The GOP Primary 2024

Rjd2 · 23-02-2021 12:58am #1

Car crash for sure but will be compelling viewing.

So runners and riders

Its pointless not to start with Trump. Early signs are he will run to avenge how the election was "stole" from him . :pac:

I do think if he runs and can somehow dodge all the investigations he will face and no health scares (74 years old and obese) he will be the frontrunner for the nomination.

"Best " of the rest?

Nikki Haley remains solid second favorite with the bookies for the nomination. I'l probably regret this, but everything about her screams Jeb 2016, donor's love her but she has no base in the real world.

She is not clever enough to keep those who loath Trumpism and those who don't on side.

She probably bombs like Jeb and Harris in her respective run.

Pence I can't predict. He ticks a lot of boxes but not sure he has the charisma to win a primary, he will do well however. He is a good debater and has the God Squad in his pocket.

Outside of the big three, its very messy.

Governors its hard to look past De Santis and Noem. De Santis is one of the few unlike Haley who will excite the Trump base but won't have a problem with the so called moderate Republican voters assuming he doesn't get to Trumpy.

Noem will run with an eye on becoming VP rather than actual winning the primary.

Hawley is to wonky and insincere for the Trump base. Nobody likes Ted Cruz and I think Rubio will not be able to shake of the stink of his 2016 run.

We probably will get some who will run on anti Trump vibe such as Sasse, Hogan, but they are wasting their time.

Others like Tim and Ric Scott if they run have even less of a chance.

If looking for total outsiders maybe someone like Dave Portney or God Forbid Candance Owens.

Eric Cartman · 23-02-2021 11:47am

De Santis for me.

the trump base is a factor now, one that can't be ignored and the vote could split if they did. the GOP realistically needs to channel as much Reagan energy as they can. De Santis might be the closest on the board to that.

ancapailldorcha · 23-02-2021 11:53am

Don't recognise a few names. Any of the commentariat wouldn't perform well as they'd resemble Trump too much IMO. I'm not familiar with DeSantis so I chose Romney from the list.

Kermit.de.frog · 23-02-2021 1:11pm

SNIP. No insults please.

Romney has shown a lot of common sense and some courage openly criticising Trump in the last few years so if I had to choose I'd say Romney.

Ted Cruz is in the type of trouble that probably rules him out.

Nody · 23-02-2021 4:53pm

My vote and hope is for Trump snr to run; about the easiest way to ensure Democrats stay in power. As the primary is not about what works in the general election but to win the extremes on the ground Trump has a big shoe in for that reason with fanatical supporters which is required for the primary (but lose the middle which is required for the election). Yes; I know people will say "but look at the numbers he brought out in the 2020 election" but forget that the Democrats brought out even bigger numbers due to Trump being on the R ticket. Add in the fact Trump has cost many senate seats etc. and Trump is a pretty much a sure loser to run for election (I doubt the next four years will bring up positive news about him and his time in power) but the most likely candidate because his ego can't have it any other way. If that happens I expect that many republican donors will quietly reduce or stop their donations as well as it's seen as throwing away money to support him (but will given token amounts of course).

Eric Cartman · 23-02-2021 5:35pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

SNIP. No insults please.

Romney has shown a lot of common sense and some courage openly criticising Trump in the last few years so if I had to choose I'd say Romney.

Ted Cruz is in the type of trouble that probably rules him out.

I think thats why Romney won't get it. Its not about who people want to run, its about the most sensible choice for the GOP and somebody trump voter friendly who isn't trump is their absolute best bet.

Rjd2 · 23-02-2021 6:14pm

Nody makes a fine point regarding Trump , he makes everything about him.

The Georgia run offs were a good example, he tied himself to Loeffer and Perdue thus the anti Trump voters came out in droves but because he was not actually on the ballot and moaned like his associates that "elections were corrupt" his core supporters stayed away. The worst of both worlds.

Mitt Romney is interesting atm, words I never thought I would type.

Even if you ignore his opposition to Trump, he is actually one of the least Orthodox GOP big hitters atm. While many cling to Zombie Reganism " MUH SOCIALISM" ,,he is trotting out some interesting financial ideas while so many others focus exclusively on tedious culture war issues.

Nikki Haley for example is stuck in the 80's, absolute stereotype of a candidate.

Brussels Sprout · 23-02-2021 8:21pm

If Trump stays out of legal trouble and doesn't deteriorate too rapidly health-wise he'll walk it.

