2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

awec · 26-02-2021 11:19AM

I didn't see this posted yet, but any former AirBnB landlords thinking they'll be able to flout the rules post-covid are in for a surprise.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/personal-finance/nowhere-to-hide-for-airbnb-hosts-as-revenue-tightens-the-tax-net-1.4493074

"Owners looking to let out properties on Airbnb must now hand over their personal tax details to the global home sharing platform, as Revenue steps up its oversight of the business.

While the accommodation portal has been sharing information on Irish host earnings with Revenue for some years now, a recent legislative change in Ireland means Airbnb is now also asking hosts for their PPS (personal public service) numbers, as well as the local property ID of the property being let out."

I think this is likely to lead to a combination of increased rental supply and increased supply for sale. Likely to have a larger impact on the rental market as I reckon the majority of it is small city apartments.

Cyrus · 26-02-2021 11:21AM

fliball123 wrote: »

Too many moving parts in the statement. Is Ireland affordable.

Anyone earning a decent salary and with a good deposit yes its affordable.

Anyone buying outside the major cities and surrounds. Yes its affordable

Anyone looking to buy in Dublin with out a decent salary - No its not affordable but there are other areas in the country that you probably could.

I am still at odds as to why people take Dublin prices and then extrapolate it throughout the rest of the country and then use it as an excuse that Ireland's property is too expensive.

As I have said before and I will say it again Dublin is a very desirable place to live and like every other major city in the world you must pay a premium if your competing with others who would like to live there too.

I could hazard a bet that a high % of Americans if they had the cash they would buy a penthouse appartment in Manhattan overlooking central park or into a mansion there in Bel Air but the premiums on these places are mindblowing. Not saying Dublin is either of these places or even in their ball park but then again either is the price of Dublin's property in comparison.

if people on the MEDIAN FT salary cant buy a 4 bed in ballsbridge as single person property is too expensive.

Am i doing it right?

fliball123 · 26-02-2021 11:51AM

Cyrus wrote: »

if people on the MEDIAN FT salary cant buy a 4 bed in ballsbridge as single person property is too expensive.

Am i doing it right?

Not sure what your trying to say here?

Galwayhurl · 26-02-2021 11:59AM

combat14 wrote: »

Almost half of apartments at Kennedy Wilson's 22-storey Capital Dock scheme are vacant

US property giant gets average rent of €2,126 in Dublin

The company generates significantly more rent on average from its residential properties here than it does in US locations such as Los Angeles.

https://m.independent.ie/business/commercial-property/us-property-giant-gets-average-rent-of-2126-in-dublin-40133442.html

wow shocked at how high the vacancy rates are ... surely this should be driving rents down

awec wrote: »

I didn't see this posted yet, but any former AirBnB landlords thinking they'll be able to flout the rules post-covid are in for a surprise.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/personal-finance/nowhere-to-hide-for-airbnb-hosts-as-revenue-tightens-the-tax-net-1.4493074

"Owners looking to let out properties on Airbnb must now hand over their personal tax details to the global home sharing platform, as Revenue steps up its oversight of the business.

While the accommodation portal has been sharing information on Irish host earnings with Revenue for some years now, a recent legislative change in Ireland means Airbnb is now also asking hosts for their PPS (personal public service) numbers, as well as the local property ID of the property being let out."

I think this is likely to lead to a combination of increased rental supply and increased supply for sale. Likely to have a larger impact on the rental market as I reckon the majority of it is small city apartments.

Right here we have 2 of the main reasons for our rental crisis. Vacant properties owned by REITs/Pension Funds and vacant properties owned by AirBnB users.

Tackling these 2 issues through

1. a vacant property tax
2. actually enforcing the laws that were brought in re AirBnB last year

would give us more housing stock than most people realise.

It's good to see Revenue making moves. Now let's tackle the likes of IRES and Irish Life.

The answers are literally staring the government in the face.

Pelezico · 26-02-2021 12:00PM

Cyrus wrote: »

if people on the MEDIAN FT salary cant buy a 4 bed in ballsbridge as single person property is too expensive.

Am i doing it right?

Not really..I should not have to tell you that

Cyrus · 26-02-2021 12:00PM

fliball123 wrote: »

Not sure what your trying to say here?

i am agreeing with you, basically if you were to listen to some posters everyone should be able to afford everything, and if they cant property is over priced.

Cyrus · 26-02-2021 12:01PM

Pelezico wrote: »

Not really..I should not have to tell you that

you dont need to tell me anything :pac:

DataDude · 26-02-2021 12:07PM

Cyrus wrote: »

if people on the MEDIAN FT salary cant buy a 4 bed in ballsbridge as single person property is too expensive.

Am i doing it right?

