2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

Cyrus · 21-02-2021 03:35PM

DataDude wrote: »

Is there anyone on here who’s very familiar with Greystones that might be able to provide some advice? Or even someone with experience buying close to site which was being developed.
We’re interested in a house that is on New Rd, a location we really like. However this particular property backs onto Fairfield Park. Google tells me this is a former caravan park which has been closed since 2016, but planning has recently been granted for 60+ houses. Planning docs/objections show that the developer has agreed to change plans for a number of 3 story houses to bungalows so that this house on New Road is not overlooked. Still concerned about both the prospect of a building site being 100m from our door for a few years and the short term + long term traffic implications. Any local perspectives on this development would be really appreciated.

Is that house not very optimistically priced ? Completely different thing I know but some of the 2300 sq foot houses in the marina went for between 7 & 750 after the price drops .

MacronvFrugals · 21-02-2021 03:46PM

Today's SBP

Shared equity housing scheme could fuel construction in ‘wrong areas’, says ESRI

Fresh concerns have been raised about the government’s shared equity housing scheme, with the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) warning it could stimulate construction in the “wrong areas”.

New evidence of shortcomings in the British scheme have been raised by the ESRI with the Oireachtas housing committee, which showed it “stimulated housing construction in the wrong areas” and increased house prices in London by 6 per cent.

“The UK scheme stimulated housing construction in the wrong areas, so there was an increase in construction but it was not in the areas where the biggest affordability challenges and supply constraints are.

Dr Rachel Slaymaker, a research officer at the ESRI, told the Oireachtas housing committee that the findings of the LSE study are of particular relevance to the proposed shared equity scheme in Ireland.

Slaymaker added that although there was an increase in supply, the “crucial” detail from the LSE study is that additional housing supply was not created where it was needed.

https://www.businesspost.ie/houses/shared-equity-housing-scheme-could-fuel-construction-in-wrong-areas-says-esri-e8c44aa3?auth=login

cnocbui · 21-02-2021 03:52PM

DataDude wrote: »

...

Also the government already ‘penalises’ tonnes of stuff that’s bad for society via taxation. E.g. higher rates of car tax on vehicles with higher emissions. Can’t see how vacant housing can be seen as ‘the line in the sand that they shouldn’t cross’

Advocating and justifying government intervention and social control via taxation, using 'emissions' as a justification is a huge own-goal as it only serves to highlite why government interference in markests and attempts at tax driven social control are a fundamentally bad idea.

Ireland has huge fleet of carcinogen and NOX spewing diesels, precisely because a bunch of morons called the Greens, thought having the governement use taxation to control the behaviour of the populace was a great and worthy idea.

The social housing push is another disaster unfolding, driven by socialist ideals.

Socialism is not an answer, it's a problem.

awec · 21-02-2021 04:01PM

DataDude wrote: »

Is there anyone on here who’s very familiar with Greystones that might be able to provide some advice? Or even someone with experience buying close to site which was being developed.
We’re interested in a house that is on New Rd, a location we really like. However this particular property backs onto Fairfield Park. Google tells me this is a former caravan park which has been closed since 2016, but planning has recently been granted for 60+ houses. Planning docs/objections show that the developer has agreed to change plans for a number of 3 story houses to bungalows so that this house on New Road is not overlooked. Still concerned about both the prospect of a building site being 100m from our door for a few years and the short term + long term traffic implications. Any local perspectives on this development would be really appreciated.

I don't think traffic would be an issue, New Road is not a through road and it has always seemed very quiet to me traffic wise.

The building site thing would probably be annoying for a couple of years, especially at the early stages when there'll be trucks in and out constantly.

What developer is it?

DataDude · 21-02-2021 05:22PM

Cyrus wrote: »

Is that house not very optimistically priced ? Completely different thing I know but some of the 2300 sq foot houses in the marina went for between 7 & 750 after the price drops .

