2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

decreds · 03-03-2021 08:43PM

schmittel wrote: »

50,000 a year is madness. He's allowing 10,000 a year for obsolescence which is insane. He says this is conservative! His other assumptions are equally bonkers.

Agreed, he talks an awful lot of dribble. Just because he called the last crash doesn't mean he is right with all his predictions.

Doesn't help with the endless Trump bashing on his podcast before you actually get to the content.

The best way to fix this market is raise interest rates and let the house of cards correct itself. That method won't happen anytime soon though so it will more likely be self sabotage when SF come to power.

mcsean2163 · 03-03-2021 08:59PM

Does anyone know if there's been a positive or negative immigration in 2020? I'm assuming negative but maybe I'm wrong?

Given it's now peak selling season but we're lockdown, we may not see houses coming on the market until June and probably many will miss the boat preferring to enjoy the summer holidays. So my guess is a tsunami of property this time next year.

Islandbridge new luxury development ... empty. Grand canal dock... empty. People have the economy and probably won't be coming back, so there should be a surplus of supply next year. I that about right?

mcsean2163 · 03-03-2021 09:00PM

Does anyone know if there's been a positive or negative immigration in 2020? I'm assuming negative but maybe I'm wrong?

Given it's now peak selling season but we're lockdown, we may not see houses coming on the market until June and probably many will miss the boat preferring to enjoy the summer holidays. So my guess is a tsunami of property this time next year.

Islandbridge new luxury development ... empty. Grand canal dock... empty. People have the economy and probably won't be coming back, so there should be a surplus of supply next year. I that about right?

decreds · 03-03-2021 09:04PM

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Does anyone know if there's been a positive or negative immigration in 2020? I'm assuming negative but maybe I'm wrong?

Given it's now peak selling season but we're lockdown, we may not see houses coming on the market until June and probably many will miss the boat preferring to enjoy the summer holidays. So my guess is a tsunami of property this time next year.

Islandbridge new luxury development ... empty. Grand canal dock... empty. People have the economy and probably won't be coming back, so there should be a surplus of supply next year. I that about right?

As far as immigration goes, they are still actively accepting economic migrants and i read on another thread (not sure if it's true) that the only new social housing is for direct provision/migrants? I haven't researched this though, if true, Paddy is well and truly being taken to the cleaners.

Your prediction about supply may be correct but i'd be more confident of it occurring in late 2023 or early 2024.

cnocbui · 03-03-2021 09:08PM

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Does anyone know if there's been a positive or negative immigration in 2020? I'm assuming negative but maybe I'm wrong?

Given it's now peak selling season but we're lockdown, we may not see houses coming on the market until June and probably many will miss the boat preferring to enjoy the summer holidays. So my guess is a tsunami of property this time next year.

Islandbridge new luxury development ... empty. Grand canal dock... empty. People have the economy and probably won't be coming back, so there should be a surplus of supply next year. I that about right?

I'm currently doing my level best to increase supply so I can exit, stage left.

PropQueries · 03-03-2021 09:10PM

decreds wrote: »

Agreed, he talks an awful lot of dribble. Just because he called the last crash doesn't mean he is right with all his predictions.

Doesn't help with the endless Trump bashing on his podcast before you actually get to the content.

The best way to fix this market is raise interest rates and let the house of cards correct itself. That method won't happen anytime soon though so it will more likely be self sabotage when SF come to power.

Interesting ECB survey on what EU citizens think of the ECB low interest rate policy was reported last month on RTÉ but went under the radar. The survey was performed by the ECB.

“more than half of the 3,960 participants saying the ECB's policy had a negative impact on them and just over 10% finding it positive.”

“A third said an ECB-fuelled rise in asset prices was "filling the pockets of those who already have financial wealth".

“Roughly half of the respondents came from the Netherlands or Germany - two savings-rich countries where these problems have been felt more acutely”

Some interesting comments from some of the people who completed the survey as well.

Link to article on RTÉ here: https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0209/1195965-ecb-survey-on-interest-rates/

hometruths · 03-03-2021 09:57PM

PropQueries wrote: »

Interesting ECB survey on what EU citizens think of the ECB low interest rate policy was reported last month on RTÉ but went under the radar. The survey was performed by the ECB.

