2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

awec

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/technology/microsoft-to-create-200-digital-sales-jobs-at-its-dublin-operation-1.4473189

200 new jobs announced this morning by Microsoft. Along with that Google news last week. It seems that despite continued assertions to the contrary on this thread Ireland is still seen as a viable investment for companies and this will have a knock on effect on the property market here.

Marius34

PropQueries wrote: »

I've seen very little media coverage of lots and lots of people queuing for rental accommodation in Dublin over the past 3 years.

When all these covid workers do return (if that many truly left because of covid and are indeed returning), we'll have built about c. 35,000 - 40,000 (new build supply over 2020 and 2021 inclusive) new additional units in Ireland by the time they return so they can take up that accommodation IMO.

Many of these covid workers who have left would also have been working in the tourism, construction etc. sectors and both these are not returning to pre-covid levels for at least another couple of years so these workers won't be returning either, so there will be plenty of rental accommodation ready and available to any covid-19 workers returning to Ireland next year IMO

Just to add: See how I didn't add in all that additional supply from properties entering probate over 2020 and 2021 as well.

Be prepared for any excuse and complains, for your total failure on your forecast.

Villa05

Hubertj wrote:

I think it offers families cost effective accommodation thereby enabling them to take holidays they might otherwise be able to afford. I don’t think it is right for that to be taken away from them..

Is a cost effective holiday more important than other families trying live their daily lives out of a hotel room at great cost to the state?


One of the nicest family breaks we had was a week in student accommodation in Galway, cheaper than air bnb also.

There are plenty of alternatives? Managing the stock we have correctly would answer alot of issues

Browney7

fliball123 wrote: »

Actually I will link so just to be sure as I can see you coming back with an IMO so figures and facts show us that..YOu can see in the link attached that 35617 mortgages drawn down in 2020 and 57% of these were FTB now I have no figures for this but I would assume a high % of FTBs would be buying a new build due to the government incentives to do so 30k off new builds is a massive amount of cash to turn your nose up at. So in numbers 20302 (approx) have taken a house that was a new build. So that is more than the highest projected figures of build completions for 2020 which was 18,300 and I think the number of completions will be less than the 18,300 but we will find out soon what the build completion levels were for 2020 (I think was the figure latest figure given as an estimate of new builds completed in 2020)

Mortgage drawdowns 2020
https://blackbee.ie/latest-economic-market-update-1st-february-2021/

So can you stop going on about there being 35k houses available when they are being snapped up quicker than they are being built

Where were those FTBs residing before they purchased do you think - at home with parents so reasonable to assume no bed spaces freed up but if they were renting privately they would have had to vacate a property somewhere.

I believe the drawdown stats point out whether people bought new or second hand also.

I don't believe Props was advocating that 20000 houses were going to be made available for rental because they were delivered

MacronvFrugals

Villa05 wrote: »

Is a cost effective holiday more important than other families trying live their daily lives out of a hotel room at great cost to the state?


One of the nicest family breaks we had was a week in student accommodation in Galway, cheaper than air bnb also.

There are plenty of alternatives? Managing the stock we have correctly would answer alot of issues

You're trying to appeal with empathy when the counter argument is "me,me,me convenience!"

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

Actually I will link so just to be sure as I can see you coming back with an IMO so figures and facts show us that..YOu can see in the link attached that 35617 mortgages drawn down in 2020 and 57% of these were FTB now I have no figures for this but I would assume a high % of FTBs would be buying a new build due to the government incentives to do so 30k off new builds is a massive amount of cash to turn your nose up at. So in numbers 20302 (approx) have taken a house that was a new build. So that is more than the highest projected figures of build completions for 2020 which was 18,300 and I think the number of completions will be less than the 18,300 but we will find out soon what the build completion levels were for 2020 (I think was the figure latest figure given as an estimate of new builds completed in 2020)

Mortgage drawdowns 2020
https://blackbee.ie/latest-economic-market-update-1st-february-2021/

So can you stop going on about there being 35k houses available when they are being snapped up quicker than they are being built

