2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

Graham · 03-02-2021 10:14AM

Mod Note

accommodation & property......

MacronvFrugals · 03-02-2021 10:52AM

It seems like the shared-equity scheme will have suitability prioritization

First-time buyers will have to put their names down for each affordable development

The government is anxious, however, to avoid the build-up of a long waiting list for affordable housing similar to the existing waiting list for social housing. As a result, first-time buyers will have to apply separately for each new affordable housing development in their local council area, according to the draft details of the affordable housing bill.

Councils will seek to use the suitability grounds to ensure that one-bedroom apartments go to single people or couples with no children, while keeping larger homes for families with children.

A spokesman for the Department of Housing said people would be able to apply for affordable homes if they considered themselves eligible based on clearly communicated criteria. He said those who met the criteria would then be dealt with on a “first come, first served” basis.

https://www.businesspost.ie/houses/first-time-buyers-will-have-to-put-their-names-down-for-each-affordable-development-af894942?auth=login

PropQueries · 03-02-2021 11:12AM

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

It seems like the shared-equity scheme will have suitability prioritization

First-time buyers will have to put their names down for each affordable development

https://www.businesspost.ie/houses/first-time-buyers-will-have-to-put-their-names-down-for-each-affordable-development-af894942?auth=login

Since they appear to be pushing ahead with this HTB scheme, can we assume they have the Central Bank silently on board in relation to pretending this up to c. €100k in additional borrowings doesn't exist.

If so, it kind of makes a mockery of the banks using details of small personal loans, car loans, how many kids a potential borrower has etc. when making mortgage approval decisions IMO

To me, it's especially annoying given that the government now has proof that three bed A-rated houses can be delivered (with profit margin) in Dublin for under c. €200k, which to me means it's a government loan aimed at just keep existing land prices up IMO

fliball123 · 03-02-2021 12:00PM

PropQueries wrote: »

I would love to argue this all day but I'm not allowed to include the other two big sources of housing supply in the market:

1. The c. 90,000+ vacant residential properties in Ireland recorded in the latest GeoDirectory report (equivalent to c. 5 years new build housing supply), or

2. The number of properties entering probate each year.

In relation to the number of potential probate sales that could be sitting and waiting ready to re-enter the market each year going forward, the only reference I can find is by Barry Cowen in the Dail in 2018, where he stated:

"Some 30,000 people pass away every year in Ireland with up to 86% of them owning a home. This potentially leaves some 26,000 homes affected by these delays in probate.

These waiting times have a big impact on the loved ones left behind. I am calling on the government to assist in streamlining the probate system so that waiting times and legal costs can be reduced."

Link to the Barry Cowen probate estimate here: https://www.thejournal.ie/probate-2-3870061-Feb2018/

Both the above can potentially double the supply of housing available for new families entering the market each year going forward.

Both the above sources of housing supply are already built and waiting for new families to occupy them. The only question (IMO) is when will they re-enter the market?

OK so do you believe that the amount of FTB would be looking at turning their noses up at 30k?? Regardless of whatever other supply is coming on stream the vast majority of FTB so (20300 FTBs got mortgage drawdown in 2020) and house builds are estimated at 18.300. So dont keep saying that 2020 new builds need to be filled as they are already over subscribed 2k+

You also dismiss the houses that have been demolished are at about 6% and yet again year on year our birth rate has out passed our death rate for the last 100 years..Why do you keep talking about the death rates when we have more people living in this country each year for the last 100 . I dont understand it. I have pointed this out over and over.

Have you any reason to explain why the 90k houses from GeoDirectory are not part of the sales or rental stock? Also when was the last GeoDirectory study on houses empty?

Just adding to this figures for the help to buy for the first 10 months of 2020 was at 16412 and we know that things have really ramped up in Q4 in 2020 so your 18.3k homes for 2020 are gone there are no longer part of the supply

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/personal-finance/record-numbers-of-first-time-buyers-apply-for-help-to-buy-1.4431078

As for 2nd hand stock just a minute ago I checked myhome and property available for sale is gone below 12k so it would kind of fly in the face of 90k houses being owned and empty in the country. Not to mention that there are only 3998 properties for rent on daft. Where are the other 65k empty properties?

