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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part IX *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

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Comments

  • #1712
    Windmill100000
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 585 ✭✭✭Windmill100000


    Is there a caveat with the UK plan that if cases begin to rise they will be in lockdown again? They were in and out of tiers towards the end of last year.


  • #1713
    PTH2009
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,543 ✭✭✭✭PTH2009


    Numbers can be interrupted/fiddled esp with them now the judge of progression


  • #1714
    gozunda
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,996 ✭✭✭✭gozunda


    Windmill100000 wrote: »
    Is there a caveat with the UK plan that if cases begin to rise they will be in lockdown again? They were in and out of tiers towards the end of last year.

    More a caveat that there will be no changes unless specific criteria are met. Funnily enough they've been clever enough not to highlight these in their press releases..
    First, that the vaccine deployment programme continues successfully;

    second, that evidence shows vaccines are sufficiently effective in reducing hospitalisations and deaths;

    third, that infection rates do not risk a surge in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS;

    and fourth, that our assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new variants of Covid that cause concern.

    Before taking each step we will review the data against these tests and because it takes at least four weeks for the data to reflect the impact of relaxations in restrictions

    and we want to give the country a week’s notice before each change -

    there will be at least five weeks between each step.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-statement-to-the-house-of-commons-on-roadmap-for-easing-lockdown-restrictions-in-england-22-february-2021


  • #1715
    FintanMcluskey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,656 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    ArthurDayne wrote: »
    Even if the figures referred to a do-nothing approach, it is now clear (if it ever wasn’t) that a figure of 80,000-120,000 was massively overcooked — and if one was to perhaps go a step further — perhaps simply designed to shock. But McConkey’s figures as an expert a year ago seemed to overlook the fact that a “do nothing” approach does not invariably mean that people themselves do nothing. If people know there is a virus out there that can kill them — and of course if Covid was going to be killing at the scale predicted then people would have to have taken it seriously — they will act in a way that lowers their risk of getting it. They will also act in a way that lowers the risk of loved ones getting it, because ultimately there aren’t too many out there who want to be responsible for killing a loved one.

    Uppsala University in Sweden made a similar miscalculation when they predicted 100,000 dead in that country by July 2020. Link here. In the end, Sweden didn’t even have 100,000 people dead by the end of the year from all causes of death. So again, the obvious extrapolation there is that if Sweden, with twice our population and without going into lockdown for the most part, had 96,000 deaths from all causes in 2020 — it’s fairly clear that a figure of 80-120,000 dead in Ireland from the Covid pandemic alone was wildly overzealous and (depending on the methodology) potentially a bit irresponsible.

    People who questioned these numbers got beaten down by the usual “You aren’t a doctor / expert and they are” responses. But whether the people questioning the numbers were experts or not, and whether they based their argument on sound reasoning or completely plucked from their arse, were they right nor wrong to say the figures were a wild overestimation?

    Something similar happened in 2001 in the UK that resulted in the cull of millions of animals in the Uk using wildly inaccurate modelling.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/news/foot-and-mouth-cull-may-have-been-needless-1.564824%3fmode=amp

    https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-13299666
    Professor Neil Ferguson, of Imperial College London, was among those advising government on how to control the epidemic a decade ago.

    I wonder what up to date models will show using Swedish data as a template?


  • #1716
    hynesie08
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,320 ✭✭✭✭hynesie08


    PTH2009 wrote: »
    Numbers can be interrupted/fiddled esp with them now the judge of progression

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/forumdisplay.php?f=576


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  • #1717
    FintanMcluskey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,656 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    Windmill100000 wrote: »
    Is there a caveat with the UK plan that if cases begin to rise they will be in lockdown again? They were in and out of tiers towards the end of last year.

    I’m sorry to say but it’s unlikely


  • #1718
    Silentcorner
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,536 ✭✭✭Silentcorner


    Leftwaffe wrote: »
    Fergal Bowers just now on RTE talking about next Autumn and Winter and potential measures being taken with double pressure on the health system. Honestly we are doomed

    No mention of preparing our health system for the expected surge next winter I'm sure...so we won't have to wreck our already battered economy!


  • #1719
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 6,775 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Silentcorner wrote: »
    No mention of preparing our health system for the expected surge next winter I'm sure...so we won't have to wreck our already battered economy!

    And Government is doing precisely nothing to improve the health system in the worst-case scenario.

    That's the frustrating part.


  • #1720
    FintanMcluskey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,656 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    Boggles wrote: »
    You have actively promoted an anti-vax rally half a dozen times on here Norman.

    No one is buying they are just a fun bunch of hippies nonsense.

    Ah there a few lefties/liberals who just want life back.

