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2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,328 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Graham wrote: »
    muttering from........

    Government sources, it was in the papers during the week, that there is a limit on how much Ireland can borrow and keep paying the PUP for example.

    Rebalancing the budget was mentioned which is code for tax rises.


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,643 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    Wouldn't mind a link or two if you have them, I must have missed it. I certainly don't recall anything about borrowing limits or tax increases.

    Thanks


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,328 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Graham wrote: »
    Wouldn't mind a link or two if you have them, I must have missed it. I certainly don't recall anything about borrowing limits or tax increases.

    Thanks

    Think it was in the Irish Examiner during the week, possible Wednesday or Thursday.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,909 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Hubertj wrote:
    RPZs would be 1 instead of actually addressing the systemic issues. How many times has legislation been changed in the last few years negatively impacting a landlords control of their own property instead of addressing the actual issues the sector faces? You believe it’s all a conspiracy when it’s more complex than that.

    RPZ allow for 4% inflation in rents, that is considerably higher than general inflation and wage inflation.

    Gov have been pushing small landlords out of the market which is unhelpful IMO. Im not convinced that the rental market is stacked heavily in the tenants favour, quite the contrary. There are far more good tenants than bad and likewise LL"s.
    I'm puzzled why LL"s are not complaining about the tax treatment of REITs over smaller LLs where there is clear visible enormous inequality.

    Again can you tell me about this conspiracy


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,925 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    enricoh wrote: »
    Was reading cormac luceys article in the Sunday times today, it really pointed out how Ireland is a one trick pony n totally reliant on corporation tax. 40% of all tax generated comes from mnc's.

    Corporation tax is either going to reduce a bit or a lot- not great options.theres going to be a lot of holes in the coffers n housing will be in the firing line imo. I can't see government levels of spending on housing continuing. Property tax won't be peanuts either as I don't think they can tax working much more. I don't think wages can rise much more either or competitiveness goes out the door. Better chance of price drops than price rises imo.
    It is ironic that the collapse in revenue related to property sales was instrumental in the troika coming to town.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,185 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    enricoh wrote: »
    Was reading cormac luceys article in the Sunday times today, it really pointed out how Ireland is a one trick pony n totally reliant on corporation tax. 40% of all tax generated comes from mnc's.

    Corporation tax is either going to reduce a bit or a lot- not great options.theres going to be a lot of holes in the coffers n housing will be in the firing line imo. I can't see government levels of spending on housing continuing. Property tax won't be peanuts either as I don't think they can tax working much more. I don't think wages can rise much more either or competitiveness goes out the door. Better chance of price drops than price rises imo.

    That article must have been counting things like income tax from employess, because in 2019, corporation tax amounted to 18.35% of government revenue, by my calculations. https://www.audit.gov.ie/en/find-report/publications/2020/2019-annual-report-chapter-1-exchequer-financial-outturn-for-2019.pdf

    The corporation tax is already very low.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,432 ✭✭✭combat14


    markodaly wrote: »
    Government sources, it was in the papers during the week, that there is a limit on how much Ireland can borrow and keep paying the PUP for example.

    Rebalancing the budget was mentioned which is code for tax rises.

    ah lads cant pay any more taxes .. already like taking blood from a stone .....

    going to be very difficult to keep paying those nose bleed rents in dublin if income taxes go up


    then again a huge proportion of lower income workers are paying no taxes compared to most european countries perhaps the government could start there ..
    but the landlords wont be happy when the rent strike happens lol


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    combat14 wrote: »
    ah lads cant pay any more taxes .. already like taking blood from a stone .....

    going to be very difficult to keep paying those nose bleed rents in dublin if income taxes go up


    then again a huge proportion of lower income workers are paying no taxes compared to most european countries perhaps the government could start there ..
    but the landlords wont be happy when the rent strike happens lol

    Leo Varadkar last November called for “a grown-up conversation on increasing Employers' and Employees' PRSI to fund a reformed social insurance system, including income-linked unemployment benefits.”

    And, remember they were also looking at increasing the pension age before the last election in January 2020.

    Carbon taxes will also increase substantially every year. They may not increase income taxes but everything else will. Also, given that councils are going to permanently get less in commercial rates going forward, residential property taxes will most likely increase significantly going forward to meet any shortfall IMO.

