 09:27PM

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Going by one of the headlines in the UK today there might be a cause for concern in winter, as all the circulating viruses have been stopped there's a chance we have now lost immunity to a host of them.
'‘Population immunity’ to flu and other viruses may have been impacted by Covid health measures, government adviser says"
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/covid-summer-holiday-winter-susan-hopkins-b1813564.html

The law of unintended consequences springs to mind. The flu is now a novel virus when it returns:(

The flu changes every year and some years they get the prediction slightly wrong when making vaccines which leads to more deaths than usual. That really reads like someone looking for any kind of doom and gloom to hang their hats on. If legal restrictions are gone by the winter but public transport (and I've a feeling there'll be an underlying reluctance to to mix as much once everyone lets loose over summer) is still even 20% below capacity compared to before that'll keep flu cases down a lot. Some people will be considerate and wear masks when they have sniffles which along with improved handwashing will keep flu down a bit.

BringBackMick · 07-03-2021 09:32PM

the next thing that will surface is that we are facing into a deadly winter 2021/2022 as other flu and respiratory viruses spike and take advantage of our reduced immunity.

Expect this to be a major player in prolonging the unravelling of restrictions.

Micky 32 · 07-03-2021 09:36PM

bucketybuck wrote: »

Which comes back to the point that certain posters couldn't wrap their heads around a few days ago.

When covid is done there will be other public health threats, and lockdowns have now been normalised as a way to deal with them.

No certain posters have more cop on not to think such a doom and gloom scenario is going to happen. Businesses closing every winter and 5km limits is pure fantasy because of the flu.

Micky 32 · 07-03-2021 09:41PM

BringBackMick wrote: »

the next thing that will surface is that we are facing into a deadly winter 2021/2022 as other flu and respiratory viruses spike and take advantage of our reduced immunity.

Expect this to be a major player in prolonging the unravelling of restrictions.

Does flu immunity really wane that much? I’m out and about a lot and haven’t caught the flu in 10 years.

drunkmonkey · 07-03-2021 09:56PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

Does flu immunity really wane that much? I’m out and about a lot and haven’t caught the flu in 10 years.

You could have been asymptomatic spreading your flu all over the place.

Micky 32 · 07-03-2021 09:59PM

drunkmonkey wrote: »

You could have been asymptomatic spreading your flu all over the place.

Lol yeah that must be it. Asymptomatic flu is quite rare. The hysteria is becoming hilarious.:D

drunkmonkey · 07-03-2021 10:12PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

Lol yeah that must be it. Asymptomatic flu is quite rare. The hysteria is becoming hilarious.:D

CDC says it's 50% the same as Covid. :eek:

Micky 32 · 07-03-2021 10:19PM

drunkmonkey wrote: »

CDC says it's 50% the same as Covid. :eek:

I have read conflicting results for that and being asymptomatic every year for 10 years seems unlikely, of course vaccinated people may have benefited me... Anyhow if you want to hide under your bed to avoid the flu be my guest.

HBC08 · 07-03-2021 10:20PM

Hellrazer wrote: »

I think its 2.2 million J&J vaccines are supposed to be allocated to Ireland before the end of March.

That would be a game changer if they were all delivered...actually it would probably be game over for Nphet.

Ireland is not getting 2.2m doses of a vaccine thats not even approved in the next 3 weeks.
We won't be getting 2 million doses of all the other vaccines combined either before the end of March.

No need for the personal abuse

Mr. Karate · 07-03-2021 10:25PM

bucketybuck wrote: »

Which comes back to the point that certain posters couldn't wrap their heads around a few days ago.

When covid is done there will be other public health threats, and lockdowns have now been normalised as a way to deal with them.

The sad reality too many Irish willingly go along with this [even considering throwing your mask away once your vaccinated is enough to make these Covidologists go nuts] that its only a matter of time before the Govt tries this again. And these clowns will go along with it again.

drunkmonkey · 07-03-2021 10:37PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

I have read conflicting results for that and being asymptomatic every year for 10 years seems unlikely, of course vaccinated people may have benefited me... Anyhow if you want to hide under your bed to avoid the flu be my guest.

Flu doesn't worry me in the slightest neither does Covid but I can see some people freaking about it. Tony has form when it comes to hyping it up.

papu · 07-03-2021 10:38PM

Mr. Karate wrote: »

The sad reality too many Irish willingly go along with this [even considering throwing your mask away once your vaccinated is enough to make these Covidologists go nuts] that its only a matter of time before the Govt tries this again. And these clowns will go along with it again.

Tries what again, a global pandemic?

07-03-2021 10:47PM

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Yeah the summer will be great. The questions are about what will happen next winter and whether restriction will need to be reimposed or not.

Why do you think this?

markodaly · 07-03-2021 10:49PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

Well it’s easy to predict the posters who will get defensive if the words ‘misery merchants’is ever mentioned. Quite predictable

Lol admit to what? I’m not wrong at all and stand by it. It’s just you live in your one dimensional deluded world it seems and believe any poll that’s published. Real life in my experience makes your poll quite flawed.

You’ll find that ‘most’ of my posts don’t begin and end with ‘misery merchants’, unlike your exaggerated “ a few weeks” seem to be your favourite qoute.

That is Trump talk to be fair.

Many of your posts are needlessly aggressive, whereby anyone who disagrees with you gets some semi-personal jab.

As per the polls, they are not my polls, but polls carried out by polling agencies, which appear to have a pattern, that most people are happy with the current level of restrictions. I guess, they must all be wrong and you with your wet finger in the air, must be right.

markodaly · 07-03-2021 10:53PM

Lundstram wrote: »

It won't be the government's choice when we open up, once the UK reopen fully in June, that's game, set and match for the vast majority of Irish people adhering to restrictions. There will be a small cohort of diehards who will want the status quo so let them hide away indefinitely if they wish.

It's going to be a good summer.

In regards the UK government, why would you trust them more than our own?
Id imagine that restrictions will be eased this summer, but completely? Nope

For example, it was Mardi Gras in Sydney, NSW last weekend. There has not been a local case there in over 5 weeks, in Sydney, yet the traditional parade was cancelled as it usually attracts a crowd of over 100,000 people.

Why mention this? Feb 2020 normal is a long way away yet.

When will it all end?

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