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When will it all end?

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Comments

  • #3632
    hynesie08
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,383 ✭✭✭✭hynesie08


    beauf wrote: »
    We did this for the second wave. Kildare, Laois and Offaly. Rolled back then Dublin, Donegal. Then Cavan, Donegal and Monaghan. Govt ignored medical advice and eventually it rolled all back into a national one again.

    Ireland isn't big enough for regional restrictions, if you had 10 counties open, you'd have 12 more within an hours drive. It would fail miserably.


  • #3633
    NeuralNetwork
    Closed Accounts Posts: 727 ✭✭✭NeuralNetwork


    beauf wrote: »
    We did this for the second wave. Kildare, Laois and Offaly. Rolled back then Dublin, Donegal. Then Cavan, Donegal and Monaghan. Govt ignored medical advice and eventually it rolled all back into a national one again.

    Which was likely to deal with demands from petty regional rivalry stuff rather than any kind of ability to see big picture.

    Using the lowest common denominator and national policies could create a sense of fairness but end up costing huge money by closing down low risk places.

    Just for example, at the moment Cork and Kerry are showing very low case numbers per 100,000. They could probably see opening up of more things as an isolated regional bubble, with caution and monitoring applied and you enforce entry controls from higher risk areas.

    The tax revenues & reduction of welfare claims by 690,575 people (including the second largest urban area in the state) is a big deal to an population of 4.9 million. That’s 14% of the population able to generate more economic activity to support the rest of us.

    I mean if you picked around the country we could get 25-30% into lesser levels of lockdown.


  • #3634
    NeuralNetwork
    Closed Accounts Posts: 727 ✭✭✭NeuralNetwork


    hynesie08 wrote: »
    Ireland isn't big enough for regional restrictions, if you had 10 counties open, you'd have 12 more within an hours drive. It would fail miserably.

    Ireland at times seems to be lost in a miserable sense of exceptionalism and an inability to do anything that would make sense and that is being done successfully in plenty of other places around Europe.

    It’s not smaller than a cluster of French departments and it’s physically bigger than Belgium and the Netherlands combined and it has significant distances between plenty of its regions.

    If we want to flush a few billion down the toilet for the sake of coming up with a million and one reasons for over centralisation, fair enough but we should at least have a proper discussion about it.


  • #3635
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,461 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    NeuralNetwork wrote: »
    Which was likely to deal with demands from petty regional rivalry stuff rathe... as an isolated regional bubble, with caution and monitoring applied and you enforce entry controls from higher risk areas.....

    We haven't been able to do that, and it failed the last time. National lock-down had better results the first time. Debatable if its worth repeating the least successful approach again.


  • #3636
    NeuralNetwork
    Closed Accounts Posts: 727 ✭✭✭NeuralNetwork


    beauf wrote: »
    We haven't been able to do that, and it failed the last time. National lock-down had better results the first time. Debatable if its worth repeating the same thing again.

    Is not doing it worth the opportunity cost though?

    You’re probably talking about losing very significant chunks of economic activity, possible billions certainly hundreds of millions by keeping things tightly closed if they don’t need to be.

    Also how’s it any different to how? If we are allegedly enforcing a lockdown now why couldn’t that continue where it need to ?

    Are you saying that there are people driving all over the country right now?

    I can’t realistically see how enforcement could be any more complex, particularly when you might do it in large relatively self contained regions.

    It’s also quite different to say the situation a few months ago where the republic was locked down and Northern Ireland, which had run away case numbers was open.

    The high risk areas would be locked down not the low risk ones, which is the opposite of what we had with NI last year.

    If you look at Cork today for example there were 13 cases in the state’s second largest city and a county of over half a million people. Admittedly, we would need to see a trend over the week ahead, but it’s looking like cases have fallen very low.

    Is it sane or reasonable to apply level 5 there if that continues to be the case as we go on? Particularly when you’re looking at a region with a large city and one that’s quite geographically isolated.

    I can’t see there being much public support for it if it’s just about some notional sense of psychological burden sharing.


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  • #3637
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,461 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    ujjjjjjjjj wrote: »
    So to put a number on it what less than 10 cases a day ? Over a 2 week period on average ?

    Or something thereabouts ?

    Why two weeks?

