2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

enricoh

cnocbui wrote: »

We need to get tradespeople and builders to accept hefty incom cuts.

I take it your not a tradesperson or builder! They took plenty of cuts from 2008-2014/5. You have to make hay while it shines in building.

Villa05

enricoh wrote:

I take it your not a tradesperson or builder! They took plenty of cuts from 2008-2014/5. You have to make hay while it shines in building.

Workers are a non issue, it can be hard graft and they are paid appropriately
Many are self employed which needs to be taken into account

Eric Cartman

beggars_bush wrote: »

Where will they go? Seriously?

Theres still a few countries left without insane tax laws.

Poland will be my destination if SF ever get power. Taxation is still high but more reasonable than here.

HansKroenke

Eric Cartman wrote: »

Theres still a few countries left without insane tax laws.

Poland will be my destination if SF ever get power. Taxation is still high but more reasonable than here.

For myself, Switzerland is an option. I'd consider it if SF got into power.

cnocbui

Tax laws are already insane to my mind and irrespective of whether or not they get any worse, I'm intending to emigrate to NZ. Currently no CGT, 8% less consumption tax and far lower overall tax burden on people.

cnocbui

HansKroenke wrote: »

For myself, Switzerland is an option. I'd consider it if SF got into power.

You are very lucky. I like Switzeralnd a lot, but residency requirements are pretty tough to meet.

MacronvFrugals

Many first-time buyers will be frozen out of purchasing new apartments

A Business Post analysis has revealed that apartment costs are set to rise far beyond the mortgage-borrowing ability of many prospective new homeowners

New-build apartments are expected to make up the majority of the market within two years, according to real estate agents sources, which is predicted to drive up the cost of apartments.

The information on new-build apartment prices was gathered from documentation that was supplied by developers to An Bord Pleanála.

Based on the findings, typical first-time buyers will not be able to afford new-build two-bed apartments in Dublin. Nearly half of first-time buyers could also struggle to afford new-build one-bed apartments in the city.

In central Dublin, first-time buyers will probably need to earn a total household salary of €117,000 to afford a new-build two-bed apartment. A two-bed in Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown will likely requiring a salary of €110,000.

Based on data published by the Central Statistics Office, only 14 per cent of Irish households earn in excess of €100,000.

Lorcan Sirr, a senior lecturer in housing at Technological University Dublin, said contradictory housing policy has facilitated the surge in apartment prices.

“Government policy is trying to encourage densification and confusing that with having to build apartments. On the other hand, policy has made them so expensive and lowered the quality, so no one wants to live in them. What we're doing is doubling down and forcing people out to commuter counties where they can buy an affordable house.

https://www.businesspost.ie/houses/many-first-time-buyers-will-be-frozen-out-of-purchasing-new-apartments-dfea5e76?auth=login

MacronvFrugals

Eric Cartman wrote: »

Theres still a few countries left without insane tax laws.

Poland will be my destination if SF ever get power. Taxation is still high but more reasonable than here.

I hope you're not gay or a women...

Villa05

MacronvFrugals wrote:

A Business Post analysis has revealed that apartment costs are set to rise far beyond the mortgage-borrowing ability of many prospective new homeowners

In figures supplied by developers. Quell surprise

Eric Cartman

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

I hope you're not gay or a women...

What have they got against women ? Tbh id take any amount of social conservatism if I was given more economic freedom, as long as taxes are low, I can build a big one off house and alcohol and petrol are cheaper than here then im gold.

MacronvFrugals

Eric Cartman wrote: »

What have they got against women ? Tbh id take any amount of social conservatism if I was given more economic freedom, as long as taxes are low, I can build a big one off house and alcohol and petrol are cheaper than here then im gold.

That's quite a statement considering you're probably a white hetero male

MacronvFrugals

Fianna Fail on 14.7%, the shared equity scheme looks to be a desperate attempt to turn the housing brief into a vote winner, those who want a continual rise in property prices will eventually shoot themselves and everyone else in the foot!


Sinn Féin leads in new poll despite slippage

Sinn Féin remains the most popular party in the country despite slipping somewhat in the latest opinion poll.

The Irish Mail On Sunday/Ireland Thinks poll published today also shows that Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald is the most popular leader in the country.

