2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

Graham · 04-03-2021 06:10PM

Mod Note

some off topic posts deleted.

Do not reply to this post.

MacronvFrugals · 04-03-2021 06:17PM

Some folks are taking full advantage of the WFH situation, are these holiday homes for a few months or permanent residencies I wonder.

"Spike in interest from Irish buyers seeking move to Valencia"

Irish buyers are keen to acquire properties in Valencia that have space for home offices.

Found Valencia, a Spanish-based real estate agency, has recorded a spike in enquiries from prospective Irish buyers since the beginning of the year.

Since the start 2021, enquiries received by the firm from Irish buyers have increased by 52 per cent year-on-year, according to Conor Wilde, founder of the agency.

https://www.businesspost.ie/houses/spike-in-interest-from-irish-buyers-seeking-move-to-valencia-cf4a5995

04-03-2021 06:22PM

Markets down
If it will be continue
Many young "ETF investors " will be in difficulties pay rent
Some will be have problems pay mortgage or cars loan
Banks leaving/closing branches but mister Paschal Donohue says Economy will recover.What else he can say ? We done lads and create panic ? Government news on government RTE try create positivity telling stories about another 50 jobs created but not telling about another 1200 lost.
- 14 billion revenues this year already ! How much spent to cover 2008 bailout loses ? About 44 billions ? Lets look how much money lost in 2020 ? We nearly there
Any way.Once mister Paschal Donohue will start telling that your money in banks are covered by up to 100K protection and please do not panic that will be it.
Property market will be down this year by my point of view.

fliball123 · 04-03-2021 06:59PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Markets down
If it will be continue
Many young "ETF investors " will be in difficulties pay rent
Some will be have problems pay mortgage or cars loan
Banks leaving/closing branches but mister Paschal Donohue says Economy will recover.What else he can say ? We done lads and create panic ? Government news on government RTE try create positivity telling stories about another 50 jobs created but not telling about another 1200 lost.
- 14 billion revenues this year already ! How much spent to cover 2008 bailout loses ? About 44 billions ? Lets look how much money lost in 2020 ? We nearly there
Any way.Once mister Paschal Donohue will start telling that your money in banks are covered by up to 100K protection and please do not panic that will be it.
Property market will be down this year by my point of view.

Was this not your point of view this time last year as well.

We are not going to see price drops this year or at least until after the budget (if there is any)

04-03-2021 07:02PM

fliball123 wrote: »

Was this not your point of view this time last year as well.

We are not going to see price drops this year or at least until after the budget (if there is any)

We all believe that this time will be different then last one
The seller believe that this time will not be different
The buyer taking mortgage believe that this time are different
But sadly rules of the market and people on it are the same

decreds · 04-03-2021 07:59PM

fliball123 wrote: »

Was this not your point of view this time last year as well.

We are not going to see price drops this year or at least until after the budget (if there is any)

Lol.

Facing down the biggest depression and history, supply starting to come on stream, job losses and tax hikes but yeah, no price drops this year.

While i do agree it may take some time to see modest drops, if we are out of lockdown by May, we should see drops by September and complete crash after the next GE.

decreds · 04-03-2021 08:03PM

Tax hikes coming to pay for covid: https://www.independent.ie/business/finance-minister-donohoe-warns-taxes-will-rise-after-covid-40160291.html

Yet while we are in the middle of a housing crisis, the government release a whitepaper on ending direct provision to house economic migrants in their own accommodation 4 months after arrival. Yet there is no money to fix the crisis, as usual the tax payer who is the only one working and contributing to society in this equation ends up being shafted.

Hubertj · 04-03-2021 08:10PM

decreds wrote: »

Tax hikes coming to pay for covid: https://www.independent.ie/business/finance-minister-donohoe-warns-taxes-will-rise-after-covid-40160291.html

Yet while we are in the middle of a housing crisis, the government release a whitepaper on ending direct provision to house economic migrants in their own accommodation 4 months after arrival. Yet there is no money to fix the crisis, as usual the tax payer who is the only one working and contributing to society in this equation ends up being shafted.

I think it was obvious from a long time back taxes would increase over time in order to manage public finances.

Regarding direct provision, do you have a problem with it being abolished and a better system being put in place? The current system and accommodation for asylum seekers is not fit for purpose. Speeding up to application and review process along with giving successful applicants somewhere it live is the right thing to do. This needs to be done in conjunction with resolving the housing needs of irish people as well.

PropQueries · 04-03-2021 08:20PM

decreds wrote: »

Tax hikes coming to pay for covid: https://www.independent.ie/business/finance-minister-donohoe-warns-taxes-will-rise-after-covid-40160291.html

Yet while we are in the middle of a housing crisis, the government release a whitepaper on ending direct provision to house economic migrants in their own accommodation 4 months after arrival. Yet there is no money to fix the crisis, as usual the tax payer who is the only one working and contributing to society in this equation ends up being shafted.