I would love to argue this all day but I'm not allowed to include the other two big sources of housing supply in the market:

1. The c. 90,000+ vacant residential properties in Ireland recorded in the latest GeoDirectory report (equivalent to c. 5 years new build housing supply), or

2. The number of properties entering probate each year.

In relation to the number of potential probate sales that could be sitting and waiting ready to re-enter the market each year going forward, the only reference I can find is by Barry Cowen in the Dail in 2018, where he stated:

"Some 30,000 people pass away every year in Ireland with up to 86% of them owning a home. This potentially leaves some 26,000 homes affected by these delays in probate.

These waiting times have a big impact on the loved ones left behind. I am calling on the government to assist in streamlining the probate system so that waiting times and legal costs can be reduced."

Link to the Barry Cowen probate estimate here: https://www.thejournal.ie/probate-2-3870061-Feb2018/

Both the above can potentially double the supply of housing available for new families entering the market each year going forward.

Both the above sources of housing supply are already built and waiting for new families to occupy them. The only question (IMO) is when will they re-enter the market?

MacronvFrugals

Today's IT - "We’re building more apartments, but for foreign investors"


Genuinely surprised at the home ownership rate, i thought we'd be way higher than the rest of Europe

At the last census the home ownership rate in the Republic was 67.6 per cent, lower than the EU average of 69.2 per cent. It was as high as 79 per cent in the 1990s, but a surge in property values – the period 2008-2012 aside – has changed this.

And the Government’s move to introduce a shared equity scheme and extend the help-to-buy scheme for first-time buyers – which aim to get more people on the property ladder – is unlikely to arrest this slide.

1.4473186https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/we-re-building-more-apartments-but-for-foreign-investors-1.4473186

hometruths

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

You're trying to appeal with empathy when the counter argument is "me,me,me convenience!"

It was bonkers enough that pre Covid in Dublin we had Dubliners who were priced out of houses staying in hotels and tourists who were priced out of hotels staying in houses!

Now during a pandemic, when we have no tourists, some posters like Marius believe we should keep the properties empty, keep those who cannot afford housing in hotels, so that when those who can afford housing when they return can easily obtain it!

Utter madness!

Marius34 wrote: »

So we push landlords in Dublin to rent-out to all the unemployed/HAP/homeless during Covid. And for workers returning to Dublin after covid, let make spend their work days looking for a place to live, with 100 hard working people competing at the single viewing.

Here's an idea. Those who can afford it can stay in a hotel whilst they look for accommodation when they return to Dublin if it takes a little time to find.

Apart from the total lack of empathy, Marius' theory makes absolutely no economic sense for the country.

The taxpayer should be not be paying to house the poorest in hotels so the well off are not inconvenienced in seeking accommodation.

Bass Reeves

schmittel wrote: »

I think again, like many, you misunderstand the market.

If it is not their PPR and it is an RPZ it is illegal to use if for STLs for any length of time without planning permission.

So it would be illegal to put a house up for rent for 5 months only.

hometruths

Bass Reeves wrote: »

So it would be illegal to put a house up for rent for 5 months only.

No.

JimmyVik

Bass Reeves wrote: »

So it would be illegal to put a house up for rent for 5 months only.

I dont think that would be illegal at all.
But you might have a problem getting the tenant out if they decide 5 months isnt enough for them at the end. 5 months might turn into 2.5 years, or more even. And paying rent would be optional at that stage.

fliball123

Browney7 wrote: »

Where were those FTBs residing before they purchased do you think - at home with parents so reasonable to assume no bed spaces freed up but if they were renting privately they would have had to vacate a property somewhere.

I believe the drawdown stats point out whether people bought new or second hand also.