    If you are infectious for 8-10 days maybe longer, probably 1-3 days before symptoms appear. (if they they appear). Everyone you infect may take up to 14 days to appear. So everyone you infected may take up to 24 days to appear. That's 3 weeks. So thats before it gets passed on to a third group or asymptomatic infections. So you'd have to allow that repeat a few times to see a trend. I linked to the chart. Pick the most successful time, measure the longest period with the lowest numbers. Then beat it. At Xmas we had the trend (kinda) but our volumes were still high. That failed. Our stats at the moment are worse than Xmas or on par (AFAIK).

    How long will it take herd immunity work? 2 weeks? How will you know when it has worked. When new cases fall below 10 cases. I'm open to correction but seems like herd immunity can't use the same stats. It has to ignore numbers, volumes and trends. Which is kinda convenient. People will just say the numbers are irreverent. They say herd immunity works best with a vaccine. In fact vaccination itself is a form of herd immunity. But the suggestion in this thread is not to wait to vaccinate majority of the population. Not following the advice of the herd immunity experts seems a little strange.


  • #3638
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,461 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    NeuralNetwork wrote: »
    Is not doing it worth the opportunity cost though?

    You’re probably talking about losing very significant chunks of economic activity, possible billions certainly hundreds of millions by keeping things tightly closed if they don’t need to be.

    Also how’s it any different to how? If we are allegedly enforcing a lockdown now why couldn’t that continue where it need to ?

    Are you saying that there are people driving all over the country right now?

    I can’t realistically see how enforcement could be any more complex, particularly when you might do it in large relatively self contained regions.

    It’s also quite different to say the situation a few months ago where the republic was locked down and Northern Ireland, which had run away case numbers was open.

    The high risk areas would be locked down not the low risk ones, which is the opposite of what we had with NI last year.

    I'm just saying expecting us to do it properly when experience shows we won't seems a bit optimistic.

    We are on an Island, but we threw that advantage away and gave into economics etc. Not sure that worked out too well.


  • #3639
    NeuralNetwork
    Closed Accounts Posts: 727 ✭✭✭NeuralNetwork


    We’re going to have to do it properly though or we are just burdening ourselves with unnecessary hardship and spending money that could be used to both fight covid and for stimulus on supporting places in strict lockdown that possibly don’t need to be.

    I’m not saying throw caution to the wind, or that we need to throw open the pubs or be reckless, but we could for example have a lot of retail working as normal and a city the size of Cork generates significant economic activity, even if it were operating in an isolated bubble for a while it’s better than having the shutters down and spending PUP payments that might not be needed and could be spent where they are.

    Ireland’s regional distances and low density should be an advantage in this compared to countries that don’t have that luxury. We don’t need to just have a one size fits all policy. It is throwing away that advantage.

    You could even break it into say 5 or 6 regions or county clusters as things get better.


  • #3640
    johnire
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,546 ✭✭✭johnire


    Really? Then I really do despair.
    beauf wrote: »
    People on this thread want to copy them.

    https://www.breakingnews.ie/world/coronavirus-in-europe-where-are-the-hotspots-and-how-does-ireland-compare-1083576.html


  • #3641
    bucketybuck
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,044 ✭✭✭✭bucketybuck


    ujjjjjjjjj wrote: »
    The vaccines are excellent.......but yes you are right people need to move on accept they ain't a panacea but will hugely reduce hospitalisation and deaths. But we have to grow up and accept that people will still be catching covid.and some dieing even with comprehensive vaccine roleouts. But normal life must resume.

    One big problem is that the powers that be have become far too blase about taking actions that negatively affect millions of people. When you have imposed restrictions multiple times already then one more becomes easy to do. Used to be it was a big deal to restrict people for a week, now they throw them on for another few months just to see how it goes, no big deal.

    They have become disassociated, operating in an echo chamber and no longer even pretending that they are trying to find alternatives.


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  • #3642
    paw patrol
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,312 ✭✭✭paw patrol


    beauf wrote: »
    People on this thread want to copy them.

    https://www.breakingnews.ie/world/coronavirus-in-europe-where-are-the-hotspots-and-how-does-ireland-compare-1083576.html

    they've had very few limitation put on their lives, yet 1 year into it and they are mid table on deaths.
    We've sacrificed a whole year of everything and we are no better off

    They did ultimately better than us

    positive rates mean nothing, deaths matter - maybe hospitalisations.
    We are all going to be exposed to the virus at some stage to deny that is silly


  • #3643
    the kelt
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,889 ✭✭✭the kelt


    beauf wrote: »
    People on this thread want to copy them.

    https://www.breakingnews.ie/world/coronavirus-in-europe-where-are-the-hotspots-and-how-does-ireland-compare-1083576.html

    Where was that said?