The poll shows that Ms McDonald is now more highly-rated than Tánaiste Leo Varadkar, though both have seen their rating out of 10 drop.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/politics/arid-40226633.html

combat14

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Many first-time buyers will be frozen out of purchasing new apartments

A Business Post analysis has revealed that apartment costs are set to rise far beyond the mortgage-borrowing ability of many prospective new homeowners










https://www.businesspost.ie/houses/many-first-time-buyers-will-be-frozen-out-of-purchasing-new-apartments-dfea5e76?auth=login

so who will pay for over priced apartments then the FF government or REITs ..

Eric Cartman

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

That's quite a statement considering you're probably a white hetero male

Fair enough but everyone is allowed their priorities in choosing what country they live in. My priority is not being economically oppressed by taxation and the cost of living, others may prioritise the treatment of minority groups, my ability to live comfortably somewhere except Ireland is not a reflection on my support of that countries views on other groups.

When choosing a country to move to, the treatment of demographics I do not belong to wouldn't even enter my mind.

Eric Cartman

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Fianna Fail on 14.7%, the shared equity scheme looks to be a desperate attempt to turn the housing brief into a vote winner, those who want a continual rise in property prices will eventually shoot themselves and everyone else in the foot!


Sinn Féin leads in new poll despite slippage





https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/politics/arid-40226633.html

FF have really been struggling with the housing brief, they want to keep promising like SF do but then given half a chance and ofcourse not delivered.

decreds

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

That's quite a statement considering you're probably a white hetero male

He's probably best off there the way things are going. The most amount of racism in the west is actually against white hetero males, if you highlight this you're labelled racist, of course.

cnocbui

enricoh wrote: »

I take it your not a tradesperson or builder! They took plenty of cuts from 2008-2014/5. You have to make hay while it shines in building.

I was being sarcastic.

Fuzzy_Dunlop

decreds wrote: »

He's probably best off there the way things are going. The most amount of racism in the west is actually against white hetero males, if you highlight this you're labelled racist, of course.

This obviously isn't the thread for it but what a load of nonsense

combat14

sounds like the country has almost run out of the 5.5 billion covid fund as 150,000 hospitality workers remain out of work for many months with no end in sight

wonder where all the new PUP support money etc will come from

https://m.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/wed-have-to-have-critical-mass-vaccinated-pubs-hotels-and-restaurants-set-to-stay-shut-for-several-more-months-40091562.html

Mic 1972

They'll print more money

fliball123

decreds wrote: »

Projected population growth is severely over estimated (at least for this decade) for multiple reasons:


* We won't have mass immigration for years
* Less people are dating/meeting new people
* People are fearful, fearful people tend to put off reproducing
* There is going to be a historical amount of divorces/separations incoming

Point1 So have you a crystal ball for immigrations?
Point2 Dating is now all done online?
Point3 You mean a bucking of the trend of Irish people for over the last 100 years. We are one of the most fertile counties in the world. Also there is no other country that gives an unmarried mum the handouts we do. Literally last week a niece of mine who works earning 40k , has 3 kids from 2 different dads so she gets money under the table from both and is not included as part of looking after the kids and she got an apartment brand new fully funished all new furniture and she pays 25 Euro a week from the council. What is there to be afraid of ??
Point4 Surely a divorce or separation would result in 2 properties being needed instead of 1 so it would mean we need more properties.

BTownB

Any idea when viewing restrictions will lift?

They weren't in place for the last Level 5 in November so 5th March might be realistic.

HansKroenke

Mic 1972 wrote: »

They'll print more money

This is where people with common sense and rationale opinions get torn down; there is a magic money printer spitting out billions with a few buttons to press. Rationale arguments to do with the economy are not necessary when there is unlimited, free money being created. The covid fund running out, talk of tax increases etc are not issues since we will just create money to not have to worry about these things.

Villa05

I remember when I was younger that when the census came around there was division in our family household on filling it in. I could not understand it at the time as I had bought into the arguments for completing it honestly.

As you grow older you begin to see why people are against it.
It's clearly not used for future infrastructure and planning needs

You can see clearly how people are frothing at the mouth at how they can exploit demographics, planning for these demographic changes seems very low down the list of priorities, if at all

The_Conductor

HansKroenke wrote: »

This is where people with common sense and rationale opinions get torn down; there is a magic money printer spitting out billions with a few buttons to press. Rationale arguments to do with the economy are not necessary when there is unlimited, free money being created. The covid fund running out, talk of tax increases etc are not issues since we will just create money to not have to worry about these things.

My head hurts when I read comments like this.
We cannot simply print unlimited sums of money- the implications of doing so are wretched, and we are already in trouble with the amount of liquidity that has been introduced into global financial systems (look at all the asset price bubbles out there already).