    There’s only property, pensions and inheritance taxes left to tax IMO

    It’s only then that my age group will see how the mismanagement of housing is going to impact us directly going forward IMO

    Link to RTÉ article on Leo calling for a grown-up conversation on PRSI hikes here: https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/1123/1180017-low-pay-prsi/


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    Villa05 wrote: »
    RPZ allow for 4% inflation in rents, that is considerably higher than general inflation and wage inflation.

    Gov have been pushing small landlords out of the market which is unhelpful IMO. Im not convinced that the rental market is stacked heavily in the tenants favour, quite the contrary. There are far more good tenants than bad and likewise LL"s.
    I'm puzzled why LL"s are not complaining about the tax treatment of REITs over smaller LLs where there is clear visible enormous inequality.

    Again can you tell me about this conspiracy

    I read the relevant sections of the RTA a while back to understand what has changed the last few years. To suggest the changes haven’t negatively impacted landlords in favour of tenants would indicate you didn’t understand the changes or choose to ignore them. Changes that were introduced due to address populist views in media and among certain political elements. What needed to happen was existing legislation properly enforced, RTB properly resourced and held accountable, amongst other things.
    You seem to think everything is a conspiracy. Ethernet government and a few rich developers and funds to extract maximum value from the tax payer. If only it was that easy.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Hubertj wrote: »
    I read the relevant sections of the RTA a while back to understand what has changed the last few years. To suggest the changes haven’t negatively impacted landlords in favour of tenants would indicate you didn’t understand the changes or choose to ignore them. Changes that were introduced due to address populist views in media and among certain political elements. What needed to happen was existing legislation properly enforced, RTB properly resourced and held accountable, amongst other things.
    You seem to think everything is a conspiracy. Ethernet government and a few rich developers and funds to extract maximum value from the tax payer. If only it was that easy.


    Rents in Dublin in 2019 were 40% above 2007 levels. How is that a "negatively impacted"? Landlords have been the only gainers IMO.

    My opinion is that landlords appear to be more upset that they now have to pay both tax on their income like every other business and have to now also ensure their properties aren't firetraps i.e. just like every other business e.g. hotels, concert venues, pubs etc. Yes, they were also required to pay tax before but, unlike now, it wasn't adequately enforced.

    HAP (from c.€400k spent in 2014 to c.€500 million spent in 2019), which is basically a direct subsidy to landlords to keep market rents at existing levels wouldn't be needed if a proper vacant property tax was introduced like many other countries in the developed world from socialist EU countries to capitalist America.

    An extra €500 million a year would pay for a lot of extra nurses, doctors, ambulances, gardai etc. Instead it goes directly into the bank accounts of landlords IMO


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 339 ✭✭IAmTheReign


    enricoh wrote: »
    Was reading cormac luceys article in the Sunday times today, it really pointed out how Ireland is a one trick pony n totally reliant on corporation tax. 40% of all tax generated comes from mnc's.

    Corporation tax is either going to reduce a bit or a lot- not great options.theres going to be a lot of holes in the coffers n housing will be in the firing line imo. I can't see government levels of spending on housing continuing. Property tax won't be peanuts either as I don't think they can tax working much more. I don't think wages can rise much more either or competitiveness goes out the door. Better chance of price drops than price rises imo.

    Have you a link that article? I'm curious to see where exactly they got that 40% number. OECD has corporation tax at only 14% of total tax take, not 40%.

    https://www.oecd.org/tax/revenue-statistics-ireland.pdf


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Have you a link that article? I'm curious to see where exactly they got that 40% number. OECD has corporation tax at only 14% of total tax take, not 40%.

    https://www.oecd.org/tax/revenue-statistics-ireland.pdf




    The article is very good. The writer points was that when you include corporation tax, the taxes on their workers salaries, VAT on their local purchases etc., that 40% of government revenues are dependent upon multinationals in Ireland and that the Government should be keeping a closer eye on the upcoming global tax changes and Biden, UK and EU looking to take these taxes and jobs back to their own countries.

    You can read one article in the Sunday Times free by signing up.

    Link to Sunday Times article here: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/cormac-lucey-white-house-has-its-finger-on-the-trigger-and-is-targeting-our-corporation-tax-take-vx7rh0zvr


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,286 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    Leo Varadkar last November called for “a grown-up conversation on increasing Employers' and Employees' PRSI to fund a reformed social insurance system, including income-linked unemployment benefits.”

