2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

PropQueries · 24-02-2021 11:49PM

For everyone hoping that Ireland will get lucky again during the upcoming negotiations on the OECD global tax reforms, the FT has just reported that:

“UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak will use the election of Joe Biden as partial cover for a big Budget increase in corporation tax rates, arguing that the US president is also planning a hike in business taxes.”

If these tax reforms don’t go our way, how long do people believe the American funds who control our property market will stay around for?

Link to FT article here: https://www.ft.com/content/55f9d53f-b100-4073-814b-156cc6729040

Graham · 24-02-2021 11:56PM

PropQueries wrote: »

If these tax reforms don’t go our way, how long do people believe the American funds who control our property market will stay around for?

I don't think the REITs are here for low corporation tax.

If the companies that hold the mortgages decide to move on, they'll sell the mortgages to another party.

If corporation taxes increase globally that would surely be good for us given the number of international companies based here and our new increased tax take.

Timing belt · 25-02-2021 12:02AM

PropQueries wrote: »

For everyone hoping that Ireland will get lucky again during the upcoming negotiations on the OECD global tax reforms, the FT has just reported that:

“UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak will use the election of Joe Biden as partial cover for a big Budget increase in corporation tax rates, arguing that the US president is also planning a hike in business taxes.”

If these tax reforms don’t go our way, how long do people believe the American funds who control our property market will stay around for?

Link to FT article here: https://www.ft.com/content/55f9d53f-b100-4073-814b-156cc6729040

Biden is not going to raise taxes unless very strong economic recovery...even his own party would stop him...even all the pro democrat news have being saying that it won’t happen unless we see the economy boom to do so otherwise would be worse than the Irish government guaranteeing every bank deposit.

Cyrus · 25-02-2021 12:06AM

schmittel wrote: »

One of the reasons small time landlords are leaving/not entering the market is due to income tax rates.

Of course income tax is included in what I meant in a buyer considering potential future tax/legislation changes. Obtuse at best to insinuate otherwise.

Well nothing has materially changed with income tax for years , so how does this support your thesis of all of these properties out there coming onto the market and solving the apparent shortage issues ?

Obtuse is on the money .

Cyrus · 25-02-2021 12:07AM

PropQueries wrote: »

For everyone hoping that Ireland will get lucky again during the upcoming negotiations on the OECD global tax reforms, the FT has just reported that:

“UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak will use the election of Joe Biden as partial cover for a big Budget increase in corporation tax rates, arguing that the US president is also planning a hike in business taxes.”

If these tax reforms don’t go our way, how long do people believe the American funds who control our property market will stay around for?

Link to FT article here: https://www.ft.com/content/55f9d53f-b100-4073-814b-156cc6729040

I really hope the oecd comes through for you , you’ve gone big on this one in particular.

PropQueries · 25-02-2021 12:11AM

Graham wrote: »

I don't think the REITs are here for low corporation tax.

If the companies that hold the mortgages decide to move on, they'll sell the mortgages to another party.

If corporation taxes increase globally that would surely be good for us given the number of international companies based here and our new increased tax take.

Once again

The €200 billion they purchased between 2012 and 2016 were not mortgages. They were property and business loans and obviously mostly property loans.

Ires Reit has a market cap of less than a €1billion so would account, at a maximum, for less than 0.5% of that €200 billion figure. Say even €100 billion of the rest is due to UK loans etc, (it’s not anywhere near that figure though), that still leaves us with at least over €100 billion they bought in Ireland between 2012 and 2016.

I’m not worried about the corporate tax rises in the UK and the USA. I’m worried they will close off every single tax loophole which is why multinationals are here.

No multinationals, no jobs. No jobs, no workers. No workers, no demand for housing. That is, the American funds who control our property market sell up and leave.

PropQueries · 25-02-2021 12:19AM

Cyrus wrote: »

I really hope the oecd comes through for you , you’ve gone big on this one in particular.

Don’t blame the messenger

I’m actually a great help to existing landlords and property investors. If I’m right, shouldn’t our fellow Irish property investors make their move before the funds do?

Once the funds make their move, it’s too late IMO

Graham · 25-02-2021 12:22AM

PropQueries wrote: »

They were property and business loans and obviously mostly property loans

PropQueries wrote: »

that still leaves us with at least over €100 billion they bought in Ireland between 2012 and 2016.