Mitt Romney hasn't a prayer. Perhaps in a world where the Republican party hasn't collectively lost its mind; where 70% of Republicans don't believe that the election was stolen he might have a chance. That ship has sailed. Nowadays you either need be a true believer in Trumpism or at least cynically go along with it to be able to compete. Romney doesn't fit into either category and his vote to convict Trump is an immediate disqualifier anyway.

Pompeo is a 1-dimensional copy of some parts of Trump but missing the rest of the ingredients that made Trump successful with the base.

As I write this Dan Crenshaw is third in the poll. I'm willing to be corrected on this but I don't believe a member of the House has won a nomination since James Garfield in 1880. Another problem with Crenshaw is that he's quite short. That shouldn't matter, but it appears to. Male presidential nominees tend to be taller than average rather then smaller than average.

Rjd2 · 23-02-2021 9:55pm

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

If Trump stays out of legal trouble and doesn't deteriorate too rapidly health-wise he'll walk it.

Mitt Romney hasn't a prayer. Perhaps in a world where the Republican party hasn't collectively lost its mind; where 70% of Republicans don't believe that the election was stolen he might have a chance. That ship has sailed. Nowadays you either need be a true believer in Trumpism or at least cynically go along with it to be able to compete. Romney doesn't fit into either category and his vote to convict Trump is an immediate disqualifier anyway.

Pompeo is a 1-dimensional copy of some parts of Trump but missing the rest of the ingredients that made Trump successful with the base.

As I write this Dan Crenshaw is third in the poll. I'm willing to be corrected on this but I don't believe a member of the House has won a nomination since James Garfield in 1880. Another problem with Crenshaw is that he's quite short. That shouldn't matter, but it appears to. Male presidential nominees tend to be taller than average rather then smaller than average.

Crenshaw is very dangerous.

A lot of those candidates thankfully have no chance of winning, but this guy is excellent at culture wars , has a interesting backstory , is presentable and quite charismatic.

You like Neoconservatism?

Well you're going to absolutely love Dan.

I'm much more worried about him than Cotton who thankfully has zero charisma.

[Deleted User] · 23-02-2021 11:09pm

Crenshaw was born in Scotland.

mcmoustache · 24-02-2021 12:52am

Assuming for a moment that Trump is still walking around free and in livable health, it can only be him. The republican party is mostly the Trump party at this point. There are a lot of candidates there who love Trump and claim to be just like him but at the end of the day, nothing really sets them apart from each other. They're just a bunch of pretenders while Trump is the only Trump. Those candidates who try to straddle both sides of the GOP aren't getting anywhere and the likes of Romney have no chance while Trump is still around.

That's the thing with a cult of personality. You get the personality and you get the sycophants trying to ride the coat tails. The mob wants the personality. They don't want the the guys with brown on their nose or white one their chin. They want Trump.

Primary voters might settle for another Trump but Trump's kids are, to put it mildly, devoid of any kind of acumen.

This may be wishful thinking on my part but I don't see a middle ground between Reagani/Bush types and the Trump/Q types and the Trump/Q types are very much on the ascendancy if not already running the show.

Fr Tod Umptious · 24-02-2021 1:06am

Deleted User wrote: »

Crenshaw was born in Scotland.

If you are saying that as a suggestion that he is not eligible to become president, he actually is.

His parents were American so he therefore is a naturally born American which makes him eligible.

Hello 2D Person Below · 24-02-2021 1:22am

Nikki Haley.

Brussels Sprout · 24-02-2021 12:59pm

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

If you are saying that as a suggestion that he is not eligible to become president, he actually is.

His parents were American so he therefore is a naturally born American which makes him eligible.

Yes. John McCain was born in Panama but was a naturalised citizen through his American parents and successfully won the nomination. Ironically enough it was his opponent in the general election, who was actually born in the USA, who faced questions about his eligibility - funny that!

Ted Cruz was also born abroad (Canada). His own father was also born abroad (Cuba) and only became a US citizen in 2005. He had an American mother though and he also was able to run for President without it being raised as an issue.

It's only people like Arnold Schwarzenegger, born abroad to non US citizen parents, who fall foul of that rule.

StringerBell · 24-02-2021 3:14pm

Rafael Cruz will never win the nomination, Christ what an odious individual!

PalLimerick · 24-02-2021 3:16pm

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Don't recognise a few names. Any of the commentariat wouldn't perform well as they'd resemble Trump too much IMO. I'm not familiar with DeSantis so I chose Romney from the list.