    Prof Staines and Sam McConkey are perhaps the most influential anti-vaxers I’ve heard recently, both of them talking bolix about the vaccines not working


  • #1721
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 6,775 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    FintanMcluskey wrote: »
    Ah there a few lefties/liberals who just want life back.

    Prof Staines and Sam McConkey are perhaps the most influential anti-vaxers I’ve heard recently, both of them talking bolix about the vaccines not working

    Anyone who talks down the vaccines is a very dangerous person.

    We need maximum uptake, not conspiracy and anti-scientific nonsense.


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  • #1722
    landofthetree
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,464 ✭✭✭landofthetree


    Leftwaffe wrote: »
    Fergal Bowers just now on RTE talking about next Autumn and Winter and potential measures being taken with double pressure on the health system. Honestly we are doomed


    Hopefully nobody will fund us for that sort of madness.

    If other EU countries can cope we won't be getting any cheap EU funds.

    https://twitter.com/ciaraphelan_/status/1364321912382509058


  • #1723
    Windmill100000
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 585 ✭✭✭Windmill100000


    FintanMcluskey wrote: »
    I’m sorry to say but it’s unlikely
    Really? I find that unusual given how they have dealt with covid to date. If they do lockdown again then we will probably be delayed opening even further so will be watching with interest


  • #1724
    Silentcorner
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,536 ✭✭✭Silentcorner


    gozunda wrote: »
    Except the jury on the seasonality of the covid virus is still out.

    https://www.thejournal.ie/is-coronavirus-partially-seasonal-leo-varadkar-5338003-Jan2021/

    Our previous known peak of Covid infection occurred in April 2020. The second was in October. April is not a 'dark' month by any reckoning

    In Ireland
    Average sunshine in December: 1.7h.
    Average daylight in December: 7.6h.

    Average sunshine in April: 5.3h
    Average daylight in April: 14h

    Look we get it. You reckon that restrictions don't work to reduce infection rates. The data currently shows otherwise.

    Come back next year with that theory and we can see if your ideas hold up to scrutiny.

    I don't need to come back in a year, we are already a year into this...the data is telling us exactly what this is and who are most vulnerable to it...we seem to be ignoring that data for a reason I can't fathom!

    We also know that our immune system is at it's weakest at certain times of the year, this is established....it's why we get Winter surges that jam up our hospitals every year....we all know this.

    Look, I get it, to accept all the above you'd have to admit you have bought into the alarmism and hysteria in media...


  • #1725
    SilentGreenx32
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33 ✭SilentGreenx32


    landofthetree wrote: »
    Hopefully nobody will fund us for that sort of madness.

    If other EU countries can cope we won't be getting any cheap EU funds.

    https://twitter.com/ciaraphelan_/status/1364321912382509058

    I honestly cant handle anymore of this fcuking nonsense. Its one bad piece of news after another and all we are told to do is be patient and wait and we cant even get our fcuking hair cut. Making predictions for one winter when we aren't even out of this one yet. Yeah good luck


  • #1726
    FintanMcluskey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,656 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    Windmill100000 wrote: »
    Really? I find that unusual given how they have dealt with covid to date. If they do lockdown again then we will probably be delayed opening even further so will be watching with interest

    18 million citizens have received the 1st vaccine dose

    Even dose 1 provides some protection

    The UK lockdown is finished


  • #1727
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 6,775 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    FintanMcluskey wrote: »
    18 million citizens have received the 1st vaccine dose

    Even dose 1 provides some protection

    The UK lockdown is finished

    The Pfizer vaccine has shown > 90% efficacy after 1-dose after 1-2 weeks has elapsed; the second dose needed at 3-months.

    These results should be taken on board to spread out vaccines over the next couple of months.


  • #1728
    JRant
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,236 ✭✭✭✭JRant


    Leftwaffe wrote: »
    Fergal Bowers just now on RTE talking about next Autumn and Winter and potential measures being taken with double pressure on the health system. Honestly we are doomed

    Fergal isn't one for hyperbole so this is obviously coming from a senior figure.

    "Well, yeah, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man"



  • #1729
    Windmill100000
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 585 ✭✭✭Windmill100000


    FintanMcluskey wrote: »
    18 million citizens have received the 1st vaccine dose

    Even dose 1 provides some protection

    The UK lockdown is finished

    Just reading it depends on the R number staying low. Hopefully it does bevause if it doesn't there is a possibility we will be kept in level 5 even longer.


  • #1730
    FintanMcluskey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,656 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    Windmill100000 wrote: »
    Just reading it depends on the R number staying low. Hopefully it does bevause if it doesn't there is a possibility we will be kept in level 5 even longer.