“more than half of the 3,960 participants saying the ECB's policy had a negative impact on them and just over 10% finding it positive.”

“A third said an ECB-fuelled rise in asset prices was "filling the pockets of those who already have financial wealth".

“Roughly half of the respondents came from the Netherlands or Germany - two savings-rich countries where these problems have been felt more acutely”

Some interesting comments from some of the people who completed the survey as well.

Link to article on RTÉ here: https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0209/1195965-ecb-survey-on-interest-rates/

I predict some serious squabbling about interest rates in the eurozone. Wouldn't be so sure that the low rate policy is here for the long term.

hometruths · 03-03-2021 10:02PM

Serious time warp house in Greystones for 1.275m

Interesting to see what this goes for.

On the one hand 283 sqm detached on guts of an acre in Greystones is always going to be worth a few quid, but by the looks of that house you'd probably be better off knocklng it and starting again, bringing your costs up to near enough 2m. Not convinced that street is worth 2m.

I wonder is it priced to try and carve three or four sites out of it.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/greenways-manor-avenue-greystones-co-wicklow/4487256

cnocbui · 03-03-2021 10:08PM

Doesn't remotely look like it needs knocking down.

L1011 · 03-03-2021 10:13PM

I don't know how you'd rescue that layout without significant internal reconstruction. Its terrible.

HansKroenke · 03-03-2021 10:15PM

schmittel wrote: »

Serious time warp house in Greystones for 1.275m

Interesting to see what this goes for.

On the one hand 283 sqm detached on guts of an acre in Greystones is always going to be worth a few quid, but by the looks of that house you'd probably be better off knocklng it and starting again, bringing your costs up to near enough 2m. Not convinced that street is worth 2m.

I wonder is it priced to try and carve three or four sites out of it.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/greenways-manor-avenue-greystones-co-wicklow/4487256

Even if split into 3/4 sites, how would it make money at 1.25m? Maybe a block of apartments?

These are the only other two houses in that price range in Greystones on MyHome;

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/whitshed-lodge-whitshed-road-the-burnaby-greystones-co-wicklow/4470307

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/kircullen-kinlen-road-the-burnaby-greystones-co-wicklow/4448661

DataDude · 03-03-2021 10:19PM

schmittel wrote: »

Serious time warp house in Greystones for 1.275m

Interesting to see what this goes for.

On the one hand 283 sqm detached on guts of an acre in Greystones is always going to be worth a few quid, but by the looks of that house you'd probably be better off knocklng it and starting again, bringing your costs up to near enough 2m. Not convinced that street is worth 2m.

I wonder is it priced to try and carve three or four sites out of it.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/greenways-manor-avenue-greystones-co-wicklow/4487256

This is sale agreed at €1.375m a few hundred yards away. Given the money the other one we need pumped into it, I don’t see how Greenways is worth the asking. Unless, as you say, it’s attractive to developers rather than home buyers.
Both ‘kind of’ in the Burnaby...but not really.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/kircullen-kinlen-road-the-burnaby-greystones-co-wicklow/4448661

EDIT - FYI since mentioned by another poster. Whitshed Lodge has been up a while without much interest. One offer as of a couple weeks ago but described as ‘derisory’ by the EA and wouldn’t disclose the size of the bid. Whitshed also a much much more sought after location/address

hometruths · 03-03-2021 10:26PM

DataDude wrote: »

This is sale agreed at €1.375m a few hundred yards away. Given the money the other one we need pumped into it, I don’t see how Greenways is worth the asking. Unless, as you say, it’s attractive to developers rather than home buyers.
Both ‘kind of’ in the Burnaby...but not really.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/kircullen-kinlen-road-the-burnaby-greystones-co-wicklow/4448661

EDIT - FYI since mentioned by another poster. Whitshed Lodge has been up a while without much interest. One offer as of a couple weeks ago but described as ‘derisory’ by the EA and wouldn’t disclose the size of the bid. Whitshed also a much much more sought after location/address

Nearly but not quite the Burnaby. My thoughts exactly. Doesn't seem like that long ago that 1.25m went a long way in premium Burnaby.

