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Covid 19 Part XXXIII-231,484 ROI(4,610 deaths)116,197 NI (2,107 deaths)(23/03)Read OP

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  • #1382
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 3,270 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    KrustyUCC wrote: »
    Where did you see that vaccines only lasts 5 months?

    it's not me, they are saying owing to antibody tests, most show low amounts if any after 5 months..Not me, just what the EXPERTS SAY now to be clear.

    https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/immunity-to-sars-cov-2-lasts-at-least-six-months-data-show-68179

    some say 8 but I have seen 5 as the popular figure...and some say many months but not determined...if it's not determined why not years ???
    I don't get the flu jab and have not had flu in 18yrs..

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/14/health/lasting-immunity-covid-19-antibodies-studies/index.html


  • #1383
    bluelamp
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 255 ✭✭bluelamp


    retro:electro wrote: »
    Say we get down to <100 cases a day, hospital numbers <100 and <50 in ICU by mid April, but by then we still won’t have vaccinated all the elderly and vulnerable; do people think there will be a push to open up?

    There's already a push to open now so i would imagine so.


  • #1384
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,685 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    retro:electro wrote: »
    Say we get down to <100 cases a day, hospital numbers <100 and <50 in ICU by mid April, but by then we still won’t have vaccinated all the elderly and vulnerable; do people think there will be a push to open up?

    Yes public sentiment will change

    The government may still be paralysed with fear due to what happened at Christmas though


  • #1385
    Goldengirl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,278 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    runawaybishop wrote: »
    Think there are just over 2 million considered elderly and/or vulnerable. If we get to 1 mill vaccines a month, which we are supposed to from march, then we should have them mainly covered by mid-late may.

    This does not take into account 2nd doses does it , but hopefully the supplies of new vaccines will step up the amount being vaccinated to compensate ?
    I have seen estimates but I can't see how it will happen to be honest .
    I an thinking it will be July not June , when we can start to relax a bit , and if I hold that thought I won't be disappointed if that is how it transpires .


  • #1386
    Utopia Parkway
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,033 ✭✭✭✭Utopia Parkway


    techdiver wrote: »
    We really need to just stop the zero covid talk. It's ridiculous and can not work here if you like luxuries such as food. We have a land border with another jurisdiction that won't have matching restrictions and more importantly we do not come even remotely close to having the required infrastructure to operate lolo (driverless) freight.

    Have these zero covid zealots come up with a detailed plan for how it could be implemented without completely crippling the country. So far I've only seen opportunistic politicians and people from a medical background with no other qualifications or viewpoint of anything apart from pure covid numbers.

    Whatever about doing it last Summer or a few months ago, with the British and hence the North on a different and faster timescale of opening up now it's just not going to be possible and continually arguing for it just looks a bit mental and fundamentalist now. Vaccinate as fast as possible and supress the numbers until we reach a critical mass is the only game in town now.


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  • #1387
    Charles Babbage
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,566 ✭✭✭Charles Babbage


    Deeper Blue wrote: »
    At least two of them predicted 50,000+ deaths, that's just off the top of my head.

    I seriously worry about anyone that can't see how damaging these "scientists" are to our society.

    They need to go away.


    If there had been no rmeasures there would have been 50,000+ deaths. It was not "damaging" for them to say that, or me for that matter.


  • #1388
    CruelSummer
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,338 ✭✭✭CruelSummer


    User142 wrote: »
    Hopefully the media will read the room and stop giving complete cynics regular slots to promote their rubbish, which it appears they purposely slant to try and alarm and depress the public into buying into their plan.




    That poll is from during the post Christmas surge and we are going to have a 3 month lockdown.... They really are struggling here! Falsely equating supporting level 5 with their zero covid. Pray this knocks the wind form their sails.

    ISAG twitter account tweeted 17 times in response to the Irish Times poll trying to change its results. Sounds like a similar reaction a certain orange skinned man had in the US when he lost the election.


