The GOP Primary 2024

Rjd2

Car crash for sure but will be compelling viewing.

So runners and riders

Its pointless not to start with Trump. Early signs are he will run to avenge how the election was "stole" from him . :pac:

I do think if he runs and can somehow dodge all the investigations he will face and no health scares (74 years old and obese) he will be the frontrunner for the nomination.

"Best " of the rest?

Nikki Haley remains solid second favorite with the bookies for the nomination. I'l probably regret this, but everything about her screams Jeb 2016, donor's love her but she has no base in the real world.

She is not clever enough to keep those who loath Trumpism and those who don't on side.

She probably bombs like Jeb and Harris in her respective run.

Pence I can't predict. He ticks a lot of boxes but not sure he has the charisma to win a primary, he will do well however. He is a good debater and has the God Squad in his pocket.


Outside of the big three, its very messy.

Governors its hard to look past De Santis and Noem. De Santis is one of the few unlike Haley who will excite the Trump base but won't have a problem with the so called moderate Republican voters assuming he doesn't get to Trumpy.

Noem will run with an eye on becoming VP rather than actual winning the primary.


Hawley is to wonky and insincere for the Trump base. Nobody likes Ted Cruz and I think Rubio will not be able to shake of the stink of his 2016 run.

We probably will get some who will run on anti Trump vibe such as Sasse, Hogan, but they are wasting their time.

Others like Tim and Ric Scott if they run have even less of a chance.

If looking for total outsiders maybe someone like Dave Portney or God Forbid Candance Owens.

Eric Cartman

De Santis for me.

the trump base is a factor now, one that can't be ignored and the vote could split if they did. the GOP realistically needs to channel as much Reagan energy as they can. De Santis might be the closest on the board to that.

ancapailldorcha

Don't recognise a few names. Any of the commentariat wouldn't perform well as they'd resemble Trump too much IMO. I'm not familiar with DeSantis so I chose Romney from the list.

Kermit.de.frog

SNIP. No insults please.

Romney has shown a lot of common sense and some courage openly criticising Trump in the last few years so if I had to choose I'd say Romney.

Ted Cruz is in the type of trouble that probably rules him out.

Nody

My vote and hope is for Trump snr to run; about the easiest way to ensure Democrats stay in power. As the primary is not about what works in the general election but to win the extremes on the ground Trump has a big shoe in for that reason with fanatical supporters which is required for the primary (but lose the middle which is required for the election). Yes; I know people will say "but look at the numbers he brought out in the 2020 election" but forget that the Democrats brought out even bigger numbers due to Trump being on the R ticket. Add in the fact Trump has cost many senate seats etc. and Trump is a pretty much a sure loser to run for election (I doubt the next four years will bring up positive news about him and his time in power) but the most likely candidate because his ego can't have it any other way. If that happens I expect that many republican donors will quietly reduce or stop their donations as well as it's seen as throwing away money to support him (but will given token amounts of course).

Eric Cartman

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

SNIP. No insults please.

Romney has shown a lot of common sense and some courage openly criticising Trump in the last few years so if I had to choose I'd say Romney.

Ted Cruz is in the type of trouble that probably rules him out.

I think thats why Romney won't get it. Its not about who people want to run, its about the most sensible choice for the GOP and somebody trump voter friendly who isn't trump is their absolute best bet.

Rjd2

Nody makes a fine point regarding Trump , he makes everything about him.

The Georgia run offs were a good example, he tied himself to Loeffer and Perdue thus the anti Trump voters came out in droves but because he was not actually on the ballot and moaned like his associates that "elections were corrupt" his core supporters stayed away. The worst of both worlds.

Mitt Romney is interesting atm, words I never thought I would type.

Even if you ignore his opposition to Trump, he is actually one of the least Orthodox GOP big hitters atm. While many cling to Zombie Reganism " MUH SOCIALISM" ,,he is trotting out some interesting financial ideas while so many others focus exclusively on tedious culture war issues.