  • #3644
    SheepsClothing
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 350 ✭✭SheepsClothing


    the kelt wrote: »
    Where was that said?

    One post above you.


  • #3645
    the kelt
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,889 ✭✭✭the kelt


    SheepsClothing wrote: »
    One post above you.

    So the poster has an ability to tell the future? Cool.

    And actually that post didnt even say they wanted to copy them?


  • #3646
    the kelt
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,889 ✭✭✭the kelt


    So getting back away from mystic meg land!

    As the thread is titled, "when will it end"

    Whats peoples thoughts as to tomorrows announcement.

    Will it give us any indication as to when it might end?

    Any indication as to when it might actually even ease a bit?

    Or is it still a good bet to take the majority of European countries will ease and even end at some stage and add c. 4 to 6 weeks on top of that for Ireland if we are lucky?


  • #3647
    ShineOn7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,550 ✭✭✭ShineOn7


    At least it's not Mehole communicating "government" policy via a tabloid rag

    So, er, there's that I suppose?

    https://twitter.com/LeoVaradkar/status/1363616787514933250


  • #3648
    ujjjjjjjjj
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 940 ✭✭✭ujjjjjjjjj


    bucketybuck wrote: »
    One big problem is that the powers that be have become far too blase about taking actions that negatively affect millions of people. When you have imposed restrictions multiple times already then one more becomes easy to do. Used to be it was a big deal to restrict people for a week, now they throw them on for another few months just to see how it goes, no big deal.

    They have become disassociated, operating in an echo chamber and no longer even pretending that they are trying to find alternatives.

    Good point and it is an echo chamber full of people still earning exactly the same amount as they did before, with job security and a get out clause that you can trot out for years to come...we were just saving lives.....

    A detached from reality echo chamber.


  • #3649
    paw patrol
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,312 ✭✭✭paw patrol


    the kelt wrote: »
    So the poster has an ability to tell the future? Cool.

    And actually that post didnt even say they wanted to copy them?

    My post didn't.
    But you should see my posts in the restriction thead.
    I most definitely do want minimal restrictions.


  • #3650
    carq
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 886 ✭✭✭carq


    It will not be a good look for the Govt to be announcing exrended lockdowns at the same time that the UK will be easing them

    https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0222/1198499-england-restrictions-easing/


  • #3651
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    the kelt wrote: »
    So getting back away from mystic meg land!

    As the thread is titled, "when will it end"

    Whats peoples thoughts as to tomorrows announcement.

    Will it give us any indication as to when it might end?

    Any indication as to when it might actually even ease a bit?

    Or is it still a good bet to take the majority of European countries will ease and even end at some stage and add c. 4 to 6 weeks on top of that for Ireland if we are lucky?

    I'd keep an eye on what Boris says today moreso than what our crowed do tbh.

    I note there are some rises in COVID on the continent now but these should soon plateau to enable low numbers in time for late spring/early summer.

    I see Nice are asking to tighten things up for next 2 months so they can welcome everybody for the summer.

    The sense is once the 55+ and vulnerable are vaccinated things will reopen quickly. That'll be mid April in the UK and late May in Ireland and Europe.

    Before that outside activities can be encouraged, schools will return and hopefully the 5km is binned.


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  • #3652
    ShineOn7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,550 ✭✭✭ShineOn7


    Doctor Jimbob wrote: »
    Summer should be better he says.


    It's as clear as day to anyone with sense that they're under-selling the roll-out to look like "heroes" in late Summer

    The trio of Leo, the "taoiseach" and that waste of skin Donnelly will all be doing this for months

    I'd get used to it


  • #3653
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 25,909 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    In April (let's say 6 weeks) it'll be 250k per day. Brits are currently doing the equivalent of that and are planning their ramp-up. I'll be finding out this week if I can register at an address up North and get it there because this is ****ing ridiculous. I'd love to know what the excuse is for the EU's ****ty procurement because the US has roughly the same buying power yet had administered less than 1/5 as many vaccines as ****in America has (adjusted for population).
    FFS.


  • #3654
    paw patrol
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,312 ✭✭✭paw patrol


    ShineOn7 wrote: »
    It's as clear as day to anyone with sense that they're under-selling the roll-out to look like "heroes" in late Summer

    The trio of Leo, Mehole and that waste of skin Donnelly will all be doing this for months

    I'd get used to it

    this is Leo at his finest. I mightn't rate him as a minister but in terms of PR and self promotion he a master.

