2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

Hubertj · 23-02-2021 09:39PM

schmittel wrote: »

The important thing about the programme is was he living in a 7 figure house at the time. Or was it only 6 figures?

Does he care?

cnocbui · 23-02-2021 09:41PM

Timing belt wrote: »

NASDAQ has not even dropped 10% !!!!

Too late - I just counted four people plummeting past my window to their splattery deaths in the last 15 min.

hometruths · 23-02-2021 09:44PM

Cyrus wrote: »

2017 it was probably still a 6 figure house .

You’re welcome .

Can we get any other 3 year old production that will help us with this thread about the 2021 property market ?

Was it the same 6 figure house that has since become a 7 figure house thanks to price inflation, or has he since purchased a 7 figure house?

Important to get the the context right with the big issues I think.

hometruths · 23-02-2021 09:59PM

Timing belt wrote: »

Seems unlikely that we will see significant inflation in the next 12-18 months based on ECB predictions.

What would you consider to be significant inflation? ECB's target is under 2%.

Whatever about the next 12-18 months, we saw a fairly significant rise in January. Given the current circumstances, it can only go one way IMO.

Annual inflation in the 19 countries sharing the euro jumped to 0.9% in January from -0.3% over the previous four months, Eurostat said today, the highest rate in nearly a year and beating economists' expectation for 0.5%.

The surge was primarily driven by the reversal of an earlier German tax cut, a rise in energy costs as oil prices surged and higher food prices, even as the cost of imported goods fell over the previous month.

Underlying inflation showed a similar surge. Inflation excluding food and energy costs, a key indicator watched by the ECB, rose to 1.4% from 0.4%.

Euro zone inflation rate surges in January

Cyrus · 23-02-2021 10:02PM

schmittel wrote: »

Was it the same 6 figure house that has since become a 7 figure house thanks to price inflation, or has he since purchased a 7 figure house?

Important to get the the context right with the big issues I think.

No sold one late 6 figure house and moved to the 7 figure house .

Clear now ?

Good lad

So any more 3 year old tv programs to inform the current property market ?

hometruths · 23-02-2021 10:15PM

Cyrus wrote: »

No sold one late 6 figure house and moved to the 7 figure house .

Clear now ?

Good lad

So any more 3 year old tv programs to inform the current property market ?

Clear. Good lad.

liam7831 · 23-02-2021 10:17PM

Bidding on house in Cork was €450 last week now up to €520. Asking was €450

thefridge2006 · 23-02-2021 10:30PM

decreds wrote: »

With technology stocks dropping an average of 30% over the past 10 days, i would call that a crash.

How long before it creeps into the property market remains to be seen. Winter is coming

Batten down the hatches. It's going to be rough

Timing belt · 23-02-2021 10:31PM

schmittel wrote: »

What would you consider to be significant inflation? ECB's target is under 2%.

Whatever about the next 12-18 months, we saw a fairly significant rise in January. Given the current circumstances, it can only go one way IMO.

Euro zone inflation rate surges in January

Exactly it would have been deflation only for the reversal of germany’s Vat reduction which is a one off and not something we will see every month

Timing belt · 23-02-2021 10:35PM

liam7831 wrote: »

Bidding on house in Cork was €450 last week now up to €520. Asking was €450

15% increase in a week..that’s crazy. Was it undervalued to attract bidders or is WFH driving up prices as people on a Dublin wage outbid local workers

hometruths · 23-02-2021 10:46PM

Timing belt wrote: »

Exactly it would have been deflation only for the reversal of germany’s Vat reduction which is a one off and not something we will see every month

Exactly indeed.

The reduction was a once off. Presumably the temporary rate cut last year had a deflationary effect. As did the lockdowns etc.

The reversal of the deflationary causes of the past year are exactly why I think it can only go one way.

Timing belt · 23-02-2021 10:50PM

schmittel wrote: »

Exactly indeed.

The reduction was a once off. Presumably the temporary rate cut last year had a deflationary effect. As did the lockdowns etc.

