2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

i agree with you, im not that fussed about the current value of my home either, but where we differ is i would probably buy a more expensive property if i move so a falling market is in my favour, whereas, as you correctly point out, it works against downsizers.

This is not well enough understood/considered I think.

It seems like most people who are happy with escalating prices are the ones who benefit least - i.e trader uppers.

They think that rising prices increasing their equity will help them trade up, but in truth if they wish to trade up they are much better served by falling prices.

combat14

Yurt! wrote: »

Well that's a one way to breezily waltz a country into chaos.

perhaps if some fiscal prudence is going to cause a little bit of chaos we are in the midst of a gigantic bube

The_Conductor

My current prediction:

Prices to stabilise at in or around current levels for a period of 18-24 months, once lockdown ends.

Salaries to barely budge (I see the public sector have voted to accept a 1% payrise this year and next)

Inflation to start to rise from Q3 2021 onwards- as the est. 22 billion in savings that the government feel people might splurge comes into play.

Taxation regime to take the cost of increased borrowing into account (our costs are already rising- we got lucky refinancing our long term debt when we did- however, we're not going to be so lucky in future)

Taxation and inflation- will make people feel poorer- esp. if there are no meaningful wage increases- which in turn may be a brake for the price tags of big ticket items- but they aren't going to help with everyday food/clothing/electricals/fuel/services/amenities etc- which will happily make hay while people have cash to burn.

I'd guess low grade inflation in the property market of 3-4% tapering back towards equilibrium in a 24 month period...........

Taxation- and how we decide to pay for Covid, alongside our public sector expenditure in medium term (esp. health) are the elephants in the corner. It beggars belief that we can continue borrowing as we currently are (even stripping covid EWSP and PUP out of the equation).

I suspect there are going to be a lot of people deeply unhappy esp. when the inevitable tax rises raise their heads. We aren't particularly highly taxed in Ireland- but the ultra wealthy and their opposites, those who earn less than than 25k per annum- do not pay their fair share- the heavy lifting is done by the middle income earners. I think the level at which our higher rate of tax vests in Ireland, is almost unique in the OECD- and is an active disincentive to work- its damn near impossible to pay someone to work- other than in low paid menial jobs- otherwise, a PAYE employee is simply working for the government (who get upwards of 52% of their marginal income).

We are going to have to have a proper debate on how we plan to run society and how we plan to fund it, once this covid mess is over. The risk is that people will turn to populists who promise them the earth, the sun, the moon and the stars- without having a manner of paying for the bribes they offer their electorate. Even the incumbents are guilty of this- FG got a lot of their votes last time round by promising to reform tax for middle income earners- well, they're certainly not going to get those votes again.

The bigger issue might be the fact that we don't have a forum to discuss all of these issues. Whatever we do- will involve sacrifice- probably in the form of higher taxes, cutbacks in other areas- and then the old chestnuts, such as pensions reform (you can bet that will be slipped in somewhere).

Its going to be an interesting time ahead of us- and I don't think anyone, anyone at all, is going to be particularly happy with the journey it involves.

Yurt2

fliball123 wrote: »

Go on show me these international defined metrics please. I did the math on here multiple times with a couple on the median wage they can still get houses in every county even in certain parts of Dublin its just when they want to go to parts that are in demand or houses that are on the higher end of the spec...Unfortunately you pay for quality and location as is the case in every first world country in the world.

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-eaads/earningsanalysisusingadministrativedatasources2018/annualearnings/

Currently over 600 in Dublin alone coming in under 275k

Median wage in Ireland in 2018 was 36,095 (note this includes all part time workers as well)

We are conservative with our 3.5 times borrowings and 10% deposit under the ECB rules and when compared to other OCED countries

So the Math - 36k * 2 (as usually nowadays houses are bought by couples) = 72

Multiply by the very conservative 3.5 times you can borrow 72 * 3.5 = 252k

Add in your 10% deposit 252k + 25k = 277k

Now as I say 600 houses currently available for sale under this price in Dublin alone and 6200 well over half the current available stock up for sale on myhome available for under this price. How are we unaffordable again. Is it by some antiquated outdated method where mum must stay at home and look after the kids and not work ever calculation?

So in your analogy the typical Joe and Mary can afford a house at under 275k and there are well over half the current stock available in the country for under this price but I think the Average Joe and Mary want a mansion with a sea view with an A1 energy rating unfortunately these luxuries, add-ons and locations cost money.