Timing belt · 03-02-2021 12:04PM

PropQueries wrote: »

Since they appear to be pushing ahead with this HTB scheme, can we assume they have the Central Bank silently on board in relation to pretending this up to c. €100k in additional borrowings doesn't exist.

If so, it kind of makes a mockery of the banks using details of small personal loans, car loans, how many kids a potential borrower has etc. when making mortgage approval decisions IMO

To me, it's especially annoying given that the government now has proof that three bed A-rated houses can be delivered (with profit margin) in Dublin for under c. €200k, which to me means it's a government loan aimed at just keep existing land prices up IMO

The central bank of always acknowledged that the LTI and LTV limit impacts peoples ability to get on the property ladder so I am not surprised that they don't have an issue with it as they already allow the following:
• LTV limit (FTBs: 90% with 5% of new mortgages above the limit, SSBs: 80% with 20% of new mortgages above the limit, BTL: 70% with 10% of new mortgages above the limit)
• LTI limit (3.5 with the following share of new mortgages above this limit: FTBs: 20%, SSBs:10%)

The only difference is that the banks won't make the decisions.

fliball123 · 03-02-2021 12:12PM

Timing belt wrote: »

The central bank of always acknowledged that the LTI and LTV limit impacts peoples ability to get on the property ladder so I am not surprised that they don't have an issue with it as they already allow the following:
• LTV limit (FTBs: 90% with 5% of new mortgages above the limit, SSBs: 80% with 20% of new mortgages above the limit, BTL: 70% with 10% of new mortgages above the limit)
• LTI limit (3.5 with the following share of new mortgages above this limit: FTBs: 20%, SSBs:10%)

The only difference is that the banks won't make the decisions.

The other thing to consider is most other EU countries people are allowed borrow more than the 3.5 times your salary

Browney7 · 03-02-2021 12:13PM

fliball123 wrote: »

OK so do you believe that the amount of FTB would be looking at turning their noses up at 30k?? Regardless of whatever other supply is coming on stream the vast majority of FTB so (20300 FTBs got mortgage drawdown in 2020) and house builds are estimated at 18.300. So dont keep saying that 2020 new builds need to be filled as they are already over subscribed 2k+

You also dismiss the houses that have been demolished are at about 6% and yet again year on year our birth rate has out passed our death rate for the last 100 years..Why do you keep talking about the death rates when we have more people living in this country each year for the last 100 . I dont understand it. I have pointed this out over and over.

Have you any reason to explain why the 90k houses from GeoDirectory are not part of the sales or rental stock? Also when was the last GeoDirectory study on houses empty?

Just adding to this figures for the help to buy for the first 10 months of 2020 was at 16412 and we know that things have really ramped up in Q4 in 2020 so your 18.3k homes for 2020 are gone there are no longer part of the supply

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/personal-finance/record-numbers-of-first-time-buyers-apply-for-help-to-buy-1.4431078

As for 2nd hand stock just a minute ago I checked myhome and property available for sale is gone below 12k so it would kind of fly in the face of 90k houses being owned and empty in the country. Not to mention that there are only 3998 properties for rent on daft. Where are the other 65k empty properties?

18770 FTB drawdowns as per BPFI stats in 2020. 6350 were for new builds and 12420 were for secondhand. Looking at the trends, since 2018, 30-33% of FTB mortgage drawdowns each quarter have been for new builds (which I assume includes self builds). BPFI shows 8529 drawdowns for new purchase for FTB, Mover purchase and Buy to let combined. Of course there will be cash sales on top of this

HansKroenke · 03-02-2021 12:18PM

Timing belt wrote: »

They can justify their charges as they are protecting your capital by actively trading etc. If they just bought bonds it would not protect your capital as would have negative yield.... If they invest in the stock market the P/E ratio's are so high they will not get you any meaningful return so will need to actively trade just to maintain the capital that you have invested. This is the reason that I am bullish on property at the moment as there will be a demand for property as this still provides a return. Longer term as more people invest the lower the future returns will be as the supply of rental properties will increase.

My concern would be that if we stay in a low interest rate environment for to long then will people bother to invest or put money away in a pension. We can already see that in the banking sector people stopped putting money on term for the extra interest as it was so small so could we see something similar with pensions and if we did where would the money go. Would it be into a perceived safer asset such as property that will provide a modest return or will it be used for more risky investments such as investing in rocket fueled stocks or Crypto in an effort to see a return.

