Lions Tour

I’m usually a sucker for a Lions squad prediction but there is little point in even speculating at the moment considering we don’t know if it’ll happen and even if it does it most certainly won’t be in the format we know, so the squad will be a lot smaller. And anyway, we are only 2 rounds in!

No Irish player is nailed on and very few are likely based on current form. I think the most likely are Furlong, Murray, Stander and POM since they were trusted as test players 4 years ago and are still around at a similar level now. Henshaw and Henderson failed to make an impression last time so not sure why they'd be invited back.

Ryan, Stockdale and Ringrose are probably the pick of young players who have emerged since but they're in heavily contested positions so might be more likely on the standby list.

bilston wrote: »

As I see it we have 4 guys who really should be nailed on
..about half a dozen who are maybes and two possible bolters.

Likely Tourists
Furlong
Ryan
Henshaw
Ringrose

Possible Tourists
Porter
Henderson
Beirne
Stander
Murray
Sexton
Stockdale


Bolters
Doris
Kelleher

I'd probably put Ringrose in the maybe/possibles to be honest, not so much down to performances but moreso Gatland's preference for centres.

Squidgy Black wrote: »

I'd probably put Ringrose in the maybe/possibles to be honest, not so much down to performances but moreso Gatland's preference for centres.

I don't see a lot out there in the other countries in the centre.

Isn't Davies injured? Has he shown any form in the last 12 months? I like Slade as a player and would bring him, but he doesn't strike me as a typical 13, maybe a footballing 12? I like what I saw of Cameron Redpath against England and could see him as a possible bolter...but IMO there is a strong case for Henshaw and Ringrose to be the test midfield.

But as you say Gatland will have a certain style which might open the door for Bundee actually.

If a player has appeared on a tour before, they're at a huge advantage over others. For guys who have been on a couple of tours, they're in a better position again.

Someone like Jonathan Davies will travel if he's fit. The options at 13 are not particularly strong. There isn't another 13 (Jonathan Joseph aside) who has been on a Lions tour previously and is contention unless Tuilagi is selected and he might well be given the lack of established options. Payne and Te'o are both gone who were on the last tour so I'd fully expect JD to be on the plane even at 33.

Similarly, don't be surprised to see a guy like Murray or Sexton on the plane; particularly Murray who is a big unit against South Africa. The options for halfback are really weak at the moment. Farrell is going to travel on reputation and past performance. There may be no other English halfback. One or both Scottish halfbacks could travel. Biggar might. Tomos Williams has a shot but he doesn't have history on his side. Gatland could well go ahead with only 2 outhalves as per 2009 and 2013 due to a real lack of stand out options. I wouldn't rule out someone like Henry Slade as a guy who can cover 10 in a pinch for Gatland whilst being a test level centre.

Overall, I'd be very worried if I was Gatland based on what he has seen over the past few months. His star players really haven't been hitting the levels they previously were and the lack of game time for Saracens has been key to that. He's going to have some difficult decisions to make if the tour goes ahead.

The Inbetween is mine wrote: »

I think the English have already lost the run of themselves since BoJo announced his opening of the country inside 4 months...
I'm kind of wondering how the UK government is going to underwrite a game played in Dublin...or is that just their get out and have another game in London....

Could Play it in Belfast.

The Inbetween is mine wrote: »

Not really

Why not,?

The Inbetween is mine wrote: »

Logistics, better to keep everything on the one island , who owns ravenhill..how does it work out with using IRFU facilities....it would be equally as disastrous as Dublin imo

No, don't think so. I understand the "one island" logic, but it's ultimately just an arbitrary line.

Those IRFU facilities - Ravenhill - were rebuilt and expanded with money from the UK government. You might think of them as absolutely separate, but the reality is, like 99% percent of life up here, the demarcation isn't that simplistic. Ulster Rugby/the IRFU couldn't operate without an ongoing, working relationship with Stormont and the UK government and as it stands , they operate year in, year out with no real issues.

There’s not a hope a test match will be played in Ravenhill! The Lions are desperate for this to go ahead for commercial reasons, they won’t be having 1 test in a stadium the size of Ravenhill.

If it’s full stadiums, which according to the UK will be possible by then. It’ll be Murrayfield, Millenium Stadium and Twickenham.

Also, if anyone is playing midweeks games it’ll be the Boks, not the Lions.

It's not a very appetising prospect for the non-test Lions is it?
A month stuck in a Milton Keynes hotel without any real chance of playing a test match. Without getting any of the 'touristy' benefits that you'd get if you were in that situation on a real away tour to SA/Oz/NZ. Why would you bother?
Could see plenty of withdrawals when it becomes clear that you're not close to the matchday XV/bench.

SA and the European unions need the broadcast money and it's far better for the broadcasters to have the games in UK/Ireland than in Perth.

Louis Friend wrote: »

It’s pretty obvious how it’s worth it.

You have a public gagging to go to events.

I have tickets to the mickey mouse warm up game in Edinburgh and was due to go to South Africa.

Face value on those tickets was £150. At, say, Twickenham, Cardiff, and, say, Wembley, they can sell 250,000 tickets at an average of, say, £150. Some tickets might be cheaper but then there’s the corporate stuff.

That’s £38m. At a time when the Unions are goosed moneywise. The South Africans will get a decent slug of that and then there’s the broadcasting revenue plus commercial side.

It makes enormous financial sense.

Is a combined England/Wales/Scotland/Ireland side actually that attractive a prospect for a home tour that it would sell out in such figures, plus corporate.

The uniqueness of the Lions was always the concept of the 4 nations coming together for an expedition to the southern hemisphere. Surely playing in their own stadia takes that usp away?

Looking at it purely from an Irish pov - I'd like to see Ireland v SA in Dublin, and I'd also like to see SA v The Lions in say Cape Town. But I'd have just marginal interest in seeing The Lions v SA in Dublin.

But I may very well be underestimating the attractiveness of it.