2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

Cyrus · 12-02-2021 03:41PM

SmokyMo wrote: »

I am not sure about your anecdotal evidence of office workers unless they are cheap labour migrants but 97.9% home ownership among its population.

Original question was which country doesnt treat house assets as a speculative assets, I suggested Singapore.

they are singaporean nationals and educated, perhaps they earn too much to avail of the state schemes because outside of that, as you will concede, property is very expensive. Now that i think of it a lot of the people im thinking of are single, and from a brief look at wiki it appears that the housing is for family units so maybe that explains it.

So someone in singapore is treating housing as speculative assets but as a nation they dont.

Villa05 · 12-02-2021 03:51PM

Hubertj wrote:

Listened to David McWilliams and some interesting perspectives in it alright. Good for people to listen to.

Glad you got some value from it

Just out of interest, I know I'm not a skilled communicator, but what would you see as different from his main points and the points I raise here

I've reffered to the property as a bit of an elaborate pyramid scheme, he uses the greater fool theory same principle

I say Government are a major part of the problem. He states every measure introduced by the Government has been inflationary and developer focused

And of course the solution pretty much identical.

Can you tell me the difference between interesting and conspiracy theroy

Cyrus · 12-02-2021 03:58PM

Villa05 wrote: »

Glad you got some value from it

Just out of interest, I know I'm not a skilled communicator, but what would you see as different from his main points and the points I raise here

I've reffered to the property as a bit of an elaborate pyramid scheme, he uses the greater fool theory same principle

I say Government are a major part of the problem. He states every measure introduced by the Government has been inflationary and developer focused

And of course the solution pretty much identical.

Can you tell me the difference between interesting and conspiracy theroy

as i said McWilliams lives in a 7 figure house on the southside, you need to take that into perspective when listen to him.

not that i have any issue with that at all, but what he peddles and what he lives are two different things .

hometruths · 12-02-2021 04:00PM

Cyrus wrote: »

as i said McWilliams lives in a 7 figure house on the southside, you need to take that into perspective when listen to him.

not that i have any issue with that at all, but what he peddles and what he lives are two different things .

Have you listened to the podcast?

Cyrus · 12-02-2021 04:13PM

schmittel wrote: »

Have you listened to the podcast?

not that particular one, ive read most of his books and read a lot of his articles, have met him more than once aswell.

timmyntc · 12-02-2021 04:18PM

Cyrus wrote: »

as i said McWilliams lives in a 7 figure house on the southside, you need to take that into perspective when listen to him.

not that i have any issue with that at all, but what he peddles and what he lives are two different things .

If someone has nothing and speaks out - they are jealous or begrudging
If someone has wealth and speaks out - they are a liar or cant be trusted because of their wealth

Genuine question - what would a person have to do for you to take them seriously?

hometruths · 12-02-2021 04:19PM

Cyrus wrote: »

not that particular one, ive read most of his books and read a lot of his articles, have met him more than once aswell.

If you had listened to that podcast you might have a better understanding why "McWilliams lives in a 7 figure house on the southside, you need to take that into perspective when listen to him" is a vacuous comment.

hometruths · 12-02-2021 04:20PM

timmyntc wrote: »

If someone has nothing and speaks out - they are jealous or begrudging
If someone has wealth and speaks out - they are a liar or cant be trusted because of their wealth

Genuine question - what would a person have to do for you to take them seriously?

Agree with him.

Cyrus · 12-02-2021 04:26PM

timmyntc wrote: »

If someone has nothing and speaks out - they are jealous or begrudging
If someone has wealth and speaks out - they are a liar or cant be trusted because of their wealth

Genuine question - what would a person have to do for you to take them seriously?

who did i brand jealour or a liar?

Cyrus · 12-02-2021 04:28PM

schmittel wrote: »

If you had listened to that podcast you might have a better understanding why "McWilliams lives in a 7 figure house on the southside, you need to take that into perspective when listen to him" is a vacuous comment.

ill get to it at some stage, but i dont agree that its a vacuous comment, one should always have the background information.

Cyrus · 12-02-2021 04:29PM

schmittel wrote: »

Agree with him.

yes because the world is ending gang have a habit of posting all sorts of articles that contradict what they are peddling. :rolleyes:

timmyntc · 12-02-2021 04:32PM

Cyrus wrote: »

who did i brand jealour or a liar?

It's not your words, but a generic statement that sums up that train of thought.

McWilliams arguments are not to be fully trusted because of his own personal wealth.