Do you actually think these (wow 600 hundred in the capital city, knock me down with a feather!) houses in this segment go for on or under the asking price? Really? Joe and Mary median ain't getting their hands on these homes and will be stuck in the private rental market.

fliball123

Yurt! wrote: »

Do you actually think these (wow 600 hundred in the capital city, knock me down with a feather!) houses in this segment go for on or under the asking price? Really? Joe and Mary median ain't getting their hands on these homes and will be stuck in the private rental market.

Well there is nothing I can do about the current lack of supply and no one knows what the difference between asking and actual price will be unless you have a crystal ball but historically it has been more or less in or around the same over the last 4/5 years give or take. Also Dublin's mean wage would also be higher than that of the rest of the country. There is over half the current stock out there available for your typical Joe and Mary and I have shown you the math. So houses are currently affordable the problem is there just does not seem to be that many available.

We all have to start somewhere I was renting before I bought as well thats just how it is.

Yurt2

fliball123 wrote: »

Well there is nothing I can do about the current lack of supply and also Dublin's mean wage would also be higher than that of the rest of the country. There is over half the current stock out there available for your Joe and Mary and I have shown you the math. So houses are currently affordable the problem is there just does not seem to be that many available

You did a search on asking prices. There is not a snowballs that segment is going for on or under asking. Your argument falls apart pretty quickly on that score.

Hubertj

The_Conductor wrote: »

My current prediction:

Prices to stabilise at in or around current levels for a period of 18-24 months, once lockdown ends.

Salaries to barely budge (I see the public sector have voted to accept a 1% payrise this year and next)

Inflation to start to rise from Q3 2021 onwards- as the est. 22 billion in savings that the government feel people might splurge comes into play.

Taxation regime to take the cost of increased borrowing into account (our costs are already rising- we got lucky refinancing our long term debt when we did- however, we're not going to be so lucky in future)

Taxation and inflation- will make people feel poorer- esp. if there are no meaningful wage increases- which in turn may be a brake for the price tags of big ticket items- but they aren't going to help with everyday food/clothing/electricals/fuel/services/amenities etc- which will happily make hay while people have cash to burn.

I'd guess low grade inflation in the property market of 3-4% tapering back towards equilibrium in a 24 month period...........

Taxation- and how we decide to pay for Covid, alongside our public sector expenditure in medium term (esp. health) are the elephants in the corner. It beggars belief that we can continue borrowing as we currently are (even stripping covid EWSP and PUP out of the equation).

I suspect there are going to be a lot of people deeply unhappy esp. when the inevitable tax rises raise their heads. We aren't particularly highly taxed in Ireland- but the ultra wealthy and their opposites, those who earn less than than 25k per annum- do not pay their fair share- the heavy lifting is done by the middle income earners. I think the level at which our higher rate of tax vests in Ireland, is almost unique in the OECD- and is an active disincentive to work- its damn near impossible to pay someone to work- other than in low paid menial jobs- otherwise, a PAYE employee is simply working for the government (who get upwards of 52% of their marginal income).

We are going to have to have a proper debate on how we plan to run society and how we plan to fund it, once this covid mess is over. The risk is that people will turn to populists who promise them the earth, the sun, the moon and the stars- without having a manner of paying for the bribes they offer their electorate. Even the incumbents are guilty of this- FG got a lot of their votes last time round by promising to reform tax for middle income earners- well, they're certainly not going to get those votes again.

The bigger issue might be the fact that we don't have a forum to discuss all of these issues. Whatever we do- will involve sacrifice- probably in the form of higher taxes, cutbacks in other areas- and then the old chestnuts, such as pensions reform (you can bet that will be slipped in somewhere).

Its going to be an interesting time ahead of us- and I don't think anyone, anyone at all, is going to be particularly happy with the journey it involves.

I haven’t got a clue what way prices will go. I still don’t understand why they haven’t fallen.

Fully agree with the conversation around taxation. Sadly this country won’t have a mature conversation around this due to the outrageous populism which has engulfed Irish politics. Not the forum to go into it here.

jill_valentine

Yurt! wrote: »

Do you actually think these (wow 600 hundred in the capital city, knock me down with a feather!) houses in this segment go for on or under the asking price? Really? Joe and Mary median ain't getting their hands on these homes and will be stuck in the private rental market.

Even at a glance it's even grimmer than that. Myhome is slow for stuff to come back down once sold, so a significant chunk of that is a) already gone, b) sites, and c) auctions, so Joe and Mary's mortgage is a no-go.