Nikki Haley for example is stuck in the 80's, absolute stereotype of a candidate.

Brussels Sprout

If Trump stays out of legal trouble and doesn't deteriorate too rapidly health-wise he'll walk it.

Mitt Romney hasn't a prayer. Perhaps in a world where the Republican party hasn't collectively lost its mind; where 70% of Republicans don't believe that the election was stolen he might have a chance. That ship has sailed. Nowadays you either need be a true believer in Trumpism or at least cynically go along with it to be able to compete. Romney doesn't fit into either category and his vote to convict Trump is an immediate disqualifier anyway.

Pompeo is a 1-dimensional copy of some parts of Trump but missing the rest of the ingredients that made Trump successful with the base.

As I write this Dan Crenshaw is third in the poll. I'm willing to be corrected on this but I don't believe a member of the House has won a nomination since James Garfield in 1880. Another problem with Crenshaw is that he's quite short. That shouldn't matter, but it appears to. Male presidential nominees tend to be taller than average rather then smaller than average.

Rjd2

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

If Trump stays out of legal trouble and doesn't deteriorate too rapidly health-wise he'll walk it.

Mitt Romney hasn't a prayer. Perhaps in a world where the Republican party hasn't collectively lost its mind; where 70% of Republicans don't believe that the election was stolen he might have a chance. That ship has sailed. Nowadays you either need be a true believer in Trumpism or at least cynically go along with it to be able to compete. Romney doesn't fit into either category and his vote to convict Trump is an immediate disqualifier anyway.

Pompeo is a 1-dimensional copy of some parts of Trump but missing the rest of the ingredients that made Trump successful with the base.

As I write this Dan Crenshaw is third in the poll. I'm willing to be corrected on this but I don't believe a member of the House has won a nomination since James Garfield in 1880. Another problem with Crenshaw is that he's quite short. That shouldn't matter, but it appears to. Male presidential nominees tend to be taller than average rather then smaller than average.

Crenshaw is very dangerous.

A lot of those candidates thankfully have no chance of winning, but this guy is excellent at culture wars , has a interesting backstory , is presentable and quite charismatic.


You like Neoconservatism?

Well you're going to absolutely love Dan.

I'm much more worried about him than Cotton who thankfully has zero charisma.

Crenshaw was born in Scotland.

mcmoustache

Assuming for a moment that Trump is still walking around free and in livable health, it can only be him. The republican party is mostly the Trump party at this point. There are a lot of candidates there who love Trump and claim to be just like him but at the end of the day, nothing really sets them apart from each other. They're just a bunch of pretenders while Trump is the only Trump. Those candidates who try to straddle both sides of the GOP aren't getting anywhere and the likes of Romney have no chance while Trump is still around.

That's the thing with a cult of personality. You get the personality and you get the sycophants trying to ride the coat tails. The mob wants the personality. They don't want the the guys with brown on their nose or white one their chin. They want Trump.

Primary voters might settle for another Trump but Trump's kids are, to put it mildly, devoid of any kind of acumen.

This may be wishful thinking on my part but I don't see a middle ground between Reagani/Bush types and the Trump/Q types and the Trump/Q types are very much on the ascendancy if not already running the show.

Fr Tod Umptious

Deleted User wrote: »

Crenshaw was born in Scotland.

If you are saying that as a suggestion that he is not eligible to become president, he actually is.

His parents were American so he therefore is a naturally born American which makes him eligible.

Nikki Haley.

Brussels Sprout

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

If you are saying that as a suggestion that he is not eligible to become president, he actually is.

His parents were American so he therefore is a naturally born American which makes him eligible.

Yes. John McCain was born in Panama but was a naturalised citizen through his American parents and successfully won the nomination. Ironically enough it was his opponent in the general election, who was actually born in the USA, who faced questions about his eligibility - funny that!

Ted Cruz was also born abroad (Canada). His own father was also born abroad (Cuba) and only became a US citizen in 2005. He had an American mother though and he also was able to run for President without it being raised as an issue.

