Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

1…117118120122123…351

Comments

  • #3572
    HansKroenke
    Closed Accounts Posts: 254 ✭✭HansKroenke


    Cyrus wrote: »
    Is referring to what’s actually happening talking up the property market ?

    Because despite the narrative on here I have not seen anyone talk up the market in any real way , the thread is dominated by people who are forecasting property price drops from 10 percent all the way to 75 percent in the near term .

    I can’t recall anyone forecasting any material increases.

    My point was more of a response to the claims that "many" had talked down the market, certainly in the media anyway, rather than actually talking down the market myself.

    And referring to CSO hard data is talking about what is happening, the articles I highlighted above included opinions on the state of the market.


  • #3573
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,697 ✭✭✭hometruths


    McWilliams reckons we need to build 55,000 houses a year
    The natural increase in housing demands 18,000 units per year, migration another 12,000, while changing housing structure along with divorce and separation adds 15,000. Obsolescence adds another 10,000, giving a total figure of about 55,000 units per year – significantly higher that the government’s 25,000 estimate.

    For all I agree with his podcast, I think 55k a year is nonsense. I think it's the highest estimate I have seen, has anybody else seen higher?


  • #3574
    HansKroenke
    Closed Accounts Posts: 254 ✭✭HansKroenke


    No harm to be safe, given the projected population growth over the next 3 decades. 55,000 would be required just to meet the population growth by 2057. The level of forward planning is alas likely beyond the grasp of our combined political elite however.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/population-could-grow-to-6-7m-by-2051-says-cso-1.3537977


  • #3575
    cnocbui
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,185 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    schmittel wrote: »
    McWilliams reckons we need to build 55,000 houses a year

    For all I agree with his podcast, I think 55k a year is nonsense. I think it's the highest estimate I have seen, has anybody else seen higher?

    With 70% of adult children still living with their parents, what figure do you suggest? But don't worry, i very much doubt there are enough trades people in this country to achive anything like that rate.


  • #3576
    combat14
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,432 ✭✭✭combat14


    cnocbui wrote: »
    With 70% of adult children still living with their parents, what figure do you suggest? But don't worry, i very much doubt there are enough trades people in this country to achive anything like that rate.

    i wouldnt worry either if house prices and rents keep rising post covid young people will be fleeing this country in droves again


  • Advertisement
  • #3577
    cnocbui
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,185 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    jill_valentine wrote: »
    Banks will now refuse you a mortgage for a property they decide you do not have the means to do up to standard in short order because your house is their collateral. If you're already stretching for the mortgage in the first place, which you will be, buying a fixer upper is literally not an option. They will take a look at it, and you, and decline. It's become quite a strict thing after the recession, because the issue of houses as collateral became suddenly very topical.

    It's why ads for mortgages used to show trusty have-a-go handymen doing plumbing or woodwork, and now the plucky young couple is only ever painting.

    I did some maths on the subject of house prices in Dublin county in October of last year, so when prices were actually not too far off what we consider normal -

    The properties did not exist to be bought within the range of the average earner.

    I would propose then that the mismatch is in the kinds of properties we were building and what the majority actually need and can afford.

    A house that needs renovation, but is habitable, has no value that a bank will lend against?

    My current house needed finishing, not just renovation. We got a loan for the purchase price and the finishing costs. We did have fairly good collateral, but the borrowed amount was still significant at the time.

    I suppose those were the good old days before banks retreated into their tiny little tax payer funded shells.

    A few months ago you can get an apartment in Limerick for around €70 K.


  • #3578
    cnocbui
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,185 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    combat14 wrote: »
    i wouldnt worry either if house prices and rents keep rising post covid young people will be fleeing this country in droves again

    I'm not sure that will be as easy as in the past. Fortunately I shouldn't have a problem.


  • #3579
    Cyrus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,961 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    combat14 wrote: »
    i wouldnt worry either if house prices and rents keep rising post covid young people will be fleeing this country in droves again

    Mostly to Australia with their property market that puts ours in the shade :)


  • #3580
    decreds
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 144 ✭✭decreds


    HansKroenke wrote: »
    No harm to be safe, given the projected population growth over the next 3 decades. 55,000 would be required just to meet the population growth by 2057. The level of forward planning is alas likely beyond the grasp of our combined political elite however.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/population-could-grow-to-6-7m-by-2051-says-cso-1.3537977


    Projected population growth is severely over estimated (at least for this decade) for multiple reasons:


    * We won't have mass immigration for years
    * Less people are dating/meeting new people
    * People are fearful, fearful people tend to put off reproducing
    * There is going to be a historical amount of divorces/separations incoming


  • #3581
    decreds
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 144 ✭✭decreds


    DataDude wrote: »
    Of course agree with above but I do think the primary reason younger people are disillusioned an feel house prices need to fall in price is they compare themselves to what their equivalent in the prior generation could have done. This is why McWilliams etc. views resonate with so many.