Romney, has two chances, little and none.

breatheme · 24-02-2021 5:19pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Crenshaw was born in Scotland.

To American parents though, and he never held British citizenship. He's a natural born citizen, like McCain and Ted Cruz, thus eligible to run according to the Constitution.

ETA: Whoops, was beaten to it. Should've refreshed before hitting reply.

Fr Tod Umptious · 24-02-2021 6:14pm

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Yes. John McCain was born in Panama but was a naturalised citizen through his American parents and successfully won the nomination. Ironically enough it was his opponent in the general election, who was actually born in the USA, who faced questions about his eligibility - funny that!

Ted Cruz was also born abroad (Canada). His own father was also born abroad (Cuba) and only became a US citizen in 2005. He had an American mother though and he also was able to run for President without it being raised as an issue.

It's only people like Arnold Schwarzenegger, born abroad to non US citizen parents, who fall foul of that rule.

Going off topic here, but sure it's 3 years away so plenty of time to get back on topic.

Anyway - in Clinton's second term Secretary of State Madeleine Albright would have been past over in the line of succession as she was born in the then Czechoslovakia and only became a naturalized American later.

Same would go for Henry Kissinger

Rjd2 · 25-02-2021 7:17am

PalLimerick wrote: »

Romney, has two chances, little and none.

Amusingly Romney of 2021 could have won 2012.

I'm not even discussing the Trump fisticuffs , but its interesting to see Romney slowly beginning to recognise that Zombie Reganism is not the way to win elections nor what the base want.

He was a cliche in 2012 to say the least.

Wanderer78 · 25-02-2021 7:40am

Very likely 24 will indeed be a car crash, and a very scary one at that, I truly can't see the dems achieving much during this term

Peregrinus · 25-02-2021 7:45am

Eric Cartman wrote: »

I think thats why Romney won't get it. Its not about who people want to run, its about the most sensible choice for the GOP and somebody trump voter friendly who isn't trump is their absolute best bet.

It's not about the most sensible choice for the GOP. The most sensible choice for the GOP is the Republican most likely to win the general election. But the person most likely to win the primary is the person with the greatest appeal to the Republican base.

There's some overlap here, since the person who appeals to the base is likely to be good at getting the base to turn out in the general election.

But that's not enough, since it's hard for the Republicans to win the general election with their base alone - they have the smaller base and, for demographic reasons, this problem is getting worse and worse for them over time.

Recall that in both the general elections that Trump contested, he lost the popular vote. It's possible to win the general election while losing the popular vote, but it requires nifty footwork and a degree of good luck. And the problem with Trump as a candidate is that, while he's good at turning out the base, he's even better at turning out the voters who loathe him. Both of the elections that Trump contested were characterised by unusually high turnouts, and in both he lost the popular vote. The conventional wisdom is that higher turnout tends to favour the Democrats and, while this may be less true than it used to be, the 2020 election certainly conforms to that pattern. This view is certainly the reason why Republican tactics for improving their electoral chances so largely feature vote suppression measures.

Because the Republican base is the smaller base, the optimal candidate for the
Republicans is one who can attract votes from the uncommitted centre. That's not Trump, or any little Trumplet who will pander to Trump. So that is definitely not who the party would like to see win the primary.

But that may not matter, since the party doesn't get to determine who wins the primary; the base does. The GOP's nightmare is that the base will chose a Trumpy candidate who will turn out the base but appal and revolt the middle ground, and motivate them to support the Democratic candidate rather than stay at home.

Peregrinus · 25-02-2021 7:53am

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Very likely 24 will indeed be a car crash, and a very scary one at that, I truly can't see the dems achieving much during this term

Since the Civil War, seven US Presidents have sought re-election but failed to get it. Six of the seven have been Republicans (Carter is the sole Democrat).

I think Americans have been profoundly shocked by the manifestations of Trumpism they've seen in the past four or five months. However rough a ride Biden may have over the next four years, I don't think Trumpism will be sufficiently rehabilitated to be a benefit the Republican ticket by 2024.

Wanderer78 · 25-02-2021 7:57am

Peregrinus wrote:

I think Americans have been profoundly shocked by the manifestations of Trumpism they've seen in the past four or five months. However rough a ride Biden may have over the next four years, I don't think Trumpism will be sufficiently rehabilitated to be a benefit the Republican ticket by 2024.