I don't believe Props was advocating that 20000 houses were going to be made available for rental because they were delivered

I was drawing a correlation between FTB mortgage draw downs which are over the amount of New builds for 2020. Not sure where they came from if they were rentals or from mam and dads. if rentals then that now vacent property would of been added to the list of sale or for rent. What he keeps spouting is that there is no one to take up the 18k houses (still open to debate until final figures are in) built in 2020 when mortgage drawdowns for FTBs are up over 20k

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

I would love to argue this all day but I'm not allowed to include the other two big sources of housing supply in the market:

1. The c. 90,000+ vacant residential properties in Ireland recorded in the latest GeoDirectory report (equivalent to c. 5 years new build housing supply), or

2. The number of properties entering probate each year.

In relation to the number of potential probate sales that could be sitting and waiting ready to re-enter the market each year going forward, the only reference I can find is by Barry Cowen in the Dail in 2018, where he stated:

"Some 30,000 people pass away every year in Ireland with up to 86% of them owning a home. This potentially leaves some 26,000 homes affected by these delays in probate.

These waiting times have a big impact on the loved ones left behind. I am calling on the government to assist in streamlining the probate system so that waiting times and legal costs can be reduced."

Link to the Barry Cowen probate estimate here: https://www.thejournal.ie/probate-2-3870061-Feb2018/

Both the above can potentially double the supply of housing available for new families entering the market each year going forward.

Both the above sources of housing supply are already built and waiting for new families to occupy them. The only question (IMO) is when will they re-enter the market?

OK so do you believe that the amount of FTB would be looking at turning their noses up at 30k?? Regardless of whatever other supply is coming on stream the vast majority of FTB so (20300 FTBs got mortgage drawdown in 2020) and house builds are estimated at 18.300. So dont keep saying that 2020 new builds need to be filled as they are already over subscribed 2k+

You also dismiss the houses that have been demolished are at about 6% and yet again year on year our birth rate has out passed our death rate for the last 100 years..Why do you keep talking about the death rates when we have more people living in this country each year for the last 100 . I dont understand it. I have pointed this out over and over.

Have you any reason to explain why the 90k houses from GeoDirectory are not part of the sales or rental stock? Also when was the last GeoDirectory study on houses empty?

Just adding to this figures for the help to buy for the first 10 months of 2020 was at 16412 and we know that things have really ramped up in Q4 in 2020 so your 18.3k homes for 2020 are gone there are no longer part of the supply

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/personal-finance/record-numbers-of-first-time-buyers-apply-for-help-to-buy-1.4431078

As for 2nd hand stock just a minute ago I checked myhome and property available for sale is gone below 12k so it would kind of fly in the face of 90k houses being owned and empty in the country. Not to mention that there are only 3998 properties for rent on daft. Where are the other 65k empty properties?

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

Is a cost effective holiday more important than other families trying live their daily lives out of a hotel room at great cost to the state?


One of the nicest family breaks we had was a week in student accommodation in Galway, cheaper than air bnb also.

There are plenty of alternatives? Managing the stock we have correctly would answer alot of issues

That makes no sense. When booking an Airbnb how does someone know if it is used full time as an Airbnb? I’d say they don’t.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

It was bonkers enough that pre Covid in Dublin we had Dubliners who were priced out of houses staying in hotels and tourists who were priced out of hotels staying in houses!

Now during a pandemic, when we have no tourists, some posters like Marius believe we should keep the properties empty, keep those who cannot afford housing in hotels, so that when those who can afford housing when they return can easily obtain it!

Utter madness!



Here's an idea. Those who can afford it can stay in a hotel whilst they look for accommodation when they return to Dublin if it takes a little time to find.

Apart from the total lack of empathy, Marius' theory makes absolutely no economic sense for the country.

The taxpayer should be not be paying to house the poorest in hotels so the well off are not inconvenienced in seeking accommodation.

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/70-of-airbnbs-back-on-long-term-rental-market-says-dublin-city-council-1044141.html

So if they are saying 70% are back in rental market how do they know? I thought people said councils don’t monitor / enforce?

TheSheriff

awec wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/technology/microsoft-to-create-200-digital-sales-jobs-at-its-dublin-operation-1.4473189

200 new jobs announced this morning by Microsoft. Along with that Google news last week. It seems that despite continued assertions to the contrary on this thread Ireland is still seen as a viable investment for companies and this will have a knock on effect on the property market here.