    I know (and am related to) so many people in their 50s/60s who had incredibly average careers with limited educations, never earning above today's equivalent of €150k living in €2m+ houses in Dalkey. The reality is were they the exact same person, exact same career a few decades later they'd be potentially looking for social housing. It's that dramatic mismatch in the inflation of property prices vs wages that drives the undercurrent of discontent.

    I'm incredibly fortunate to be in a very top percentile of earners but it drives me up the wall hearing my parents/aunts/uncles talk in a sympathetic (but really condescending) tone about cousin x who's "35 and still can't afford his/her own home" as if it's some sort of failing on their behalf. Then often use my position as proof that "it's still possible today, nothing wrong with house prices". The reality is cousin X is doing absolutely fine and their career is on a par with their parents before them, but "average earnings" don't really get you a whole lot anymore.

    I might not fit the description of young locked out buyer, but I can clearly see their plight and do think you need to be a little bit blinkered to not do so.

    It's scares the life out of me, but I truly think it's the mindset/denial above that's going to lead to fairly radical political reform in the not too distant future. Prices falls will come with that overhaul I'm sure, unfortunately so will after tax incomes...(as a side note to anyone disillusioned as I have described above feeling locked out, the reality is our "extreme left" parties are actually bizarrely anti-young people in many ways and will staunchly defend the "poor old person" in their €4m house in Colimore Road which they can barely heat because "The home isn't an asset (LOL)"


    Completely agree with all points in this great post, especially the section on radical political reform. Here's how i see the next decade playing out and how it impacts the property market:



    2021: Lockdowns for most of the year, property market pretty much not stagnant. Further divide between the haves and have nots. Not much changes in property prices.



    2022: Partial lockdowns, government support removed, further economic decline due to this. Supply slowly dripping to the market as fear slowly subsides about the virus. Further divide between haves and have nots due to removal of the PUP payment. Perhaps 10% drop in prices in Dublin to supply + blended WFH.



    2023: Still recovering from economic fallout caused by the pandemic. With an guesstimated 70-80% of grown adults still living at home due to high rents/not able to buy, the discontent rises and the Have nots grow sick and tired of situation and it becomes clear SF have a strong chance of gaining power in the following years election. Current Gov was already panicking about this possibility and ramps up housing supply but it will probably be too little too late. Property prices drop 5-10%.


    2024:

    SF gain power. Brain drain commences due to tax increases to fund social housing. This could be the beginning of a property crash.


    2024-2028:
    This is anyone's guess, i try to remaining apolitical but i fear landlords will be targeted by SF and supporters. Not something akin to Mao Zedong treatment of landlords during the Chinese land reform but it won't be pretty from an financial standpoint at least. If sh!t hit's the fan it may only be a 1 term government but I'm completely guessing at this stage.


  • Advertisement
  • #3582
    jmlad2020
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 691 ✭✭✭jmlad2020


    Is now a good time to buy in historically cheaper regions (The West, North West) especially now with remote working?


  • #3583
    Marius34
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    So here we go, 2020 Q4 results finally completed.
    Sorry to disappoint again those who were going against my predictions.
    Marius34 wrote: »

    Early Prediction: CSO Property Price Index to turn positive for 2020 Q4.

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=115260157&postcount=8731

    Update 1

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=115420662&postcount=9652

    Update 2
    So most of the 2020 Q4 has been added on PPR (~90%), it appears transaction level is back to Pre-Crisis level.
    There are no big change over December, slight decrease on Median price in Dublin, and slight increase outside Dublin, when comparing to my last post in November, on PPR data, but still well above 2019.
    The CSO Price Index is scheduled for Tuesday. I expect it will be the month when negative to turn positive Nationally, it probably still will appear negative on report for Dublin due to Data Smoothing, thus Dublin Co. may turn positive a month later.