Whitshed Lodge is great location but odd house I thought. Also seem to remember looking at it on google earth and thinking that kitchen windows (or some windows) seemed to be wide open onto neighbours boundary.

Cyrus · 03-03-2021 10:30PM

DataDude wrote: »

This is sale agreed at €1.375m a few hundred yards away. Given the money the other one we need pumped into it, I don’t see how Greenways is worth the asking. Unless, as you say, it’s attractive to developers rather than home buyers.
Both ‘kind of’ in the Burnaby...but not really.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/kircullen-kinlen-road-the-burnaby-greystones-co-wicklow/4448661

EDIT - FYI since mentioned by another poster. Whitshed Lodge has been up a while without much interest. One offer as of a couple weeks ago but described as ‘derisory’ by the EA and wouldn’t disclose the size of the bid. Whitshed also a much much more sought after location/address

1.375m seems a lot for that given they were keeping the single story annex but greystones prices are properly bonkers !

DataDude · 03-03-2021 10:32PM

schmittel wrote: »

Nearly but not quite the Burnaby. My thoughts exactly. Doesn't seem like that long ago that 1.25m went a long way in premium Burnaby.

Whitshed Lodge is great location but odd house I thought. Also seem to remember looking at it on google earth and thinking that kitchen windows (or some windows) seemed to be wide open onto neighbours boundary.

Yep, we would have a very loose interest in Whitshed but even having watched the video multiple times I still can’t really work out the ‘flow’ of the house. Garden out to the side is also strange. Took a walk up to it around Christmas and the house is astonishingly close to another just behind it as you say. From some angles it looks like they’re nearly touching

awec · 03-03-2021 10:34PM

The Greenways one has the potential to make a really interesting house for someone, but you would need really deep pockets.

Was it previously used as an old folks home?

The hall is enormous. Absurdly large. All the rooms are absurdly large actually.

There's a TV in one of the photos that I reckon would qualify as an antique!

hometruths · 03-03-2021 10:34PM

HansKroenke wrote: »

Even if split into 3/4 sites, how would it make money at 1.25m? Maybe a block of apartments?

These are the only other two houses in that price range in Greystones on MyHome;

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/whitshed-lodge-whitshed-road-the-burnaby-greystones-co-wicklow/4470307

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/kircullen-kinlen-road-the-burnaby-greystones-co-wicklow/4448661

Good few "mini developments" in the area where a developer shoehorns 4 detached houses with tiny gardens at 800k a piece into somebody's back garden.

I guess there might some profit in that kind of thing.

DataDude · 03-03-2021 10:36PM

Cyrus wrote: »

1.375m seems a lot for that given they were keeping the single story annex but greystones prices are properly bonkers !

It’s a monstrous house in the Burnaby (kind of) and one of the rare ones that’s been modernised. Distant sea views, nice south facing garden. I expected it to make more - I think the significant road noise + the granny flat being retained are the only reasons it didn’t.

Agreed though, prices in that part of Greystones in particular are incredible.

awec · 03-03-2021 10:40PM

DataDude wrote: »

It’s a monstrous house in the Burnaby (kind of) and one of the rare ones that’s been modernised. Distant sea views, nice south facing garden. I expected it to make more - I think the significant road noise + the granny flat being retained are the only reasons it didn’t.

Agreed though, prices in that part of Greystones in particular are incredible.

Most of the houses in that part of Greystones are head turners. Walking past you can't help but admire most of them.

hometruths · 03-03-2021 10:41PM

awec wrote: »

The Greenways one has the potential to make a really interesting house for someone, but you would need really deep pockets.

Was it previously used as an old folks home?

The hall is enormous. Absurdly large. All the rooms are absurdly large actually.

There's a TV in one of the photos that I reckon would qualify as an antique!

Bedroom 3 is 7.3m x 4.54m!!!

According to ad it has been home for same family for past 40 years. There something a bit depressing imagining the kids leaving home, and a couple rattling around in those giant rooms, growing apart simply because of the travel time within the house!

awec · 03-03-2021 10:46PM

schmittel wrote: »

Bedroom 3 is 7.3m x 4.54m!!!