    Income linked unemployment benefits and/or contributory pensions- run counter to the message being sold by several of the left-leaning political groupings, who imply that the proletariat are all equally deserving, irrespective of what they have or have not put into the system.

    The fact of the matter is- the system as it stands is not in good financial health, and as the dependency ratio heads from 4:1 towards 2:1- this strain is only going to get more and more apparent.
    And, remember they were also looking at increasing the pension age before the last election in January 2020.

    Today, Monday the 8th of Jan- they have announced a blanket payment of EUR203 a week (aka unemployment rate) for all those who retire at 65 but aren't eligible for the COAP or the NCOAP until age 66- without any necessity to pretend they are seeking employment etc. This new arrangement is to be implemented immediately. The Minister (Heather Humphreys) sees it as extremely progressive. Hmmm- lets see.
    Carbon taxes will also increase substantially every year. They may not increase income taxes but everything else will. Also, given that councils are going to permanently get less in commercial rates going forward, residential property taxes will most likely increase significantly going forward to meet any shortfall IMO.

    There’s only property, pensions and inheritance taxes left to tax IMO

    We are already signed up to continuous increases in carbon taxes- alongside a new road tax that is divorced from the notion of crucifying older cars while not making new cars pay their shares.

    Income taxes may not increase- however, we urgently need a new band- and a broadening of the base to bring more people into the tax bands- including a tally of *all* income (the whole notion of exempt income, be it social welfare disbursements, subsidised housing or whatever- it all needs to be tallied and taxed). Until such time as the notion of a free-hand-out gets hit on the head for once and for all, we're going to be sunk.

    Residential property tax- is a joker- its set at such an implausibly low level on the one hand, and the size of a dwelling has no input into the tax on the other hand. It makes perfect sense to thoroughly reform this- however, the whole notion of people living in rural mansions versus shoebox apartments in Dublin- also needs to be addressed in this one. Arguably, and a sop towards those living in managed complexes- anyone paying management fees to an OMC- should be able to deduct them in full from their property taxes (and the property tax should be set at a level capable of absorbing this- which may well be a couple of grand- tough titties).
    It’s only then that my age group will see how the mismanagement of housing is going to impact us directly going forward IMO

    Its not just housing though- its across the board- we may have one of the great redistributive tax systems- however, its at the cost of a squeezed middle who are well capable of working far more productively, but who don't, because our penal rate of taxes and charges kicks in at an abnormally low level of circa 35k. We need to incentivise this group- its hard to motivate people when a majority of their marginal income is going straight to the government.
    Link to RTÉ article on Leo calling for a grown-up conversation on PRSI hikes here: https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/1123/1180017-low-pay-prsi/

    PRSI- is only one element of the equation. How to fund PRSI disbursements- in a time of an aging population- is one question that needs to be answered. How to be equitable to a workforce who are contributing an increasing proportion of their income towards PRSI tolls, when there is sweet damn all difference between a contributory old age pension and a non-contributory old age pension- is going to set the great unwashed proletariat against those middle income earners who are paying between 10 and 16% for something that their next door neighbour gets for free........

    A lot of the discussions and changes that have to happen- are going to be terribly unpopular, and our gormless politicians have shown that they don't have the gonads to look beyond the media and the court of public opinion. Frankly- its a foregone conclusion that they are going to fail on this.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Income linked unemployment benefits and/or contributory pensions- run counter to the message being sold by several of the left-leaning political groupings, who imply that the proletariat are all equally deserving, irrespective of what they have or have not put into the system.

    The fact of the matter is- the system as it stands is not in good financial health, and as the dependency ratio heads from 4:1 towards 2:1- this strain is only going to get more and more apparent.



    Today, Monday the 8th of Jan- they have announced a blanket payment of EUR203 a week (aka unemployment rate) for all those who retire at 65 but aren't eligible for the COAP or the NCOAP until age 66- without any necessity to pretend they are seeking employment etc. This new arrangement is to be implemented immediately. The Minister (Heather Humphreys) sees it as extremely progressive. Hmmm- lets see.



    We are already signed up to continuous increases in carbon taxes- alongside a new road tax that is divorced from the notion of crucifying older cars while not making new cars pay their shares.

