When will it all end?

05-03-2021 10:42AM

seansouth36 wrote: »

A lot of posters on this thread are like teenagers sulking because they are not allowed out - comparing Ireland to some sort of police state, and claiming its worse here than everywhere else and that restrictions will go on forever. They claim not to see any link between case numbers falling and lockdown yet will spout vague numbers of "mental health" casualties that apparently is coming down to the line due to this. They reject any authority over them as inherently compromised yet appeal to authority if that authority happens to be saying what they want to hear. Rather pathetic at this stage.

There's no evidence to suggest that restrictions will ever be lifted.

Micky 32 · 05-03-2021 10:42AM

Irish Stones wrote: »

Then, in October, we'll have the ICU's packed. Guaranteed.

Based on what evidence ? Finger in the air to see which way the wind is blowing? If the majority of people are vaccinated ( especially old and vulnerable) by October ICU’s won’t be packed.

05-03-2021 10:45AM

gozunda wrote: »

I see a hell of a lot of daft exaggeration that because a pandemic somehow the "lockdown" and "level 5" restrictions will go on forever.

But I take it - you mean the fact we are in the midst of a pandemic ie a global outbreak of a virulent disease - that has affected every country on the planet.

That no country has been entirely without restrictions. That in Ireland it has already been detailed that restrictions will be rolled back as the risk of rising case numbers and as a consequence presure on our health services decrease.

That we are only at the start of our vaccination programme and need to continue to observe restrictions for the short term at least .

That it's required for people to have a bit of basic cop on.

Other than all that? No.

No other country has forced its citizens to stay within 5km of their home.

Why is there no level 0 in the "living with covid" plan? Level 1 still has a number of draconian restrictions.

Irish Stones · 05-03-2021 10:47AM

Micky 32 wrote: »

Based on what evidence ? Finger in the air to see which way the wind is blowing? If the majority of people are vaccinated ( especially old and vulnerable) by October ICU’s won’t be packed.

This is the magic formula. Which, at the moment, doesn't seem to look likely.
As of yesterday, the percentage of EU citizens who have received two doses is 2.68%, a little far from the "majority" needed within June/July, that are only 4 months ahead.

the kelt · 05-03-2021 10:47AM

SheepsClothing wrote: »

Do you have any evidence whatsoever to suggest suicide has increased during covid?

He didnt claim it did to be fair

El_Duderino 09 · 05-03-2021 10:48AM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

It's very difficult to get any figures for Ireland at the moment as they usually realeased once a year but it was stopped last Summer.
A study from Japan carried by the BBC.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55837160

If there isn't data in Ireland then where do al the claims that are made in this thread about suicides "skyrocketing" come from

gozunda · 05-03-2021 10:48AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

There's no evidence to suggest that restrictions will ever be lifted.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/37/Manwithtinfoilhat.jpg

Irish Stones · 05-03-2021 10:49AM

Deleted User wrote: »

No other country has forced its citizens to stay within 5km of their home.

You're wrong, during the first hard lockdown in Italy the limit was 200 metres from home. At the moment, in most infected areas, the limit is the town boundaries, which in small towns can be as little as a few hundreds meters, rarely higher than 2 km.

gozunda · 05-03-2021 10:54AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

No other country has forced its citizens to stay within 5km of their home.

Why is there no level 0 in the "living with covid" plan? Level 1 still has a number of draconian restrictions.

Not this again.

The 5km restriction only applies to exercise. People are free to travel for essential purposes etc.

Don't know about "5km" specifically elsewhere - but countries like the UK went one better...

When you can leave home

You must not leave or be outside of your home except where you have a ‘reasonable excuse’. This is the law. The police can take action against you if you leave home without a ‘reasonable excuse’, and issue you with a fine (Fixed Penalty Notice).

You can be given a Fixed Penalty Notice of £200 for the first offence, doubling for further offences up to a maximum of £6,400.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home#when-you-can-leave-home

05-03-2021 10:54AM

gozunda wrote: »

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/37/Manwithtinfoilhat.jpg

End of that discussion.

