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Cold Spell - Feb 7th to 13th 2021 - Technical Discussion

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    #392
    MJohnston
    Registered Users Posts: 10,572 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    ECM 18z:

    modezrpd-20210211-2100-animation.gif


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    #393
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,912 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    The uppers get warmer quite quickly across the South on the latest models so snow turning to rain on Thursday evening. Still a good few hours of falling snow but it would be fair to say nearly every model nudge a fraction milder on the overnight runs.
    So its an orange warning to come for Southern counties but no red for this event

    Worth watching the radar today though things quite active down south


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    #394
    Villain
    Registered Users Posts: 15,944 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    Latest HARMONIE is better looking for some snow tomorrow night for Southeast:

    https://twitter.com/carlowweather/status/1359393118643228673?s=21


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    #395
    Slashermcguirk
    Registered Users Posts: 1,980 ✭✭✭Slashermcguirk


    That looks pretty nice for Dublin too early morning.

    quote="Villain;116227820"]Latest HARMONIE is better looking for some snow tomorrow night for Southeast:

    https://twitter.com/carlowweather/status/1359393118643228673?s=21[/quote]


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    #396
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,409 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I agree, not seeing anything very different from earlier model runs and same spread of guidance, maybe a little coming together for a weak consensus but the range of possible snowfalls in the heaviest zone (looks to be inland southeast to Connacht) is 5 to 20 cm. Ten seems like a reasonable compromise.

    There could be movement in some direction at forecast time tomorrow morning, as the details become clearer. Here's a recent Atlantic satellite image showing the development of the frontal systems to the southwest at present time.

    This image will update so whenever you read this, it should be showing the latest imagery.

    https://weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/goes_sigwx_1070_100.jpg

    In the latest (06z) surface analysis, the low clearly visible in the western Atlantic is shown as 967 mb and it has been drifting slowly eastward at similar intensity for the past six hours. In the frontal system out ahead of this low, the larger blob to the south is probably the formation of the mild sector and the rainfall expected, so the snowfall would be forming in the weaker imagery to its north-northeast as well as out of any enhanced streamers from a southeast origin that would be forming in the area currently shown as stratus cloud layers.

    So that's what the models are dealing with, coming into range of the continuing cold easterly flow into Ireland.


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    #397
    Tyrone212
    Registered Users Posts: 1,570 ✭✭✭Tyrone212


    Ecm snow depth t50
    https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/ireland/snow-depth-in/20210212-0200z.html

    T84
    https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/ireland/snow-depth-in/20210213-1200z.html


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    #398
    justy182
    Registered Users Posts: 74 ✭✭justy182


    All mention of snow in Ulster in MT forecast gone for Saturday ??? That’s some turnaround.


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    #399
    mickger844posts
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    A quick look through this mornings runs and the front is delayed by a good 5 hours or so compared to yesterdays runs. For my own location in Waterford City arrival around 3pm as opposed to 10am which was the output last night. Looks to be very slow moving so could dump quiet an amount of snow. I would be surprised if Met Eireann don't update Warning Levels to Orange for some South East counties and possibly Cork.


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    #400
    Rock Lesnar
    Registered Users Posts: 11,880 ✭✭✭✭Rock Lesnar


    BBC showed snow for the south mostly, not much further north


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    #401
    Reckless Abandonment
    Registered Users Posts: 1,496 ✭✭✭Reckless Abandonment


    Much better activity in the Irish sea this morning. GL how are all them layers/ soundings looking?


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    #402
    justy182
    Registered Users Posts: 74 ✭✭justy182


    Rock Lesnar wrote: »
    BBC showed snow for the south mostly, not much further north

    Was really wondering about Friday night and Saturday potential. Thought some models this morning were still suggesting a good amount for Ulster. Met E also mentioned it but possibly mild air will win out it seems.


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    #403
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    mickger844posts wrote: »
    A quick look through this mornings runs and the front is delayed by a good 5 hours or so compared to yesterdays runs. For my own location in Waterford City arrival around 3pm as opposed to 10am which was the output last night. Looks to be very slow moving so could dump quiet an amount of snow. I would be surprised if Met Eireann don't update Warning Levels to Orange for some South East counties and possibly Cork.

    Yeah that's going to struggle to get to Wexford


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    #404
    Little snowy old me
    Registered Users Posts: 420 ✭✭Little snowy old me


    A beautiful morning in Donegal. Cold, dry and crisp. Breeze has dropped a lot so that severe windchill has gone. Reading through this mornings forecasts and yet more u turns. I don't think I can recall a forecasting period of such uncertainty and inaccuracy.


