Cold Spell - Feb 7th to 13th 2021 - Technical Discussion

Davaeo09 · 09-02-2021 09:03PM

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Yes my area is more chance of marginal but the areas you mention above are the bullseye hours and hours of snow!!

I live at the opposite side of the Commins between Kilmanagh/Tullaroan I expect there to be a sort of funneling effect here down to Kilkenny city too.
Kilkenny City itself is always 1-2 degrees higher and nearly 150m lower. It might not do as well. The terrain turns back to highland towards Carlow over Muckalee/Comer/Johnswell area. After that it might not be as intense.

I do remember MT saying there might not be as much interference from high ground so maybe I am totally wrong about the lower lying lands :P

PokeHerKing · 09-02-2021 09:03PM

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Expect a red warning for the South of Ireland.
Heres why,

- The southwest of England is going to see extremely low temps Wed night. This is where our feed of air is coming from Thursday morning as the rain nudges up. -6 is forecast for places like Cornwall. The forecasted uppers emphasise this as they actually get colder through the day when you would expect them to rise
-The ppn will move up over the South and stall. Favoured spots are looking at perhaps 12 hours of heavy snow. 12hours is exceptional!!
- The beeb are showing all snow for the South of Ireland through Thursday. The front doesn't turn to rain it evaporates from the cold. Take a look at their video it's very like 2018 from the pov of predicted snow.

So in summary yes mild is coming but it's such a slow process that serious snow dumping is most likely across the South on Thursday and for me it's code red!

Put the glue down and step away from the computer.

Gaoth Laidir · 09-02-2021 09:07PM

Some very heavy snow being reported through northern France now as a potent little low pressure system moves in from the west.

Meteorite58 · 09-02-2021 09:08PM

The shape of the projected area that might see snow on Thurs has changed some bit over the last few days for sure and still plenty of time for adjustments. Snow accumulations look fairly likely I would think, some areas getting a good pasting perhaps and to remember that it is going to be very windy and straying close to warning levels for wind alone in some counties, also the fact that the winds are coming from the SE will appear even stronger as not the usual direction for many , would expect some snow ending up piled against ditches, walls, houses etc, not snow drifts like during the beast but enough for the kids ( and big kids ) to gather for snowmen I reckon

but you might want to be quick if the rain follows.

Staying windy over the coming days as the isobars tighten, warnings look possible.

Fri night / Sat might be the main event if ECM and ICON is to be believed.

Rough weather coming up over the coming days. Flooding potential in Southern counties.

The real weather is just about to begin I would think. By later Sunday it looks like we will have a bit of everything from the week gone by, could be a memorable number of days coming up. No Hype just what I think it looks like.

Gaoth Laidir · 09-02-2021 09:16PM

18Z ICON has a few hours of action for the southern half of the country Thursday, but fairly light and fizzling out a great deal. It's early Saturday where its focus has now shifted. Transient snow overnight, followed by rain. Hmmm...I'm not staying up Friday night to watch that.

Donegal Ken · 09-02-2021 09:18PM

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Expect a red warning for the South of Ireland.
Heres why,

- The southwest of England is going to see extremely low temps Wed night. This is where our feed of air is coming from Thursday morning as the rain nudges up. -6 is forecast for places like Cornwall. The forecasted uppers emphasise this as they actually get colder through the day when you would expect them to rise
-The ppn will move up over the South and stall. Favoured spots are looking at perhaps 12 hours of heavy snow. 12hours is exceptional!!
- The beeb are showing all snow for the South of Ireland through Thursday. The front doesn't turn to rain it evaporates from the cold. Take a look at their video it's very like 2018 from the pov of predicted snow.

So in summary yes mild is coming but it's such a slow process that serious snow dumping is most likely across the South on Thursday and for me it's code red!

If anything Friday night into Saturday morning could be close to a Orange or Red warning across the northern half of Ireland as things stand. Cant see a Red Warning been issued very low chance of that.

Look at the northwest, west and south west tonight its forecast to get down to -5C maybe even lower locally in some areas to around -6C tor -7C and no low temperatures warning has been issued and we have seen them issued for much less here.

JanuarySnowstor · 09-02-2021 09:19PM

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Some very heavy snow being reported through northern France now as a potent little low pressure system moves in from the west.

And this is where our airflow comes from Thursday!!

JanuarySnowstor · 09-02-2021 09:24PM

https://i.imgur.com/0b2e0df.png

ECM for Thurs night yet comments that it's only gfs shows snow down South?

Little snowy old me · 09-02-2021 09:31PM

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Expect a red warning for the South of Ireland.
Heres why,

- The southwest of England is going to see extremely low temps Wed night. This is where our feed of air is coming from Thursday morning as the rain nudges up. -6 is forecast for places like Cornwall. The forecasted uppers emphasise this as they actually get colder through the day when you would expect them to rise
-The ppn will move up over the South and stall. Favoured spots are looking at perhaps 12 hours of heavy snow. 12hours is exceptional!!
- The beeb are showing all snow for the South of Ireland through Thursday. The front doesn't turn to rain it evaporates from the cold. Take a look at their video it's very like 2018 from the pov of predicted snow.