I don't think there's any evidence. We'll leave it at that.

05-03-2021 10:55AM

Irish Stones wrote: »

You're wrong, during the first hard lockdown in Italy the limit was 200 metres from home. At the moment, in most infected areas, the limit is the town boundaries, which in small towns can be as little as a few hundreds meters, rarely higher than 2 km.

Gosh, 200 metres. I didn't know that. Thanks.

Plumbthedepths · 05-03-2021 10:57AM

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

If there isn't data in Ireland then where do al the claims that are made in this thread about suicides "skyrocketing" come from

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/gp-describes-terrible-problem-of-suicide-among-young-people-1.4426625
Prehaps from articles such as this ?

There are several others , one from last Summer citing consultants working in the field concerned by a worry up ward trend . I'm sure you can find the relevant articles if interested.

accensi0n · 05-03-2021 10:59AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

No other country has forced its citizens to stay within 5km of their home.

Except for the countries that ordered their citizens to stay literally inside their home..?

Micky 32 · 05-03-2021 11:03AM

Irish Stones wrote: »

This is the magic formula. Which, at the moment, doesn't seem to look likely.
As of yesterday, the percentage of EU citizens who have received two doses is 2.68%, a little far from the "majority" needed within June/July, that are only 4 months ahead.

I never said anything about June/July. The vaccine roll out will gather pace in the next month or so, we’ll be in a better place by October and there won’t be packed ICU’s in October full stop. That’s 8 months ahead. A lot is going to happen between now and then regarding vaccines.

05-03-2021 11:07AM

accensi0n wrote: »

Except for the countries that ordered their citizens to stay literally inside their home..?

You're quite right. I should've written "continues to".

Do you know why there's no level 0 in the 'living with covid' plan?

drunkmonkey · 05-03-2021 11:17AM

Micky 32 wrote: »

I never said anything about June/July. The vaccine roll out will gather pace in the next month or so, we’ll be in a better place by October and there won’t be packed ICU’s in October full stop.

Why do you think we're not going to end up in a situation like winter, 2017, 2018, 2019 with hospital overcrowding, viruses running rampant, we've the worst record in Europe for hospital infections.
We've back loaded a host of illnesses, you can't just shut down most of the hospitals for 18mts and not expect a massive wave of more serious illness in people when they get back to full steam.

There's absolutely no way a lot of people will accept a return to normal with the hospitals. We might get Covid under control but they'll use restrictions to protect the hospitals again next winter (flu, mrsa etc), there is no indication they won't but plenty of indications they will.

Micky 32 · 05-03-2021 11:25AM

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Why do you think we're not going to end up in a situation like winter, 2017, 2018, 2019 with hospital overcrowding, viruses running rampant, we've the worst record in Europe for hospital infections.
We've back loaded a host of illnesses, you can't just shut down most of the hospitals for 18mts and not expect a massive wave of more serious illness in people when they get back to full steam.

There's absolutely no way a lot of people will accept a return to normal with the hospitals. We might get Covid under control but they'll use restrictions to protect the hospitals again next winter (flu, mrsa etc), there is no indication they won't but plenty of indications they will.

What has other viruses and illnesses got to do with my post regarding icu’s not being packed with Covid 19 in October when most of the people who’d end up in ICU will be vaccinated. I’m not interested in your hysterical views on anything else other than what i posted.

Anyway they won’t close the economy and shut places down because of our usual winters. Not going to happen.

Scotty # · 05-03-2021 11:33AM

HansKroenke wrote: »

Under the age of 45, the death rate per 100k of the population is three times higher for suicides than covid.

Three times? What are those rates? Death rates for U45's is practically zero so i would have thought it was way more than three times but you can share the figures.

HansKroenke wrote: »

To dismiss mental health makes you seem kinda scummy.

The other side of the coin is the same could be said for the thousands of people in the country with respiratory illness for which the removal of restrictions is a very serious worry. Mental health does not trump everything else.

drunkmonkey · 05-03-2021 11:33AM

Micky 32 wrote: »

What has other viruses and illnesses got to do with my post of icu’s not being packed with Covid 19 in October when most of the people who’d end up in ICU will be vaccinated. I’m not interested in your hysterical views on anything else other than i posted.

