COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 2 [Mod Warning - Post #1]

Micky 32 · 04-02-2021 12:23AM

polesheep wrote: »

I was clear that burning out meant stopping for a reason/s not immediately obvious. And many western countries were locked down over Christmas.

Just to add a little more info about the 44% drop in cases in the USA. Quite interesting:

“Public health experts believe that the decline in cases is likely a combination of a higher number of people who've had the virus than official counts suggest - meaning as many as 90 million people have antibodies against the virus - and fewer people traveling and holding gatherings than did over the winter holidays.”

“Dr Ali Mokdad, a professor of Health Metrics Sciences at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), said there are a number of reasons for the decline in case.

One of the reasons for the sharp drop in cases, even if not the primary driver, are vaccines.“

Geuze · 04-02-2021 12:30AM

Deathofcool wrote: »

Dr John Campbell looking at the data in the Lancet behind the Oxford Aztrazeneca vaccine. Seems to really promote the 12 week gap between doses for maximum efficacy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H1CLButseKM&ab_channel=Dr.JohnCampbell

Yes, more here:

https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2021/02/first-doses-first-new-information.html

Stark · 04-02-2021 12:55AM

I'm really hoping the Irish government/health service considers this approach. With 4.5 million doses due by end of June, we could have a good summer after all.

Water John · 04-02-2021 01:01AM

About 190K have recovered from Covid here. Does saving the 190K 2nd vaccine dose matter? I've an open mind on the matter.

Micky 32 · 04-02-2021 03:39AM

My apologies if this has been posted already. I was listening to Dr Campbell about the AZ vaccine and his summary of it.

28-90 days after the first jab it’s 76% protection against the illness. No hospitalizations after 22 days. Also after the first dose in the vaccinated group 67% were not testing positive, good news for transmission.

If the second jab is taken after 3 months the efficacy goes to 82% efficacy and again no hospitalizations.

markodaly · 04-02-2021 03:45AM

Stark wrote: »

I'm really hoping the Irish government/health service considers this approach. With 4.5 million doses due by end of June, we could have a good summer after all.

I don't understand this obsession with opening up by X date.

We have it backwards, we should be looking at opening up when we have control of the virus, that means single-digit daily case numbers. Until then forget about it.

Even when we get to that stage, foreign holidays and the like, maybe in 2022/23

Micky 32 · 04-02-2021 04:01AM

markodaly wrote: »

I don't understand this obsession with opening up by X date.

Any normal decent human being can totally understand the obsession to open up. people’s lives have been turned upside down. Grandparents can’t see their grandchildren. People are shut off from the outside world and their families. Stuck inside their homes. I deal with the public everyday and i see what this pandemic is doing to people. Whether it’s right or wrong to open up or not it’s totally understandable to a normal decent person why people crave the “obsession” you keep bringing up and berating people about every night you come on here :rolleyes:. It’s called hope, look it up in the dictionary.

markodaly · 04-02-2021 04:03AM

frozen3 wrote: »

Eastern countries and Baltic states would happily take Sputnik

They are not as stupid as us to believe that Russia bad, Europe goopropaganda

Russia have some of the best scientists in the world as do the Chinese

Ive seen this peddled before. Clearly, you have no idea how former Eastern Bloc countries view Russia. They would be even more hesitant against approving something from there, than us.

markodaly · 04-02-2021 04:04AM

Micky 32 wrote: »

Any normal decent human being can totally understand the obsession to open up. people’s lives have been turned upside down. Grandparents can’t see their grandchildren. People are shut off from the outside world and their families. Stuck inside their homes. I deal with the public everyday and i see what this pandemic is doing to people. Whether it’s right or wrong to open up or not it’s totally understandable to a normal decent person why people crave the “obsession” you keep bringing up every night you come on here :rolleyes:. It’s called hope, look it up in the dictionary.

Well, then look at the daily case numbers. Until they go down to a controlled benchmark, we will be and should be in lockdown till then.
Hope for the numbers to go down, not we will be open by x date and can have pints, because that is what we did twice before, with disastrous results.

Micky 32 · 04-02-2021 04:06AM

markodaly wrote: »

Well, then look at the daily case numbers. Until they go down to a controlled benchmark, we will be and should be in lockdown till then.
Hope for the numbers to go down, not we will be open by x date and can have pints, because that is what we did twice before, with disastrous results.