One thing that would be very interesting would be a distribution of household incomes layered over a distribution of house prices. I think that would be the most interesting dataset to assess affordability. Most analysis seem to focus solely on mean or median of both.

Household income distribution is easy to get, house values not so much. A few years ago I had looked at doing it but I think I came to the conclusion that you'd have to use the price register (for say last two years) as your house values distribution. Problem with that it is assumes that houses at all price points turnover at the same level of frequency. Don't know if that's true but instinctually I would say it doesn't.

That data would give you your definitive view on "affordability". I'd love to see if my gut instinct is true in that a huge percentage of people over 40 own homes that are not justified by their household income and therefore the distribution of house prices would be shifted much further to the right than a (household income *3.5(LTI))/90%(deposit) distribution. If anyone has an analysis like this to hand - please do share!

EDIT - Just did some back of cigarette box calculations (there are assumptions in this but interesting anyway). Gov.ie data says 14.1% of households earn over €100k per annum. On CBI rules €389k is the affordability for someone earning 100k. 19.4% of houses over the last year sold for over €389k. 1.9% of households earn over €200k. Equivalent figure is house price of €778k. 3.2% of houses sold for over this threshold over the last year.

Marius34 · 26-02-2021 12:15PM

Galwayhurl wrote: »

Right here we have 2 of the main reasons for our rental crisis. Vacant properties owned by REITs/Pension Funds and vacant properties owned by AirBnB users.

Tackling these 2 issues through

1. a vacant property tax
2. actually enforcing the laws that were brought in re AirBnB last year

would give us more housing stock than most people realise.

It's good to see Revenue making moves. Now let's tackle the likes of IRES and Irish Life.

The answers are literally staring the government in the face.

What that would give, why it's more that people think? Looking at this thread, people think there are higher vacancy than any reports/data suggest.
There were no high vacancy in those properties, outside Covid times. Obviously it may be fairly high now, but it will mostly solve on it's own when all the lockdowns ends.

ELM327 · 26-02-2021 12:21PM

Cyrus wrote: »

if people on the MEDIAN FT salary cant buy a 4 bed in ballsbridge as single person property is too expensive.

Am i doing it right?

I mistook this for a genuine woe is me post for a second. Well played.

jill_valentine · 26-02-2021 12:26PM

Cyrus wrote: »

i am agreeing with you, basically if you were to listen to some posters everyone should be able to afford everything, and if they cant property is over priced.

I don't think I've ever seen anyone suggest that even by accident. Conversation here orbits first time buyer/entry level properties, we wouldn't spend so much time talking about luxury apartments vs standard ones or AirBnBs were that not the case.

Cyrus · 26-02-2021 12:37PM

jill_valentine wrote: »

I don't think I've ever seen anyone suggest that even by accident. Conversation here orbits first time buyer/entry level properties, we wouldn't spend so much time talking about luxury apartments vs standard ones or AirBnBs were that not the case.

im half joking, no one has a sense of humour here either,

the best parts of this thread are where people discuss actual properties or areas to live, unfortunately it only makes up 5-10%.

hometruths · 26-02-2021 12:38PM

Marius34 wrote: »

What that would give, why it's more that people think? Looking at this thread, people think there are higher vacancy than any reports/data suggest.
There were no high vacancy in those properties, outside Covid times. Obviously it may be fairly high now, but it will mostly solve on it's own when all the lockdowns ends.

I believe the CSO vacancy figures to be correct.

It is more accurate to say that looking at this thread, some posters believe there are less vacancies than official reports suggest.

Marius34 · 26-02-2021 12:45PM

schmittel wrote: »

I believe the CSO vacancy figures to be correct.

It is more accurate to say that looking at this thread, some posters believe there are less vacancies that official reports suggest.

We went over and over what Census vacancy means.
Since poster spoke about tax, I believe poster has in mind typical longer term vacancy of 6 months and more.
You can not tax someone keeping their property vacant for the weekend, and for many other reasons what it may appear as vacant in Census reports.

hometruths · 26-02-2021 12:51PM

Marius34 wrote: »

We went over and over what Census vacancy means.
Since poster spoke about tax, I believe poster has in mind typical longer term vacancy of 6 months and more.
You can not tax someone keeping their property vacant for the weekend, and for many other reasons what it may appear as vacant in Census reports.

Indeed, and you believe that what CSO classes as vacant is not really vacant, it just "may appear as vacant" as you stated above.

Which is exactly why I said "It is more accurate to say that looking at this thread, some posters believe there are less vacancies that official reports suggest."

Marius34 · 26-02-2021 12:59PM

schmittel wrote: »

Indeed, and you believe that what CSO classes as vacant is not really vacant, it just "may appear as vacant" as you stated above.