Even accepting the beermat estimates, an exit would mean the loans got sold on. I don't see the major impact.

I also don't buy the corporation exodus if our corporation tax rates go up in line with a global increase.

We'd no doubt lose some of the virtual/shell operations in the IFSC but outside of that I think we still have enough going for us that the handful of losses would be mitigated by our larger corporation tax take.

Cyrus · 25-02-2021 12:23AM

PropQueries wrote: »

Don’t blame the messenger

I’m actually a great help to existing landlords and property investors. If I’m right, shouldn’t our fellow Irish property investors make their move before the funds do?

Once the funds make their move, it’s too late IMO

Well I have no property investments so I’m safe but I’m also pretty sure the results of the global tax reform won’t have anything like the impact that you believe it will either.

Timing belt · 25-02-2021 12:26AM

PropQueries wrote: »

Once again

The €200 billion they purchased between 2012 and 2016 were not mortgages. They were property and business loans and obviously mostly property loans.

Ires Reit has a market cap of less than a €1billion so would account, at a maximum, for less than 0.5% of that €200 billion figure. Say even €100 billion of the rest is due to UK loans etc, (it’s not anywhere near that figure though), that still leaves us with at least over €100 billion they bought in Ireland between 2012 and 2016.

I’m not worried about the corporate tax rises in the UK and the USA. I’m worried they will close off every single tax loophole which is why multinationals are here.

No multinationals, no jobs. No jobs, no workers. No workers, no demand for housing. That is, the American funds who control our property market sell up and leave.

Irish housing stock is about 1.8m 1/3 of people rent. If you assume 50% of these are owned by government and 50% by funds then you get to about 100bn assuming avg house being 350k. So we are talking about c 300,000 properties in Ireland. So why will they sell and leave all at once? And won’t another fund just buy the property so it has zero impact or are you saying no-one will buy them because they will get a better return elsewhere?

PropQueries · 25-02-2021 12:29AM

Graham wrote: »

Even accepting the beermat estimates, an exit would mean the loans got sold on. I don't see the major impact.

I also don't buy the corporation exodus if our corporation tax rates go up in line with a global increase.

We'd no doubt lose some of the virtual/shell operations in the IFSC but outside of that I think we still have enough going for us that the handful of losses would be mitigated by our larger corporation tax take.

So the American and UK governments are going to increase their corporation taxes and still allow the Googles etc. to keep pretending that they makes all their worldwide profits outside the United States in Ireland?

Possible but highly unlikely IMO

We can increase corporation taxes all we like. But 90% of zero is still zero.

Cyrus · 25-02-2021 12:34AM

PropQueries wrote: »

So the American and UK governments are going to increase their corporation taxes and still allow the Googles etc. to keep pretending that they makes all their worldwide profits outside the United States in Ireland?

Possible but highly unlikely IMO

We can increase corporation taxes all we like. But 90% of zero is still zero.

Google pretends it makes all its profits in Ireland? That’s a misnomer and a half .

PropQueries · 25-02-2021 12:36AM

Timing belt wrote: »

Irish housing stock is about 1.8m 1/3 of people rent. If you assume 50% of these are owned by government and 50% by funds then you get to about 100bn assuming avg house being 350k. So we are talking about c 300,000 properties in Ireland. So why will they sell and leave all at once? And won’t another fund just buy the property so it has zero impact or are you saying no-one will buy them because they will get a better return elsewhere?

I reckon their exit strategy will be to first ask the government what they want to buy and then flog the rest on MyHome at c. 25% of current market prices.

Given what they probably initially purchased them for, they’ll probably still walk away with double their initial investment IMO

PropQueries · 25-02-2021 12:37AM

Cyrus wrote: »

Google pretends it makes all its profits in Ireland? That’s a misnomer and a half .

Said outside the states

Timing belt · 25-02-2021 12:39AM

PropQueries wrote: »

So the American and UK governments are going to increase their corporation taxes and still allow the Googles etc. to keep pretending that they makes all their worldwide profits outside the United States in Ireland?

Possible but highly unlikely IMO

We can increase corporation taxes all we like. But 90% of zero is still zero.

UK and USA designed most of the international tax loop holes. Even China has its version of Vegas to get funds out and into other countries to avail of tax loopholes....The OECD is a smoke screen and as effective as a chocolate tea pot.