I especially like his comment:

“The idea that deficits don’t matter, especially for a small economy without the possibility to print its own currency, is so far off the mark as to be dangerous in evaluating policy options in the future”.

Looks like he’s finally getting the message from the EU that they’re not going to keep funding our excessive spending indefinitely IMO

cnocbui · 04-03-2021 08:28PM

PropQueries wrote: »

I especially like his comment:

“The idea that deficits don’t matter, especially for a small economy without the possibility to print its own currency, is so far off the mark as to be dangerous in evaluating policy options in the future”.

Looks like he’s finally getting the message from the EU that they’re not going to keep funding our excessive spending indefinitely IMO

Every country affected by covid has excessive spending, there is nothing unique about Ireland in that respect. Ireland does need to stop listening to those incompetent HSE covid panicked doom merchants and get out of this forever locked down syndrome they have going.

Marius34 · 04-03-2021 08:30PM

Deleted User wrote: »

We all believe that this time will be different then last one
The seller believe that this time will not be different
The buyer taking mortgage believe that this time are different
But sadly rules of the market and people on it are the same

You are late by 1 year now.

cnocbui · 04-03-2021 08:31PM

Deleted User wrote: »

We all believe that this time will be different then last one
The seller believe that this time will not be different
The buyer taking mortgage believe that this time are different
But sadly rules of the market and people on it are the same

The last time there was excess supply. So this time is different.

PropQueries · 04-03-2021 08:36PM

Hubertj wrote: »

I think it was obvious from a long time back taxes would increase over time in order to manage public finances.

Regarding direct provision, do you have a problem with it being abolished and a better system being put in place? The current system and accommodation for asylum seekers is not fit for purpose. Speeding up to application and review process along with giving successful applicants somewhere it live is the right thing to do. This needs to be done in conjunction with resolving the housing needs of irish people as well.

The current system is indeed ridiculous and morally wrong IMO, but the Sunday Business Post reported last November:

“The proposal to house asylum seekers in own door accommodation provided by local authorities has been described as “unworkable” , “unimplementable” and “unrealistic” by the Department of Housing.”.

It may be the right thing to do but it’s definitely the wrong policy at the current time and they have plenty of highly paid consultants who should be able to come up with better alternatives IMO.

I’m thinking making use of all those holiday homes around the country currently owned by the vulture funds.

And remember, DCC recently stated that they’re in active negotiations with c. 4,000 property owners in the city alone to either rent their properties long term or buy them for social housing.

So, basically, middle class FTBs can’t buy new built homes because the state is buying them all up (4 in 10 new builds are bought by the funds or the state), they can’t buy second hand homes because the state is buying them all up. And, the state now wants to add this to the mix?

It will only lead to the inevitable rise in support for right wing groups in the country IMO

HansKroenke · 04-03-2021 09:23PM

Ireland goes left more than right as the last election showed us. Only those who spend too much time on twitter think we have a far right problem in Ireland, but there are no mainstream right wing parties to even vote for.

With the shared equity scheme getting shoehorned through in the face of unanimous opposition, while the direct provision own door housing is apparently going to solve housing issues for those not even in the country, I'd be preparing myself for SF in the next 3 years. It's going to induce panic across the older generations and among investors which will cause panic in the housing market as it will do across the circles of society which operate on the basis of FF or FG in power. I'm not saying if SF is going to be good or bad, but it will cause unprecedented uncertainty and possibly chaos.

MacronvFrugals · 04-03-2021 09:32PM

As Mick Clifford pointed out multiple times, SF acted as the pressure valve in many of the normal places far-right parties foster and grow which is probably why they're feeble at best in Ireland, thankfully!

decreds · 04-03-2021 09:37PM

PropQueries wrote: »

The current system is indeed ridiculous and morally wrong IMO, but the Sunday Business Post reported last November:

“The proposal to house asylum seekers in own door accommodation provided by local authorities has been described as “unworkable” , “unimplementable” and “unrealistic” by the Department of Housing.”.

It may be the right thing to do but it’s definitely the wrong policy at the current time and they have plenty of highly paid consultants who should be able to come up with better alternatives IMO.

I’m thinking making use of all those holiday homes around the country currently owned by the vulture funds.

And remember, DCC recently stated that they’re in active negotiations with c. 4,000 property owners in the city alone to either rent their properties long term or buy them for social housing.

So, basically, middle class FTBs can’t buy new built homes because the state is buying them all up (4 in 10 new builds are bought by the funds or the state), they can’t buy second hand homes because the state is buying them all up. And, the state now wants to add this to the mix?