Anyway they won’t close the economy and shut places down because of our usual winters. Not going to happen.

Hysterical views I'm only repeating what NPHET have already warned about, restrictions are on the cards for next winter.
I'm not sure you noticed but the Government are not in control of the country, NPHET are and they have said they're not concerned with the economic effects of the guidelines as it's beyond their remit.

If you think Micheál Martin is the man to lead us successful out of this mess i've bad news for you.

El_Duderino 09 · 05-03-2021 11:42AM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/gp-describes-terrible-problem-of-suicide-among-young-people-1.4426625
Prehaps from articles such as this ?

There are several others , one from last Summer citing consultants working in the field concerned by a worry up ward trend . I'm sure you can find the relevant articles if interested.

That is interesting anecdotal evidence for an increase (no number included). And I would be inclined to take it seriously because of the gravity of the whole issue of suicide even though it's not any kind of conclusive evidence.

The post quoted below got 19 Thanks for criticising the coroner, RTE and NPHET for publicising the coroner's preliminary findings, but we're taking the anecdotal evidence of a doctor who has seen an unspecified increase in suicide in their area.

We're not treating claims according to the evidence, that much is for sure.

ujjjjjjjjj wrote: »

NPHET at it again tonight, stillbirths now.......

Note coroners yet to file their reports so it is just speculation and no increase in still births in the UK and US during the pandemic so this is just total and utter scaremongering.

Spread over the main stream media......this is just grossly irresponsible.

They are beyond a joke at this stage.

Micky 32 · 05-03-2021 11:44AM

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Hysterical views I'm only repeating what NPHET have already warned about, restrictions are on the cards for next winter.
I'm not sure you noticed but the Government are not in control of the country, NPHET are and they have said they're not concerned with the economic effects of the guidelines as it's beyond their remit.

If you think Micheál Martin is the man to lead us successful out of this mess i've bad news for you.

What restrictions? My guess is advice on a bit of mask wearing in certain conditions and hygeine advice etc etc. Shops etc will not be closed down again post vaccination.

The vaccines work. Do you honestly think by the end of the year people will social distance from each other? If hospitalisations and deaths from covid 19 plummet due to vaccination lets see how many people will be compliant.

Life will finds it’s way and bounce back.

drunkmonkey · 05-03-2021 11:52AM

Micky 32 wrote: »

What restrictions? My guess is advice on a bit of mask wearing in certain conditions and hygeine advice etc etc. Shops etc will not be closed down again post vaccination.

The vaccines work. Do you honestly think by the end of the year people will social distance from each other? If hospitalisations and deaths from covid 19 plummet due to vaccination lets see how many people will be compliant.

Life will finds it’s way and bounce back.

I'd share your sentiment that people won't put up with it once the numbers decrease, little choice but to open up.

Restrictions though, MM won't go against NPHET if they demand coppers doesn't reopen this year, the scary variants remember. Also the flu are we going to let it back after eradication. Some serious battles ahead between public health and government.

05-03-2021 11:52AM

Micky 32 wrote: »

What restrictions? My guess is advice on a bit of mask wearing in certain conditions and hygeine advice etc etc. Shops etc will not be closed down again post vaccination.

The vaccines work. Do you honestly think by the end of the year people will social distance from each other? If hospitalisations and deaths from covid 19 plummet due to vaccination lets see how many people will be compliant.

Life will finds it’s way and bounce back.

Micky 32, do you think most people, who are fully behind everything that is going on, and have been for a year, would go against NPHET next winter if they said social distancing was required? A minority would, but not a majority.

And even if a majority was against it how would they express that opposition when there's no opposition in the country, in the media or in government?

And I don't think protesting would work because Irish people don't really do protests or protesting. They are disapproved of in wider society.