Great news to see this.

As you noted, months ago it was implied on this thread the gig was up, the MNCs were leaving.

Yet another unfounded assertion and its impact on the property market, theres a new one rolled out daily at this stage.

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/70-of-airbnbs-back-on-long-term-rental-market-says-dublin-city-council-1044141.html

So if they are saying 70% are back in rental market how do they know? I thought people said councils don’t monitor / enforce?

That is good news if true. Good point you make how do they know? A year ago they told us it was impossible to monitor!

Mr Fallon says the Council wrote to all of the property owners, after which between 60 and 70 per cent said they had reverted to long-term use, supplying tenancy agreement to confirm this.

The cynic in hopes that there is someone smart enough in DCC to cross check these tenancy agreements with PTRB.

Cynic in me also hopes they've noted how many of these are for 6 months or less!

Villa05

PropQueries wrote:

It looks like the cost of delivering housing by DCC is being seriously looked into. There's not much reporting on this in other media outlets so I would wonder how serious they will be at looking into the reasons in this audit.

The person pulling the strings at DCC was in charge of Limerick regeneration. His time in Limerick was controversial to say the least
It is surprising that he is still working in housing

MacronvFrugals wrote:

You're trying to appeal with empathy when the counter argument is "me,me,me convenience!"

Apologies I'm trying to make it logical and common sense. Bad policy costs us all

Having tourists in residential homes and families living hotel rooms is just plain dumb.

You can't keep on doing dumb things and not expect it to comeback and kick you in the ass.

Marius34

schmittel wrote: »

It was bonkers enough that pre Covid in Dublin we had Dubliners who were priced out of houses staying in hotels and tourists who were priced out of hotels staying in houses!

Now during a pandemic, when we have no tourists, some posters like Marius believe we should keep the properties empty, keep those who cannot afford housing in hotels, so that when those who can afford housing when they return can easily obtain it!

Utter madness!

Here's an idea. Those who can afford it can stay in a hotel whilst they look for accommodation when they return to Dublin if it takes a little time to find.

Apart from the total lack of empathy, Marius' theory makes absolutely no economic sense for the country.

The taxpayer should be not be paying to house the poorest in hotels so the well off are not inconvenienced in seeking accommodation.

That's not what I'm saying. Stop it, I haven't said any of that.
Are you saying that working people in Dublin can easily afford rents?

I'm saying that working people should have a chance to return back to Dublin where they work, instead of frustrated spending their working days looking for place to stay, without any luck.
I'm not sure why city properties should be used for HAP/Unemployed/homeless, instead of hard working people returning to work. Not all Dublin workers are rich, to afford to live in hotels. Nor I see it fair the same tax payers paying for social housing in Dublin city, whereas they need to stay in Hotel, or have a very long daily commute.

enricoh

Marius34 wrote: »

So we push landlords in Dublin to rent-out to all the unemployed/HAP/homeless during Covid. And for workers returning to Dublin after covid, let make spend their work days looking for a place to live, with 100 hard working people competing at the single viewing.

People who work don't matter, they can commute from gorey, mullingar, drogheda etc.

Only problem at the minute is their new 3 bed semi is shuttered up at the minute. No delays for the social housing neighbour who is getting a higher spec house than the peasant who supports himself!

PropQueries

enricoh wrote: »

People who work don't matter, they can commute from gorey, mullingar, drogheda etc.

Only problem at the minute is their new 3 bed semi is shuttered up at the minute. No delays for the social housing neighbour who is getting a higher spec house than the peasant who supports himself!

And how many of the over 50's currently living and working in Dublin were brought up in social housing that was built in Dublin between 1950 and 1990?

Dublin would be empty without social housing. The number of additional people working in Google and Facebook in the Docklands didn't result in a lack of housing for people born and bred in Dublin.

It was that many of those apartments in the docklands and other areas of the city center were removed from the housing stock and converted (without planning permission) into business premises i.e. AirBnB over the past 7 years.