At most, it would look more like 500ish homes of any kind for sale *starting* under quarter of a million in the whole county.

cnocbui

Hubertj wrote: »

I haven’t got a clue what way prices will go. I still don’t understand why they haven’t fallen.

Fully agree with the conversation around taxation. Sadly this country won’t have a mature conversation around this due to the outrageous populism which has engulfed Irish politics. Not the forum to go into it here.

What is a mature conversation on taxation? It is my perception the Irish government gets away with blue murder on individul tax burden because of the near universal use of GDP as a reference, making individual tax burden in Ireland look light because of the exagerated GDP.

A grown up conversation in my eyes would be how Ireland is going to wean itself off low corporate tax as a competitive measure for attracting foreign employers and instead stimulate local home grown employment.

ebayissues

Its clear that taxes increases ae on the way. Before the government need to ensure that people have incentive to spend.



In terms of taxes, can someone provide an guestimate of %% taxes inceases in last crises - are we talking of 5%, 10% or 20% for hgh earners?


I looked it up ages go and thought it defo wasnt end of the world.

Hubertj

cnocbui wrote: »

What is a mature conversation on taxation? It is my perception the Irish government gets away with blue murder on individul tax burden because of the near universal use of GDP as a reference, making individual tax burden in Ireland look light because of the exagerated GDP.

A grown up conversation in my eyes would be how Ireland is going to wean itself off low corporate tax as a competitive measure for attracting foreign employers and instead stimulate local home grown employment.

All of those along with property taxes. Some seem to think we increase corporation tax and problem is solved. Need to discuss overall income tax, tax bands, broaden tax based including increased property taxes. By broadening tax base and changing tax bands that needs to be considered song with afforidsbiliry of housing both to buy or rent. Not an easy puzzle to solve when considering we will also have high levels of unemployment short to medium term (however you define medium).

Yurt2

Hubertj wrote: »

All of those along with property taxes. Some seem to think we increase corporation tax and problem is solved. Need to discuss overall income tax, tax bands, broaden tax based including increased property taxes. By broadening tax base and changing tax bands that needs to be considered song with afforidsbiliry of housing both to buy or rent. Not an easy puzzle to solve when considering we will also have high levels of unemployment short to medium term (however you define medium).

I'm not actually making the case for increasing the corporation tax rate in saying this, but the 12.5% is absolutely a sacred cow when it comes to discussing taxation. Sometimes when even a whisper of tinkering with it comes up, I worry that certain people from IBEC, the IDA, Ernest & Young and Deloitte are going to go full Tibetan monk and self-immolate on the steps of the Powerscourt Centre.

Rishi Sunak brought the UK's to 25% today without much of a whimper, so lets see how that works out.

There's a lot of people unable to have mature conversations around a lot of things in this country, and we're going to have to get used to the idea that due to factors outside of our control, the party days of 12.5% may well be coming to an end whether we like it or not.

decreds

schmittel wrote: »

50,000 a year is madness. He's allowing 10,000 a year for obsolescence which is insane. He says this is conservative! His other assumptions are equally bonkers.

Agreed, he talks an awful lot of dribble. Just because he called the last crash doesn't mean he is right with all his predictions.


Doesn't help with the endless Trump bashing on his podcast before you actually get to the content.



The best way to fix this market is raise interest rates and let the house of cards correct itself. That method won't happen anytime soon though so it will more likely be self sabotage when SF come to power.

mcsean2163

Does anyone know if there's been a positive or negative immigration in 2020? I'm assuming negative but maybe I'm wrong?

Given it's now peak selling season but we're lockdown, we may not see houses coming on the market until June and probably many will miss the boat preferring to enjoy the summer holidays. So my guess is a tsunami of property this time next year.

Islandbridge new luxury development ... empty. Grand canal dock... empty. People have the economy and probably won't be coming back, so there should be a surplus of supply next year. I that about right?

mcsean2163

Does anyone know if there's been a positive or negative immigration in 2020? I'm assuming negative but maybe I'm wrong?

Given it's now peak selling season but we're lockdown, we may not see houses coming on the market until June and probably many will miss the boat preferring to enjoy the summer holidays. So my guess is a tsunami of property this time next year.

Islandbridge new luxury development ... empty. Grand canal dock... empty. People have the economy and probably won't be coming back, so there should be a surplus of supply next year. I that about right?

decreds

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Does anyone know if there's been a positive or negative immigration in 2020? I'm assuming negative but maybe I'm wrong?