At the moment it looks like we will be in this low rate environment for some time to come as there is little signs of any inflation in the CPI that would push rates higher which is worrying as the longer it goes on the more focus will be put on cost cutting by companies.

A bit of inflation to deflate property prices and ensure a more sustainable future for people with their pensions seems like the policy which should be pursued?

Villa05 · 03-02-2021 12:25PM

fliball123 wrote:

OK so do you believe that the amount of FTB would be looking at turning their noses up at 30k?? Regardless of whatever other supply is coming on stream the vast majority of FTB so (20300 FTBs got mortgage drawdown in 2020) and house builds are estimated at 18.300. So dont keep saying that 2020 new builds need to be filled as they are already over subscribed 2k+

OK so you believe there is no affordability issue yet the ftb grant has been increased from 20 to 30k

Having that policy deemed to be insufficient, the State is now introducing a shared ownership scheme allowing up to an extra 100k towards the purchase of a new home

Having seen the advise given to the government against these schemes, it is now clear that the Construction industry federation is in total control of housing policy and milking the state for all its worth

MacronvFrugals · 03-02-2021 12:31PM

Developers must now be looking to Shenzhen for ideas....

Developer Plans to Use Thermal-Imaging Cameras in Co-Living Complex

Developers aspiring to convert the big old art deco-inspired Hendrons building at Broadstone to co-living have plans for how they would manage Covid-19 in the complex.

One measure? Thermal-imaging cameras that would monitor residents’ temperatures, says a planning document.

“Anyone displaying a raised temperature will be advised to isolate for a period,” says the management plan, submitted as part of the planning application for the site.

https://dublininquirer.com/2021/02/03/developer-plans-to-use-thermal-imaging-cameras-in-co-living-complex

fliball123 · 03-02-2021 12:34PM

Villa05 wrote: »

OK so you believe there is no affordability issue yet the ftb grant has been increased from 20 to 30k

Having that policy deemed to be insufficient, the State is now introducing a shared ownership scheme allowing up to an extra 100k towards the purchase of a new home

Having seen the advise given to the government against these schemes, it is now clear that the Construction industry federation is in total control of housing policy and milking the state for all its worth

I think that there are certain parts of the country where you have to pay a premium I have said this time and time again, if you want to live somewhere where others also want to then you will pay a higher price. about half the properties on myhome in this country are affordable at the current limitations of 3.5 salary and 10% deposit on the AIW.

Do you think we should all be able to afford living in leafy foxrock or out overlooking the sea there in Howth? The same rules of 3.5 salary does not exist in most other EU countries and it is hindering some getting a property where they want. If they wanted they could buy in Leitrim, Roscommon, Sligo, Westmeath, Carlow the list goes on and on without any problem. The areas Dublin and surrounding counties, Galway, Cork are going to require a higher cost as people want to live there. This is the same all over the globe its not unique to Ireland.

fliball123 · 03-02-2021 12:39PM

Timing belt wrote: »

The central bank of always acknowledged that the LTI and LTV limit impacts peoples ability to get on the property ladder so I am not surprised that they don't have an issue with it as they already allow the following:
• LTV limit (FTBs: 90% with 5% of new mortgages above the limit, SSBs: 80% with 20% of new mortgages above the limit, BTL: 70% with 10% of new mortgages above the limit)
• LTI limit (3.5 with the following share of new mortgages above this limit: FTBs: 20%, SSBs:10%)

The only difference is that the banks won't make the decisions.

Cool yeah looking at that those figures there and the point I am making and to Propsquery is that the number of FTBs so basically people coming onto the ladder is greater than the number of new properties completed for 2020. Yet this poster will repeat that all of 2019 and 2020s new stock is still there available waiting to be snapped up.

HopsAndJumps · 03-02-2021 12:40PM

I see the houses in Ledwill park have gone up again. Some of the 3 bed semi's up to €360k! In an estate with much more than the norm of social.

Those houses were 330k a few months back.

PropQueries · 03-02-2021 01:01PM

fliball123 wrote: »

I think that there are certain parts of the country where you have to pay a premium I have said this time and time again, if you want to live somewhere where others also want to then you will pay a higher price. about half the properties on myhome in this country are affordable at the current limitations of 3.5 salary and 10% deposit on the AIW.

