Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VIII Read OP For Mod Warnings

FintanMcluskey · 11-02-2021 12:10AM

ArthurDayne wrote: »

Nicely set out — and while I agree with this — I think it’s important to tease out the nuance in Point 4 versus Point 5.

The way I see it, as long as Point 4 remains the case — as in, we leap to the flamethrower approach of lockdowns at the first sign of cases rising — then Point 5 is obsolete. There seems very little point to me in extolling the virtues of [effectively] closing the airport if, ultimately, even if it allowed us to reduce cases to such a level that the government feel comfortable to let us loose (relatively speaking), the subsequent rise in cases from the population having more relative freedom will seemingly drag us back to lockdown regardless. So we would end up back in lockdown and now even more moral / political thresholds would have been set as regards the airport, which the government will struggle to climb down from. I take the point made last night by guys like HattrickPatrick that the justification for a climbdown from this precedent would be the vaccination of the vulnerable, but I think the government will find it difficult to climb down even at that point — or will faff around the point for weeks on end and potentially months.

Put simply, your Point 4 is absolutely correct, and I feel that Point 5 can only have its proper value if and when the government musters the willpower and courage to promote the message in 4. I just can’t see it happening though — the phenomenon of people seeing friends and older relatives at Christmas has largely been ignored in favour of a mantra of (to use your words) sh*tting the bed and just closing everything, followed by Uber-caution to reopen even building sites. So I think the sh*t-the-bed-strategy is here to stay, which to me suggests that people might find themselves disappointed even if the government goes down hard on the airport.

Good point Arthur.

If there is one thing we have learned about implementing additional restrictions in Ireland is that more must be implemented immediately after

Hmob · 11-02-2021 12:13AM

Graham wrote: »

Is this a later tweet?

This is a later tweet..

https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1359599539368456194?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

"GPs are up for it" lol, all this enthusiasm has nothing to do with the bonanza payout

In fairness we need them and they're doing their bit

Penfailed · 11-02-2021 12:19AM

Why is it that the same people that want travellers into Ireland quarantined are also the ones giving off about not being allowed to fly elsewhere?

Graham · 11-02-2021 12:26AM

I think there's an element of letting off steam Penfailed, and people (understandably) can't see why they can't travel while others can.

Up until recently I'd say the cases flying in to the country were quite low. I suspect that's changing so tightening inbound travel restrictions is probably warranted.

JRant · 11-02-2021 12:29AM

gansi wrote: »

You say we’ll go back to level 5 on March 5th is this not level 5 do you mean 4? You must.

Unfortunately not. It will be Level 5 till April at the very earliest. Leo was on about moving to Level 4+1 but those of us who finished creche will understand that to mean level 5.

JRant · 11-02-2021 12:33AM

Graham wrote: »

I think there's an element of letting off steam Penfailed, and people (understandably) can't see why they can't travel while others can.

Up until recently I'd say the cases flying in to the country were quite low. I suspect that's changing so tightening inbound travel restrictions is probably warranted.

Agree completely, it's pent up frustration. Once we get to level 3 and lower then the majority of people won't really care about who's coming or going at our airports, just like last summer.

I also think people have a pain in their hoop being castigated for Christmas when the government allowed north of 100,000 people in from the UK, where COVID was absolutely rampant at the time. Now, they may be completely wrong for thinking this but my word the optics were terrible.

JRant · 11-02-2021 12:38AM

Graham wrote: »

Some key points from the IT article

On the close contact positivity rate, how could he possibly know that?
We've only been testing close contacts this past week since Christmas. Something doesn't add up for me with that one.

JRant · 11-02-2021 12:41AM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Same one?

Over 70s vaccinated by mid June

Fergal wasn't long getting back on script.

Graham · 11-02-2021 12:42AM

JRant wrote: »

I also think people have a pain in their hoop being castigated for Christmas when the government allowed north of 100,000 people in from the UK, where COVID was absolutely rampant at the time. Now, they may be completely wrong for thinking this but my word the optics were terrible.

No doubt an element of frustration there too.

In all reality, Christmas did us no favours with lots of people understandable trying to make up for lost months catching up with friends/family/shopping/socialising. 100,000 of our own returning for Christmas included in that.

Given the choice and a time machine to November '20, I wonder how many would opt for an alternative Christmas '20?

Graham · 11-02-2021 12:44AM

JRant wrote: »

On the close contact positivity rate, how could he possibly know that?
We've only been testing close contacts this past week since Christmas. Something doesn't add up for me with that one.

If the positivity rate has doubled, I'd say that jumps out fairly quickly in the reports.

JRant · 11-02-2021 12:48AM

Graham wrote: »

If the positivity rate has doubled, I'd say that jumps out fairly quickly in the reports.

We can't possibly know that from one weeks worth of data though. MM reminds me of Ron Burgundy, he'll repeat any aul ****e put in front of him without giving it a second thought.

RobitTV · 11-02-2021 12:48AM

I have found the two men who are going to rescue Ireland.

Spanish Eyes · 11-02-2021 12:49AM

Back in our caves for the foreseeable. No one knows really what will happen.

Vaccine rollout is appalling via EU, but not surprising either. And will the vaccines work? I am sure they will, against all variants/mutations emerging immediately too I suppose.

normanoffside · 11-02-2021 12:50AM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Same one?