Given it's now peak selling season but we're lockdown, we may not see houses coming on the market until June and probably many will miss the boat preferring to enjoy the summer holidays. So my guess is a tsunami of property this time next year.

Islandbridge new luxury development ... empty. Grand canal dock... empty. People have the economy and probably won't be coming back, so there should be a surplus of supply next year. I that about right?

As far as immigration goes, they are still actively accepting economic migrants and i read on another thread (not sure if it's true) that the only new social housing is for direct provision/migrants? I haven't researched this though, if true, Paddy is well and truly being taken to the cleaners.


Your prediction about supply may be correct but i'd be more confident of it occurring in late 2023 or early 2024.

cnocbui

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Does anyone know if there's been a positive or negative immigration in 2020? I'm assuming negative but maybe I'm wrong?

Given it's now peak selling season but we're lockdown, we may not see houses coming on the market until June and probably many will miss the boat preferring to enjoy the summer holidays. So my guess is a tsunami of property this time next year.

Islandbridge new luxury development ... empty. Grand canal dock... empty. People have the economy and probably won't be coming back, so there should be a surplus of supply next year. I that about right?

I'm currently doing my level best to increase supply so I can exit, stage left.

PropQueries

decreds wrote: »

Agreed, he talks an awful lot of dribble. Just because he called the last crash doesn't mean he is right with all his predictions.


Doesn't help with the endless Trump bashing on his podcast before you actually get to the content.



The best way to fix this market is raise interest rates and let the house of cards correct itself. That method won't happen anytime soon though so it will more likely be self sabotage when SF come to power.

Interesting ECB survey on what EU citizens think of the ECB low interest rate policy was reported last month on RTÉ but went under the radar. The survey was performed by the ECB.

“more than half of the 3,960 participants saying the ECB's policy had a negative impact on them and just over 10% finding it positive.”

“A third said an ECB-fuelled rise in asset prices was "filling the pockets of those who already have financial wealth".

“Roughly half of the respondents came from the Netherlands or Germany - two savings-rich countries where these problems have been felt more acutely”

Some interesting comments from some of the people who completed the survey as well.

Link to article on RTÉ here: https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0209/1195965-ecb-survey-on-interest-rates/

hometruths

PropQueries wrote: »

Interesting ECB survey on what EU citizens think of the ECB low interest rate policy was reported last month on RTÉ but went under the radar. The survey was performed by the ECB.

“more than half of the 3,960 participants saying the ECB's policy had a negative impact on them and just over 10% finding it positive.”

“A third said an ECB-fuelled rise in asset prices was "filling the pockets of those who already have financial wealth".

“Roughly half of the respondents came from the Netherlands or Germany - two savings-rich countries where these problems have been felt more acutely”

Some interesting comments from some of the people who completed the survey as well.

Link to article on RTÉ here: https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0209/1195965-ecb-survey-on-interest-rates/

I predict some serious squabbling about interest rates in the eurozone. Wouldn't be so sure that the low rate policy is here for the long term.

hometruths

Serious time warp house in Greystones for 1.275m

Interesting to see what this goes for.

On the one hand 283 sqm detached on guts of an acre in Greystones is always going to be worth a few quid, but by the looks of that house you'd probably be better off knocklng it and starting again, bringing your costs up to near enough 2m. Not convinced that street is worth 2m.

I wonder is it priced to try and carve three or four sites out of it.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/greenways-manor-avenue-greystones-co-wicklow/4487256

cnocbui

Doesn't remotely look like it needs knocking down.

L1011

I don't know how you'd rescue that layout without significant internal reconstruction. Its terrible.

HansKroenke

schmittel wrote: »

Serious time warp house in Greystones for 1.275m

Interesting to see what this goes for.

On the one hand 283 sqm detached on guts of an acre in Greystones is always going to be worth a few quid, but by the looks of that house you'd probably be better off knocklng it and starting again, bringing your costs up to near enough 2m. Not convinced that street is worth 2m.

I wonder is it priced to try and carve three or four sites out of it.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/greenways-manor-avenue-greystones-co-wicklow/4487256

Even if split into 3/4 sites, how would it make money at 1.25m? Maybe a block of apartments?

These are the only other two houses in that price range in Greystones on MyHome;

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/whitshed-lodge-whitshed-road-the-burnaby-greystones-co-wicklow/4470307

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/kircullen-kinlen-road-the-burnaby-greystones-co-wicklow/4448661

DataDude

schmittel wrote: »

Serious time warp house in Greystones for 1.275m

Interesting to see what this goes for.