Contrary to the belief of some people- there simply is not a magic money tree, and regardless of how liquidity has been introduced into the system, there will be a day of reckoning, like it or lump it.

Ireland is coasting at the moment, because of ultra low interest rates- however, in 2020 we still paid 5.85 billion in interest on our sovereign debt. This is a large chunk of change, and even with low interest rates, it is growing.

Ireland has historically never defaulted on its sovereign debts- which is why our rating is so high in comparison to many other EU countries. Whatever happens, the Irish political system will not stomach talking about a default in the future.

Magic money trees- are wishful thinking, and are not going to pass.

Btw- we have already signed up to balance our budget again by 2025- and Covid may still be knocking around even at that stage..........

Magic money trees- are akin to magical dragons, unicorns, elves and Santa Claus. They may give us a warm fuzzy feeling- but they don't exist other than in our imaginations.

Villa05

fliball123 wrote:

Point1 So have you a crystal ball for immigrations? Point2 Dating is now all done online? Point3 You mean a bucking of the trend of Irish people for over the last 100 years. We are one of the most fertile counties in the world. Also there is no other country that gives an unmarried mum the handouts we do. Literally last week a niece of mine who works earning 40k , has 3 kids from 2 different dads and she got an apartment brand new fully funished all new furniture and she pays 25 Euro a week. What is there to be afraid of ?? Point4 Surely a divorce or separation would result in 2 properties being needed instead of 1 so it would mean we need more properties.

The arguments get more and more surreal

Get a mortgage, don't worry if you can't pay it, you'll still keep the house, someone else can pay

It takes 2 to make a child, let's stop focussing on 1 side of the equation

Affordability apparently is based on 2 income earners on average salary of apparently 49k, however household incomes of greater than 98k represent the top 10% of households

If that couple split up, what harm for property then they'll need 2

Our property bubble is built on solid foundations

CorkRed93

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/retail-fashion-falls-into-a-sinkhole-on-the-irish-high-street-vtst8f3ww

"Department store Debenhams, which closed last year, has left nearly one million sq ft of empty retail space across Ireland, according to Neil Bannon of commercial property consultancy Bannon. All told, it is possible that the equivalent square footage of Dundrum Town Centre will have been vacated by the fashion retail crash. According to the Irish accounts of exiting retailers, the loss in landlord rent is at least €40 million."

What happens with all of this? Do people see these spaces being converted or what? The numbers are craxy

The_Conductor

CorkRed93 wrote: »

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/retail-fashion-falls-into-a-sinkhole-on-the-irish-high-street-vtst8f3ww

"Department store Debenhams, which closed last year, has left nearly one million sq ft of empty retail space across Ireland, according to Neil Bannon of commercial property consultancy Bannon. All told, it is possible that the equivalent square footage of Dundrum Town Centre will have been vacated by the fashion retail crash. According to the Irish accounts of exiting retailers, the loss in landlord rent is at least €40 million."

What happens with all of this? Do people see these spaces being converted or what? The numbers are craxy

It would take some doing- however, why not convert them to apartments? It would be one hell of a way to deliver volumes of apartments in central locations......... Not sure about the rent roll- but the writing is on the wall.

Zenify

Just came across this:

http://www.financedublin.com/debtclock.php

Watch the money tree go. If it doesn't scare you something is wrong.

fliball123

Villa05 wrote: »

The arguments get more and more surreal

Get a mortgage, don't worry if you can't pay it, you'll still keep the house, someone else can pay

It takes 2 to make a child, let's stop focussing on 1 side of the equation

Affordability apparently is based on 2 income earners on average salary of apparently 49k, however household incomes of greater than 98k represent the top 10% of households

If that couple split up, what harm for property then they'll need 2

Our property bubble is built on solid foundations

It does take 2 to make a child but the onus is not on daddy to provide support for his offspring they can just ignore it. Affordability I have caculated that even at the median income almost half the properties available on myhome are affordable on 3.5 salary( in other countries this is higher) and a 10% deposit. So there is affordability just some people want to live in areas that are in demand and guess what that means you have to pay more just like every other country on the planet.

I was countering the posters points that would mean the projected figures of new housing needed are not correct that we would need less point 4 in their post was talking about people breaking up in that scenario 2 properties are needed instead of one. Just highlighting a flaw in their logic.

Have you any evidence that we currently have a property bubble?