When will it all end?

Micky 32 · 05-03-2021 09:21PM

Scotty # wrote: »

I sincerely hope you are right but unfortunately for you every health expert in the world is saying that vaccines are not the silver bullet people think they are.

I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

They have already been proven to work. See my above post also.

Unknown Soldier · 05-03-2021 09:24PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

They have already been proven to work. See my above post also.

Lots of things have been "proven" in the last 12 months, but here we are.

seansouth36 · 05-03-2021 09:27PM

Deleted User wrote: »

That's true. You can't compare today's world with yesterday's world really. But my point about religious belief was more to do with how people viewed death.

Not sure if you have ever watched Adam Curtis' documentaries; he has some interesting things to say about how the world has changed since then. You may enjoy this one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k6-IuHtthcM

Micky 32 · 05-03-2021 09:28PM

Unknown Soldier wrote: »

Lots of things have been "proven" in the last 12 months, but here we are.

Well if you choose to ignore scientific facts to suit your own narrative there’s not much i can do for you.

05-03-2021 09:28PM

seansouth36 wrote: »

Not sure if you have ever watched Adam Curtis' documentaries; he has some interesting things to say about how the world has changed since then. You may enjoy this one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k6-IuHtthcM

Thanks. I'll check it out.

Scotty # · 05-03-2021 09:29PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

They have already been proven to work. See my above post also.

I think the early signs are hopeful but that's a far cry from 'proven'. Why aren't Israel's numbers falling through the floor? They've been level or sightly increasing the last week or so.

As I said, I do hope you are right!

seansouth36 · 05-03-2021 09:31PM

Sobit1964 wrote: »

Yeah he was a fear merchant then who got it all wrong too:

Dr. Fauci claimed that AIDS might be transmissible by “routine close contact.” (May 5, 1983, issue of the Journal of the American Medical Association)

He has a long history of making dubious statements based on nothing and then reversing them later to keep his mug in front of cameras.

To be fair, no one knew much about AIDs in 1983; the famous Princess Diana photo that shattered many of the stereotypes about physical contact was taken in 1987. Good scientists change their opinions based on new data - if you can name someone in 1983 who fully understood AIDs and predicted it would become a manageable disease, please do tell.

Tazz T · 05-03-2021 09:33PM

Israel's infections are plateauing due to opening up, but deaths are continuing to fall exponentially. Vaccines are preventing deaths and serious illness.

seansouth36 · 05-03-2021 09:35PM

Scotty # wrote: »

I think the early signs are hopeful but that's a far cry from 'proven'. Why aren't Israel's numbers falling through the floor? They've been level or sightly increasing the last week or so.

As I said, I do hope you are right!

Unfortunately Israel has a large cohort of maniacs (Orthodox Jews) who have never played by the rules and have an apocalyptic view of the world. Having lived in Israel for four years, I saw first hand how hated that group are, particularly among Ashkenazi Jews. While Israel's numbers are rising, the numbers of ICU/hospitalizations/deaths among vulnerable/elderly are falling.

Micky 32 · 05-03-2021 09:36PM

Scotty # wrote: »

I think the early signs are hopeful but that's a far cry from 'proven'. Why aren't Israel's numbers falling through the floor? They've been level or sightly increasing the last week or so.

As I said, I do hope you are right!

There’s a lot of factors involved there. One factor was there was twice the infection rate with people who just had the injection thinking they were safe in the first week. They let their guard down.

There’s also evidence from the UK the effectiveness of the vaccine coming to light also.

05-03-2021 09:48PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

There’s a lot of factors involved there. One factor was there was twice the infection rate with people who just had the injection thinking they were safe in the first week. They let their guard down.

There’s also evidence from the UK the effectiveness of the vaccine coming to light also.

The big issue is cases. If the obsession with cases continues post-vaccination then the country will be in and out of lockdown indefinitely. It won't matter how effective the vaccines are if cases continue to be taken into account. The Isle of Man is after locking down for a third time because of a rise in case numbers. The point is that a precedent has been set and can be used over and over again.

Frozen Veg · 05-03-2021 10:05PM

The most vulnerable are almost all vaccinated now. Time to start attempting to get life back towards some normality now.

The only Risk now is alternative strains, it's up to the government to control that at the borders.

Micky 32 · 05-03-2021 10:09PM

Deleted User wrote: »

The big issue is cases. If the obsession with cases continues post-vaccination then the country will be in and out of lockdown indefinitely. It won't matter how effective the vaccines are if cases continue to be taken into account. The Isle of Man is after locking down for a third time because of a rise in case numbers. The point is that a precedent has been set and can be used over and over again.