I think a bit, yeah. It's been for sale for a long time now. Went sale agreed below asking early this year (not sure by how much) but now looks to be falling through. We considered the ones in the Marina alright, and in particular the showhouse which dropped from €1.2m to €950k in the end, but as with all new builds, no gardens at all which is a big priority for us.

awec wrote: »

I don't think traffic would be an issue, New Road is not a through road and it has always seemed very quiet to me traffic wise.

The building site thing would probably be annoying for a couple of years, especially at the early stages when there'll be trucks in and out constantly.

What developer is it?

Thanks for that, good to know. I walk by New Road the odd time and has never seemed too crazy. It's the guy who owned and closed the old mobile home park, William Fenelon, who's received the permission. Not sure what normal course of events from there are - i.e. is he now likely to auction it off to highest bidding developer or if he'll look to proceed himself.

Hard to know what the monetary value of a few years of inconvenience is!

hometruths · 21-02-2021 05:30PM

DataDude wrote: »

Is there anyone on here who’s very familiar with Greystones that might be able to provide some advice? Or even someone with experience buying close to site which was being developed.
We’re interested in a house that is on New Rd, a location we really like. However this particular property backs onto Fairfield Park. Google tells me this is a former caravan park which has been closed since 2016, but planning has recently been granted for 60+ houses. Planning docs/objections show that the developer has agreed to change plans for a number of 3 story houses to bungalows so that this house on New Road is not overlooked. Still concerned about both the prospect of a building site being 100m from our door for a few years and the short term + long term traffic implications. Any local perspectives on this development would be really appreciated.

From the look of house/garden, your neighbor on New Road would be a bigger overlooking concern than the new development.

I’d be cautious that the planning docs you’re viewing might end up changing a bit. I understood that the applicant applied for planning to boost value for sale of the site, (obviously a nice pay day if it has pp for 60+ Houses) but he himself has no intention of getting into the building game.

I’ve no idea if he applied in conjunction with the developer, which I guess is a possibility. But if not, you run the risk of a big time developer buying the site and using all their nous to amend the plans, which presumably would not be for lower density.

Personally I’d make sure of that before I bought. Traffic and other inconveniences will pass in time.

Edit - I see you posted whilst I was typing and you’re aware it may now end up with the highest bidder! Good luck!

DataDude · 21-02-2021 05:40PM

schmittel wrote: »

From the look of house/garden, your neighbor on New Road would be a bigger overlooking concern than the new development.

I’d be cautious that the planning docs you’re viewing might end up changing a bit. I understood that the applicant applied for planning to boost value for sale of the site, (obviously a nice pay day if it has pp for 60+ Houses) but he himself has no intention of getting into the building game.

I’ve no idea if he applied in conjunction with the developer, which I guess is a possibility. But if not, you run the risk of a big time developer buying the site and using all their nous to amend the plans, which presumably would not be for lower density.

Personally I’d make sure of that before I bought. Traffic and other inconveniences will pass in time.

Edit - I see you posted whilst I was typing and you’re aware it may now end up with the highest bidder! Good luck!

Thanks for this, we've been thinking about it a fair bit over the last few days and ultimately the point you raise re. potential changes to plans was the one
that was dissuading us the most. The emotional strain of fighting some developer (and likely losing) would take a huge toll.

Enough question marks, and not like it's a bargain anyway...The wait continues (probably)!

hometruths · 21-02-2021 05:49PM

DataDude wrote: »

Thanks for this, we've been thinking about it a fair bit over the last few days and ultimately the point you raise re. potential changes to plans was the one
that was dissuading us the most. The emotional strain of fighting some developer (and likely losing) would take a huge toll.

Enough question marks, and not like it's a bargain anyway...The wait continues (probably)!

Out of interest, and please tell me to sh*g off if I’m being nosy, do you think you’ll trade up in the medium term from whatever you buy now or are you looking for a lifetime house?

If you’re on big bucks now, is it likely you’ll be on super big bucks in 5 years or so?

DataDude · 21-02-2021 06:02PM

schmittel wrote: »

Out of interest, and please tell me to sh*g off if I’m being nosy, do you think you’ll trade up in the medium term from whatever you buy now or are you looking for a lifetime house?

If you’re on big bucks now, is it likely you’ll be on super big bucks in 5 years or so?