I’m quite aware of the numbers and I’m quite aware it’s not feasible to open up but you missed the point of my post which is not surprising.

markodaly · 04-02-2021 04:07AM

Gael23 wrote: »

HSE have now directed that over 70s are to get Pfizer vaccine. I guess this means the rollout plan needs to be redrawn

Younger people and those on the front line will get vaccinated quicker for sure now.

markodaly · 04-02-2021 04:09AM

Micky 32 wrote: »

I’m quite aware of the numbers and I’m quite aware it’s not feasible to open up but you missed the point of my post which is not surprising.

No, I get your point, but as I said, before, obsessing about a date in the calendar is the wrong way to look at it, because it will only give vested interest groups ammo to peddle to try and get x open by y date in the summer....

We have been there before.

The ONLY benchmark is the daily positive cases.

Micky 32 · 04-02-2021 04:11AM

markodaly wrote: »

No, I get your point, but as I said, before, obsessing about a date in the calendar is the wrong way to look at it, because it will only give vested interest groups ammo to peddle to try and get x open by y date in the summer....

We have been there before.

The ONLY benchmark is the daily positive cases.

No you still don’t get the point. I’m explaining to you the reason for the “obsession”. It’s called being human and a human trait called hope something you seem to not understand.. Even so there will be huge differences by the autumn if the roll out works out. The AZ vaccines is going to be a game changer.

markodaly · 04-02-2021 04:16AM

Micky 32 wrote: »

No you still don’t get the point. I’m explaining to you the reason for the “obsession”. It’s called being human and a human trait called hope something you seem to not understand.. Even so there will be huge differences by the autumn.

You can explain away, it doesn't mean people are correct to obsess about opening up the pubs for a session. Understandable perhaps, but correct? No, we have been there before.

Micky 32 · 04-02-2021 04:19AM

markodaly wrote: »

You can explain away, it doesn't mean people are correct to obsess about opening up the pubs for a session. Understandable perhaps, but correct? No, we have been there before.

There’s nothing to explain away. With peoples lives being turned upside down it’s quite understandable the obsession you keep banging on about. It doesn’t matter if it’s right or wrong it’s human nature and i don’t blame them.

BTW i don’t give a toss about pubs.

votecounts · 04-02-2021 07:07AM

hope this will be proven not to be linked to the vaccine but bad news all the same:
RIP

https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/fl-ne-miami-doctor-vaccine-death-20210107-afzysvqqjbgwnetcy5v6ec62py-story.html#click=https://t.co/z10lMvKPD2

Gael23 · 04-02-2021 07:18AM

votecounts wrote: »

hope this will be proven not to be linked to the vaccine but bad news all the same:
RIP

https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/fl-ne-miami-doctor-vaccine-death-20210107-afzysvqqjbgwnetcy5v6ec62py-story.html#click=https://t.co/z10lMvKPD2

Of course it’s not linked. It takes 21 days to protect you

lawred2 · 04-02-2021 08:32AM

markodaly wrote: »

I don't understand this obsession with opening up by X date.

We have it backwards, we should be looking at opening up when we have control of the virus, that means single-digit daily case numbers. Until then forget about it.

Even when we get to that stage, foreign holidays and the like, maybe in 2022/23

It's hardly an obsession to want to live a normal life.

MerlinSouthDub · 04-02-2021 09:05AM

Study launched on combining AZ and Pfizer vaccine, results expected in June.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-04/astra-pfizer-covid-vaccines-to-be-combined-in-oxford-trial?srnd=premium-europe

Irish Stones · 04-02-2021 09:27AM

Micky 32 wrote: »

Any normal decent human being can totally understand the obsession to open up. people’s lives have been turned upside down. Grandparents can’t see their grandchildren. People are shut off from the outside world and their families. Stuck inside their homes.

Don't worry. We're getting so used to live away from the world and others that this is going to become the normality, and we'll feel uncomfortable if things go back to something that may resemble the world before this.

I deal with the public everyday and i see what this pandemic is doing to people.

I'm genuinely interested in this matter. Can you please elaborate it in a few details?
From my point of view, not involved with public for my daily job, I have noticed that people are getting edgier, especially when queueing for shopping and the like.

Irish Stones · 04-02-2021 09:33AM

Paddygreen wrote: »

When are we going to get anal swabs guys? Has the minister even looked into the feasibility of anal swabbing yet? Dithering won’t win the war against Covid19 and more wonder weapons are needed at the front.If anal swabbing is more sensitive than nasal then that is exactly what we should be gearing up for going forward.

