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Cold Spell - Feb 7th to 13th 2021 - Technical Discussion

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    #572
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,142 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Humberto Salazar wrote: »
    I don't know if there is a snow shadow in Offaly but I'm sure it'll work tomorrow.

    It keeps away the rain so it will definitely keep away the snow! :(


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    #573
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,564 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Davaeo09 wrote: »
    Slightly annoyed at myself for getting carried away with my beliefs the Inland South East would do better tomorrow. But no, it looks like those that already had some, get more (Thursday night) and once again I am left cursing my luck in Kilkenny.

    Kilkenny looks good for snow to me. At least 3 - 5 cm possible.


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    #574
    colmwexford
    Registered Users Posts: 12 ✭colmwexford


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    Kilkenny looks good for snow to me. At least 3 - 5 cm possible.

    Could inland Wexford get something similar?


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    #575
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,382 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    If snow does turn out to be relatively light then freezing rain could show up in a few parts of the inland south and southeast, also some distance inland in Galway. That is of course the worst of winter hazards for driving, so I hope it isn't going to materialize.

    Can see the odds are something like this on the snow --

    heavier outcomes (5-10 cm local 15) about 20% chance

    general 2-5 cm in snow zones, local 10 has about 50% chance

    general trace to 2 cm with local 5 has about 20% chance

    almost complete non-event has about 10% chance

    _ but those odds could change before the event starts. Not all indicators are negative which is why one or two models have a bit more snow than others.

    Which forum regular will report the most snow at their home location? I think the leading candidates might be robertkk, mountainyman, lolie in cavan, and whoever lives on the east side of the Wicklow mountains. Danno in with a shout if the snow is a bit heavier than some expect (heavier it turns out, the better lowland areas will be doing). This speculation applies to round one only, round two could go to Tyrone posters -- I don't know if we have any regular posters in Monaghan.


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    #576
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    If snow does turn out to be relatively light then freezing rain could show up in a few parts of the inland south and southeast, also some distance inland in Galway. That is of course the worst of winter hazards for driving, so I hope it isn't going to materialize.

    Can see the odds are something like this on the snow --

    heavier outcomes (5-10 cm local 15) about 20% chance

    general 2-5 cm in snow zones, local 10 has about 50% chance

    general trace to 2 cm with local 5 has about 20% chance

    almost complete non-event has about 10% chance

    _ but those odds could change before the event starts. Not all indicators are negative which is why one or two models have a bit more snow than others.

    Which forum regular will report the most snow at their home location? I think the leading candidates might be robertkk, mountainyman, lolie in cavan, and whoever lives on the east side of the Wicklow mountains. Danno in with a shout if the snow is a bit heavier than some expect (heavier it turns out, the better lowland areas will be doing). This speculation applies to round one only, round two could go to Tyrone posters -- I don't know if we have any regular posters in Monaghan.

    AUNTY lives on the east side of the wicklow mtns :D
    Place called Arklow


    (Dp's sub minus 6c today with a strong wind off the Sea here,..doesn't happen often)


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    #577
    Snowbie
    Registered Users Posts: 5,033 ✭✭✭Snowbie


    Weather forecast done for tomorrow if anyone is interested. I reckon this has upgraded over previous runs. South midlands at risk of highest totals. Fridays event into Saturday morning, Ulster and N Leinster most at risk for now.

    https://youtu.be/-FO7MRsCxpE


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    #578
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,910 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    I don't think there is any chance of freezing rain MT.
    We havent seen a decent frost in over a week as it's been dull and cloudy. The ground is actually milder than average.

    I see Met Eireann have kept the warnings at yellow!!
    Will it prove to be case


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    #579
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,755 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Not expecting much myself here in south Meath, all models are showing between nothing and trace amounts of snow for this area by tomorrow night.

    iconeu_uk1-1-28-0.png?10-19

    Hirlam and Arpege fails to get any precipitation in this part of Meath and indeed Dublin before Friday.

    GFS shows trace amount getting here before tomorrow night.

    For Friday/Saturday
    Icon is showing a narrow channel of a snow hollow between north Dublin, crossing over south-east Meath and down into Offaly.

    iconeu_uk1-1-66-0.png?10-16

    Based on the Icon i'll be lucky to see more than 1 or 2cm by Saturday morning.