    Watch how Mehole gives the bad news...Leo lets that strew for 48-72 hours then pops up as Mr. Optimism .
    Emotionally we all now think Leo isn't half bad, not like that gimp Mehole.

    Well played.


  • #3655
    the kelt
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,889 ✭✭✭the kelt


    Doctor Jimbob wrote: »
    The thought had crossed my mind all right, I'm just wary of getting my hopes up. Donnelly was on the radio earlier talking up the vaccine rollout and had a notably more optimistic tone than most recent communication. There's definitely vibes of them setting themselves up for a "sure aren't we great" moment.

    To be fair for a lot of people they dont have to do much to be proclaimed as great, particularly a lot on here.

    I mean they could only change the 5k restriction to 10k and we would have masterminds on here proclaiming "wow, there you go now, you can go twice as far as you could before and just be thankful you dont have a curfew"

    To be honest ive seen pigeons that learn faster!


  • #3656
    stefanovich
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,490 ✭✭✭stefanovich


    Deleted User wrote: »
    In April (let's say 6 weeks) it'll be 250k per day. Brits are currently doing the equivalent of that and are planning their ramp-up. I'll be finding out this week if I can register at an address up North and get it there because this is ****ing ridiculous. I'd love to know what the excuse is for the EU's ****ty procurement because the US has roughly the same buying power yet had administered less than 1/5 as many vaccines as ****in America has (adjusted for population).
    FFS.

    It's probably normal procurement inefficiency by EU standards.


  • #3657
    ShineOn7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,550 ✭✭✭ShineOn7


    Deleted User wrote: »
    I'll be finding out this week if I can register at an address up North and get it there because this is ****ing ridiculous


    To get the vaccine as a "new UK resident"?

    Er

    Nah

    Zero chance of this happening


  • #3658
    ShineOn7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,550 ✭✭✭ShineOn7


    paw patrol wrote: »
    this is Leo at his finest. I mightn't rate him as a minister but in terms of PR and self promotion he a master.


    A complete master at it

    If he wasn't in Politics he'd be an Instagram influencer


  • #3659
    ek motor
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 548 ✭✭✭ek motor


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    In April (let's say 6 weeks) it'll be 250k per day. Brits are currently doing the equivalent of that and are planning their ramp-up. I'll be finding out this week if I can register at an address up North and get it there because this is ****ing ridiculous. I'd love to know what the excuse is for the EU's ****ty procurement because the US has roughly the same buying power yet had administered less than 1/5 as many vaccines as ****in America has (adjusted for population).
    FFS.

    250k per week we'll be doing. Brits are doing double that per day currently.


  • #3660
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,461 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    paw patrol wrote: »
    they've had very few limitation put on their lives, yet 1 year into it and they are mid table on deaths.
    We've sacrificed a whole year of everything and we are no better off

    They did ultimately better than us

    positive rates mean nothing, deaths matter - maybe hospitalisations.
    We are all going to be exposed to the virus at some stage to deny that is silly

    Sweden is doing really badly compared to its neighbours.

    Ireland Vs Sweden
    https://georank.org/covid/ireland/sweden

    Ireland has a population density 3 times higher than Sweden, and we did better. We would have done even better if we hadn't opened up at Xmas and lockdown our borders. We basically had our foot on the brake and accelerator at the same time.

    If we copy Sweden herd immunity approach we will do much worse than they did. Even they have changed approach and are taking precautions. But this thread wants to copy the approach that they've stopped.

    Their economy was always going to be less affected then other countries. Because they aren't dependent on the same things like tourism etc.

    https://www.newscientist.com/article/2251615-is-swedens-coronavirus-strategy-a-cautionary-tale-or-a-success-story/

    Copying their approach without their advantages and expecting to have the same outcome or better is flawed thinking.


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  • #3661
    SheepsClothing
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 350 ✭✭SheepsClothing


    Deleted User wrote: »
    In April (let's say 6 weeks) it'll be 250k per day. Brits are currently doing the equivalent of that and are planning their ramp-up. I'll be finding out this week if I can register at an address up North and get it there because this is ****ing ridiculous. I'd love to know what the excuse is for the EU's ****ty procurement because the US has roughly the same buying power yet had administered less than 1/5 as many vaccines as ****in America has (adjusted for population).
    FFS.

    When all is said and done, Ireland will only be a month or so behind the UK. People need to calm down.


This discussion has been closed.
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