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    #405
    mickger844posts
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    AuntySnow wrote: »
    Yeah that's going to struggle to get to Wexford

    GFS has Wexford well covered with the front end of the band reaching Dublin by 9pm or so. Still lots of uncertainty and probably will be a nowcast.


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    #406
    MJohnston
    Registered Users Posts: 10,572 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    Nobody posting any charts this morning? I'll bite. ECM 00z:

    modezrpd-20210210-1000-animation.gif

    xx-model-en-318-0-modezrpd-2021021000-90-949-63.png

    The one thing most models are showing is pretty rapid loss of snow depth — we could be looking at some flood warnings with all the combined precipitation and snow melt.


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    #407
    TTLF
    Registered Users Posts: 671 ✭✭✭TTLF
    save the trouble and jazz it up


    Probably a now cast, but the way it looks, S, SE and E really get a good dumping as that low stalls, the front reaches past Dublin and then starts to turn a little, precip stays all over the east coast from E coast Meath all the way to Wexford. :)

    Not sure on the front's arrival time however, I think that'll be completely a nowcast situation.


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    #408
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,948 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Yeah id say the North and West will not see much precipitation at all until the rains come


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    #409
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 5,990 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    MJohnston wrote: »
    Nobody posting any charts this morning? I'll bite. ECM 00z:

    modezrpd-20210210-1000-animation.gif

    xx-model-en-318-0-modezrpd-2021021000-90-949-63.png

    The one thing most models are showing is pretty rapid loss of snow depth — we could be looking at some flood warnings with all the combined precipitation and snow melt.

    That snow depth chart you posted is for right now.


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    #410
    typhoony
    Registered Users Posts: 1,496 ✭✭✭typhoony


    Not exactly an upgrade but the front is stalling, I think a line between galway - Portumna - portlaoise - Wicklow might be where it stalls


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    #411
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,702 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    pauldry wrote: »
    Yeah id say the North and West will not see much precipitation at all until the rains come

    Yes its starting to look that way. The land will be quite soggy again after this weekend.


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    #412
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Will Louth get some or is it mainly the south?


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    #413
    Tyrone212
    Registered Users Posts: 1,570 ✭✭✭Tyrone212


    Saturday snow warning for up here

    A band of snow is likely to arrive into Northern Ireland during the early hours of Saturday, then move east into parts of England, Wales and Scotland through the day. Not all areas will have snow, but where it does fall 1-4 cm are possible widely, with 5-10 cm, perhaps up to 15 cm over high ground.


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    #414
    lucernarian
    Registered Users Posts: 9,235 ✭✭✭lucernarian


    TheMilkyPirate wrote: »
    That snow depth chart you posted is for right now.
    Yes, and it's not even accurate with what's happening on the ground in the highlighted areas.


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    #415
    reubenreuben
    Registered Users Posts: 1,096 ✭✭✭reubenreuben


    Heavy swirling snow here in Meath/Louth border. Not sticking yet


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    #416
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,578 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    GFS & ICON 19z tomorrow...


    36-574UK.GIF?10-6

    iconeu_uk1-1-36-0.png?10-10


    Getting on the same page now but still some distance in projected intensity. Should be ironed out more or less by tonight I would think.


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    #417
    MJohnston
    Registered Users Posts: 10,572 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    TheMilkyPirate wrote: »
    That snow depth chart you posted is for right now.

    Oops, didn't embed the proper gif version:

    modezrpd-20210210-1000-animation.gif


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    #418
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Soundings look good tomorrow but the big thing to note is the snow shadow from the Wicklow mountains. It seems to stretch northwestwards as far north as Cavan. A little disappointing from an IMBY point of view.


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    #419
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users Posts: 6,163 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    Gaoth Laidir wrote: »
    Soundings look good tomorrow but the big thing to note is the snow shadow from the Wicklow mountains. It seems to stretch northwestwards as far north as Cavan. A little disappointing from an IMBY point of view.

    Is that all over or for midlands/Dublin area?


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    #420
    mickger844posts
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    Gaoth Laidir wrote: »
    Soundings look good tomorrow but the big thing to note is the snow shadow from the Wicklow mountains. It seems to stretch northwestwards as far north as Cavan. A little disappointing from an IMBY point of view.

    Always an ease to the nerves to have GL onboard. :)


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    #421
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,578 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    munsterlegend wrote: »
    Is that all over or for midlands/Dublin area?

    Dublin is exposed to the southeasterly wind so should be fine but Kildare is definitely in a shadow to some extent. Most models actually show that with either light precip or even none at all at times.

    See here, this is a shadow

    45-574UK.GIF?10-6


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