On the one hand 283 sqm detached on guts of an acre in Greystones is always going to be worth a few quid, but by the looks of that house you'd probably be better off knocklng it and starting again, bringing your costs up to near enough 2m. Not convinced that street is worth 2m.

I wonder is it priced to try and carve three or four sites out of it.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/greenways-manor-avenue-greystones-co-wicklow/4487256

This is sale agreed at €1.375m a few hundred yards away. Given the money the other one we need pumped into it, I don’t see how Greenways is worth the asking. Unless, as you say, it’s attractive to developers rather than home buyers.
Both ‘kind of’ in the Burnaby...but not really.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/kircullen-kinlen-road-the-burnaby-greystones-co-wicklow/4448661

EDIT - FYI since mentioned by another poster. Whitshed Lodge has been up a while without much interest. One offer as of a couple weeks ago but described as ‘derisory’ by the EA and wouldn’t disclose the size of the bid. Whitshed also a much much more sought after location/address

hometruths

DataDude wrote: »

This is sale agreed at €1.375m a few hundred yards away. Given the money the other one we need pumped into it, I don’t see how Greenways is worth the asking. Unless, as you say, it’s attractive to developers rather than home buyers.
Both ‘kind of’ in the Burnaby...but not really.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/kircullen-kinlen-road-the-burnaby-greystones-co-wicklow/4448661

EDIT - FYI since mentioned by another poster. Whitshed Lodge has been up a while without much interest. One offer as of a couple weeks ago but described as ‘derisory’ by the EA and wouldn’t disclose the size of the bid. Whitshed also a much much more sought after location/address

Nearly but not quite the Burnaby. My thoughts exactly. Doesn't seem like that long ago that 1.25m went a long way in premium Burnaby.

Whitshed Lodge is great location but odd house I thought. Also seem to remember looking at it on google earth and thinking that kitchen windows (or some windows) seemed to be wide open onto neighbours boundary.

Cyrus

DataDude wrote: »

This is sale agreed at €1.375m a few hundred yards away. Given the money the other one we need pumped into it, I don’t see how Greenways is worth the asking. Unless, as you say, it’s attractive to developers rather than home buyers.
Both ‘kind of’ in the Burnaby...but not really.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/kircullen-kinlen-road-the-burnaby-greystones-co-wicklow/4448661

EDIT - FYI since mentioned by another poster. Whitshed Lodge has been up a while without much interest. One offer as of a couple weeks ago but described as ‘derisory’ by the EA and wouldn’t disclose the size of the bid. Whitshed also a much much more sought after location/address

1.375m seems a lot for that given they were keeping the single story annex but greystones prices are properly bonkers !

DataDude

schmittel wrote: »

Nearly but not quite the Burnaby. My thoughts exactly. Doesn't seem like that long ago that 1.25m went a long way in premium Burnaby.

Whitshed Lodge is great location but odd house I thought. Also seem to remember looking at it on google earth and thinking that kitchen windows (or some windows) seemed to be wide open onto neighbours boundary.

Yep, we would have a very loose interest in Whitshed but even having watched the video multiple times I still can’t really work out the ‘flow’ of the house. Garden out to the side is also strange. Took a walk up to it around Christmas and the house is astonishingly close to another just behind it as you say. From some angles it looks like they’re nearly touching

awec

The Greenways one has the potential to make a really interesting house for someone, but you would need really deep pockets.

Was it previously used as an old folks home?

The hall is enormous. Absurdly large. All the rooms are absurdly large actually.

There's a TV in one of the photos that I reckon would qualify as an antique!

hometruths

HansKroenke wrote: »

Even if split into 3/4 sites, how would it make money at 1.25m? Maybe a block of apartments?

These are the only other two houses in that price range in Greystones on MyHome;

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/whitshed-lodge-whitshed-road-the-burnaby-greystones-co-wicklow/4470307

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/kircullen-kinlen-road-the-burnaby-greystones-co-wicklow/4448661

Good few "mini developments" in the area where a developer shoehorns 4 detached houses with tiny gardens at 800k a piece into somebody's back garden.

I guess there might some profit in that kind of thing.

DataDude

Cyrus wrote: »

1.375m seems a lot for that given they were keeping the single story annex but greystones prices are properly bonkers !

It’s a monstrous house in the Burnaby (kind of) and one of the rare ones that’s been modernised. Distant sea views, nice south facing garden. I expected it to make more - I think the significant road noise + the granny flat being retained are the only reasons it didn’t.

Agreed though, prices in that part of Greystones in particular are incredible.