    Income taxes may not increase- however, we urgently need a new band- and a broadening of the base to bring more people into the tax bands- including a tally of *all* income (the whole notion of exempt income, be it social welfare disbursements, subsidised housing or whatever- it all needs to be tallied and taxed). Until such time as the notion of a free-hand-out gets hit on the head for once and for all, we're going to be sunk.

    Residential property tax- is a joker- its set at such an implausibly low level on the one hand, and the size of a dwelling has no input into the tax on the other hand. It makes perfect sense to thoroughly reform this- however, the whole notion of people living in rural mansions versus shoebox apartments in Dublin- also needs to be addressed in this one. Arguably, and a sop towards those living in managed complexes- anyone paying management fees to an OMC- should be able to deduct them in full from their property taxes (and the property tax should be set at a level capable of absorbing this- which may well be a couple of grand- tough titties).



    Its not just housing though- its across the board- we may have one of the great redistributive tax systems- however, its at the cost of a squeezed middle who are well capable of working far more productively, but who don't, because our penal rate of taxes and charges kicks in at an abnormally low level of circa 35k. We need to incentivise this group- its hard to motivate people when a majority of their marginal income is going straight to the government.



    PRSI- is only one element of the equation. How to fund PRSI disbursements- in a time of an aging population- is one question that needs to be answered. How to be equitable to a workforce who are contributing an increasing proportion of their income towards PRSI tolls, when there is sweet damn all difference between a contributory old age pension and a non-contributory old age pension- is going to set the great unwashed proletariat against those middle income earners who are paying between 10 and 16% for something that their next door neighbour gets for free........

    A lot of the discussions and changes that have to happen- are going to be terribly unpopular, and our gormless politicians have shown that they don't have the gonads to look beyond the media and the court of public opinion. Frankly- its a foregone conclusion that they are going to fail on this.


    Some good points. But I think peoples opinions on the possible savings achievable on social welfare spending were debunked by the actual Government figures on the 2019 c. €20 billion "social welfare" spend. Even if they cut dole down to zero, it would have a minimal impact on Government revenues while also increasing spending on crime, homelessness, anti-social behaviour etc. i.e. no net benefit to government revenues outside of making the lives of the bottom 1% more miserable than they already are and also making the lives of the middle class more miserable by having to live with this extra crime etc. IMO

    Link to the breakdown of the 2019 "social welfare" spending here: https://whereyourmoneygoes.gov.ie/en/socialprotection/2019/


  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,697 ✭✭✭hometruths


    The article is very good. The writer points was that when you include corporation tax, the taxes on their workers salaries, VAT on their local purchases etc., that 40% of government revenues are dependent upon multinationals in Ireland and that the Government should be keeping a closer eye on the upcoming global tax changes and Biden, UK and EU looking to take these taxes and jobs back to their own countries.

    You can read one article in the Sunday Times free by signing up.

    Link to Sunday Times article here: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/cormac-lucey-white-house-has-its-finger-on-the-trigger-and-is-targeting-our-corporation-tax-take-vx7rh0zvr

    There is a copy, not sure if it is full version, on Cormac Lucey's blog. http://cormaclucey.blogspot.com/2021/02/white-house-has-its-finger-on-trigger.html

    Stand out point for me is:
    Ireland’s remarkable economic progress in recent decades has relied on us clambering onto the shoulders of others, particularly America. In this entire matter we are price-takers, dependent on the decisions of others, more than price-makers, who get to determine the rules.

    If these companies are here for other reasons than tax, eg the weather, then we have nothing to worry about.

    But if not...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,045 ✭✭✭MacronvFrugals


    Yew Grove Reit sets its sights on offices outside Dublin

    Yew Grove is attracted to the Dublin suburban market, as it believes that in the wake of the pandemic, young office workers will prefer to work in offices in order to develop their careers and to avoid working in small apartments. For them, and also for those with houses who are also working from home, offices will need to be more attractive places to work.

    The Reit also wishes to purchase in Cork, Galway and Limerick.


    Granted 20 million is not that much here but interesting comments on the WFH cohort.

    https://www.businesspost.ie/commercial/yew-grove-reit-sets-its-sights-on-offices-outside-dublin-c4619709?auth=login


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,197 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    Rents in Dublin in 2019 were 40% above 2007 levels. How is that a "negatively impacted"? Landlords have been the only gainers IMO.