  • #1389
    Goldengirl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,278 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    KFC bucket sounds good but maybe a Magnum instead for dessert ?


  • #1390
    Wolf359f
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,541 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    retro:electro wrote: »
    Say we get down to <100 cases a day, hospital numbers <100 and <50 in ICU by mid April, but by then we still won’t have vaccinated all the elderly and vulnerable; do people think there will be a push to open up?

    I think that's why we'll need a proper plan presented by the government.
    If it's the case that we're only weeks away from finishing up vaccinating the most vulnerable, and cases <100 as you say, along with very few in hospital, the government needs to say that, to communicate to us in a proper coherent way. That we just need to hold out till X date and we can then open up more rapidly than if we tried opening up slowly while finishing off the vulnerable vaccinations.


  • #1391
    Plumbthedepths
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭Plumbthedepths


    Cork2021 wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/anmailleach/status/1365059461220618241?s=21

    What a burn.


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  • #1392
    lee_baby_simms
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,511 ✭✭✭lee_baby_simms


    Charles Babbage wrote: »
    If there had been no rmeasures there would have been 50,000+ deaths. It was not "damaging" for them to say that, or me for that matter.

    Not damaging. Not true either.


  • #1393
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,685 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    Goldengirl wrote: »
    KFC bucket sounds good but maybe a Magnum instead for dessert ?

    Salted caramel.Magnum anyone?


  • #1394
    bluelamp
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 255 ✭✭bluelamp


    CruelSummer wrote: »
    ISAG twitter account tweeted 17 times in response to the Irish Times poll trying to change its results. Sounds like a similar reaction a certain orange skinned man had in the US when he lost the election.

    I think the attempt of scaring people with the variants had the opposite effect of what they hoped.

    It actually made a lot of people come to the realisation that we won't out run this, that it genuinely is something we have to accept some level or risk with, vaccination + boosters, and get on with life as before.


  • #1395
    Turtwig
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,578 ✭✭✭✭Turtwig


    retro:electro wrote: »
    Say we get down to <100 cases a day, hospital numbers <100 and <50 in ICU by mid April, but by then we still won’t have vaccinated all the elderly and vulnerable; do people think there will be a push to open up?

    There probably will be. It would be Ill advised to not do it in a cautious manner.

    What % of the non vulnerable will end up in hospital? How many non vulnerable are there? Will we have vaccinated all the vulnerable? How many people would you estimate lie in the under 65s that have undiagnosed health conditions that make them vulnerable?

    It's not as simple as vaccinate the vulnerable and 2019 life resumes. Restrictions are going to have to remain in some guise until herd immunity. The key thing is getting the balance right that once we relax a restriction we don't have to reimpose it.


  • #1396
    KrustyUCC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,086 ✭✭✭KrustyUCC


    rusty cole wrote: »
    it's not me, they are saying owing to antibody tests, most show low amounts if any after 5 months..Not me, just what the EXPERTS SAY now to be clear.

    https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/immunity-to-sars-cov-2-lasts-at-least-six-months-data-show-68179

    some say 8 but I have seen 5 as the popular figure...and some say many months but not determined...if it's not determined why not years ???
    I don't get the flu jab and have not had flu in 18yrs..

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/14/health/lasting-immunity-covid-19-antibodies-studies/index.html

    Thanks for that

    Are those articles on about immunity after recovering from COVID though as opposed to immunity from the vaccines?


  • #1397
    Goldengirl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,278 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    rusty cole wrote: »
    it's not me, they are saying owing to antibody tests, most show low amounts if any after 5 months..Not me, just what the EXPERTS SAY now to be clear.

    https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/immunity-to-sars-cov-2-lasts-at-least-six-months-data-show-68179

    some say 8 but I have seen 5 as the popular figure...and some say many months but not determined...if it's not determined why not years ???
    I don't get the flu jab and have not had flu in 18yrs..