It's only people like Arnold Schwarzenegger, born abroad to non US citizen parents, who fall foul of that rule.

StringerBell

Rafael Cruz will never win the nomination, Christ what an odious individual!

PalLimerick

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Don't recognise a few names. Any of the commentariat wouldn't perform well as they'd resemble Trump too much IMO. I'm not familiar with DeSantis so I chose Romney from the list.

Romney, has two chances, little and none.

breatheme

Deleted User wrote: »

Crenshaw was born in Scotland.

To American parents though, and he never held British citizenship. He's a natural born citizen, like McCain and Ted Cruz, thus eligible to run according to the Constitution.

ETA: Whoops, was beaten to it. Should've refreshed before hitting reply.

Fr Tod Umptious

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Yes. John McCain was born in Panama but was a naturalised citizen through his American parents and successfully won the nomination. Ironically enough it was his opponent in the general election, who was actually born in the USA, who faced questions about his eligibility - funny that!

Ted Cruz was also born abroad (Canada). His own father was also born abroad (Cuba) and only became a US citizen in 2005. He had an American mother though and he also was able to run for President without it being raised as an issue.

It's only people like Arnold Schwarzenegger, born abroad to non US citizen parents, who fall foul of that rule.

Going off topic here, but sure it's 3 years away so plenty of time to get back on topic.

Anyway - in Clinton's second term Secretary of State Madeleine Albright would have been past over in the line of succession as she was born in the then Czechoslovakia and only became a naturalized American later.

Same would go for Henry Kissinger

Rjd2

PalLimerick wrote: »

Romney, has two chances, little and none.

Amusingly Romney of 2021 could have won 2012.

I'm not even discussing the Trump fisticuffs , but its interesting to see Romney slowly beginning to recognise that Zombie Reganism is not the way to win elections nor what the base want.

He was a cliche in 2012 to say the least.

Wanderer78

Very likely 24 will indeed be a car crash, and a very scary one at that, I truly can't see the dems achieving much during this term

Peregrinus

Eric Cartman wrote: »

I think thats why Romney won't get it. Its not about who people want to run, its about the most sensible choice for the GOP and somebody trump voter friendly who isn't trump is their absolute best bet.

It's not about the most sensible choice for the GOP. The most sensible choice for the GOP is the Republican most likely to win the general election. But the person most likely to win the primary is the person with the greatest appeal to the Republican base.

There's some overlap here, since the person who appeals to the base is likely to be good at getting the base to turn out in the general election.

But that's not enough, since it's hard for the Republicans to win the general election with their base alone - they have the smaller base and, for demographic reasons, this problem is getting worse and worse for them over time.

Recall that in both the general elections that Trump contested, he lost the popular vote. It's possible to win the general election while losing the popular vote, but it requires nifty footwork and a degree of good luck. And the problem with Trump as a candidate is that, while he's good at turning out the base, he's even better at turning out the voters who loathe him. Both of the elections that Trump contested were characterised by unusually high turnouts, and in both he lost the popular vote. The conventional wisdom is that higher turnout tends to favour the Democrats and, while this may be less true than it used to be, the 2020 election certainly conforms to that pattern. This view is certainly the reason why Republican tactics for improving their electoral chances so largely feature vote suppression measures.

Because the Republican base is the smaller base, the optimal candidate for the
Republicans is one who can attract votes from the uncommitted centre. That's not Trump, or any little Trumplet who will pander to Trump. So that is definitely not who the party would like to see win the primary.

But that may not matter, since the party doesn't get to determine who wins the primary; the base does. The GOP's nightmare is that the base will chose a Trumpy candidate who will turn out the base but appal and revolt the middle ground, and motivate them to support the Democratic candidate rather than stay at home.

Peregrinus

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Very likely 24 will indeed be a car crash, and a very scary one at that, I truly can't see the dems achieving much during this term

Since the Civil War, seven US Presidents have sought re-election but failed to get it. Six of the seven have been Republicans (Carter is the sole Democrat).