According to ad it has been home for same family for past 40 years. There something a bit depressing imagining the kids leaving home, and a couple rattling around in those giant rooms, growing apart simply because of the travel time within the house!

Really? A family? Was it a family of 15?

The bedroom with the 2 blue double beds in it is making me laugh when I see it. It's huge! I don't even know what you'd put in it to make it seem less huge.

One of the bedrooms appears to only be accessible from outside.

Villa05 · 04-03-2021 12:47AM

Hubertj wrote:

I havenâ€™t got a clue what way prices will go. I still donâ€™t understand why they havenâ€™t fallen.

Low volume of sales, Gov and reits buying up new builds, people priced out of cities moving outside

Hubertj wrote:

Fully agree with the conversation around taxation. Sadly this country wonâ€™t have a mature conversation around this due to the outrageous populism which has engulfed Irish politics. Not the forum to go into it here.

A conversation on taxation needs to be balanced with outrageous public spending. No point in raising more taxes if Gov are pissing it away enriching the already wealthy

cnocbui wrote:

A grown up conversation in my eyes would be how Ireland is going to wean itself off low corporate tax as a competitive measure for attracting foreign employers and instead stimulate local home grown employment.

Difficult if the majority of lending in the country is to property
Business can't get the capital to grow and lending policy drives up their costs through higher property prices for the business and there employees

mcsean2163 wrote:

Does anyone know if there's been a positive or negative immigration in 2020? I'm assuming negative but maybe I'm wrong?

McWilliams said it was plus 30k in his podcast

Geuze · 04-03-2021 01:06AM

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Does anyone know if there's been a positive or negative immigration in 2020? I'm assuming negative but maybe I'm wrong?

Data is to April each year.

Data is estimated.

https://www.cso.ie/en/statistics/population/populationandmigrationestimates/

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/pme/populationandmigrationestimatesapril2020/

Geuze · 04-03-2021 01:06AM

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Does anyone know if there's been a positive or negative immigration in 2020? I'm assuming negative but maybe I'm wrong?

PR_600805_Population_&_Migration_Estimates_April_2020_Infographic_English.png

fliball123 · 04-03-2021 01:21AM

Yurt! wrote: »

You did a search on asking prices. There is not a snowballs that segment is going for on or under asking. Your argument falls apart pretty quickly on that score.

How do you know what the price of a property will go for?? some will go for higher some wont. your argument holds water if you have a crystal ball

PommieBast · 04-03-2021 01:22AM

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Does anyone know if there's been a positive or negative immigration in 2020? I'm assuming negative but maybe I'm wrong?

Hard to say. I'm guessing there is still a lot of people like myself who are officially in Ireland but in reality are overseas, which complicates the picture..

thefridge2006 · 04-03-2021 01:41AM

slightly off topic but where can you find out what TD owns what? or their other investments?

Graham · 04-03-2021 02:04AM

thefridge2006 wrote: »

slightly off topic but where can you find out what TD owns what? or their other investments?

The register of members interests

MacronvFrugals · 04-03-2021 10:28AM

The gift that keeps on giving...

Today's Indo - Property group that backed controversial shared equity scheme admits house prices may rise

A property group that lobbied the Government for a shared equity scheme has admitted that the scheme, now a part of the Affordable Housing Bill, may lead to an increase in house prices.

Property Industry Ireland (PII), a property arm of Ibec, wrote a discussion paper with a proposed structure for the scheme last year.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/property-group-that-backed-controversial-shared-equity-scheme-admits-house-prices-may-rise-40156486.html

JimmyVik · 04-03-2021 10:48AM

PommieBast wrote: »

Hard to say. I'm guessing there is still a lot of people like myself who are officially in Ireland but in reality are overseas, which complicates the picture..

Funny you should say that.
Our company called everyone back to the office for last August/September. There were a lot of people who are abroad working but havent told anyone who were bricking it. A couple even came back to Ireland before it was called off again. They went straight back abroad.
But when we are back in the office everyone will have to really be living in Ireland.
Definitely not the only company where this is happening

2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1