    GFS is similar, a snow hollow over south Meath and north Kildare, barely anything on current output. less than 1cm.

    69-574UK.GIF?10-12

    Arpege is a bit better for Saturday morning, but still a snow hollow, maybe 1 to 3cm.

    arpegeuk-1-69-0.png?10-17

    WRF same story, very little other than misty snizzle for this area on Friday night into Saturday morning.

    nmmuk-42-66-0.png?10-17

    I wouldn't be surprised if this gets downgraded more tomorrow as this is continuing to get downgraded on each run.


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    #580
    barney 20v
    Registered Users Posts: 980 ✭✭✭barney 20v


    AuntySnow wrote: »
    AUNTY lives on the east side of the wicklow mtns :D
    Place called Arklow


    (Dp's sub minus 6c today with a strong wind off the Sea here,..doesn't happen often)

    I reckon we're in with a decent shout here on the Blackstairs Mountain.
    35 km inland, 3.5 km from the mountain itself and at 150 m asl.

    We're one of the best places on the east coast historically for snow events (after the wicklow mountains)

    Dispite all the variences in models and even shorterm forecasts we've stayed consistently at risk from this front moving in tomorrow.

    My 12 year old has her toboggan ready to go!


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    #581
    Cw85
    Registered Users Posts: 238 ✭✭Cw85


    Dewpoint of -6 at my station in Carlow Town. Definitely the coldest night so far. Should get some decent snow in this part of the country tomorrow


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    #582
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,910 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Anyone have the current dew points?


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    #583
    DellyBelly
    Registered Users Posts: 2,912 ✭✭✭DellyBelly


    colmwexford wrote: »
    Could inland Wexford get something similar?
    Maybe but I think you might be fortunate and miss out on anything too bad.


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    #584
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 3,801 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    DellyBelly wrote: »
    Maybe but I think you might be fortunate and miss out on anything too bad.

    It’s the cold rain guy! Huzzah.


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    #585
    Tyrone212
    Registered Users Posts: 1,570 ✭✭✭Tyrone212


    JanuarySnowstor wrote: »
    Anyone have the current dew points?

    https://meteologix.com/ie/observations/ireland/dewpoint/20210210-2100z.html


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    #586
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    JanuarySnowstor wrote: »
    Anyone have the current dew points?

    My station right now in Arklow


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    #587
    Snowbie
    Registered Users Posts: 5,033 ✭✭✭Snowbie


    JanuarySnowstor wrote: »
    Anyone have the current dew points?
    -3.4C Dp


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    #588
    SleetAndSnow
    Registered Users Posts: 4,678 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    Anything currently falling in Cork City is currently very wet and sleety. Are we already in a warmer airmass? Not boding well for tomorrow at all


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    #589
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Cork's TAF has just been amended at 9 pm to account for the snow falling there now. Forecast to fall up to midnight. Still no difference to tomorrow's precipitation; light rain from 7 am, with some periods of sleet mixed in from 10 am.

    TAF AMD EICK 102100Z 1021/1118 09015KT 9999 FEW020 BKN030
    TEMPO 1021/1024 4000 -SHSN BKN012
    BECMG 1022/1024 11020G30KT
    BECMG 1107/1109 12025G40KT 4000 -RA BKN008
    TEMPO 1110/1118 2500 -RASN BKN003=

    Recent METARs

    METAR EICK 102100Z 12017G29KT 8000 -SHGS BKN016 BKN030 01/M02 Q1017 NOSIG=
    METAR EICK 102030Z 11018KT 8000 -SHSN BKN016 BKN030 01/M02 Q1017 NOSIG=


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    #590
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,910 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    SleetAndSnow wrote: »
    Anything currently falling in Cork City is currently very wet and sleety. Are we already in a warmer airmass? Not boding well for tomorrow at all
    Bit odd alright but much heavier ppn should away the balance tomorrow


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    #591
    Squidvicious
    Registered Users Posts: 479 ✭✭Squidvicious


    Looking at some of the current temperatures on the NRA website, I have to say that I am becoming more sceptical about snow anywhere near the South Coast, though I know that the models are showing snow everywhere at least for a while. Generally speaking, temperatures are in the range if 1 to 2 Celsius currently. Given the liklihood of cloudy conditions overnight, it's hard to see temperatures falling much tonight. Winds will pick up considerably so we can't even rely on evaporative cooling to reduce temperatures once the precipitation arrives. I sincerely hope that I'm wrong but I fear that this may be more of an inland affair.