PropQueries · 25-02-2021 12:43AM

Timing belt wrote: »

UK and USA designed most of the international tax loop holes. Even China has its version of Vegas to get funds out and into other countries to avail of tax loopholes....The OECD is a smoke screen and as effective as a chocolate tea pot.

Maybe we’re entering a new era?

Timing belt · 25-02-2021 12:45AM

PropQueries wrote: »

I reckon their exit strategy will be to first ask the government what they want to buy and then flog the rest on MyHome at c. 25% of current market prices.

Given what they probably initially purchased them for, they’ll probably still walk away with double their initial investment IMO

Another fund would buy...the properties change hands regularly and loads of institutional investors out there.

Timing belt · 25-02-2021 12:53AM

PropQueries wrote: »

Maybe we’re entering a new era?

Maybe... let’s wait and watch to see if Biden closes all the loopholes in his home state of Delaware... the uk closes tax loopholes with BVI, CI, IOM... oh wait that’s not happening because everyone is using the loopholes.

It would be hard to find a property on the high streets in London that is not registered to a company/fund/trust in one of these locations.

Lobbying and political donations would need stop if they were ever serious as to much money in play.

PropQueries · 25-02-2021 01:03AM

Timing belt wrote: »

Maybe... let’s wait and watch to see if Biden closes all the loopholes in his home state of Delaware... the uk closes tax loopholes with BVI, CI, IOM... oh wait that’s not happening because everyone is using the loopholes.

It would be hard to find a property on the high streets in London that is not registered to a company/fund/trust in one of these locations.

Lobbying and political donations would need stop if they were ever serious as to much money in play.

Some good points. But as you say, there’s too much money at play and by that I mean the UK and US debt levels.

I’m sure they would have no problem throwing countries like Ireland under a bus.

Biden may keep the Delaware loopholes but at the same time he may also prefer if Google hired the 8,000 staff they apparently employ in Dublin in his home state instead?

Timing belt · 25-02-2021 01:09AM

PropQueries wrote: »

Some good poinuts. But as you say, there’s too much money at play and by that I mean the UK and US debt levels.

I’m sure they would have no problem throwing countries like Ireland under a bus.

Biden may keep the Delaware loopholes but at the same time he may also prefer if Google hired the 8,000 staff they apparently employ in Dublin in his home state instead?

I think it safe to say that the money that got him into office would prefer it the jobs in Dublin...

MacronvFrugals · 25-02-2021 01:12AM

Timing belt wrote: »

Maybe... let’s wait and watch to see if Biden closes all the loopholes in his home state of Delaware... the uk closes tax loopholes with BVI, CI, IOM... oh wait that’s not happening because everyone is using the loopholes.

It would be hard to find a property on the high streets in London that is not registered to a company/fund/trust in one of these locations.

Lobbying and political donations would need stop if they were ever serious as to much money in play.

There’s a normal gaf in Drumcondra with 125 companies registered there, was in the Panama Papers a few years back.

PropQueries · 25-02-2021 01:18AM

Timing belt wrote: »

I think it safe to say that the money that got him into office would prefer it the jobs in Dublin...

I actually think it would be in his donors interests for those jobs to be back in the states and take a relatively small hit now.

The next version of Trump may not be so friendly towards these groups.

bilbot79 · 25-02-2021 01:35AM

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

There’s a normal gaf in Drumcondra with 125 companies registered there, was in the Panama Papers a few years back.

St Luke's no doubt ðŸ˜‚

Graham · 25-02-2021 01:48AM

PropQueries wrote: »

and then flog the rest on MyHome at c. 25% of current market prices.

I can imagine that particular board meeting.

So folks, we're thinking of exiting the Irish market. What do you reckon to just selling it all off for a quarter of its value? Obviously we could get 4 times that amount but is that what we really want. Show of hands.........

Seriously props, it's just silly.

Graham · 25-02-2021 01:49AM

bilbot79 wrote: »

St Luke's no doubt ��

ok, I'll admit it. I laughed.

I've no idea where in St Luke's you'd fit 125 brass name plates though.

25-02-2021 02:07AM

PropQueries wrote: »

Some good points. But as you say, there’s too much money at play and by that I mean the UK and US debt levels.

I’m sure they would have no problem throwing countries like Ireland under a bus.

Biden may keep the Delaware loopholes but at the same time he may also prefer if Google hired the 8,000 staff they apparently employ in Dublin in his home state instead?