Do you think we should all be able to afford living in leafy foxrock or out overlooking the sea there in Howth? The same rules of 3.5 salary does not exist in most other EU countries and it is hindering some getting a property where they want. If they wanted they could buy in Leitrim, Roscommon, Sligo, Westmeath, Carlow the list goes on and on without any problem. The areas Dublin and surrounding counties, Galway, Cork are going to require a higher cost as people want to live there. This is the same all over the globe its not unique to Ireland.

Apparently, without the proposed HTB, potential buyers have no intention of paying this "premium" for new builds in many areas i.e. the developers would have to leave them empty basically forever without the proposed HTB.

But, we do know that developers will drop their prices and take a hit to their projected profit margins if HTB is not implemented e.g. Glenveagh dropping their apartment prices by c. €100k in Marina Village last September prior to a fund buying them all up a few week back.

We also know, as I stated previously, that the government now has proof that three bed A-rated houses can be delivered (with profit margin) in Dublin for under c. €200k.

This "premium price" people believe buyers should pay for new builds in many areas doesn't really exist in many areas, as without HTB, these residential units wouldn't be selling at current asking prices. If they were, why bring in HTB?

The only purpose of HTB appears to be to keep land/site prices artificially high as the developers have already proven they are willing to accept lower profit margins in order to sell their units without HTB.

It also raises the question. If house prices remain static at current levels for the next 5 years and the Government pulls the HTB due to the obvious budget difficulties that will exist here in 5 years, those houses funded through the HTB scheme will be worth, at a minimum, €100k less in 5 years time than today.

awec · 03-02-2021 01:04PM

Villa05 wrote: »

OK so you believe there is no affordability issue yet the ftb grant has been increased from 20 to 30k

Having that policy deemed to be insufficient, the State is now introducing a shared ownership scheme allowing up to an extra 100k towards the purchase of a new home

Having seen the advise given to the government against these schemes, it is now clear that the Construction industry federation is in total control of housing policy and milking the state for all its worth

People should stop comparing HTB and the new scheme. HTB was a grant, there was absolutely no reason for someone not to take it.

The new scheme will be money that eventually needs to be paid back, and / or represent an ongoing cost to the recipient. It will only be an appealing proposition to a subset of potential buyers.

It will increase the number of buyers in the market, but it's not going to mean the people currently looking at 400k houses are suddenly going to buy 500k houses.

Mic 1972 · 03-02-2021 01:07PM

What's the point in increasing the number of buyers while there are not enough properties to buy?

L1011 · 03-02-2021 01:08PM

PropQueries wrote: »

So, if the average time between a sale being agreed and eventually completed in the UK is 22 weeks (which is c. 6 months) and I assume it must be longer in Ireland, what time period are the latest PPR sales prices in Ireland really corresponding to?

You're rounding up for effect again. 22 weeks is ~5 months. Please stop doing this.

Why do you assume its longer in Ireland?

PropQueries wrote: »

Would it be too far fetched to suggest that many of the prices being recorded on the PPR today are from sales agreed before the initial lockdown back in March 2020?

It would be.

awec · 03-02-2021 01:09PM

Mic 1972 wrote: »

What's the point in increasing the number of buyers while there are not enough properties to buy?

To provide a market to encourage development.

Mic 1972 · 03-02-2021 01:12PM

awec wrote: »

To provide a market to encourage development.

My understanding is that the market has slowed down due to Covid, not due to lack of demand. Are we saying that there is no demand?

MacronvFrugals · 03-02-2021 01:15PM

awec wrote: »

To provide a market to encourage development.

The absurdity of a group of lobbyists giving us an idea of what they want and the minister being like "lets go with that"

Especially when actual state bodies have concerns regarding the scheme

fliball123 · 03-02-2021 01:18PM

PropQueries wrote: »

Apparently, without the proposed HTB, potential buyers have no intention of paying this "premium" for new builds in many areas i.e. the developers would have to leave them empty basically forever without the proposed HTB.

But, we do know that developers will drop their prices and take a hit to their projected profit margins if HTB is not implemented e.g. Glenveagh dropping their apartment prices by c. €100k in Marina Village last September prior to a fund buying them all up a few week back.