Which is exactly why I said "It is more accurate to say that looking at this thread, some posters believe there are less vacancies that official reports suggest."

You don't get my point.
I do agree that if I go for weekend to visit my family, that my home can be considered as Vacant. But it does not serve the purpose for discussion on vacancy for tax reasons. For many when we discuss vacancy, we have in mind that is not in use for longer period in time. It's common to use a 6 month vacancy (or long term vacancy).

Zenify · 26-02-2021 01:10PM

Seeing a few more properties coming on the market compared to the last few months. Still not as much as this time last year though.

A lot of them look like they were rentals.

hometruths · 26-02-2021 01:27PM

Marius34 wrote: »

You don't get my point.
I do agree that if I go for weekend to visit my family, that my home can be considered as Vacant. But it does not serve the purpose for discussion on vacancy for tax reasons. For many when we discuss vacancy, we have in mind that is not in use for longer period in time. It's common to use a 6 month vacancy (or long term vacancy).

i do get your point. You dont think the census vacancy figures are a true reflection of vacancies because you think a lot of them are temporary vacancies.

Which is why i said some posters think there are less vacancies than official reports.

Marius34 · 26-02-2021 01:53PM

schmittel wrote: »

i do get your point. You dont think the census vacancy figures are a true reflection of vacancies because you think a lot of them are temporary vacancies.

Which is why i said some posters think there are less vacancies than official reports.

I thought it's clear that when I responded to poster about property tax on vacancy, I meant not temporal vacancy.
Since you so much into wording I should rephrase for you:
Looking at this thread, it seems some people think there are higher habitable longer term vacancy than any reports/data suggest.

Pelezico · 26-02-2021 01:55PM

Two houses on my street went up for sale three weeks ago. Both now sale agreed.

There is a lot of money around. There is also a lot of suffering around too with circa 10% of mortgages currently not being serviced.

Villa05 · 26-02-2021 02:06PM

Hubertj wrote:

Dublin City Council faces six-year wait for start of housing construction on its sites via The Irish Times

Hubertj wrote:

Some interesting points but hardly surprising. And some people think the issue is easy to fix. Easier to just blame the gubberment

The one positive thing about this thread is that it shines a light on those that get things right and those that are out of their depth, including many iuseful posts by yourself.

Continually DCC have proven to be an outlier in poor performance in housing provision. I think it would be best if there reports and testimony on housing were treated with a grain of salt
Many of the sorrounding councils seem to be able to deliver housing at a fraction of the cost when given the resources
Like any job you get those with competency and track record in performing the task

fliball123 wrote:

I am still at odds as to why people take Dublin prices and then extrapolate it throughout the rest of the country and then use it as an excuse that Ireland's property is too expensive.

We appear to be entering the phase where the bubble is spreading out from the major cities
But of course housing is affordable that's why every new house is subsidised by the state as well as 50% of the rents

Zenify · 26-02-2021 02:28PM

Really great interview about how markets can turn.

Mostly related to the US stock market.

'If history is to repeat itself we will see a crash this year, however history may not repeat itself'

'What causes markets to bubble is when everyone believes this time is different, we won't crash anymore. This one will keep going.'

'Markets usually don't turn on pessimistic news straight away, it's just a little less optimistic than yesterday. Then a little less than last week and so on.'

It's really a great interview and I recommend watching it.

https://youtu.be/Y_yRgMgBis0

fliball123 · 26-02-2021 02:36PM

Villa05 wrote: »

The one positive thing about this thread is that it shines a light on those that get things right and those that are out of their depth, including many iuseful posts by yourself.

Continually DCC have proven to be an outlier in poor performance in housing provision. I think it would be best if there reports and testimony on housing were treated with a grain of salt
Many of the sorrounding councils seem to be able to deliver housing at a fraction of the cost when given the resources
Like any job you get those with competency and track record in performing the task

We appear to be entering the phase where the bubble is spreading out from the major cities
But of course housing is affordable that's why every new house is subsidised by the state as well as 50% of the rents

Once again can you tell me how we are currently in a bubble. McWilliams in his show back in 2017 stated we were in one in the four years since our prices have gone up a bit, gone down a bit and gone back up a bit. Like I said yesterday this is hardly the properties of a bubble to see very little move in prices in 4 years.