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    #592
    SleetAndSnow
    Registered Users Posts: 4,678 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    JanuarySnowstor wrote: »
    Bit odd alright but much heavier ppn should away the balance tomorrow

    Well it just suddenly went from nearly rain to snow in the the click of a finger and now everythings slowly going white. Very strange.

    EDIT: Its going back and forth between the two. Water droplets are pouring down the car one minute and then they are white and the road is white, and then its back to clear as it returns to wet...

    Can confirm it is sleeting now


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    #593
    Donegal Ken
    Registered Users Posts: 427 ✭✭Donegal Ken


    JanuarySnowstor wrote: »
    I don't think there is any chance of freezing rain MT.
    We havent seen a decent frost in over a week as it's been dull and cloudy. The ground is actually milder than average.

    I see Met Eireann have kept the warnings at yellow!!
    Will it prove to be case

    The west and northwest has seen frost even icicles forming on a beach in Donegal https://twitter.com/DonegalWeatherC/status/1359540213958254593


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    #594
    redsteveireland
    Registered Users Posts: 3,034 ✭✭✭redsteveireland


    JanuarySnowstor wrote: »
    I don't think there is any chance of freezing rain MT.
    We havent seen a decent frost in over a week as it's been dull and cloudy. The ground is actually milder than average.

    I see Met Eireann have kept the warnings at yellow!!
    Will it prove to be case

    The garden has gone nice and crispy here in Galway this evening, I have seen a hard frost cleared over night from approaching Atlantic systems in the past, we shall have to wait and see how this transpires.
    WFH tomorrow so will be hard to stay focused on work with this unfolding outside the window.


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    #595
    bazlers
    Registered Users Posts: 695 ✭✭✭bazlers


    Gonzo i think they are over doing the snow hollow to be honest. Looking at Snowbie latest forecast intensity wise it and advancement of front might work in your favour too. Still all to play for.
    There is alot of poster here who have invested many many hours in pursuit of snow on this thread. I sincerely hope they get their just rewards.
    Unfortunately nature doesnt work that way and can be very cruel:(


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    #596
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,136 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    AuntySnow wrote: »
    AUNTY lives on the east side of the wicklow mtns :D
    Place called Arklow


    (Dp's sub minus 6c today with a strong wind off the Sea here,..doesn't happen often)

    In fairness Aunty Snow is a new poster with only 500 odd posts who only joined a month or so ago so MT probably doesn't know of him......;)


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    #597
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Donegal Ken wrote: »
    The west and northwest has seen frost even icicles forming on a beach in Donegal https://twitter.com/DonegalWeatherC/status/1359540213958254593

    Beautiful pic
    We've had ice anywhere sheltered all day too in sth wicklow ,never thawed
    I notice a lot of the Davis stations up your way were below freezing again well before dark


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    #598
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    The 18Z ICON barely has any snow making it past a line from Mullingar to Dublin tomorrow night. It has more of a focus on Saturday now. It also has a mixed bag of almost all weather types possible; rain, snow, freezing rain (red) and even thunderstorms (pink)!

    giphy.gif


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    #599
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,564 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    GFS better precipitation forecast for tomorrow night than latest ICON. This is coming down to real time observations, nowcast.


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    #600
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,136 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    GFS better precipitation forecast for tomorrow night than latest ICON. This is coming down to real time observations, nowcast.

    We will keep them coming from under our umbrellas down here from about 9am I suspect....


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    #601
    mickger844posts
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    GFS giving snowfall in the east all day Saturday.

    Also better precipitation forecast for tomorrow night than latest ICON. This is coming down to real time observations, nowcast.

    Models at this range are only a guide. Its a nowcast for sure. First port of call for me when i wake up tomorrow is check the radar. Best of luck to everyone


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