We also know, as I stated previously, that the government now has proof that three bed A-rated houses can be delivered (with profit margin) in Dublin for under c. €200k.

This "premium price" people believe buyers should pay for new builds in many areas doesn't really exist in many areas, as without HTB, these residential units wouldn't be selling at current asking prices. If they were, why bring in HTB?

The only purpose of HTB appears to be to keep land/site prices artificially high as the developers have already proven they are willing to accept lower profit margins in order to sell their units without HTB.

It also raises the question. If house prices remain static at current levels for the next 5 years and the Government pulls the HTB due to the obvious budget difficulties that will exist here in 5 years, those houses funded through the HTB scheme will be worth, at a minimum, €100k less in 5 years time than today.

Have you any proof of your first paragraph?

On your second paragraph have you seen the price increase that Gleanveagh put on Lidwell park?? Sometimes developers put too high or too low a price on any given development as can be seen by this company doing both at the same time

Have you a link to your third paragraph I was almost sure that this was contested by other posters with the price of land? If you have I would be interested in seeing it. I mean if you had a big 9 Bed Mansion swimming pool, tennis courts etc in the backa$$ of Leitrim, that same Mansion would cost maybe 5/6 times more if it was overlooking the sea there in Dalkey. So if it cost the same to build both why such a differential. The answer is the price of land in areas that are desirable for people to live in.

4th paragraph I never said people had to pay a premium for a "new build" I said a premium would have to paid for living somewhere that lots of other people want to live nothing more nothing less.

5th paragraph any proof?

6th paragraph already prices have been rising from the the last few months of 2020 so prices are not staying stable and if one thing can be seen in this country is that something given to a large group of people who feel they have no chance of getting on the ladder and then its taken away there will be an absolute sh1tstorm for what ever government do it. You only have to look at history of things like our welfare rates as well as our public sector (not so long ago) who were able to do things like successfully bargain more money in their wage for a perk of time off for them putting the paycheck in their bank account even do they had not been doing it for years ad money was payed straight into their account. What is given is very very hard to take away at a political level.

What budget difficulties do you see we have put another 20/30 billion onto our debt by the end of the year surely the reorganization of the existing 210billion debt at a lower rate will offset a lot of this 20/30 billion which was borrowed at 0%. I believe the Irish and Europeans have learned that austerity does not work as can be seen back in the 2008 crash.

Mic 1972 · 03-02-2021 01:18PM

Instead of resuming/increasing construction they are injecting more money into the market to inflate prices of existing stock.

awec · 03-02-2021 01:21PM

Mic 1972 wrote: »

My understanding is that the market has slowed down due to Covid, not due to lack of demand. Are we saying that there is no demand?

No, I am saying the government are taking steps to help more people buy a house.

This increases the number of potential buyers, increasing demand, making it more attractive for developers to keep building.

The latest scheme is more targeted toward low earners. HTB was proportionally beneficial depending on how much you earned.

Villa05 · 03-02-2021 01:23PM

fliball123 wrote:

I think that there are certain parts of the country where you have to pay a premium I have said this time and time again, if you want to live somewhere where others also want to then you will pay a higher price. about half the properties on myhome in this country are affordable at the current limitations of 3.5 salary and 10% deposit on the AIW.

I don't disagree, however entire geographical locations should not fall into this bracket. Dublin needs below average income workers, so state schemes should be focused on increasing supply of affordable homes to cater for essential workers, affordable rents (yet cost neutral or profitable for the state). Affordable rents helps negate the need for buyer grants and reduces HAP costs. Increased supply will also dampen price appreciation

Tax payers money should never be used to increase/prop up prices that are already out of reach for most people in the country. This is what happens when the industry is dictating policy

PropQueries · 03-02-2021 01:27PM

awec wrote: »

To provide a market to encourage development.

HTB won't encourage development by the bigger developers as the bigger players e.g. Cairn Homes, Glenveagh etc. purchased their landbanks for a pittance many years ago.

Cairn Homes stated last September that their average site cost was c. €30k and that many of their sites were purchased for c. €15k.

That means, given that construction wages and materials haven't increased by zimbabwean levels of inflation over the past 5 years that they could easily sell their new built houses today for about 20% more than 2015 prices and still walk away with a higher profit margin than in 2015.