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/14/health/lasting-immunity-covid-19-antibodies-studies/index.html

    Sure they can't say longer yet but it's looking better every month .
    This is not the flu , by the way .


  • #1398
    Goldengirl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,278 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    Stheno wrote: »
    Salted caramel.Magnum anyone?

    Now then , Bertie's horse , all better ? :D


  • #1399
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,685 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    Turtwig wrote: »
    There probably will be. It would be Ill advised to not do it in a cautious manner.

    What % of the non vulnerable will end up in hospital? How many non vulnerable are there? Will we have vaccinated all the vulnerable? How many people would you estimate lie in the under 65s that have undiagnosed health conditions that make them vulnerable?

    It's not as simple as vaccinate the vulnerable and 2019 life resumes. Restrictions are going to have to remain in some guise until herd immunity. The key thing is getting the balance right that once we relax a restriction we don't have to reimpose it.

    I'd be very much in support of this approach tbh

    Now I do wfh etc so feel the need to say that

    However I think a large chunk of the population will find it takes time to return to 2019 type behaviours. Most of my peer group feel the same tbh, we have changed how we work and interact so significantly and for so long that we almost will have to do the same again

    Now might I also say I'd love nothing more than to be able to go out with my Oh for a drink!


  • #1400
    bluelamp
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 255 ✭✭bluelamp


    Stheno wrote: »
    Most of my peer group feel the same tbh, we have changed how we work and interact so significantly and for so long that we almost will have to do the same again

    I've heard this a lot, and have thought it myself. I'd say work practices have changed forever (for the better IMO).

    On the other hand, I think socialising in pubs, clubs, restaurants, family gatherings, dating, holidays abroad etc will rebound extremely quickly once allowed.

    They're the things that bring us the most happiness in life, and I don't see that changing. Sure it will feel a little strange at first - but my god I'm looking forward to it.


  • #1401
    Charles Babbage
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,566 ✭✭✭Charles Babbage


    lee_baby_simms wrote: »
    Not damaging. Not true either.



    In the absence of measures, pretty much everyone would get the disease and the health service would be entirely overwhelmed so that the death rate would be 3 or 4 times what it has been.



    Which part of this sentence is not true?


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  • #1402
    Plumbthedepths
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭Plumbthedepths


    Charles Babbage wrote: »
    In the absence of measures, pretty much everyone would get the disease and the health service would be entirely overwhelmed so that the death rate would be 3 or 4 times what it has been.



    Which part of this sentence is not true?

    You don't seem so sure yourself tbh..
    https://touch.boards.ie/thread/reply/2058162864/post/116409136


  • #1403
    lee_baby_simms
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,511 ✭✭✭lee_baby_simms


    Charles Babbage wrote: »
    In the absence of measures, pretty much everyone would get the disease and the health service would be entirely overwhelmed so that the death rate would be 3 or 4 times what it has been.



    Which part of this sentence is not true?

    I thought it was 50k+?

    You should run your models again.


  • #1404
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 3,733 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Turtwig wrote: »
    There probably will be. It would be Ill advised to not do it in a cautious manner.

    What % of the non vulnerable will end up in hospital? How many non vulnerable are there? Will we have vaccinated all the vulnerable? How many people would you estimate lie in the under 65s that have undiagnosed health conditions that make them vulnerable?

    It's not as simple as vaccinate the vulnerable and 2019 life resumes. Restrictions are going to have to remain in some guise until herd immunity. The key thing is getting the balance right that once we relax a restriction we don't have to reimpose it.

    NPHET don't believe we will reach herd immunity through vaccines alone. I wonder what their plan will be then.


  • #1405
    Goldengirl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,278 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    Deleted User wrote: »
    NPHET don't believe we will reach herd immunity through vaccines alone. I wonder what their plan will be then.

    Really ?