Our hope was to get a home that we'd be happy to stay in forever rather than one we'd want to upgrade.

It's possible/probable (but not guaranteed) income could go from 200s to 300s in 5-10 years. Beyond that would take a combination of sacrifice and even more luck than I've already had so wouldn't bank on it. My thinking has always been, we'd look to pay off the house ASAP, taking the pressure off financially in order to work less/retire early rather than taking a "keeping up with Joneses" type mentality...but then I see the odd house like this and think "I'd be happy to defer retirement by a few years for that".

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/pine-lodge-new-road-greystones-wicklow/4369599

hometruths · 21-02-2021 06:46PM

DataDude wrote: »

Our hope was to get a home that we'd be happy to stay in forever rather than one we'd want to upgrade.

It's possible/probable (but not guaranteed) income could go from 200s to 300s in 5-10 years. Beyond that would take a combination of sacrifice and even more luck than I've already had so wouldn't bank on it. My thinking has always been, we'd look to pay off the house ASAP, taking the pressure off financially in order to work less/retire early rather than taking a "keeping up with Joneses" type mentality...but then I see the odd house like this and think "I'd be happy to defer retirement by a few years for that". https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/pine-lodge-new-road-greystones-wicklow/4369599

Saoirse Ronan’s old house. It seems to have sold three times in last 3 years so you might get a crack at it yet!

awec · 21-02-2021 09:09PM

schmittel wrote: »

Saoirse Ronan’s old house. It seems to have sold three times in last 3 years so you might get a crack at it yet!

Has it actually sold numerous times?

I know it was being sold by Saoirse Ronan 2 years ago but that link from DataDude doesn't have a date on it and it's the exact same photos that were used when I saw it back then. Maybe it was just never de-listed?

It's a cracking gaff IMO, nice location too. New Road is a nice area and close to Church Road. Hard to see why someone would buy it then flip it on so quickly.

hometruths · 21-02-2021 09:15PM

awec wrote: »

Has it actually sold numerous times?

I know it was being sold by Saoirse Ronan 2 years ago but that link from DataDude doesn't have a date on it and it's the exact same photos that were used when I saw it back then. Maybe it was just never de-listed?

It's a cracking gaff IMO, nice location too. New Road is a nice area and close to Church Road. Hard to see why someone would buy it then flip it on so quickly.

My mistake, I thought it was three times but its actually only on PPR twice, another Pine Lodge on Killincarrick Road sold as well.

I thought it was Saoirse Ronan that flipped it.

awec · 21-02-2021 09:26PM

schmittel wrote: »

My mistake, I thought it was three times but its actually only on PPR twice, another Pine Lodge on Killincarrick Road sold as well.

I thought it was Saoirse Ronan that flipped it.

You are probably right.

Can’t fault her taste.

Smiley11 · 21-02-2021 09:43PM

schmittel wrote: »

Saoirse Ronan’s old house. It seems to have sold three times in last 3 years so you might get a crack at it yet!

Thats a serious house! I'd never, ever leave that! Few tweaks on the decor & a few mill in the bank account & we'd be laughing! Off to the PPR I go to check out those sold prices...

21-02-2021 09:53PM

DataDude wrote: »

Our hope was to get a home that we'd be happy to stay in forever rather than one we'd want to upgrade.

It's possible/probable (but not guaranteed) income could go from 200s to 300s in 5-10 years. Beyond that would take a combination of sacrifice and even more luck than I've already had so wouldn't bank on it. My thinking has always been, we'd look to pay off the house ASAP, taking the pressure off financially in order to work less/retire early rather than taking a "keeping up with Joneses" type mentality...but then I see the odd house like this and think "I'd be happy to defer retirement by a few years for that". https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/pine-lodge-new-road-greystones-wicklow/4369599

That's a fabulous house, I would love it. Great location too

DataDude · 21-02-2021 10:20PM

bubblypop wrote: »

That's a fabulous house, I would love it. Great location too

Stunning. I know the science says you’d quickly get used to it and then want something better...but I’d love to test it out for myself.