So in summary yes mild is coming but it's such a slow process that serious snow dumping is most likely across the South on Thursday and for me it's code red!

The hype is getting out of hand.

Kermit.de.frog · 09-02-2021 09:33PM

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

18Z ICON has a few hours of action for the southern half of the country Thursday, but fairly light and fizzling out a great deal. It's early Saturday where its focus has now shifted. Transient snow overnight, followed by rain. Hmmm...I'm not staying up Friday night to watch that.

That's the 12z

Gaoth Laidir · 09-02-2021 09:38PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

That's the 12z

WTF! Not sure how that happened.

Anyway, here's the 18Z. Better alright.

Kermit.de.frog · 09-02-2021 09:45PM

Anything that trends toward the GFS is good.

This "event" is still very much on the cards.

JanuarySnowstor · 09-02-2021 09:50PM

How are dew points looking Thursday?

mickger844posts · 09-02-2021 09:59PM

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

How are dew points looking Thursday?

Dew Points are fine for most and in fact all the parameters needed to give hours of snow are there. I'm looking at sweet spots being South Tipp, South Kilkenny and Waterford. Unless there are downgrades on the charts tomorrow Met Eireann would have to issue an Orange Level Warning (at least)

Kermit.de.frog · 09-02-2021 10:01PM

If the ECM ups the precip in the morning there will be new warnings surely.

GFS is giving over 12 hours worth of snow to varying intensities up and down the east coast from Thursday afternoon.

The southeast looks particularly vulnerable to disruption.

typhoony · 09-02-2021 10:07PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

If the ECM ups the precip in the morning there will be new warnings surely.

GFS is giving over 12 hours worth of snow to varying intensities up and down the east coast from Thursday afternoon.

The southeast looks particularly vulnerable to disruption.

18z GFS from Thursday afternoon to Saturday Morning the east looks best, with a brief clear slot between the 2 fronts, the 1st one never really pushes fully through so the East holds the cold until Saturday.

Slashermcguirk · 09-02-2021 10:09PM

It’s all a bit bizarre, so much pessimism on here due to charts and yet met Éireann still going for plenty of snow potential with their 7.30pm update

Are they seeing something that people on here are not?

average_runner · 09-02-2021 10:11PM

typhoony wrote: »

18z GFS from Thursday afternoon to Saturday Morning the east looks best, with a brief clear slot between the 2 fronts, the 1st one never really pushes fully through so the East holds the cold until Saturday.

Friday and sat too far away. We keep pushing it out.

TheMilkyPirate · 09-02-2021 10:12PM

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

It’s all a bit bizarre, so much pessimism on here due to charts and yet met Éireann still going for plenty of snow potential with their 7.30pm update

Are they seeing something that people on here are not?

The pessimism was directed more at the fact the cold spell will end on the weekend rather than Thursday itself

Speak Now · 09-02-2021 10:13PM

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

It’s all a bit bizarre, so much pessimism on here due to charts and yet met Éireann still going for plenty of snow potential with their 7.30pm update

Are they seeing something that people on here are not?

Pessimism is because the south east looks the sweet spot for Thursday.

pad199207 · 09-02-2021 10:14PM

Around the Bunclody area could be the sweet spot.

TheMilkyPirate · 09-02-2021 10:16PM

pad199207 wrote: »

Around the Bunclody area could be the sweet spot.

Yeah anyone in the mount Leinster area and surrounding foothills will see a serious dumping of snow Thursday

JanuarySnowstor · 09-02-2021 10:18PM

https://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2021020918/gfs-16-48.png?18
8cms + lying snow in the Southeast by thurs evening

Itssoeasy · 09-02-2021 10:20PM

It seems that Thursday is the day for something to happen in cork. Well that’s what it seems like anyway but what I’m looking at isn’t as informed as the lads here. Is the snow shield for cork taking a day off then ?

Slashermcguirk · 09-02-2021 10:21PM

What did they say on weather after 9pm rte news?

SleetAndSnow · 09-02-2021 10:21PM

Itssoeasy wrote: »

It seems that Thursday is the day for something to happen in cork. Well that’s what it seems like anyway but what I’m looking at isn’t as informed as the lads here. Is the snow shield for cork taking a day off then ?

I'd hope so! Just asked google assistant if its going to snow on Thursday and the response was "Yes from 6am to 10pm".

Can the weather apps be right for once

Speak Now · 09-02-2021 10:24PM

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

https://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2021020918/gfs-16-48.png?18
8cms + lying snow in the Southeast by tomorrow evening

Thursday evening.

JanuarySnowstor · 09-02-2021 10:25PM

Speak Now wrote: »

Thursday evening.

Yes of course just corrected it tks

Cluedo Monopoly · 09-02-2021 10:26PM

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

What did they say on weather after 9pm rte news?

They said always to use a carrot for the nose.

Gaoth Laidir · 09-02-2021 10:26PM

Remember the strong southeasterly winds Thursday, which will most likely push Leinster coastal areas and inland more towards marginal. Salt spray in the air should not be understimated.

Cold Spell - Feb 7th to 13th 2021 - Technical Discussion

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