  • #1406
    Charles Babbage
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,566 ✭✭✭Charles Babbage


    lee_baby_simms wrote: »
    I thought it was 50k+?

    You should run your models again.


    If I was wrong then point out where I was wrong.

    I said that pretty much everyone would get it, say 4m people in ROI.
    I said that would totally overwhelm the health service, you hardly dispute that.

    I said the death rate would be 3 or 4 times at least, presently the death rate is about 0.5%, so 1.5-2%. 1.5% of 4 million is 60,000.



    Stop posting meaningless statements like "run your models agian" and point out where I am in error.


  • #1407
    lee_baby_simms
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,511 ✭✭✭lee_baby_simms


    Charles Babbage wrote: »
    If I was wrong then point out where I was wrong.

    I said that pretty much everyone would get it, say 4m people in ROI.
    I said that would totally overwhelm the health service, you hardly dispute that.

    I said the death rate would be 3 or 4 times at least, presently the death rate is about 0.5%, so 1.5-2%. 1.5% of 4 million is 60,000.



    Stop posting meaningless statements like "run your models agian" and point out where I am in error.

    How do you know everyone would get it? You don’t.

    How do you know how many people have actually had it including asymptomatics? You don’t know. No one does.

    So you’re essentially pulling numbers out of thin air based on a “what I reckon” reasoning.


  • #1408
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 4,806 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    lee_baby_simms wrote: »
    How do you know everyone would get it? You don’t.

    How do you know how many people have actually had it including asymptomatics? You don’t know. No one does.

    So you’re essentially pulling numbers out of thin air based on a “what I reckon” reasoning.

    And not looking at evidence of what did happen in countries that didn’t lockdown.

    I guess every Swede caught Covid and 100000+ died...


  • #1409
    ceadaoin.
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,702 ✭✭✭ceadaoin.


    Charles Babbage wrote: »
    If I was wrong then point out where I was wrong.

    I said that pretty much everyone would get it, say 4m people in ROI.
    I said that would totally overwhelm the health service, you hardly dispute that.

    I said the death rate would be 3 or 4 times at least, presently the death rate is about 0.5%, so 1.5-2%. 1.5% of 4 million is 60,000.



    Stop posting meaningless statements like "run your models agian" and point out where I am in error.

    There is no evidence that "pretty much everyone" would get it at all. I dont think any virus has a 100% infection rate. Natural resistance/immunity is a thing.

    This hasn't happened in places that have been fully open since last year, eg Florida. Or where I live has had all shops, restaurants, casinos, hair/nail salons etc open since May and I know of 2 people who caught it. 2. Maybe more did and didn't have symptoms but in that case, does it matter?


  • #1410
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 3,733 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Goldengirl wrote: »
    Really ?

    It was on the middle of the Twitter thread that was linked above. I know it mentions the WHO'S believe that the world needs to be vaccinated so perhaps that's where they are coming from.
    Herd immunity only when the whole world is vaccinated.


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  • #1411
    Charles Babbage
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,566 ✭✭✭Charles Babbage


    lee_baby_simms wrote: »
    How do you know everyone would get it? You don’t.


    Why should they not get it? You have no reason to suppose they won't get it.

    How do you know how many people have actually had it including asymptomatics? You don’t know. No one does


    Many countries have done antibody testing. About one quarter of people in the UK have had it, for instance. Despite all the measures up to 40% have had it in some cities, so the idea that most people would get it without measures is not at all fanciful.
    So you’re essentially pulling numbers out of thin air based on a “what I reckon” reasoning.


    In proposing what might happen, you start with reasonable assumptions and proceed from there. You have failed to show that my assumptions are not reasonable.

    Deleted User wrote: »
    And not looking at evidence of what did happen in countries that didn’t lockdown.

    I guess every Swede caught Covid and 100000+ died...

    I didn't say lockdown, I said measures. There have been plenty of measures in Sweden.


This discussion has been closed.
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