    End of The Story:

    "Residential property prices (houses and apartments) increased by 2.2% nationally in the year to December."
    "In Dublin, residential property prices saw an increase of 1.2% in the year to December, while property prices outside Dublin were 3.1% higher."
    https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexdecember2020/


  • #3584
    cnocbui
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,185 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    jmlad2020 wrote: »
    Is now a good time to buy in historically cheaper regions (The West, North West) especially now with remote working?

    If you are the one who will be doing the working from what you buy, and it works for you, it might well be. If you are thinking of buying something just as an investment, i wouldn't be taking that punt, personally.


  • #3585
    Villa05
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,909 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Cyrus wrote:
    as i said McWilliams lives in a 7 figure house on the southside, you need to take that into perspective when listen to him.

    I think he addresses your concern in the podcat

    cnocbui wrote:
    On the currently buying thread, I have lost count of the number of people who complain about the number of properties requiring renovation and the lack of turn-keys in their price range.
    Your point has been addressed by others but just to add. Limited borrowing capacity,



    decreds wrote:
    * We won't have mass immigration for years * Less people are dating/meeting new people * People are fearful, fearful people tend to put off reproducing * There is going to be a historical amount of divorces/separations incoming

    And of course, high property cost leading to also very high childcare costs
    Double whammy meaning children are unaffordable.

    We have allowed property to be a parasite on our people


  • #3586
    cnocbui
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,185 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    We need to get tradespeople and builders to accept hefty incom cuts.


  • #3587
    Cyrus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,961 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    decreds wrote: »
    Projected population growth is severely over estimated (at least for this decade) for multiple reasons:


    * We won't have mass immigration for years
    * Less people are dating/meeting new people
    * People are fearful, fearful people tend to put off reproducing
    * There is going to be a historical amount of divorces/separations incoming

    A little like property prices birth rates at the moment are up

    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/health-family/baby-boom-or-baby-bust-how-covid-19-has-affected-pregnancy-1.4368524%3fmode=amp


  • #3588
    Eric Cartman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,280 ✭✭✭✭Eric Cartman


    decreds wrote: »
    Completely agree with all points in this great post, especially the section on radical political reform. Here's how i see the next decade playing out and how it impacts the property market:



    2021: Lockdowns for most of the year, property market pretty much not stagnant. Further divide between the haves and have nots. Not much changes in property prices.



    2022: Partial lockdowns, government support removed, further economic decline due to this. Supply slowly dripping to the market as fear slowly subsides about the virus. Further divide between haves and have nots due to removal of the PUP payment. Perhaps 10% drop in prices in Dublin to supply + blended WFH.



    2023: Still recovering from economic fallout caused by the pandemic. With an guesstimated 70-80% of grown adults still living at home due to high rents/not able to buy, the discontent rises and the Have nots grow sick and tired of situation and it becomes clear SF have a strong chance of gaining power in the following years election. Current Gov was already panicking about this possibility and ramps up housing supply but it will probably be too little too late. Property prices drop 5-10%.


    2024:

    SF gain power. Brain drain commences due to tax increases to fund social housing. This could be the beginning of a property crash.


    2024-2028:
    This is anyone's guess, i try to remaining apolitical but i fear landlords will be targeted by SF and supporters. Not something akin to Mao Zedong treatment of landlords during the Chinese land reform but it won't be pretty from an financial standpoint at least. If sh!t hit's the fan it may only be a 1 term government but I'm completely guessing at this stage.

    In general i dont agree with lots of this but SF getting to power in 2024 and all the professionals and business owners leaving to avoid insane taxes i can absolutely see happening sadly.


  • #3589
    beggars_bush
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,938 ✭✭✭beggars_bush


    Eric Cartman wrote: »
    In general i dont agree with lots of this but SF getting to power in 2024 and all the professionals and business owners leaving to avoid insane taxes i can absolutely see happening sadly.

    Where will they go? Seriously?


  • #3590
    Smouse156
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 573 ✭✭✭Smouse156


    cnocbui wrote: »
    We need to get tradespeople and builders to accept hefty incom cuts.

    We need landowners (development land) who contribute virtually nothing to society to take a big hit to their “assets” either through windfall tax, mass Re-zoning or compulsory purchase orders at agricultural land prices.


  • #3591
    Smouse156
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 573 ✭✭✭Smouse156


    beggars_bush wrote: »
    Where will they go? Seriously?