The nasal swab is painful enough to say that most people would turn down the anal swab

Happydays2020 · 04-02-2021 09:35AM

The AZ developments (who gets it and dosage) mean the strategy needs to be reshaped asap. Every threat is an opportunity. I expect there will be more AZ vaccines if we want them given a lot of EU countries have turned against them (in letter and in spirit).

Irish Stones · 04-02-2021 09:36AM

votecounts wrote: »

hope this will be proven not to be linked to the vaccine but bad news all the same:
RIP

https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/fl-ne-miami-doctor-vaccine-death-20210107-afzysvqqjbgwnetcy5v6ec62py-story.html#click=https://t.co/z10lMvKPD2

“Experts from all over the country were involved in his care,” she wrote. “No matter what they did, the platelets count refused to go up.”

Well, it sounds they weren't expert enough, they didn't even understand what it was.

dominatinMC · 04-02-2021 09:39AM

Irish Stones wrote: »

Don't worry. We're getting so used to live away from the world and others that this is going to become the normality, and we'll feel uncomfortable if things go back to something that may resemble the world before this

Ah lads, we're only into February but I think we have a candidate for most delusional post of 2021.

Irish Stones · 04-02-2021 09:42AM

Thierry Breton, Commissioner for the EU Internal Market, has stated that within two years Europe will have its own vaccine production capacity, thus becoming independent from non-UE pharma industries.

Reding the article behind lines, it seems a confirmation that vaccines will have a yearly recall.

dominatinMC · 04-02-2021 09:52AM

markodaly wrote: »

The ONLY benchmark is the daily positive cases.

No it's not, and never has been, but don't let the facts get in the way of your propensity to make a sweeping statement.
The ONLY benchmark is hospitalisations and/or deaths. If we had 30,000 cases a day (hypothetically obviously) but not one of those got sick, what use would your benchmark be? The fact is the restrictions have been imposed upon us to ensure the health system does not get overloaded. That has, is, and will be the determinant for restrictions. Once the vaccine programme has been successfully administered (whenever that is - and I agree we need restrictions up to then), then hospitalisations and/or deaths will fall off dramatically. We are already seeing early evidence of this in Israel. Furthermore, evidence is suggesting the vaccines reduce transmission, but that doesn't preclude the fact that we will still have some cases and some unfortunate people may even get sick. But the health system will not be overwhelmed, hence no justification for restrictions.
And before you cite variants, we've been through it, the vaccines still work. Simple as.

Gael23 · 04-02-2021 09:54AM

Irish Stones wrote: »

The nasal swab is painful enough to say that most people would turn down the anal swab

I’ve had it done as part of a health check and it’s not that bad. A weird sensation but it’s over in a second

On the vaccine plan, it looks like the over 80s are not too affected by the change of plan

is_that_so · 04-02-2021 10:15AM

markodaly wrote: »

No, I get your point, but as I said, before, obsessing about a date in the calendar is the wrong way to look at it, because it will only give vested interest groups ammo to peddle to try and get x open by y date in the summer....

We have been there before.

The ONLY benchmark is the daily positive cases.

There is a range of factors they look at

- Cases
- Positivity rates
- Community spread
- Level of hospitalisations
- ICU numbers
- 5, 7 and 14 day rates
- Deaths

The key ones which help them make decisions about levels are the hospitalisation and ICU numbers.

CIARAN_BOYLE · 04-02-2021 10:19AM

is_that_so wrote: »

There is a range of factors they look at

- Cases
- Positivity rates
- Community spread
- Level of hospitalisations
- ICU numbers
- 5, 7 and 14 day rates
- Deaths

The key ones which help them make decisions about levels are the hospitalisation and ICU numbers.

Its important to note that they use cases to predict future hospital admissions.

They use a formula based on the hospitalisation rate which flexes depending on the age groups where cases occur. Later when people are vaccinated but still positive cases it will further flex as these people will be less likely to be hospitalised.

1000 cases a day means x hospitalisations. It means they don't have to wait the time between diagnosis and hospitalisations.

Micky 32 · 04-02-2021 10:20AM

dominatinMC wrote: »

Ah lads, we're only into February but I think we have a candidate for most delusional post of 2021.

Definately, And that’s why i couldn’t be arsed replying to it.

COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 2 [Mod Warning - Post #1]

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