His personal circumstances should have nothing to do with it - if you dont agree with what he says then kindly explain to the rest of us why you dont agree. A vague reference to McWilliams' wealth is a pathetic attempt to discredit a good argument.

Cyrus · 12-02-2021 04:37PM

timmyntc wrote: »

It's not your words, but a generic statement that sums up that train of thought.

McWilliams arguments are not to be fully trusted because of his own personal wealth.

His personal circumstances should have nothing to do with it - if you dont agree with what he says then kindly explain to the rest of us why you dont agree. A vague reference to McWilliams' wealth is a pathetic attempt to discredit a good argument.

you think someones personal circumstances are irrelevant when taking their opinions into account? fair enough, i would tend to disagree.

as i have said i have yet to listen to the podcast, so havent tried to discredit anything, i was just providing some context.

for example if he is espousing the greater fool theory as part of his thesis its interesting that he himself has bought a house in the past 3-4 years at the 1m + end of the market.

timmyntc · 12-02-2021 04:44PM

Cyrus wrote: »

you think someones personal circumstances are irrelevant when taking their opinions into account? fair enough, i would tend to disagree.

as i have said i have yet to listen to the podcast, so havent tried to discredit anything, i was just providing some context.

for example if he is espousing the greater fool theory as part of his thesis its interesting that he himself has bought a house in the past 3-4 years at the 1m + end of the market.

Nobody should blindly accept what he says simply because *he* says it - arguments should be taken on their merits alone. In that case, who he is, is irrelevant.

MacronvFrugals · 12-02-2021 04:54PM

timmyntc wrote: »

If someone has nothing and speaks out - they are jealous or begrudging
If someone has wealth and speaks out - they are a liar or cant be trusted because of their wealth

Genuine question - what would a person have to do for you to take them seriously?

Exactly my thinking!

LillySV · 12-02-2021 05:00PM

Cyrus wrote: »

you think someones personal circumstances are irrelevant when taking their opinions into account? fair enough, i would tend to disagree.

as i have said i have yet to listen to the podcast, so havent tried to discredit anything, i was just providing some context.

for example if he is espousing the greater fool theory as part of his thesis its interesting that he himself has bought a house in the past 3-4 years at the 1m + end of the market.

Ok I’m only starting this thread now so don’t know the jest of it yet, but I will say that McWilliams was bang on predicting the last house crisis when others said he was talking nonsense

In regard to him buying that house... he’s wealthy and might be one of those rare houses/areas that rarely come to market so regardless of cost, if he wanted it he had to go for it

Which is same for anyone ... if u find ideal dream house now and can afford it, go for it ...

Hubertj · 12-02-2021 05:15PM

schmittel wrote: »

Cracking spot. Airbnbs and holiday homes have their place for sure - it's just not in D2.

Spent the last 2 summer holidays in that general area. Really like it. Might consider a holiday home in that part of Kerry but slightly concerned about accessibility for weekends. It’s a long way to go vs Wexford etc.

Cyrus · 12-02-2021 05:15PM

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Exactly my thinking!

good to know

cnocbui · 12-02-2021 05:20PM

Hubertj wrote: »

Spent the last 2 summer holidays in that general area. Really like it. Might consider a holiday home in that part of Kerry but slightly concerned about accessibility for weekends. It’s a long way to go vs Wexford etc.

Can I interest you in a slightly used house in Connemara? Some rennovation required.

Hubertj · 12-02-2021 05:22PM

cnocbui wrote: »

Can I interest you in a slightly used house in Connemara? Some rennovation required.

Thanks but spent a lot of time in Connemara as a kid. Kerry is the only place I’ll consider now!

Cyrus · 12-02-2021 05:35PM

im listening to this pod cast, figure thats fair for a 4 bedroom house is 270k. There are plenty of 4 bedrooms houses available in ireland for that kind of money.

so the question is to those of you that are so taken with this podcast, do you believe that houses everywhere in ireland should be the same price?

hometruths · 12-02-2021 05:39PM

Cyrus wrote: »

im listening to this pod cast, figure thats fair for a 4 bedroom house is 270k. There are plenty of 4 bedrooms houses available in ireland for that kind of money.

so the question is to those of you that are so taken with this podcast, do you believe that houses everywhere in ireland should be the same price?

There’s that Dunning Kruger effect in action again.