Trump would have liked that too. As would have Obama. Yet here we are, bigger than ever.

cnocbui · 25-02-2021 03:21AM

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

There’s a normal gaf in Drumcondra with 125 companies registered there, was in the Panama Papers a few years back.

When the EU was trying to set a standard requiring ownership transparency of trusts, such that no matter the chain of hidey hole company names and lawyers offices, the true owners of the trust and the assets had to be revealed, Ireland objected strongly and voted against.

This country is one of the worst EU citizens and is almost a rogue state. While ordinary people can't open bank accounts because of the ludicrous know your customer boll0cks, supposedly there to stop money laundering, the government does it's best to facilitate huge companies in avoiding paying tax anywhere and the rich in hiding their wealth and assets and doing likewise.

The place runs on double standards and hypocrisy and goes to great lengths in protecting criminals and wrongdoers - the church - from answering for their crimes and hiding unpleasant truths from sight and scrutiny - sealing mothers and babies in deep holes and filling them in.

But the craics great.

MacronvFrugals · 25-02-2021 10:18AM

cnocbui wrote: »

When the EU was trying to set a standard requiring ownership transparency of trusts, such that no matter the chain of hidey hole company names and lawyers offices, the true owners of the trust and the assets had to be revealed, Ireland objected strongly and voted against.

This country is one of the worst EU citizens and is almost a rogue state. While ordinary people can't open bank accounts because of the ludicrous know your customer boll0cks, supposedly there to stop money laundering, the government does it's best to facilitate huge companies in avoiding paying tax anywhere and the rich in hiding their wealth and assets and doing likewise.

The place runs on double standards and hypocrisy and goes to great lengths in protecting criminals and wrongdoers - the church - from answering for their crimes and hiding unpleasant truths from sight and scrutiny - sealing mothers and babies in deep holes and filling them in.

But the craics great.

Would you not just put on the green jersey cnoc?

Timing belt · 25-02-2021 10:30AM

cnocbui wrote: »

When the EU was trying to set a standard requiring ownership transparency of trusts, such that no matter the chain of hidey hole company names and lawyers offices, the true owners of the trust and the assets had to be revealed, Ireland objected strongly and voted against.

This country is one of the worst EU citizens and is almost a rogue state. While ordinary people can't open bank accounts because of the ludicrous know your customer boll0cks, supposedly there to stop money laundering, the government does it's best to facilitate huge companies in avoiding paying tax anywhere and the rich in hiding their wealth and assets and doing likewise.

The place runs on double standards and hypocrisy and goes to great lengths in protecting criminals and wrongdoers - the church - from answering for their crimes and hiding unpleasant truths from sight and scrutiny - sealing mothers and babies in deep holes and filling them in.

But the craics great.

To be fair the same could be said about most countries...take UK for example it let’s it’s offshore centers operate for loopholes and the uk facilitate’s legal laundering of cash from Russia, China etc.....it protected child abusers for years and helped cover it up... it even had its own mothers and babies scandal

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/society/2018/jun/10/mps-demand-apology-for-unmarried-mothers-forced-to-give-up-children

fliball123 · 25-02-2021 11:11AM

PropQueries wrote: »

They bought 90,000 mortgages AND €200 billion in property and business loans between 2012 and 2016.

I’ll agree the mortgages are meaningless but it’s the other €200 billion in property and business loans they purchased that I’m interested in. And that was only between 2012 and 2016.

The banks and NAMA weren’t selling off many solvent property and business loans.

So, now we have a few American funds who probably control the majority of those investment properties and land banks that were purchased in the latter years of the Celtic Tiger.

And, outside of one documentary on RTÉ in January 2017, there’s been no real analysis of what they they bought and now control.

I would put it at a much greater potential risk to the Irish economy than shadow banking is to the world economy IMO

We basically have a few CEOs in boardrooms in the United States with their finger on the trigger of the Irish property market.

If only one of them gets cold feet, it’s armageddon for the Irish property market IMO

They bought mortgages in that bundle and if they are mortgages on a home that is owned and lived in by someone it will be hard as hell for them to stake a claim in that property. You have been screaming Armageddon now for almost a year now and still no sign of it and in that time we have seen lock down after lockdown and brexit come and go and guess what still no Armageddon

Your like the boy who cried wolf when it does actually happen anyone following you on here wont believe it as you have been spouting it so long and so loudly

2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1