I think Americans have been profoundly shocked by the manifestations of Trumpism they've seen in the past four or five months. However rough a ride Biden may have over the next four years, I don't think Trumpism will be sufficiently rehabilitated to be a benefit the Republican ticket by 2024.

Wanderer78

Peregrinus wrote:

I think Americans have been profoundly shocked by the manifestations of Trumpism they've seen in the past four or five months. However rough a ride Biden may have over the next four years, I don't think Trumpism will be sufficiently rehabilitated to be a benefit the Republican ticket by 2024.

I'm not so sure about that, people have had enough, it's gonna take a lot more than this term to resolve many of issues, and it's looking very likely this admin is just defaulting to the norm, that won't wash with the electorate, I'm expecting mayhem in 24, but I hope you're right, because........

Peregrinus

Wanderer78 wrote: »

I'm not so sure about that, people have had enough, it's gonna take a lot more than this term to resolve many of issues, and it's looking very likely this admin is just defaulting to the norm, that won't wash with the electorate, I'm expecting mayhem in 24, but I hope you're right, because........

Oh, it may well be difficult for the Dems in '24. My point is just that the selection of a Trumpy candidate for the Pubs will make things a little bit easier for the Dems than if the Pubs select a more centrist candidate. Trumpiness does not enhance electability.

Wanderer78

Peregrinus wrote:

Oh, it may well be difficult for the Dems in '24. My point is just that the selection of a Trumpy candidate for the Pubs will make things a little bit easier for the Dems than if the Pubs select a more centrist candidate. Trumpiness does not enhance electability.

True, but will the electorate truly care about such things, particularly if they see little or no improvements during this term? I suspect if that happens, and Satan himself/herself rocks up, promising the holy land, we could be in serious trouble! This is far from over!

Peregrinus

Wanderer78 wrote: »

True, but will the electorate truly care about such things, particularly if they see little or no improvements during this term? I suspect if that happens, and Satan himself/herself rocks up, promising the holy land, we could be in serious trouble! This is far from over!

The Trumpists have just attempted to overthrow the republic by force, and to subvert the results of a democratic election. Nothing comparable has happened in the US since the Civil War. Yes, the electorate will still remember this in 2024. If they did not, the US would be stuffed, regardless of who wins the 2024 election.

Wanderer78

Peregrinus wrote:

The Trumpists have just attempted to overthrow the republic by force, and to subvert the results of a democratic election. Nothing comparable has happened in the US since the Civil War. Yes, the electorate will still remember this in 2024. If they did not, the US would be stuffed, regardless of who wins the 2024 election.

So if their political system doesn't react sufficiently to their grievances during this term, it's very likely there will be mayhem in 24, it could potentially make the last term look like a picnic, and I can't see the dems changing much. what needs to be done is monumental, and greatly exceeds the abilities of a single term, and it looks like the modus operandi is, let's change very little, hopefully I'm wrong here, because......

Peregrinus

Wanderer78 wrote: »

So if their political system doesn't react sufficiently to their grievances during this term . . .

To whose grievances? Trump supporters? There aren't enough of them to win the election.

My point is that, to win, the Pubs have to put up a candiate capable of winning votes from non-Trumpy voters. And Trump is very polarising; a Trumpy candidate won't be able to do that.

What the Pubs need is a definitely non-Trumpy candidate who is capable of getting Trumpy voters out to vote for him, and also capable of attracting support from the centre. That's not impossible, but it's not necessarily what the primary system is designed to produce.

Wanderer78

Peregrinus wrote: »

To whose grievances? Trump supporters? There aren't enough of them to win the election.

My point is that, to win, the Pubs have to put up a candiate capable of winning votes from non-Trumpy voters. And Trump is very polarising; a Trumpy candidate won't be able to do that.