El_Duderino 09 · 05-03-2021 11:54AM

Micky 32 wrote: »

What restrictions? My guess is advice on a bit of mask wearing in certain conditions and hygeine advice etc etc. Shops etc will not be closed down again post vaccination.

The vaccines work. Do you honestly think by the end of the year people will social distance from each other? If hospitalisations and deaths from covid 19 plummet due to vaccination lets see how many people will be compliant.

Life will finds it’s way and bounce back.

They said they can't rule out restrictions next winter depending on how things go. Leo said he saw restrictions being needed next winter but it wasn't any kind of guarantee either way. We'll just have to wait and see what happens to hospitalisations and deaths next winter after the vaccine has been rolled out.

Could I see people social distancing in winter? If there's no problem with hospitalisations and deaths then I can't see many people social distancing. If there is a big problem with hospitalisations and deaths then I can see many people social distancing and restrictions being needed to slow the spread. You can suggest that people will refuse to do it, but you could say the same thing about people adhering to the rules right now. Right now we have restrictions which were brought in because they were necessary and people, by and large, adhere to the rules. We will always have some people who will flout the rules but that's to be expected.

the kelt · 05-03-2021 11:58AM

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

That is interesting anecdotal evidence for an increase (no number included). And I would be inclined to take it seriously because of the gravity of the whole issue of suicide even though it's not any kind of conclusive evidence.

The post quoted below got 19 Thanks for criticising the coroner, RTE and NPHET for publicising the coroner's preliminary findings, but we're taking the anecdotal evidence of a doctor who has seen an unspecified increase in suicide in their area.

We're not treating claims according to the evidence, that much is for sure.

Unfortunately the process involved in dealing with suicide deaths can be quite a lengthy one made longer by COVID (take it from experience), we are unlikely to have a full picture as to the situation in 2020 until later on this year.

But you're right, it is something to be taken seriously but we wont have any conclusive evidence until later on this year.

Its an uncomfortable conversation in all honesty.

drunkmonkey · 05-03-2021 11:58AM

We have a problem in the hospitals every year that's the issue, what's the vaccine do, prevent 90% of serious hospitalisations, that' still means Covid will be spreading and will get into nursing homes and hospitals where we know it spreads like wildfire.

Tazz T · 05-03-2021 12:02PM

Irish Stones wrote: »

Then, in October, we'll have the ICU's packed. Guaranteed.

Didn't happen last year, why would it happen this year?

Incidentally Greece had 100s of 1000s coming in all summer and didn't see a rise in infections until after the season had ended.

You can see their data here.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/greece/

05-03-2021 12:02PM

drunkmonkey wrote: »

We have a problem in the hospitals every year that's the issue, what's the vaccine do, prevent 90% of serious hospitalisations, that' still means Covid will be spreading and will get into nursing homes and hospitals where we know it spreads like wildfire.

Yes, and the obsession with case numbers isn't going to go away. RTÉ aren't suddenly going to decide that they no longer matter.

Micky 32 · 05-03-2021 12:04PM

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

They said they can't rule out restrictions next winter depending on how things go. Leo said he saw restrictions being needed next winter but it wasn't any kind of guarantee either way. We'll just have to wait and see what happens to hospitalisations and deaths next winter after the vaccine has been rolled out.

Could I see people social distancing in winter? If there's no problem with hospitalisations and deaths then I can't see many people social distancing. If there is a big problem with hospitalisations and deaths then I can see many people social distancing and restrictions being needed to slow the spread. You can suggest that people will refuse to do it, but you could say the same thing about people adhering to the rules right now. Right now we have restrictions which were brought in because they were necessary and people, by and large, adhere to the rules. We will always have some people who will flout the rules but that's to be expected.

I’m fairly confident restrictions will be gone by next winter, no argument really. The thread is going around in circles with large posts of endless waffling.

05-03-2021 12:06PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

I’m fairly confident restrictions will be gone by next winter, no argument really.

I hope you're right, but I just don't see any evidence of them being lifted. The fact that there's no level 0 in the "living with covid" plan is extremely worrying.

When will it all end?

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