Cyrus · 12-02-2021 05:48PM

schmittel wrote: »

There’s that Dunning Kruger effect in action again.

just asking the question no need for the insults, you arent better than that but you can try. some of your pals will probably like that for you again.

for anyone not as clever as schmittel the dunning kruger her refers to is:

Essentially, low ability people do not possess the skills needed to recognize their own incompetence

which is quite the insult, but ill get over it.

ill ask again, do you believe the state should be providing 4 bedroom family homes in ballsbridge for 270k or less in these communes or collectives?

cnocbui · 12-02-2021 05:55PM

Hubertj wrote: »

Thanks but spent a lot of time in Connemara as a kid. Kerry is the only place I’ll consider now!

Are you sure? I'll throw in a couple of lakes for free.

fliball123 · 12-02-2021 06:03PM

Cyrus wrote: »

just asking the question no need for the insults, you arent better than that but you can try. some of your pals will probably like that for you again.

for anyone not as clever as schmittel the dunning kruger her refers to is:

Essentially, low ability people do not possess the skills needed to recognize their own incompetence

which is quite the insult, but ill get over it.

ill ask again, do you believe the state should be providing 4 bedroom family homes in ballsbridge for 270k or less in these communes or collectives?

Of course they shouldn't, I have gone over on here desirable places will always acquire a premium as is the case all over the planet. Some on here seem to think we should all be able to afford a mansion in Dalkey with a view over looking the sea. I call that the Walter Mitty Effect

when your living in a dreamland

DataDude · 12-02-2021 06:32PM

fliball123 wrote: »

Of course they shouldn't, I have gone over on here desirable places will always acquire a premium as is the case all over the planet. Some on here seem to think we should all be able to afford a mansion in Dalkey with a view over looking the sea. I call that the Walter Mitty Effect when your living in a dreamland

Of course agree with above but I do think the primary reason younger people are disillusioned an feel house prices need to fall in price is they compare themselves to what their equivalent in the prior generation could have done. This is why McWilliams etc. views resonate with so many.

I know (and am related to) so many people in their 50s/60s who had incredibly average careers with limited educations, never earning above today's equivalent of €150k living in €2m+ houses in Dalkey. The reality is were they the exact same person, exact same career a few decades later they'd be potentially looking for social housing. It's that dramatic mismatch in the inflation of property prices vs wages that drives the undercurrent of discontent.

I'm incredibly fortunate to be in a very top percentile of earners but it drives me up the wall hearing my parents/aunts/uncles talk in a sympathetic (but really condescending) tone about cousin x who's "35 and still can't afford his/her own home" as if it's some sort of failing on their behalf. Then often use my position as proof that "it's still possible today, nothing wrong with house prices". The reality is cousin X is doing absolutely fine and their career is on a par with their parents before them, but "average earnings" don't really get you a whole lot anymore.

I might not fit the description of young locked out buyer, but I can clearly see their plight and do think you need to be a little bit blinkered to not do so.

It's scares the life out of me, but I truly think it's the mindset/denial above that's going to lead to fairly radical political reform in the not too distant future. Prices falls will come with that overhaul I'm sure, unfortunately so will after tax incomes...(as a side note to anyone disillusioned as I have described above feeling locked out, the reality is our "extreme left" parties are actually bizarrely anti-young people in many ways and will staunchly defend the "poor old person" in their €4m house in Colimore Road which they can barely heat because "The home isn't an asset (LOL)"

Cyrus · 12-02-2021 06:39PM

DataDude wrote: »

Of course agree with above but I do think the primary reason younger people are disillusioned an feel house prices need to fall in price is they compare themselves to what their equivalent in the prior generation could have done. This is why McWilliams etc. views resonate with so many.

I know (and am related to) so many people in their 50s/60s who had incredibly average careers with limited educations, never earning above today's equivalent of €150k living in €2m+ houses in Dalkey. The reality is were they the exact same person, exact same career a few decades later they'd be potentially looking for social housing. It's that dramatic mismatch in the inflation of property prices vs wages that drives the undercurrent of discontent.

I'm incredibly fortunate to be in a very top percentile of earners but it drives me up the wall hearing my parents/aunts/uncles talk in a sympathetic (but really condescending) tone about cousin x who's "35 and still can't afford his/her own home" as if it's some sort of failing on their behalf. Then often use my position as proof that "it's still possible today, nothing wrong with house prices". The reality is cousin X is doing absolutely fine and their career is on a par with their parents before them, but "average earnings" don't really get you a whole lot anymore.

I might not fit the description of young locked out buyer, but I can clearly see their plight and do think you need to be a little bit blinkered to not do so.