What the Pubs need is a definitely non-Trumpy candidate who is capable of getting Trumpy voters out to vote for him, and also capable of attracting support from the centre. That's not impossible, but it's not necessarily what the primary system is designed to produce.

trumps base is only an element of this, theres clearly growing tensions in americas society, this is far deeper than his base, its extremely important to dig deeper into his bases grievances, their needs have never been truly met, by either parties, in fact, theyve been shafted over and over again, by both, this could just be the very beginning of something very serious!

Brian?

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Don't recognise a few names. Any of the commentariat wouldn't perform well as they'd resemble Trump too much IMO. I'm not familiar with DeSantis so I chose Romney from the list.

Romney smells like a loser after losing to Obama. He hasn’t a hope.

ancapailldorcha

Brian? wrote: »

Romney smells like a loser after losing to Obama. He hasn’t a hope.

True. I was probably biased by seeking the lesser of several evils.

astrofool

Brian? wrote: »

Romney smells like a loser after losing to Obama. He hasn’t a hope.

You'd wonder if the loser stench is something that will effect trump (which is also a big reason he keeps denying the loss).

StringerBell

No insults please.

Brussels Sprout

CPAC is on this weekend and has already begun.


https://twitter.com/RightWingWatch/status/1365305729637371904


Ron DeSantis and Ted Cruz have already given speeches.


https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1365345637731033088

pgmcpq

The primary and the general election are very different. The the Republican primary in particular takes place in a bubble which has little relationship with reality. The activist base in the Republican party is largely Trump. It's the reason why so few Republican in congress are willing to break ranks. The non-Trump supporting "traditional" conservatives have largely been sidelined or stepped away. So

1. the events of January are unlikely to have much impact on the primary.
2. McConnell wants rid of Trump, but ultimately will go with the flow.

The big factor than enabled Trump to win the primary in 2016 was the crowded field. The debates where chaotic meaning that Trump was able to "win" by being the loudest and most outrageous. Once he had survived the debates he had the momentum of novice and newly energized (enraged?) supporters. New primary rules, designed to produce a quick result, also threw support behind the leader post the debates.

So 2024:

There will be a Trump in the field, and they are a serious candidate. If Don Snr is not in legal trouble by then he will stand, if not I think it will be Don Jnr (who certainly looks like he's warming up to campaign). I suspect the Republican establishment will bend over to prevent this happening ... but funnily enough their own rules may tie their hands.

Pence is the next most likely. He's broken with Trump but will carry the evangelical vote. He's very ambitious and smarter than it would seem. He'll position himself as Trump without the baggage but whether he has the "big" personality is questionable.

Di Santis is also a strong option. He's close enough to Trump and has the bombast to appeal.

Cruz may not recover from the trip to Mexico, but memories are short and local so it might not hurt him so much nationally.

Don't forget about Rand Paul and Greg Abbot, either of whom might fancy a crack.


It's way to soon, but I'll say either a Trump or Pence.

Either are a terrifying and dangerous prospect.

Infini

The laughable thing though is if Trump somehow get's the nomination again it would be comedy gold for the Democrats. They could easily destroy his campaign with a literal "This is the crap we were left cleaning up after this guy" campaign not to mention "Incited Sedition and only got off because of the Republican Party valuing loyalty over the Nation".

Trump got lucky in 2016 because people weren't motivated to vote. He never won the popular vote and any time since 2016 if he campaign's he might get the Trumpy voters out BUT he also has the effect of motivating Democratic Voters out in BIGGER numbers to block him.

If he get's the nomination Republicans will lose as all the Dem's have to do is hit him with his record of failures and screwups and of course the endless "Insurrection" hammer. He's damaged goods and he could possibly be up against an Incumbent if Joe decides to stay in the job in 2024 (In theory he could still go for the presidency and if health issues catch up to him in a year or 2, step down in favour of Kamala)

Manic Moran

Peregrinus wrote: »

It's not about the most sensible choice for the GOP. The most sensible choice for the GOP is the Republican most likely to win the general election. But the person most likely to win the primary is the person with the greatest appeal to the Republican base

This isn’t a new argument, we saw it on the D side last year, and we saw the Rs doing it in 2012. There was quite a split between those who though that McCain would have a good chance of beating Obama, and those who said that he wasn’t Republican enough, needed to excite the base. Unfortunately, the former were proven wrong in 2012, and the latter, at first blush (yes, I know it depends on how you define “republican”,) were proven right in 2016. But then lost again in 2020 when facing someone who wasn’t one of the most unpopular candidates in history.