If people stop having symptoms post vaccination you might find people getting tested numbers plummet. Also looking like transmission could be reduced by 60/70%.

05-03-2021 10:12PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

If people stop having symptoms post vaccination you might find people getting tested numbers plummet. Also looking like transmission could be reduced by 60/70%.

That could happen, but a lot of perfectly healthy people have been getting tested since March. And then there's the problem of people being required to get tested for their job or to go on holidays. That could cause the case numbers to rise. A move away from the obsession with case numbers is what's required.

Micky 32 · 05-03-2021 10:14PM

Deleted User wrote: »

A move away from the obsession with case numbers is what's required.

Oh i totally agree.

05-03-2021 10:43PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

Oh i totally agree.

We'll know whether cases will continue to be taken into account soon enough in because the UK, Israel, and the UAE should reach herd immunity in the next few months. And the US won't be too far behind either. Of the four I think the US is the most likely to move away from case numbers because of the make up of the country. Neil Oliver recently described it a country that is made up of many different countries. We can see that in the approaches adopted by various states such as South Dakota, Texas, Florida, Alabama, among others.

Gradius · 05-03-2021 10:55PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

Unfortunately for you the facts are against you. The vaccines work end of story. Once populations receive it things will rapidly change. Nothing to argue about really.

We’ll see if you are still banging the misery drum in 9 months.

You are like others on here. Comparing last year vs this year when there were no vaccines approved, huge difference.

Let me tell you as one internet stranger to another, I hope everything is back to normal the quicker the better.

However, if this shyte version of life is still basically the same come Christmas, quoting you back to yourself with your 100% certainty will be a micro-pleasure in the apocalypse.

So, thanks for making it a win-win

Micky 32 · 05-03-2021 11:01PM

Gradius wrote: »

However, if this shyte version of life is still basically the same come Christmas, quoting you back to yourself with your 100% certainty will be a micro-pleasure in the apocalypse.

So, thanks for making it a win-win

So if you’re right would you like a medal? Yeah the forums are full of your type of posters who think it makes them superior because they ‘think ‘ they are right and told you so….

However I’m confident things will be a lot better by Christmas but i won’t be as petty and come on here with micro-pleasure i’ll be just glad life will be returning

ypres5 · 06-03-2021 12:23AM

Gradius wrote: »

Let me tell you as one internet stranger to another, I hope everything is back to normal the quicker the better.

However, if this shyte version of life is still basically the same come Christmas, quoting you back to yourself with your 100% certainty will be a micro-pleasure in the apocalypse.

So, thanks for making it a win-win

your entire argument has absolutely zero basis in fact and seems to be entirely built on baseless pessimism. hospitalizations and deaths have plummeted in countries ahead of us in the vaccine process your argument has no scientific basis

Charles Babbage · 06-03-2021 12:54AM

Scotty # wrote: »

I think the early signs are hopeful but that's a far cry from 'proven'. Why aren't Israel's numbers falling through the floor? They've been level or sightly increasing the last week or so.

As I said, I do hope you are right!

We need to know who is getting the disease.

If half the people are vaccinated and things are open and if the half who aren't vaccinated get a lot of Covid, then that does not prove anything much.

Scotty # · 06-03-2021 12:54AM

ypres5 wrote: »

your entire argument has absolutely zero basis in fact and seems to be entirely built on baseless pessimism. hospitalizations and deaths have plummeted in countries ahead of us in the vaccine process your argument has no scientific basis

I'm not saying you're wrong, but perhaps you could put our minds at ease by showing some data that supports your stance? Evidence of hospitalisations and/or deaths declining due to vaccine rollout, not lockdowns.

One country has 3% vaccinated and the other has over 50%. Can you tell which is which??

Klonker · 06-03-2021 01:26AM

Scotty # wrote: »

I'm not saying you're wrong, but perhaps you could put our minds at ease by showing some data that supports your stance? Evidence of hospitalisations and/or deaths declining due to vaccine rollout, not lockdowns.

One country has 3% vaccinated and the other has over 50%. Can you tell which is which??

One of those countries 7 day average decreased 50% while the others decreased 90%. So that would mean one of those countries can have 5 times as many cases to have a similar death rate as the other country. So I think its pretty clear which country has been vaccinated.