As for affordability I maintain property in IRELAND is affordable for the majority. Dublin is not and maybe some other areas with large population sizes like Cork maybe less affordable then say Rosscommon or Tipperary. Dublin is a capital city with the best infrastructure and attractions when compared to the rest of the country it has the main airport and currently houses about 1/5 of the total population. ergo its a place the majority would like to live in and as such there is a premium to be paid. Just like London, Paris, New York, Sydney, Rome, Brussels, Copenhagen, Madrid, Berlin the list goes on and on. Why should Dublin be any different and we need to get away from using Dublin metrics extrapolating it for the rest of the country and using it as a measure of Ireland's property prices being too high

JimmyVik · 26-02-2021 02:44PM

Im going away for a year soon.
I would rent my house out while gone, but i might never get it back.
Then if someone decided not to pay the rent i have a whole world of hurt to deal with from far away, which would be hard enough to deal with were i still in Ireland.
Make it easy to get my house back when I want it and someone can rent it. I'll give them a good discount on rent too if they look after it.
But Ive basically been legislated out of letting it.

Mic 1972 · 26-02-2021 02:47PM

My 2 cents here, Dublin while being as expensive as London/Paris/Madrid it offers very little compared to other capital cities.
A city like Dublin wouldn't be very competitive in countries like UK or France for example.

We pay top dollar for average houses in dull estates.

Cyrus · 26-02-2021 02:48PM

Mic 1972 wrote: »

My 2 cents here, Dublin while being as expensive as London/Paris/Madrid

only its nowhere near as expensive.

and while it may not compare to london its streets ahead of any where else in ireland as a city and its our capital.

fliball123 · 26-02-2021 02:50PM

Mic 1972 wrote: »

My 2 cents here, Dublin while being as expensive as London/Paris/Madrid it offers very little compared to other capital cities.
A city like Dublin wouldn't be very competitive in countries like UK or France for example.

We pay top dollar for average houses in dull estates.

I am sorry have you looked at the prices in London/Paris and Madrid Dublin's house prices are a lot cheaper. If you feel so strongly then leave no one is putting a gun to anyone's head to buy or live here

DataDude · 26-02-2021 02:56PM

Clueless on fixer-uppers so was hoping I could source some experiences on here. I've looked all over the internet but get wild variations in estimates. Perhaps that's indicative of the fact that it's hard to estimate...but anyway:

Any thoughts on what it might cost to:

A) to retrofit this house (https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/36-albert-road-lower-glenageary-county-dublin/4485382) to B3 BER or better standard with nice modern finish (e.g. This level of internal quality fixtures/fittings https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/58-gledswood-park-clonskeagh-dublin-14/4484356)

Cost to extend by c.75m2 (if possible & subject to P.P.)

Would €150k - €200k for A and €200k - €250k for B sound about right or am I way off?

On a related point, when bidding on a fixer upper is it just up to you to have a fair idea of what it would cost to do up and just hope you don't get a surprise after the fact?
Or would it be possible to get a fairly reliable estimate before completing the sale? Assume you can't send out a tender on something you don't own but can you do something similar that you could place a strong reliance on?

Have heard horror stories from friends of costs escalating by huge amounts and am very keen to avoid if we do go down the fixer upper road.

hi! · 26-02-2021 02:58PM

fliball123 wrote: »

Once again can you tell me how we are currently in a bubble. McWilliams in his show back in 2017 stated we were in one in the four years since our prices have gone up a bit, gone down a bit and gone back up a bit. Like I said yesterday this is hardly the properties of a bubble to see very little move in prices in 4 years.

As for affordability I maintain property in IRELAND is affordable for the majority. Dublin is not and maybe some other areas with large population sizes like Cork maybe less affordable then say Rosscommon or Tipperary. Dublin is a capital city with the best infrastructure and attractions when compared to the rest of the country it has the main airport and currently houses about 1/5 of the total population. ergo its a place the majority would like to live in and as such there is a premium to be paid. Just like London, Paris, New York, Sydney, Rome, Brussels, Copenhagen, Madrid, Berlin the list goes on and on. Why should Dublin be any different and we need to get away from using Dublin metrics extrapolating it for the rest of the country and using it as a measure of Ireland's property prices being too high

Why should people that have to work in Dublin not be able to afford a home near it?

All the main big teaching hospitals are in Dublin....they need to be staffed.

fliball123 · 26-02-2021 03:07PM

hi! wrote: »

Why should people that have to work in Dublin not be able to afford a home near it?

All the main big teaching hospitals are in Dublin....they need to be staffed.

So now no one living in Dublin works in Dublin or in the surrounding counties??

Have you got any proof that currently Dublin has no one living in it that works there?? I know I am being a bit silly with that line of questioning but you get the point.

People make the decision to work in Dublin that decision is on them and their employers to sort something out. Hospitals should be incentivising staff and schools its students by having access to property and giving it out at lower rents. I know a lot of nursing homes have this for their staff the rent they pay is at a much lower rate than the norm in the area. Also there will be a lot more working from home as well which should ease the problem your talking about.

2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1