I'm not so sure about that, people have had enough, it's gonna take a lot more than this term to resolve many of issues, and it's looking very likely this admin is just defaulting to the norm, that won't wash with the electorate, I'm expecting mayhem in 24, but I hope you're right, because........

Peregrinus · 25-02-2021 8:19am

Wanderer78 wrote: »

I'm not so sure about that, people have had enough, it's gonna take a lot more than this term to resolve many of issues, and it's looking very likely this admin is just defaulting to the norm, that won't wash with the electorate, I'm expecting mayhem in 24, but I hope you're right, because........

Oh, it may well be difficult for the Dems in '24. My point is just that the selection of a Trumpy candidate for the Pubs will make things a little bit easier for the Dems than if the Pubs select a more centrist candidate. Trumpiness does not enhance electability.

Wanderer78 · 25-02-2021 8:23am

Peregrinus wrote:

Oh, it may well be difficult for the Dems in '24. My point is just that the selection of a Trumpy candidate for the Pubs will make things a little bit easier for the Dems than if the Pubs select a more centrist candidate. Trumpiness does not enhance electability.

True, but will the electorate truly care about such things, particularly if they see little or no improvements during this term? I suspect if that happens, and Satan himself/herself rocks up, promising the holy land, we could be in serious trouble! This is far from over!

Peregrinus · 25-02-2021 8:31am

Wanderer78 wrote: »

True, but will the electorate truly care about such things, particularly if they see little or no improvements during this term? I suspect if that happens, and Satan himself/herself rocks up, promising the holy land, we could be in serious trouble! This is far from over!

The Trumpists have just attempted to overthrow the republic by force, and to subvert the results of a democratic election. Nothing comparable has happened in the US since the Civil War. Yes, the electorate will still remember this in 2024. If they did not, the US would be stuffed, regardless of who wins the 2024 election.

Wanderer78 · 25-02-2021 8:36am

Peregrinus wrote:

The Trumpists have just attempted to overthrow the republic by force, and to subvert the results of a democratic election. Nothing comparable has happened in the US since the Civil War. Yes, the electorate will still remember this in 2024. If they did not, the US would be stuffed, regardless of who wins the 2024 election.

So if their political system doesn't react sufficiently to their grievances during this term, it's very likely there will be mayhem in 24, it could potentially make the last term look like a picnic, and I can't see the dems changing much. what needs to be done is monumental, and greatly exceeds the abilities of a single term, and it looks like the modus operandi is, let's change very little, hopefully I'm wrong here, because......

Peregrinus · 25-02-2021 8:43am

Wanderer78 wrote: »

So if their political system doesn't react sufficiently to their grievances during this term . . .

To whose grievances? Trump supporters? There aren't enough of them to win the election.

My point is that, to win, the Pubs have to put up a candiate capable of winning votes from non-Trumpy voters. And Trump is very polarising; a Trumpy candidate won't be able to do that.

What the Pubs need is a definitely non-Trumpy candidate who is capable of getting Trumpy voters out to vote for him, and also capable of attracting support from the centre. That's not impossible, but it's not necessarily what the primary system is designed to produce.

Wanderer78 · 25-02-2021 10:05am

Peregrinus wrote: »

To whose grievances? Trump supporters? There aren't enough of them to win the election.

My point is that, to win, the Pubs have to put up a candiate capable of winning votes from non-Trumpy voters. And Trump is very polarising; a Trumpy candidate won't be able to do that.

What the Pubs need is a definitely non-Trumpy candidate who is capable of getting Trumpy voters out to vote for him, and also capable of attracting support from the centre. That's not impossible, but it's not necessarily what the primary system is designed to produce.

trumps base is only an element of this, theres clearly growing tensions in americas society, this is far deeper than his base, its extremely important to dig deeper into his bases grievances, their needs have never been truly met, by either parties, in fact, theyve been shafted over and over again, by both, this could just be the very beginning of something very serious!

Brian? · 25-02-2021 11:26am

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Don't recognise a few names. Any of the commentariat wouldn't perform well as they'd resemble Trump too much IMO. I'm not familiar with DeSantis so I chose Romney from the list.

Romney smells like a loser after losing to Obama. He hasn’t a hope.

ancapailldorcha · 25-02-2021 11:32am

Brian? wrote: »

Romney smells like a loser after losing to Obama. He hasn’t a hope.

True. I was probably biased by seeking the lesser of several evils.

The GOP Primary 2024

who wins the GOP Primary 57 votes

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