I have not voted yet. The Republican Party have not yet had time to come to terms with their internal divisions and do any soul searching, and I think trying to anticipate what will happen three years from now is something of an exercise in optimism.

StringerBell

I don't know if you could compare the 2012 election to the 2016. Both parties ran very different candidates to what they had previously for example and each election is its own beast anyway making comparisons very tough in terms of how one would play out if you'd swapped candidate types if that makes sense.

I think what you saw in 2012 in the GOP was the slide, which has continued even further to the right. McCain was not right wing enough for the base so his running mate was parachuted in as one of their own. It's very rare that presidents don't get two terms so they also had to contend with that.

We did see them make the gains in the house and senate so continued to build from where they had been in 06. We saw more of the extreme elements of the party find a home and the continuing growing influence of social media and disinformation which reached a crescendo of sorts in 2016. Coupled with the perfect storm of the other side having held the wh for 8 years (so normally there is a switch to the other party) and them running a candidate who was so u popular it must have even been a shock to them in the end.

What you see in the GOP is the continuing of the trend, they will continue to run further to the right and play more to the fringe elements as they are the loudest voices as long as they see that working for them. Cruz doing his best trump impression at cpac was no coincidence, but trump he is not. He has no chance of being elected president and he isn't too stupid to realise that but he is too arrogant I believe. He has achieved great success all of his privileged life. Debate champion, Princeton graduate, clerked for supreme court justice. It's not that he doesn't understand how international treaties work for example, but he believes those who support him don't so he plays to that.

While attacking other GOP members they also spoke about how the civil war in the party is a media made up story - Orwell didn't even hit the mark on the double speak enough in retrospect.

I said it a little while ago, it's time to accept that the GOP is what it is, it is exactly where it wants to be on issues. There isn't going to be some road to Damascus moment where someone comes along and saves the soul of the party. That party is gone now, evolved or devolved depending on your point of view.

letowski

I see DeSantis emerging as a front runner if Trump decides not to run. He can combine the Trump base with small government conservatives. He also has some history like Trump for being soft on social security and benefits. Basically a watered down version of Trump as to entice the center-right.

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1366126005925138437

Rjd2

Rand Paul won that in 2012 and Ted Cruz won in 2016 as Trump didn't actually show up so its doesn't mean that much.

Its cool for DeSantis, but those results are to be expected in his home state with Florida GOP voters.

Its very early days, but some of those numbers are concerning for those running.

Hawley made a tool of himself by playing 3d chess (i'm just asking questions) and he seems to have got no benefit from it. The country club Republicans who bank rolled him are angry and the true believers when it comes to the election been "stolen" can smell his insincerity. They know he doesn't believe their was anything improper in November.

Haley is going to be the Jeb of this campaign.

Noem could be the Mayor Pete of the campaign, won't win, but will increase her profile hugely and no matter what the result is in 2024.

jem

Thing is the more "normal" GOp members that leave the greater the chance of Trump or trump v2 will win the nomination.
The middle of the road GOP suporters should not be changing to register as independant as it is just leaving the hard core trumpers to vote in the primary.

I would fear for the USA and by extension the rest of the world in that the version 2 trumper will very usa first and feck the rest of the world, very very right wing but not say out lowd as many mental things as trump did. Get elected and completly change the fabric of America for the worse, At the same time holding both houses and making it impossible for the Dems to win again ever with laws on voter redg that make it impossible for the black voter and the Democrate voter to actually vote.
I do fear that people may look back on the pre 2024 as the golden age of USA Democracy.