I think the person who bought it for €1.66m got it for a steal, which is surprising given the publicity around it at the time. When you compare it to Solhaven which went for slightly more (http://s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/mediamaster-s3eu/3/a/3a157859627331f6a6b15b8d6010284e.pdf), it seems a great price. Solhaven fabulous too but just on location alone I’d have Pine Lodge in a different price bracket altogether.

awec · 21-02-2021 10:47PM

DataDude wrote: »

Stunning. I know the science says you’d quickly get used to it and then want something better...but I’d love to test it out for myself.

I think the person who bought it for €1.66m got it for a steal, which is surprising given the publicity around it at the time. When you compare it to Solhaven which went for slightly more (http://s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/mediamaster-s3eu/3/a/3a157859627331f6a6b15b8d6010284e.pdf), it seems a great price. Solhaven fabulous too but just on location alone I’d have Pine Lodge in a different price bracket altogether.

That one is a bit characterless IMO. Someone has said they want a modern gaff (10-15 years ago when exposed wood was all the thing, I think every celtic house ever built in Ireland has exposed wood detailing) but they haven't really had any ideas of their own.

The Pine Lodge is far better.

awec · 21-02-2021 11:50PM

https://www.msn.com/en-ie/lifestyle/home-and-garden/famous-movie-mansion-goes-up-for-sale-in-killiney-county-dublin/ar-BB1dQVOC?ocid=msedgntp

schmittel I think this is the gaff we were talking about before! I didn't realise it had been used for a movie.

PropQueries · 21-02-2021 11:53PM

According to the IPAV, there are a potential 100,000 empty flats and apartments over retail units in Ireland.

According to Pat Davit of the IPAV: “We think there are about 100,000 empty liveable spaces above shops and retail premises around the country”

With all the existing vacant homes, a growing number of probate sales entering the market each and every year, potential units above shops and offices etc., we really don’t have a housing supply problem, we have a gross mismanagement of existing housing supply problem in this country IMO

Link to article in Irish Independent here: https://independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/call-to-use-empty-units-for-housing-40114200.html

hometruths · 21-02-2021 11:54PM

awec wrote: »

https://www.msn.com/en-ie/lifestyle/home-and-garden/famous-movie-mansion-goes-up-for-sale-in-killiney-county-dublin/ar-BB1dQVOC?ocid=msedgntp

schmittel I think this is the gaff we were talking about before! I didn't realise it had been used for a movie.

Me neither, surprised it’s not a more talked about house so.

When I clicked linked I was expecting to read it was sold in record time!

hometruths · 21-02-2021 11:57PM

PropQueries wrote: »

According to the IPAV, there are 100,000 empty flats and apartments over retail units in Ireland.

According to Pat Davit of the IPAV: “We think there are about 100,000 empty liveable spaces above shops and retail premises around the country”

With all the existing vacant homes, a growing number of probate sales entering the market each and every year, potential units above shops and offices etc., we really don’t have a housing supply problem, we have a gross mismanagement of existing housing supply problem in this country IMO

Link to article in Irish Independent here: https://independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/call-to-use-empty-units-for-housing-40114200.html

I wonder if those are in addition to the 180,000 CSo vacancies. I would expect so.

Seems like there is a surplus of property everywhere you care to look except for myhome.ie!

accensi0n · 22-02-2021 12:00AM

PropQueries wrote: »

According to the IPAV, there are a potential 100,000 empty flats and apartments over retail units in Ireland.

According to Pat Davit of the IPAV: “We think there are about 100,000 empty liveable spaces above shops and retail premises around the country”

With all the existing vacant homes, a growing number of probate sales entering the market each and every year, potential units above shops and offices etc., we really don’t have a housing supply problem, we have a gross mismanagement of existing housing supply problem in this country IMO

Link to article in Irish Independent here: https://independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/call-to-use-empty-units-for-housing-40114200.html

Can you really lump the units above shops/offices into the mismanagement point though?
I mean, I have a spare room in my gaff, has the supply of my house been mismanaged?