It's scares the life out of me, but I truly think it's the mindset/denial above that's going to lead to fairly radical political reform in the not too distant future. Prices falls will come with that overhaul I'm sure, unfortunately so will after tax incomes...(as a side note to anyone disillusioned as I have described above feeling locked out, the reality is our "extreme left" parties are actually bizarrely anti-young people in many ways and will staunchly defend the "poor old person" in their €4m house in Colimore Road which they can barely heat because "The home isn't an asset (LOL)"

good post and there is a lot of sense in what you are posting. its easy to normalise a high salary if you are in an industry where others are earning the same so good on you for retaining perspective.

i disagree with you that radical reform will come though, in the same way a teacher and a nurse could have bought a house in blackrock or dalkey 30 years ago, young couples today can too (maybe one an accountant and another in tech) and as long as that persists so will prices. Its not a story common to Dublin either, other european capitals have the same issue.

HansKroenke · 12-02-2021 06:43PM

DataDude wrote: »

Of course agree with above but I do think the primary reason younger people are disillusioned an feel house prices need to fall in price is they compare themselves to what their equivalent in the prior generation could have done. This is why McWilliams etc. views resonate with so many.

I know (and am related to) so many people in their 50s/60s who had incredibly average careers with limited educations, never earning above today's equivalent of €150k living in €2m+ houses in Dalkey. The reality is were they the exact same person, exact same career a few decades later they'd be potentially looking for social housing. It's that dramatic mismatch in the inflation of property prices vs wages that drives the undercurrent of discontent.

I'm incredibly fortunate to be in a very top percentile of earners but it drives me up the wall hearing my parents/aunts/uncles talk in a sympathetic (but really condescending) tone about cousin x who's "35 and still can't afford his/her own home" as if it's some sort of failing on their behalf. Then often use my position as proof that "it's still possible today, nothing wrong with house prices". The reality is cousin X is doing absolutely fine and their career is on a par with their parents before them, but "average earnings" don't really get you a whole lot anymore.

I might not fit the description of young locked out buyer, but I can clearly see their plight and do think you need to be a little bit blinkered to not do so.

It's scares the life out of me, but I truly think it's the mindset/denial above that's going to lead to fairly radical political reform in the not too distant future. Prices falls will come with that overhaul I'm sure, unfortunately so will after tax incomes...(as a side note to anyone disillusioned as I have described above feeling locked out, the reality is our "extreme left" parties are actually bizarrely anti-young people in many ways and will staunchly defend the "poor old person" in their €4m house in Colimore Road which they can barely heat because "The home isn't an asset (LOL)"

The big question will be how those €1m+ houses shift in the next 5/10/15 years when those under the age of 40, barely able to get a place worth 600k, are looking to upgrade and the houses of those in their 50s/60s now are sold. Even with the equity of their FTB property, they will not be able to get a mortgage for these houses. For me, the longer term trend is a fairly significant reduction in house prices at the premium price range, purely due to affordability and the obliteration of the number of homeowners among the next generation, lost to the Great Recession, that would typically upgrade to these types of houses.

Cyrus · 12-02-2021 06:58PM

HansKroenke wrote: »

The big question will be how those €1m+ houses shift in the next 5/10/15 years when those under the age of 40, barely able to get a place worth 600k, are looking to upgrade and the houses of those in their 50s/60s now are sold. Even with the equity of their FTB property, they will not be able to get a mortgage for these houses. For me, the longer term trend is a fairly significant reduction in house prices at the premium price range, purely due to affordability and the obliteration of the number of homeowners among the next generation, lost to the Great Recession, that would typically upgrade to these types of houses.

In the way there are people now who can buy houses at those prices there will be people in 10-15 years

DataDude · 12-02-2021 07:00PM

Cyrus wrote: »

good post and there is a lot of sense in what you are posting. its easy to normalise a high salary if you are in an industry where others are earning the same so good on you for retaining perspective.

i disagree with you that radical reform will come though, in the same way a teacher and a nurse could have bought a house in blackrock or dalkey 30 years ago, young couples today can too (maybe one an accountant and another in tech) and as long as that persists so will prices. Its not a story common to Dublin either, other european capitals have the same issue.

Maybe you’re correct (I hope you are on the political bit!) but when I look at what two 35 year old teachers with kids working in a school in South Dublin can afford to purchase, it makes me a little uneasy. Agreed it is an issue around Europe, but it doesn’t make it desirable and it certainly offers scant consolation to said teachers!

2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1