Carfacemandog

Those thinking that Trump would lose in a landslide in 2024 vastly, vastly overestimate the intelligence and educational levels of the American voting public.

Not to say he would clearly win, but they (in combination with the EC system) have proven themselves the very definition of the negative side of the saying "a democracy deserves the governance it gets" time, and time, and time again, and will likely vote for what is the shiniest object in the room at any given moment.

StringerBell

I don't think he'd lose in a landslide, although given the defeat he suffered is considered a landslide by his own definition it would be no better next time imo. I certainly think he would lose, and likely bring down GOP vote in Congress next time around also whereas I think they got a strong turnout this time due to wanting to put shackles on Biden while also ridding themselves of trump. Watching their party prostrate themselves to such a loser for the next 4 years while also wading through whatever revelations come out in court will be too much I'd wager.

He won't run though, I will stand by that.

Rjd2

He's getting on also and not in the best shape.

He doesn't have the presence he had in 2016 where he was murdering GOP rivals on stage.

I dunno if he runs or not, right now he is living his best life.

Anyone who wants to do anything has to travel to his house and tell him how great he is while he plots how to bury his enemys.

He gets to be king maker which he must love.

I don't think he would lose in a landslide as with politics so tribal , a high percentage of both parties would vote for a lamp-post if it had D or R beside it, but nonetheless he would likely lose to Harris in 2024 and would be a drag on the ballot for the GOP.

Rjd2

The other problem for the GOP , Trump absolutely loves this " will he or won't he run narrative" and of course the media loves to speculate as Trump= ratings.

It means though the GOP field is paralysed because they know he could get the hump with any of them for inane reasons and bury them, so you got to keep Trump on side, try and make it not so obvious that you are running while doing your day job.

Not impossible the likes of Hawley, De Santis, Noem and the other Trumpy candidates who are young may think "**** it not worth the hassle" and focus on a 2028 run.

Brussels Sprout

If he's mentally & physically fit and not in legal jeopardy there's no way that he won't run, as far as I can see. He absolutely hated the day to day tasks of being President (so much so that he pretty much stopped doing them). However, he absolutely loved the pomp & grandeur of the role and, more than anything, he craves the validation of an election win.

If there's one thing we know about Trump he loves the limelight and can't stand to see anyone else get too much shine. This is a man who has to have the largest portion of food when he dines with other people. A man who can't stand for a conversation not to be about himself. There's no way that he will stand aside and let someone else get all of that attention, even if they are completely subservient to him. That's only going to happen as a last resort - if he himself is blocked from running for either health or legal reasons.

Bobtheman

I think Mike Pence will easily get the nomination for three main reasons

He has a good base in the Republican Party (Evangelicals)
He can position himself as Pro and Anti Trump. Trump only turned on Pence when he didn't do something that was constitutional--stop results being certified.
Obviously, a lot of this will depend on Trump's influence. I see it declining.
While I think Trump will run-he won't get the nomination. More **** on him will come out about him the next few years. He will be damaged goods by 2024.

Brussels Sprout

Bobtheman wrote: »

More **** on him will come out about him the next few years. He will be damaged goods by 2024.

What exactly do you think could possibly come out about Trump that could hurt him with the Republican base when he has already:

• Mocked a disabled person
• Mocked war veterans
• Been accused of sexual assault by more than 15 women
• been caught on a microphone bragging about sexual assaults
• bribed a porn star to keep an affair secret prior to the election
• surrounded himself with people who ultimately were convicted of serious crimes
• been accused of having paid practically no tax in years where he was President
• personally asked a foreign leader for damaging information on a political opponent
• presided over a disastrous Covid-19 response with 400k dying under his leadership
• hosted a super spreader event at the white House itself
• fomented an insurrection

and none of those made a dent in his popularity. Some of those he was able to brush off as "fake news" but others were impossible to dispute. His base didn't care either way.