If they were willing to accept a lower profit margin in 2015, what has changed, that they now require a higher profit margin with this higher profit margin being paid directly by the state i.e. me?

The only outcome from HTB will be to increase developer profit margins and keep site costs artificially high.

And once HTB is removed (obvious due to budget constraints in 5 years time), any house purchased under HTB will be worth a minimum c. €100k less in 5 years time than today.

fliball123 · 03-02-2021 01:28PM

Villa05 wrote: »

I don't disagree, however entire geographical locations should not fall into this bracket. Dublin needs below average income workers, so state schemes should be focused on increasing supply of affordable homes to cater for essential workers, affordable rents (yet cost neutral or profitable for the state). Affordable rents helps negate the need for buyer grants and reduces HAP costs. Increased supply will also dampen price appreciation

Tax payers money should never be used to increase/prop up prices that are already out of reach for most people in the country. This is what happens when the industry is dictating policy

This problem exists in every major city in the world. So if the gov did remove all housing support HTB etc do you not think that the state would then have an additional burden to house these people on top of the cohort who will never be able to house themselves for one reason or another. On the flip side if banks were told you can loan what ever and to whoever your want as in a return to pre 2008 mortgage lending practices do you think taken both the supports and the restrictions away what way do you think prices would go? As both the supports and the restrictions are manipulating the market one for prices rising and the other prices dropping

awec · 03-02-2021 01:34PM

PropQueries wrote: »

HTB won't encourage development by the bigger developers as the bigger players e.g. Cairn Homes, Glenveagh etc. purchased their landbanks for a pittance many years ago.

Cairn Homes stated last September that their average site cost was c. €30k and that many of their sites were purchased for c. €15k.

That means, given that construction wages and materials haven't increased by zimbabwean levels of inflation over the past 5 years that they could easily sell their new built houses today for about 20% more than 2015 prices and still walk away with a higher profit margin than in 2015.

If they were willing to accept a lower profit margin in 2015, what has changed, that they now require a higher profit margin with this higher profit margin being paid directly by the state i.e. me?

The only outcome from HTB will be to increase developer profit margins and keep site costs artificially high.

And once HTB is removed (obvious due to budget constraints in 5 years time), any house purchased under HTB will be worth a minimum c. €100k less in 5 years time than today.

Firstly, I really wish you'd stop posting pure supposition as if it was fact.

The whole point of HTB was to increase developer margins to encourage them to build more. It was never really a secret. People who use it are taxpayers too. You can only get back what you've paid in yourself.

On the one hand, you say that HTB does nothing except increase developer margins, and on the other you said higher margins don't encourage them to build more. Somehow in your head this adds up.

Mic 1972 · 03-02-2021 01:37PM

awec wrote: »

No, I am saying the government are taking steps to help more people buy a house.

This increases the number of potential buyers, increasing demand, making it more attractive for developers to keep building.

The latest scheme is more targeted toward low earners. HTB was proportionally beneficial depending on how much you earned.

I understand what you are saying, but the current demand is already higher than offer. Developers aren't building for reasons other than lack of demand

awec · 03-02-2021 01:41PM

Mic 1972 wrote: »

I understand what you are saying, but the current demand is already higher than offer. Developers aren't building but reasons other than lack of demand

Current demand is high but lower incomes are finding it difficult to get in on the action. The latest scheme is an attempt by the government to give lower incomes a leg up.

There won't be too many middle to high earners interested in giving the government a stake in their house.

Browney7 · 03-02-2021 01:49PM

HopsAndJumps wrote: »

I see the houses in Ledwill park have gone up again. Some of the 3 bed semi's up to €360k! In an estate with much more than the norm of social.

Those houses were 330k a few months back.

Can you define a few months back? Before July when the HTB went to 10% of property value up to 30k for example? Is the square footage the same?

If so, the purchaser is entitled to 13.5k more of a refund back so that immediately gets you to 343.5k. plus the demand for these houses was swelled by virtue of people who only had access to less than 5% of the purchase price in cash now being brought into the "mortgage approved" category thus increasing the number of people ready to buy. Of course the price was going to go up. I believe when the CSO updates the year end new build and existing dwelling indices (updated quarterly) we will continue to see a divergence in the rates of price growth for new builds and existing properties.

2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1