    My opinion is that landlords appear to be more upset that they now have to pay both tax on their income like every other business and have to now also ensure their properties aren't firetraps i.e. just like every other business e.g. hotels, concert venues, pubs etc. Yes, they were also required to pay tax before but, unlike now, it wasn't adequately enforced.

    HAP (from c.€400k spent in 2014 to c.€500 million spent in 2019), which is basically a direct subsidy to landlords to keep market rents at existing levels wouldn't be needed if a proper vacant property tax was introduced like many other countries in the developed world from socialist EU countries to capitalist America.

    An extra €500 million a year would pay for a lot of extra nurses, doctors, ambulances, gardai etc. Instead it goes directly into the bank accounts of landlords IMO
    I would love to pay tax on rental income like other businesses.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,612 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Could this be a game changer for the rental market? Just listening to P.Kenny talking about it on newstalk right now. 25% below market and long term contracts and only for people working.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/state-s-first-cost-rental-scheme-to-provide-350-new-homes-by-end-of-2021-1.4436259


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    fliball123 wrote: »
    Could this be a game changer for the rental market? Just listening to P.Kenny talking about it on newstalk right now. 25% below market and long term contracts and only for people working.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/state-s-first-cost-rental-scheme-to-provide-350-new-homes-by-end-of-2021-1.4436259


    The interesting thing would be if market rents fall by c. 50% in the next two years. Will those cost-rental tenants then get a rent reduction?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,612 ✭✭✭fliball123


    The interesting thing would be if market rents fall by c. 50% in the next two years. Will those cost-rental tenants then get a rent reduction?

    Can you see rent falling by 50% in the next 2 years. How much has it fallen by in 2019/2020 with all the different issues going on?


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  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,286 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    The interesting thing would be if market rents fall by c. 50% in the next two years. Will those cost-rental tenants then get a rent reduction?

    How could they- if their rent is based on factors other than the prevailing rate of rent?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    schmittel wrote: »
    There is a copy, not sure if it is full version, on Cormac Lucey's blog. http://cormaclucey.blogspot.com/2021/02/white-house-has-its-finger-on-trigger.html

    Stand out point for me is:



    If these companies are here for other reasons than tax, eg the weather, then we have nothing to worry about.

    But if not...

    Yes they’re only here for the tax


  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,697 ✭✭✭hometruths


    fliball123 wrote: »
    Can you see rent falling by 50% in the next 2 years. How much has it fallen by in 2019/2020 with all the different issues going on?

    They fell 3.3% in Dublin, rose by 5.4% outside Dublin.
    Rents fell in 23 of Dublin’s 25 markets with modest annual increase in rents of 0.2 per cent in Dublin 24 and 0.5 per cent in Dublin 20. In Dublin, 1, 4 and 6, rents in the final three months of 2020 were 6 per cent lower than a year earlier, while in Dublin 2, they were down 7 per cent.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/rents-in-dublin-fell-3-3-last-year-as-supply-rose-due-to-covid-19-1.4478402


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,045 ✭✭✭MacronvFrugals


    Hubertj wrote: »
    Yes they’re only here for the tax

    Mostly here for tax....


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    How could they- if their rent is based on factors other than the prevailing rate of rent?


    Well, then the tenants may move out and rent somewhere cheaper. Is the state then going to leave them empty (like the REITS etc.) until they get the rent they want?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Mostly here for tax....


    I think a good way to prove that is to see how many times the CEO's of Apple, Microsoft, Google, Facebook etc. have visited their European headquarters in Ireland over the past several years.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,612 ✭✭✭fliball123


    schmittel wrote: »

    cool so with no tourism over some of that period I cant see rents dropping by 50% in the next 2 years.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    Mostly here for tax....

    Of course they are


  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,697 ✭✭✭hometruths


    fliball123 wrote: »
    cool so with no tourism over some of that period I cant see rents dropping by 50% in the next 2 years.

    Tourism is not really supposed to be a big driver of domestic rents.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,962 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    I think a good way to prove that is to see how many times the CEO's of Apple, Microsoft, Google, Facebook etc. have visited their European headquarters in Ireland over the past several years.

    how does that prove anything?

    how often do they visit any HQ outside the US?


This discussion has been closed.
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