The truth is that there is no act that his base will not ignore so long as he continues to attack the same people and things that they themselves despise. The only thing that could possibly hurt him in their eyes would be an act of contrition, which will never happen, since he is absolutely incapable of apologising for anything.

Peregrinus

Bobtheman wrote: »

I think Mike Pence will easily get the nomination for three main reasons

He has a good base in the Republican Party (Evangelicals)
He can position himself as Pro and Anti Trump. Trump only turned on Pence when he didn't do something that was constitutional--stop results being certified.
Obviously, a lot of this will depend on Trump's influence. I see it declining.
While I think Trump will run-he won't get the nomination. More **** on him will come out about him the next few years. He will be damaged goods by 2024.

Trump sent a lynch-mob to kill Mike Pence. If you're a true-blue Trump supporter, you must now hate Mike Pence, for how else are you to defend what Trump did? But if you think Pence is half-way decent, then you must despise Trump. There is no way Pence can appeal both to Trumpists and to anti-Trumpists.

blanch152

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

What exactly do you think could possibly come out about Trump that could hurt him with the Republican base when he has already:

• Mocked a disabled person
• Mocked war veterans
• Been accused of sexual assault by more than 15 women
• been caught on a microphone bragging about sexual assaults
• bribed a porn star to keep an affair secret prior to the election
• surrounded himself with people who ultimately were convicted of serious crimes
• been accused of having paid practically no tax in years where he was President
• personally asked a foreign leader for damaging information on a political opponent
• presided over a disastrous Covid-19 response with 400k dying under his leadership
• hosted a super spreader event at the white House itself
• fomented an insurrection

and none of those made a dent in his popularity. Some of those he was able to brush off as "fake news" but others were impossible to dispute. His base didn't care either way.

The truth is that there is no act that his base will not ignore so long as he continues to attack the same people and things that they themselves despise. The only thing that could possibly hurt him in their eyes would be an act of contrition, which will never happen, since he is absolutely incapable of apologising for anything.

This is the key issue, none of that dents his solid supporters.

Quin_Dub

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

What exactly do you think could possibly come out about Trump that could hurt him with the Republican base when he has already:

• Mocked a disabled person
• Mocked war veterans
• Been accused of sexual assault by more than 15 women
• been caught on a microphone bragging about sexual assaults
• bribed a porn star to keep an affair secret prior to the election
• surrounded himself with people who ultimately were convicted of serious crimes
• been accused of having paid practically no tax in years where he was President
• personally asked a foreign leader for damaging information on a political opponent
• presided over a disastrous Covid-19 response with 400k dying under his leadership
• hosted a super spreader event at the white House itself
• fomented an insurrection

and none of those made a dent in his popularity. Some of those he was able to brush off as "fake news" but others were impossible to dispute. His base didn't care either way.

The truth is that there is no act that his base will not ignore so long as he continues to attack the same people and things that they themselves despise. The only thing that could possibly hurt him in their eyes would be an act of contrition, which will never happen, since he is absolutely incapable of apologising for anything.

Trumps problem is not GOP voters - It's everybody else.

Virtually no-one that voted for Biden last November is going to vote for Trump in 2024 . Trump will do absolutely nothing to try and win over new voters or to "expand his base" he will simply continue to pander to his existing voter base and bather in their reflected adulation.

Someone like De Santis would be a far better option for the GOP - He'd keep almost all the hardcore Trump supporters and he'd be capable of leaning into the centre ground where Trump is toxic.

Having said that , there are noises coming out of Florida around his handling of Covid and of data manipulation/hiding which might steal that middle ground option away from him.

Trumps only hope of winning would be via massive voter suppression - Hence the 250+ pieces of legislation being pushed by the GOP looking restrict access to voting.

The GOP don't want to win over the 7m+ voters that were the difference between the two candidates - They just want to stop them voting so the 75M is enough to win.

Actually - It's just the 100k or so in those swings States they want to block...It's all they need.