The reversal of the deflationary causes of the past year are exactly why I think it can only go one way.

Well we are not seeing it in the CPI yet lets see if feb can post inflation

Hubertj · 23-02-2021 11:04PM

This would be lovely.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/toor-waterville-kerry/4465506

HansKroenke · 23-02-2021 11:07PM

Hubertj wrote: »

This would be lovely.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/toor-waterville-kerry/4465506

Very nice. If I was only up in the office once every two weeks (ideally even less) I'd strongly consider somewhere like that.

Cyrus · 23-02-2021 11:15PM

thefridge2006 wrote: »

Batten down the hatches. It's going to be rough

Maybe if tech stocks had dropped anywhere like 30 percent in that period .

But that is fake news .

23-02-2021 11:19PM

Hubertj wrote: »

This would be lovely.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/toor-waterville-kerry/4465506

Fabulous

PommieBast · 23-02-2021 11:53PM

Hubertj wrote: »

This would be lovely.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/toor-waterville-kerry/4465506

Is that thing in pic 8 & 9 a fireplace or TV?

Billythekid19 · 24-02-2021 12:08AM

liam7831 wrote: »

Bidding on house in Cork was €450 last week now up to €520. Asking was €450

You could say the exact opposite is true for this house in cork. Asking price is 520 but current closest bid is 450! https://www.auctioneera.ie/property/68-thomas-davis-street-blackpool-cork-t23-e205

Hubertj · 24-02-2021 12:25AM

PommieBast wrote: »

Is that thing in pic 8 & 9 a fireplace or TV?

Think it’s a fireplace. Really nice place.

cnocbui · 24-02-2021 12:27AM

Billythekid19 wrote: »

You could say the exact opposite is true for this house in cork. Asking price is 520 but current closest bid is 450! https://www.auctioneera.ie/property/68-thomas-davis-street-blackpool-cork-t23-e205

It's a 125 sq m. It's a pokey little cramped hole with a supposed valuation of €520 K.

It's not worth €300K, let alone 450. There must be next to no availability in Cork whatsoever.

Billythekid19 · 24-02-2021 12:33AM

cnocbui wrote: »

It's a 125 sq m. It's a pokey little cramped hole with a supposed valuation of €520 K.

It's not worth €300K, let alone 450. There must be next to no availability in Cork whatsoever.

Yeah supply is fairly chronic at the moment. An investor could easily get 600 euro per room for that house. 36 grand a year gives a healthy 7 per cent annual yield from investment.

cnocbui · 24-02-2021 12:39AM

PommieBast wrote: »

Is that thing in pic 8 & 9 a fireplace or TV?

It's a wood burning stove. In pic 25 you can see the SS flue on the roof.

cnocbui · 24-02-2021 01:14AM

bubblypop wrote: »

Over the years I have lived in many different properties.
My favourites were two old houses, built in the 1850s. Open fires, one did have oil heating. Old sash windows.
Character.
I'd live in one any day before the boring boxes they build now. A rated houses can't even have a fire.
There's some beautiful buildings in Dublin, shops in the ground floor, with 3 storeys empty above. There would be many people that would love to live in the city, in apartments with some character.
It could bring a new life to those buildings.

Speaking of fireplaces - this sort of thing?

PropQueries · 24-02-2021 08:12AM

In today's Irish Times, there's an article on free rent incentives at Greystars Dublin Landings apartment scheme in the Docklands and other apartment schemes in Dublin to attract tenants:

"Dublin tenants are being offered up to six-weeks rent free at a luxury docklands apartment development, as the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic is starting to kick in on Dublin’s rental market."

It also goes on to say:

"But Greystar is not the only landlord to offer an incentive to putative tenants, as the duration of the Covid-19 pandemic starts to have an impact on Dublin’s rental market, particularly at the top end.