Of course this isn't clear from your graph which is why you didn't include a cases graph too as you're purposely trying to muddy the data. Why you'd want to do that I honestly don't know.

ypres5 · 06-03-2021 01:27AM

Klonker wrote: »

One of those countries 7 day average decreased 50% while the others decreased 90%. So that would mean one of those countries can have 5 times as many cases to have a similar death rate as the other country. So I think its pretty clear which country has been vaccinated.

it's almost like some people have their fingers crossed the vaccine won't work despite all evidence.

Micky 32 · 06-03-2021 01:39AM

ypres5 wrote: »

it's almost like some people have their fingers crossed the vaccine won't work despite all evidence.

Yep there’s no question that they work. Some don’t seem to want to accept it. Best to ignore them.

06-03-2021 01:51AM

Scotty # wrote: »

One country has 3% vaccinated and the other has over 50%. Can you tell which is which??

The one with waaaay more cases but the same number of deaths (much lower, and decreasing, CFR) is the one that has over 50% vaccinated. That'd be Israel.

Scotty # · 06-03-2021 08:15AM

Micky 32 wrote: »

Yep there’s no question that they work. Some don’t seem to want to accept it. Best to ignore them.

ypres5 wrote: »

it's almost like some people have their fingers crossed the vaccine won't work despite all evidence.

Klonker wrote: »

Of course this isn't clear from your graph which is why you didn't include a cases graph too as you're purposely trying to muddy the data. Why you'd want to do that I honestly don't know.

SHOW ME! Sorry, I'm a numbers and stats person. Repeatedly telling me won't work, you have to provide some data.

Ireland and Israel's death figs have been more or less in line since last Nov. Long before any vaccines were used. Yes, case numbers are higher but I don't see the sudden change where vaccines kick in. All I'm asking is for someone to show me please.

Scotty # · 06-03-2021 08:28AM

Deleted User wrote: »

The one with waaaay more cases but the same number of deaths (much lower, and decreasing, CFR) is the one that has over 50% vaccinated. That'd be Israel.

Why isn't there a drop in Israel's CFR when they started vacc's? It hasn't really altered much since last July when Ireland's was 10x worse than Israel's. Now our's is only twice as bad, yet they are the one with the vaccine? Can someone explain?

Hellrazer · 06-03-2021 09:33AM

Scotty # wrote: »

Why isn't there a drop in Israel's CFR when they started vacc's? It hasn't really altered much since last July when Ireland's was 10x worse than Israel's. Now our's is only twice as bad, yet they are the one with the vaccine? Can someone explain?

Because CFR isn't a good measure to use in a pandemic...it even says it on that graph in the top right corner.

CFR is affected by numerous things namely the amount of testing a country is doing, the under-reporting of cases and / or deaths. The over reporting of deaths ie "died with covid" instead of "died from covid"

Its also a bad indicator because some people are asymptomatic and also tests can give false positives and these are included in the CFR.

IFR is a better indicator as this only based on confirmed infections and is around 0.64% mortality rate of those with confirmed infections with Covid 19.

To understand this, we need to understand the difference between case fatality rate (CFR) and infection fatality rate (IFR). CFR is the ratio of the number of deaths divided by the number of confirmed (preferably by nucleic acid testing) cases of disease. IFR is the ratio of deaths divided by the number of actual infections with SARS-CoV-2. Because nucleic acid testing is limited and currently available primarily to people with significant indications of and risk factors for covid-19 disease, and because a large number of infections with SARS-CoV-2 result in mild or even asymptomatic disease, the IFR is likely to be significantly lower than the CFR.

https://www.virology.ws/2020/04/05/infection-fatality-rate-a-critical-missing-piece-for-managing-covid-19/

Chawosfski · 06-03-2021 10:01AM

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/garda%C3%AD-urge-public-not-to-attend-anti-lockdown-protest-in-cork-1.4502627?mode=amp

Something's not right when the garda are telling people not to attend protests

Scotty # · 06-03-2021 10:06AM

Hellrazer wrote: »

Because CFR isn't a good measure to use in a pandemic...it even says it on that graph in the top right corner.

CFR is affected by numerous things namely the amount of testing a country is doing, the under-reporting of cases and / or deaths. The over reporting of deaths ie "died with covid" instead of "died from covid"

Its also a bad indicator because some people are asymptomatic and also tests can give false positives and these are included in the CFR.

IFR is a better indicator as this only based on confirmed infections and is around 0.64% mortality rate of those with confirmed infections with Covid 19.

https://www.virology.ws/2020/04/05/infection-fatality-rate-a-critical-missing-piece-for-managing-covid-19/

Do you know where I can find the IFR data for Israel or Ireland? Does it show an obvious difference in the flows pre vaccine and post vaccine?

When will it all end?

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