It will only lead to the inevitable rise in support for right wing groups in the country IMO

Spot on props.

While i agree the DP system was incompetent and many welfare tourists exploited it, but this new system only opens the floodgates even more to welfare tourists and chancers. Under the new system, applicants who are waiting 4 months for their case to be heard are moved to private accommodation.

So they are moved regardless of whether their case is eventually deemed legitimate or not, good luck moving them out if their case is rejected.

Once word gets out, we will be flooded with leeches. The biggest losers here are the taxpayer and legitimate refugees.

Most of the welfare tourists claiming to be refugees regularly holiday back to the country they claim to have "fled" from once they get their citizenship, free housing and life paid for by the taxpayer.

04-03-2021 09:37PM

cnocbui wrote: »

The last time there was excess supply. So this time is different.

Exactly ! Time is different because it is 2021 but rules of the market the same :
No job-No money ! No money- No demand ! No demand-small prices !

decreds · 04-03-2021 09:39PM

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

As Mick Clifford pointed out multiple times, SF acted as the pressure valve in many of the normal places far-right parties foster and grow which is probably why they're feeble at best in Ireland, thankfully!

Let's hope it remains that way. Listening to the discourse among the younger generation (20-30 year olds) these days i wouldn't be too optimistic. Many are leaning right by the sounds of it.

PropQueries · 04-03-2021 09:46PM

decreds wrote: »

Spot on props.

While i agree the DP system was incompetent and many welfare tourists exploited it, but this new system only opens the floodgates even more to welfare tourists and chancers. Under the new system, applicants who are waiting 4 months for their case to be heard are moved to private accommodation.

So they are moved regardless of whether their case is eventually deemed legitimate or not, good luck moving them out if their case is rejected.

Once word gets out, we will be flooded with leeches. The biggest losers here are the taxpayer and legitimate refugees.

Most of the welfare tourists claiming to be refugees regularly holiday back to the country they claim to have "fled" from once they get their citizenship, free housing and life paid for by the taxpayer.

I actually think immigrants (from all places) are good for our economy and society

it’s why the states was / is such a success.

The issue with this policy is that they’re introducing it at a time when there’s an apparent housing “shortage”, in which case it will lead to the inevitable IMO

We’re not an anti-immigrant people in general but if we do become it, it will adversely impact both the economy and society and it can be put squarely at the feet of this government IMO

Caquas · 04-03-2021 09:50PM

awec wrote: »

https://www.msn.com/en-ie/lifestyle/home-and-garden/famous-movie-mansion-goes-up-for-sale-in-killiney-county-dublin/ar-BB1dQVOC?ocid=msedgntp

schmittel I think this is the gaff we were talking about before! I didn't realise it had been used for a movie.

Don’t watch that movie if you are thinking of buying. Stalker nightmare!

€10M. is very ambitious. Hendre, just down the street, sold for €3.7M in 2018. Similar style but 30% smaller, lower spec, smaller garden. I can’t see Ananda getting over €8M but, hey, out of my league at any price. :rolleyes:

decreds · 04-03-2021 09:50PM

PropQueries wrote: »

I actually think immigrants (from all places) are good for our economy and society it’s why the states was / is such a success.

The issue with this policy is that they’re introducing it at a time when there’s an apparent housing “shortage”, in which case it will lead to the inevitable IMO

We’re not an anti-immigrant people in general but if we do become it, it will adversely impact both the economy and society and it can be put squarely at the feet of this government IMO

100% agree but there needs to be some sane vetting process similar to OZ/NZ for those who come here and prove that they can and will contribute to Irish society. Right now it seems they let anyone in.

In the midst of a housing crisis when thousands of native Irish people working for a living cannot afford their own home and thousands more on the social housing list for over a decade or more, the government think it would be a good idea to guarantee housing to immigrants after a mere four months of arriving into Ireland.

This will not go down well.

Graham · 04-03-2021 09:56PM

Mod Note

a reminder this is the accommodation & property forum. Decreds, take the discussion of immigration standards to the relevant forum.

Do not reply to this post.

Browney7 · 04-03-2021 10:18PM

https://m.independent.ie/news/publican-charlie-chawke-lodged-186m-fast-track-plans-to-construct-299-apartments-beside-dublin-bar-40160065.html

looks like Charlie is either bullish on the property market or is now happy with prices that can be achieved after sitting on the land for the past while.

Bit eye watering the prices he's proposing to sell to the council at. If you take the the site value of 12.5 million and take the 299 apartments, being generous, you're looking at 50k max of land "value" for the two bed apartment. Considering a private developer in Castleknock is willing to sell these brand new build 2 beds https://www.daft.ie/new-home-for-sale/clonbern-development-castleknock-road-castleknock-dublin-15/1198520 for between 410-450 depending on floor and aspect, it seems like a sick joke the state is being offered the "opportunity" to buy at the 675-775k range.