A two-bed apartment in Gallery Quay, on Dublin’s south docklands for example, is currently being advertised for €2,650 a month, with one-month free, while a two-bed penthouse at Beacon South Quarter in Sandyford, south Dublin is available to rent for €2,300 a month. It is also offering a month’s free rent however, which brings the monthly cost for the year down to €2,108.

Similarly, a penthouse apartment at Richmond Hall in Fairview is using the incentive of one free month of rent to bring the monthly cost on the one-bed down from €1,700 to €1,558 for the first year."

However, this is obviously not due to covid as back in February 2020 (pre-covid), the Sunday Business Post had an article:

"The luxury gap: hundreds of high-end apartments lying empty across Dublin. Unoccupied units at upmarket rental apartment schemes in the capital are compared to boomtime ‘ghost estates’ by critics."

So, there was little demand for these types of units pre-covid and there will obviously be little demand post-covid, so how long before investors realise these type of units will most likely never pay out unless the state rents them? Will the state rent them and in effect bail them out?

Link to article in today's Irish Times: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/free-rent-incentive-offered-on-luxury-docklands-apartments-1.4493311

Link to article in SBP back in February 2020: https://www.businesspost.ie/ireland/the-luxury-gap-hundreds-of-high-end-apartments-lying-empty-across-dublin-ac7da06c?cmpredirect

HansKroenke · 24-02-2021 08:44AM

Has Dublin Built Too Many Luxury Apartments?

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/personal-finance/has-dublin-built-too-many-luxury-apartments-1.4493278?mode=amp

45% of properties to rent in Dublin have rents in excess of 2k per month, which I think is seen as luxury for the purpose of the article.

In the Docklands, Owen Reilly the estate agent reckons rents fell 13% in the first 9 months of covid restrictions, with higher drops in the 3k+ market.

Goodbody estimates 30% vacancy in luxury new builds.

Estimates for high end properties are for a decline in rents this year and next but for the modest properties perhaps even a little growth. Modest is around 1600 per month according to Ires REIT but even the article questions that claim.

Edit: I notice it was already posted. Will need to set the alarm for earlier in the morning next time.

PropQueries · 24-02-2021 09:06AM

schmittel wrote: »

What would you consider to be significant inflation? ECB's target is under 2%.

Whatever about the next 12-18 months, we saw a fairly significant rise in January. Given the current circumstances, it can only go one way IMO.

According to the FT today:

"European manufacturers are passing higher input costs on to their customers, sending eurozone inflation to its highest level for almost a year as shortages of materials and soaring shipping costs disrupt supply chains.

Efforts to cushion rising costs are driven by the sentiment that supply chain bottlenecks are unlikely to ease in the short term, according to industry and shipping executives. More expensive manufactured goods are in turn fuelling expectations of a further surge in inflation, which Germany’s central bank is already warning will reach its highest level since the 2008 financial crisis by the end of this year."

I think what you said about inflation is about right. It's coming and the ECB won't be able to control it without interest rate rises IMO. The USA is having a massive fiscal stimulus package so that's going to most likely raise inflation over there.

It's now regarded as near enough gospel that central bank policies had basically nothing to do with controlling inflation over the past 20 years and the primary reason for the low "official" inflation rates was cheaper and better technology for the masses in addition to China and Eastern Europe flooding the market with cheap goods and a large supply of additional relatively cheap labour which kept inflation down.

Both China and Eastern Europe are now much more advanced economies so this excess supply is drying up fairly fast and inflation is about to take off big time no matter what the ECB thinks they can do to try control it. The ECB economists will then revert to their old college textbooks on what to do and then raise interest rates more quickly and higher than many believe IMO

Link to article in FT today: https://www.ft.com/content/7aef28eb-ce0c-49a4-b7cc-06d89478c44c

PropQueries · 24-02-2021 10:22AM

HansKroenke wrote: »

Has Dublin Built Too Many Luxury Apartments?

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/personal-finance/has-dublin-built-too-many-luxury-apartments-1.4493278?mode=amp

45% of properties to rent in Dublin have rents in excess of 2k per month, which I think is seen as luxury for the purpose of the article.