Over 70s vaccinated by mid June

That’s a joke. My mum who is barely 70 was vaccinated up north today. She’s the last of the over 70s to get a first jab, all of which age group will be vaccinated this week at the latest.

JRant · 11-02-2021 12:52AM

Graham wrote: »

No doubt an element of frustration there too.

In all reality, Christmas did us no favours with lots of people understandable trying to make up for lost months catching up with friends/family/shopping/socialising. 100,000 of our own returning for Christmas included in that.

Given the choice and a time machine to November '20, I wonder how many would opt for an alternative Christmas '20?

Go back further to October. It was a huge mistake to lockdown the country so close to Christmas. All it did was congest more people into restaurants, shops, etc is a much shorter time period. Even before that lockdown was lifted they were talking about locking down again straight after Christmas. Psychologically that was a huge error by the government. What exactly did they think was going to happen.

Graham · 11-02-2021 12:52AM

JRant wrote: »

We can't possibly know that from one weeks worth of data though. MM reminds me of Ron Burgundy, he'll repeat any aul ****e put in front of him without giving it a second thought.

No doubt it would be early to call it. At the same time if you've been seeing 20% for the last year and you're now seeing 40% every day, it would be hard to ignore.

(I don't know what the actual percentages are)

Spanish Eyes · 11-02-2021 12:54AM

I am very disappointed with the EU procurement of vaccines. There I said it again. There is no excuse.

latency89 · 11-02-2021 12:54AM

Graham wrote: »

No doubt it would be early to call it. At the same time if you've been seeing 20% for the last year and you're now seeing 40% every day, it would be hard to ignore.

(I don't know what the actual percentages are)

What are you thinking?

Its more contagious or people are meeting up too much?

11-02-2021 12:55AM

DylanJM wrote: »

We are beyond level 5 currently. Level 5 allows schools and construction.

No schools were closed in March and construction too , level five.

Arghus · 11-02-2021 12:58AM

Graham wrote: »

No doubt it would be early to call it. At the same time if you've been seeing 20% for the last year and you're now seeing 40% every day, it would be hard to ignore.

(I don't know what the actual percentages are)

22.5% compared to 10-11% with the original virus, according to the article.

As I understand it, when they were testing close contacts previously, about 10-11% were returning positive tests, but after a week or so of testing close contacts again the rate of positive tests is 22.5%. It's only a week, but that's still thousands of tests and a relative difference like that would stand out immediately.

gmisk · 11-02-2021 12:59AM

RobitTV wrote: »

I have found the two men who are going to rescue Ireland.

If you are relying on those two tits you are already doomed.

Loafing Oaf · 11-02-2021 12:59AM

gansi wrote: »

No schools were closed in March and construction too , level five.

Levels were only unveiled in September I believe

gmisk · 11-02-2021 01:00AM

normanoffside wrote: »

That’s a joke. My mum who is barely 70 was vaccinated up north today. She’s the last of the over 70s to get a first jab, all of which age group will be vaccinated this week at the latest.

My folks are up north both in 60s and offered jabs a few weeks back as well.

They couldn't get them as they have been in lanzarote since last year...doubt they will be back anytime soon.

latency89 · 11-02-2021 01:02AM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I am very disappointed with the EU procurement of vaccines. There I said it again. There is no excuse.

It was always gonna fail

AZ have been full of **** since the start, might as well have injected holy water if you come across a e484k variant like SA.

Pfizer was a compliance vaccine, its -70c storage etc was never meant for mass vaccination, they made no secret of that

Moderna are small time, a start up company

Rest are still doing up paperwork

No one trusts the Russians or Chinese

11-02-2021 01:03AM

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Levels were only unveiled in September I believe

Okay you may be right have been digging around to find my road map for reopening, family had it posted up in kitchen like a calendar. So when lockdown happened last March then there were no levels given?

normanoffside · 11-02-2021 01:07AM

gmisk wrote: »

My folks are up north both in 60s and offered jabs a few weeks back as well.

They couldn't get them as they have been in lanzarote since last year...doubt they will be back anytime soon.

All of my uncles/aunts in their mid 60s have had their jabs too, also my sister and BIL who are dentists and in their 30s.
Can’t wait to head up north and fly out of Belfast this summer.
They are already 5 months ahead and the gap will only widen.

Forget the all island approach because the Republic is so far behind it will never catch up. They’ll be getting booster jabs against variants before we’ve finished vaccinating people against the wuhan strain.

Graham · 11-02-2021 01:07AM

RobitTV wrote: »

I have found the two men who are going to rescue Ireland.

I thought that was a persuader campaign for social distancing.

RobitTV · 11-02-2021 01:08AM

Graham wrote: »

I thought that was a persuader campaign for social distancing.

:pac::pac::pac::pac:

Kunta Kinte · 11-02-2021 01:08AM

Happydays2020 wrote: »

Construction early March. Schools maybe a few weeks later. Click and collect around the same time. Non essential retail end March. Outdoor dining after Easter. Indoor dining after the over 65’s are all vaccinated (hopefully mid May). Pubs (Gastro and dry) will have to wait a while yet. Concerts and nightclubs by December.

I agree with most of your timelines in this post except for what I bolded. IMO there will be no concerts or mass gatherings or open nightclubs in this country until sometime in 2022.

Gael23 · 11-02-2021 01:09AM

What happened to over 70s being done by the end of March?

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VIII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VIII Read OP For Mod Warnings