Rosieposie2021 · 04-03-2021 10:24PM

Hey guys.. Would anyone have an idea how long a new build takes to be built? Foundations are down but work stopped due to covid. There is approx 20 houses. If construction returns soon would anyone have an idea all going well how long they take? They have not been advertised yet but me and my partner are trying to work out how long would we have to save remainder of deposit. Thank you

hometruths · 04-03-2021 10:24PM

Caquas wrote: »

Don’t watch that movie if you are thinking of buying. Stalker nightmare!

€10M. is very ambitious. Hendre, just down the street, sold for €3.7M in 2018. Similar style but 30% smaller, lower spec, smaller garden. I can’t see Ananda getting over €8M but, hey, out of my league at any price. :rolleyes:

€8m still a hefty chunk of change, and who knows, owner might be happy with that.

I think this is the sort of house that needs a high asking asking price - it's not likely to have a bidding war, so from vendors point of view better off to pitch it high and listen to offers, than pitch low to attract interest.

It's totally unique and vendor has luxury of knowing that whatever he prices it at there is not going to be something comparable suddenly on the market to undercut it.

I'm as bearish and anti bubblicious price inflation as you'll find, and would normally be the first to knock overly ambitious asking prices, but in this case I say fair play to them!

thefridge2006 · 04-03-2021 10:25PM

Hubertj wrote: »

I think it was obvious from a long time back taxes would increase over time in order to manage public finances.

Regarding direct provision, do you have a problem with it being abolished and a better system being put in place? The current system and accommodation for asylum seekers is not fit for purpose. Speeding up to application and review process along with giving successful applicants somewhere it live is the right thing to do. This needs to be done in conjunction with resolving the housing needs of irish people as well.

In my opinion this kind of approach will only fuel right wing politics. When the average Paddy who is really struggling to get on the property ladder and not seeing anything being done to help him by his Government only increased taxes and ridiculous schemes sees Johnny foreigner walk into a house after 4 months. It will cause chaos

hometruths · 04-03-2021 10:30PM

If people are predicting a rise in right wing politics, I wonder what would a right wing housing policy look like?

Totally free market.
No rent caps.
No eviction bans.
No HTB.
Repos return.

Sounds kind of tempting to be honest!

thefridge2006 · 04-03-2021 10:30PM

PropQueries wrote: »

The current system is indeed ridiculous and morally wrong IMO, but the Sunday Business Post reported last November:

“The proposal to house asylum seekers in own door accommodation provided by local authorities has been described as “unworkable” , “unimplementable” and “unrealistic” by the Department of Housing.”.

It may be the right thing to do but it’s definitely the wrong policy at the current time and they have plenty of highly paid consultants who should be able to come up with better alternatives IMO.

I’m thinking making use of all those holiday homes around the country currently owned by the vulture funds.

And remember, DCC recently stated that they’re in active negotiations with c. 4,000 property owners in the city alone to either rent their properties long term or buy them for social housing.

So, basically, middle class FTBs can’t buy new built homes because the state is buying them all up (4 in 10 new builds are bought by the funds or the state), they can’t buy second hand homes because the state is buying them all up. And, the state now wants to add this to the mix?

It will only lead to the inevitable rise in support for right wing groups in the country IMO

totally agree Props, right wing politics will be on the rise in this scenario

thefridge2006 · 04-03-2021 10:42PM

schmittel wrote: »

If people are predicting a rise in right wing politics, I wonder what would a right wing housing policy look like?

Totally free market.
No rent caps.
No eviction bans.
No HTB.
Repos return.

Sounds kind of tempting to be honest!

This place is a joke regarding this stuff. my opinion is, if you can't pay, take it away.

combat14 · 04-03-2021 11:03PM

Browney7 wrote: »

https://m.independent.ie/news/publican-charlie-chawke-lodged-186m-fast-track-plans-to-construct-299-apartments-beside-dublin-bar-40160065.html

looks like Charlie is either bullish on the property market or is now happy with prices that can be achieved after sitting on the land for the past while.

Bit eye watering the prices he's proposing to sell to the council at. If you take the the site value of 12.5 million and take the 299 apartments, being generous, you're looking at 50k max of land "value" for the two bed apartment. Considering a private developer in Castleknock is willing to sell these brand new build 2 beds https://www.daft.ie/new-home-for-sale/clonbern-development-castleknock-road-castleknock-dublin-15/1198520 for between 410-450 depending on floor and aspect, it seems like a sick joke the state is being offered the "opportunity" to buy at the 675-775k range.

starting to look a bit bubble ish lol

2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1