    Ireland is in level 5 until mid Summer regardless of the R number or vaccination progress here.


  • #1731
    Windmill100000
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 585 ✭✭✭Windmill100000


    FintanMcluskey wrote: »
    Ireland is in level 5 until mid Summer regardless of the R number or vaccination progress here.

    Im aware of tbe situation here to date, but if the UK R number goes up and they are locked down again it is likely to delay everything even further for us.


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  • #1732
    daydorunrun
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 784 ✭✭✭daydorunrun


    MEGA BRO WOLF 5000 wrote: »
    It's something like 800000 on waiting lists.

    I mean... Wow.

    Keep locking us down and watch them lists grow. And somehow it'll be the publics fault.

    The 800,000 figure is frightening alright but a lot of those may die so that should improve waiting lists- as long as they don't die of covid I guess that's ok!

    “You tried your best and you failed miserably. The lesson is, never try.” Homer.



  • #1733
    SnuggyBear
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 965 ✭✭✭SnuggyBear


    JRant wrote: »
    Fergal isn't one for hyperbole so this is obviously coming from a senior figure.

    This is the future now. Lockdowns at the drop of a hat.


  • #1734
    Whatsisname
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,832 ✭✭✭Whatsisname


    gozunda wrote: »
    More a caveat that there will be no changes unless specific criteria are met. Funnily enough they've been clever enough not to highlight these in their press releases..



    https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-statement-to-the-house-of-commons-on-roadmap-for-easing-lockdown-restrictions-in-england-22-february-2021

    The first 3 are already happening. Their scientists have repeatedly said variants are not a massive worry right now and even thrown shade at the media for how they report it and there’s already an adapted vaccine being put into production for the South African one I believe.

    It’s very strange to me how many people are desperately trying to find an angle to downplay the UKs road map and vaccination efforts while simultaneously saying they care about the vulnerable and equally hope restrictions come to an end sooner rather than later.


  • #1735
    FintanMcluskey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,656 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    Windmill100000 wrote: »
    Im aware of tbe situation here to date, but if the UK R number goes up and they are locked down again it is likely to delay everything even further for us.

    So the goal posts have moved from death’s, to hospitalisation’s to R number?

    If the vulnerable are vaccinated in the UK, of which 18 million have received first dose, it’s going to reduce the hospital numbers and deaths drastically.

    Why would R number still be relevant?


  • #1736
    CruelSummer
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,337 ✭✭✭CruelSummer


    https://www.independent.ie/opinion/comment/fawlty-powers-basil-martins-lockdown-plan-would-be-comedy-gold-if-it-wasnt-so-serious-40121550.html

    Good article :-)


  • #1737
    Samsonsmasher
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 610 ✭✭✭Samsonsmasher


    Martin567 wrote: »
    Was it not clear that I was referring to about June or so when Northern Ireland may have relaxed restrictions far more than here as they will be well ahead on vaccines?

    The Orange Order will be marching this summer while Croke Park will be empty..


  • #1738
    gozunda
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,996 ✭✭✭✭gozunda


    Silentcorner wrote: »
    I don't need to come back in a year, we are already a year into this...the data is telling us exactly what this is and who are most vulnerable to it...we seem to be ignoring that data for a reason I can't fathom!

    We also know that our immune system is at it's weakest at certain times of the year, this is established....it's why we get Winter surges that jam up our hospitals every year....we all know this.

    Look, I get it, to accept all the above you'd have to admit you have bought into the alarmism and hysteria in media...

    And your ideas seem to be ignoring basic facts - like April not being a 'dark' month.

    And no 'alarmism" or "hysteria". The article linked references current research on the likleyhood of seasonality and the experts currently say that is currently unproven.

    So unless you are saying you personally know better than those researching this issue - then your ideas are your own. Nothing else.


  • #1739
    CruelSummer
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,337 ✭✭✭CruelSummer


    Tomas Ryan on prime time and a RESTAURATEUR as the alternative voice?!

    A zero covid extremist who’s been accused of criminally misleading the population...I have no words


  • #1740
    normanoffside
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,234 ✭✭✭✭normanoffside


    Leftwaffe wrote: »
    Fergal Bowers just now on RTE talking about next Autumn and Winter and potential measures being taken with double pressure on the health system. Honestly we are doomed

    I think we should stay locked down until next winter so we don't have to go into lockdown next winter.


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  • #1741
    normanoffside
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,234 ✭✭✭✭normanoffside


    CruelSummer wrote: »
    Tomas Ryan on prime time and a RESTAURATEUR as the alternative voice?!

    A zero covid extremist who’s been accused of criminally misleading the population...I have no words

    Looks like Paul Treyvaud?


This discussion has been closed.
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