    On a serious note the best & brightest can quite easily find jobs abroad if high taxes eat much of their income. Sinn Féin need to come up with real alternatives to FFG continuously propping up overpriced housing...maybe by focusing on cost of construction especially land


  • Advertisement
  • #3592
    Hubertj
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    Smouse156 wrote: »
    We need landowners (development land) who contribute virtually nothing to society to take a big hit to their “assets” either through windfall tax, mass Re-zoning or compulsory purchase orders at agricultural land prices.

    I thought land costs accounted for only 11% of costs? I think there are other costs that need to be addressed as well but labour isnt 1 of them.


  • #3593
    Villa05
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,909 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Cyrus wrote:
    A little like property prices birth rates at the moment are up


    It might have gone unnoticed but the best chance of getting an affordable home for some people is the number of children you have. This is not a slight on these people. This is a product of the system

    For others, mainly working its a very different story


  • #3594
    enricoh
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,334 ✭✭✭enricoh


    cnocbui wrote: »
    We need to get tradespeople and builders to accept hefty incom cuts.

    I take it your not a tradesperson or builder! They took plenty of cuts from 2008-2014/5. You have to make hay while it shines in building.


  • #3595
    Villa05
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,909 ✭✭✭Villa05


    enricoh wrote:
    I take it your not a tradesperson or builder! They took plenty of cuts from 2008-2014/5. You have to make hay while it shines in building.

    Workers are a non issue, it can be hard graft and they are paid appropriately
    Many are self employed which needs to be taken into account


  • #3596
    Eric Cartman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,280 ✭✭✭✭Eric Cartman


    beggars_bush wrote: »
    Where will they go? Seriously?

    Theres still a few countries left without insane tax laws.

    Poland will be my destination if SF ever get power. Taxation is still high but more reasonable than here.


  • #3597
    HansKroenke
    Closed Accounts Posts: 254 ✭✭HansKroenke


    Eric Cartman wrote: »
    Theres still a few countries left without insane tax laws.

    Poland will be my destination if SF ever get power. Taxation is still high but more reasonable than here.

    For myself, Switzerland is an option. I'd consider it if SF got into power.


  • #3598
    cnocbui
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,185 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Tax laws are already insane to my mind and irrespective of whether or not they get any worse, I'm intending to emigrate to NZ. Currently no CGT, 8% less consumption tax and far lower overall tax burden on people.


  • #3599
    cnocbui
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,185 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    HansKroenke wrote: »
    For myself, Switzerland is an option. I'd consider it if SF got into power.

    You are very lucky. I like Switzeralnd a lot, but residency requirements are pretty tough to meet.


  • #3600
    MacronvFrugals
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,045 ✭✭✭MacronvFrugals


    Many first-time buyers will be frozen out of purchasing new apartments

    A Business Post analysis has revealed that apartment costs are set to rise far beyond the mortgage-borrowing ability of many prospective new homeowners
    New-build apartments are expected to make up the majority of the market within two years, according to real estate agents sources, which is predicted to drive up the cost of apartments.

    The information on new-build apartment prices was gathered from documentation that was supplied by developers to An Bord Pleanála.
    Based on the findings, typical first-time buyers will not be able to afford new-build two-bed apartments in Dublin. Nearly half of first-time buyers could also struggle to afford new-build one-bed apartments in the city.
    In central Dublin, first-time buyers will probably need to earn a total household salary of €117,000 to afford a new-build two-bed apartment. A two-bed in Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown will likely requiring a salary of €110,000.

    Based on data published by the Central Statistics Office, only 14 per cent of Irish households earn in excess of €100,000.
    Lorcan Sirr, a senior lecturer in housing at Technological University Dublin, said contradictory housing policy has facilitated the surge in apartment prices.

    “Government policy is trying to encourage densification and confusing that with having to build apartments. On the other hand, policy has made them so expensive and lowered the quality, so no one wants to live in them. What we're doing is doubling down and forcing people out to commuter counties where they can buy an affordable house.


    https://www.businesspost.ie/houses/many-first-time-buyers-will-be-frozen-out-of-purchasing-new-apartments-dfea5e76?auth=login


  • Advertisement
  • #3601
    MacronvFrugals
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,045 ✭✭✭MacronvFrugals


    Eric Cartman wrote: »
    Theres still a few countries left without insane tax laws.

    Poland will be my destination if SF ever get power. Taxation is still high but more reasonable than here.


    I hope you're not gay or a women...


This discussion has been closed.
Advertisement