In the Docklands, Owen Reilly the estate agent reckons rents fell 13% in the first 9 months of covid restrictions, with higher drops in the 3k+ market.

Goodbody estimates 30% vacancy in luxury new builds.

Estimates for high end properties are for a decline in rents this year and next but for the modest properties perhaps even a little growth. Modest is around 1600 per month according to Ires REIT but even the article questions that claim.

Edit: I notice it was already posted. Will need to set the alarm for earlier in the morning next time.

It's looks like many Irish citizens in their 20s, 30, and 40s are now actually living through one of those dystopian future sci-fi movies we used to watch years ago.

Cyrus · 24-02-2021 10:56AM

it could well be bad news for those luxury apartment developments, they rely on exclusivity, tempting local downsizers to sell their 4000 sq foot redbrick and pay a couple of million for a 2000 sq foot 3 bed, if there is any sniff of social they wont be buying.

fliball123 · 24-02-2021 11:09AM

Cyrus wrote: »

No sold one late 6 figure house and moved to the 7 figure house .

Clear now ?

Good lad

So any more 3 year old tv programs to inform the current property market ?

I just watched it he never touched on some of the main differences between 2008 and 2017.

Credit - No 100% mortgages this time
Oversupply - ghost estates anyone

These 2 are not an issue now.

It was comical and seemed really odd from the rock duo intros to the comic with the comb over and in the 4 years since prices have gone up a bit , come down a bit and gone back up a bit. No huge drops and no huge rises year on year. I am all for hearing opinions but he really only concentrated in Dublin just goes to show you how a show like this can date as there was no mention of working from home and how this will change the landscape of Dublin vs the rest of the country and never mentioned the fact that globally usually the capital cities are ones that people want to live in therefore you must pay a premium. He had no one in to dispute his opinion and looking at it 4 years on it was a waste of time making it, watching it and I have lost an hour I will never get back .

fliball123 · 24-02-2021 11:15AM

PropQueries wrote: »

In today's Irish Times, there's an article on free rent incentives at Greystars Dublin Landings apartment scheme in the Docklands and other apartment schemes in Dublin to attract tenants:

"Dublin tenants are being offered up to six-weeks rent free at a luxury docklands apartment development, as the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic is starting to kick in on Dublin’s rental market."

It also goes on to say:

"But Greystar is not the only landlord to offer an incentive to putative tenants, as the duration of the Covid-19 pandemic starts to have an impact on Dublin’s rental market, particularly at the top end.

A two-bed apartment in Gallery Quay, on Dublin’s south docklands for example, is currently being advertised for €2,650 a month, with one-month free, while a two-bed penthouse at Beacon South Quarter in Sandyford, south Dublin is available to rent for €2,300 a month. It is also offering a month’s free rent however, which brings the monthly cost for the year down to €2,108.

Similarly, a penthouse apartment at Richmond Hall in Fairview is using the incentive of one free month of rent to bring the monthly cost on the one-bed down from €1,700 to €1,558 for the first year."

However, this is obviously not due to covid as back in February 2020 (pre-covid), the Sunday Business Post had an article:

"The luxury gap: hundreds of high-end apartments lying empty across Dublin. Unoccupied units at upmarket rental apartment schemes in the capital are compared to boomtime ‘ghost estates’ by critics."

So, there was little demand for these types of units pre-covid and there will obviously be little demand post-covid, so how long before investors realise these type of units will most likely never pay out unless the state rents them? Will the state rent them and in effect bail them out?

Link to article in today's Irish Times: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/free-rent-incentive-offered-on-luxury-docklands-apartments-1.4493311

Link to article in SBP back in February 2020: https://www.businesspost.ie/ireland/the-luxury-gap-hundreds-of-high-end-apartments-lying-empty-across-dublin-ac7da06c?cmpredirect

No one will know until everything opens back up . They are taking a gamble but its a good way to keep your rent up offering a free month. Sure if they can afford to wait till covid is gone good luck to them

2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1