PropQueries · 22-02-2021 12:03AM

accensi0n wrote: »

Can you really lump the units above shops/offices into the mismanagement point though?
I mean, I have a spare room in my gaff, has the supply of my house been mismanaged?

Most other cities, towns and villages in the world make extensive use of the space above retail and offices as flats and apartments. We are one of the only countries in the developed world that doesn’t for some very very strange reason.

hometruths · 22-02-2021 12:09AM

accensi0n wrote: »

Can you really lump the units above shops/offices into the mismanagement point though?
I mean, I have a spare room in my gaff, has the supply of my house been mismanaged?

Not if you’re paying your mortgage/own it outright.

However if you’re 10 years in arrears, then yes the supply of your house has been mismanaged.

accensi0n · 22-02-2021 12:11AM

schmittel wrote: »

Not if you’re paying your mortgage/own it outright.

However if you’re 10 years in arrears, then yes the supply of your house has been mismanaged.

Oh, are a lot of these commercial properties in arrears?

PropQueries · 22-02-2021 12:11AM

schmittel wrote: »

I wonder if those are in addition to the 180,000 CSo vacancies. I would expect so.

Seems like there is a surplus of property everywhere you care to look except for myhome.ie!

So we obviously don’t have a land supply problem in any of our urban centres (incl. Dublin). We also obviously don’t have an actual housing supply problem. More an existing mismanagement of existing housing supply problem.

It’s going to become very evident as some stage. Question is when...

hometruths · 22-02-2021 12:14AM

accensi0n wrote: »

Oh, are a lot of these commercial properties in arrears?

I doubt it, or they’d be repossessed. Was making a tangential point on residential properties.

cnocbui · 22-02-2021 03:08AM

PropQueries wrote: »

According to the IPAV, there are a potential 100,000 empty flats and apartments over retail units in Ireland.

According to Pat Davit of the IPAV: “We think there are about 100,000 empty liveable spaces above shops and retail premises around the country”

With all the existing vacant homes, a growing number of probate sales entering the market each and every year, potential units above shops and offices etc., we really don’t have a housing supply problem, we have a gross mismanagement of existing housing supply problem in this country IMO

Link to article in Irish Independent here: https://independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/call-to-use-empty-units-for-housing-40114200.html

I'd imagine the BER rating of those units would be atrocious and as always, someone is likely being very loose with the term habitable. People making such claims should be made to live in one for a month in winter. I had a quick look on google street view at one small town near me and I doubt these premises have any insulation and a high percentage of them even have single pane sash windows, which I can tell you from experience are cold and drafty.

I have often gazed at such premises in my locale and wondered why they weren't occupied, but many seem to used as storage spaces for the shop below, judging by the amount of stuff that can be seen through the windows.

PropQueries · 22-02-2021 09:55AM

cnocbui wrote: »

I'd imagine the BER rating of those units would be atrocious and as always, someone is likely being very loose with the term habitable. People making such claims should be made to live in one for a month in winter. I had a quick look on google street view at one small town near me and I doubt these premises have any insulation and a high percentage of them even have single pane sash windows, which I can tell you from experience are cold and drafty.

I have often gazed at such premises in my locale and wondered why they weren't occupied, but many seem to used as storage spaces for the shop below, judging by the amount of stuff that can be seen through the windows.

Fair enough. But that's the problem right there IMO.

Between existing vacant homes, potential units above shops, holiday homes etc., we probably have 10 years worth of potential housing supply already built and just waiting to be re-introduced into the market.

A bit of imagination and we probably wouldn't need to build one new residential unit in Ireland.

Annual probate sales alone should be enough to cater for the demand from higher income households seeking large homes in prime locations in every city, town and village in Ireland.

All the housing supply required to meet the demands from everyone else could probably be met by utilising our existing vacant or potential housing stock much more imaginatively IMO

Hubertj · 22-02-2021 10:27AM

Comedy gold. You couldn’t make this stuff up. No professional qualifications.... no accountability, I wonder how this will translate into the delivery of large scale housing projects. I have a fair idea.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/opinion/commentanalysis/arid-40230806.html

2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1