No council development plan envisaged this and this is one of the primary reasons DCC should be clamping down on it big-time IMO

Just to add. Back in 2018, DCC refused Freshly Chopped a retention planning permission order on Grafton Street because:

"Under the Dublin City Development Plan, the council’s policy is to protect the primary retail function of the capital’s principal shopping streets with an emphasis on “higher order” retail outlets. It is considered that the proposed retention and permission would seriously injure the amenities of the area, would detract from the retail character, would result in an undesirable precedent for future non-retail development on this street the board said."

And this was a business trying to operate in a premises that was already designated a business. Therefore, IMO, DCC should very easily be able to shutdown a residential property that was converted into a business premises i.e. AirBnB, as that's a real change of use unlike the Freshly Chopped example.

Link to Freshly Chopped example: https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/arid-30872025.html

Hubertj

enricoh wrote: »

People who work don't matter, they can commute from gorey, mullingar, drogheda etc.

Only problem at the minute is their new 3 bed semi is shuttered up at the minute. No delays for the social housing neighbour who is getting a higher spec house than the peasant who supports himself!

I don’t think it is fair to pitch it as people who require state support for housing vs those that don’t. I’m fairly certain that the vast majority of people relying on state supports for housing would prefer not to.

There is an overall systemic problem. There is no single cause, it is a total sh*t show.

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

Regarding the UK looking at targeting our fund admin jobs. According to FT 4 days ago:

“The Treasury said leaving the EU presented an opportunity to re-examine the approach to charging VAT on fund management services, which has created an incentive for asset managers to domicile funds outside of the UK in countries such as Ireland and Luxembourg.”

Link to FT article here: https://www.ft.com/content/7c916f56-447f-4eac-aa17-1eab3add7ef6

In relation to chancellor looking at increasing UK corporation tax, according to the FT last week:

“Rishi Sunak risks clash with business over proposed corporation tax rise UK chancellor believes it fair to ask for more after taxpayer support during pandemic.”

Link to that FT article here: https://www.ft.com/content/ef8d075a-17b4-45cd-bda3-aab5e59062dc

Sorry for not reply sooner... have been a busy but profitable few days

The changes that are being implemented is more of a catch up to attract funds going forward and is not a real threat to the Irish funds industry. To quote the same article you posted:

"Few exchange traded funds are located in the UK even though ETFs are the fastest growing sector in asset management. But the Treasury said “redomiciling” existing ETFs by moving assets from a legal entity in Ireland or Luxembourg to the UK was “unrealistic” because this process would be expensive for managers and could create tax liabilities for investors. 

Industry observers have also warned the government that UK retail funds may not be competitive internationally following Brexit due to the loss of passporting rights that allowed UK based managers to sell services across the EU.

The consultation will also examine whether the government should try and enhance the UK’s reputation as a location for alternative investment funds, which are more widely used by institutional investors."

PropQueries

Interesting article in the FT today titled “Is the UK housing market on fragile foundations?”

It was discussing the ending of the stamp duty holiday in the UK.

The interesting part was the following:

“The average property transaction takes 22 weeks to complete, according to TwentyCi, which should mean any would-be buyer who has committed to a deal in the past two months would have done so knowing they would likely miss out on the stamp duty holiday.

The number of sales already in train mean that average prices — which are recorded once a sale completes — are unlikely to fall meaningfully, at least for the first few months of the year, said Stuart Ducker, a director at TwentyCi.“

So, if the average time between a sale being agreed and eventually completed in the UK is 22 weeks (which is c. 6 months) and I assume it must be longer in Ireland, what time period are the latest PPR sales prices in Ireland really corresponding to?

Even using the UK timeline, we’re talking about the December PPR sales prices corresponding to sales agreed last June.

Would it be too far fetched to suggest that many of the prices being recorded on the PPR today are from sales agreed before the initial lockdown back in March 2020?

Don’t go nuts but it’s a logical conclusion from looking at the UK timeline IMO

Link to FT article here: https://www.ft.com/content/24b7b3a2-5334-4490-8f4c-f53d50f3170a

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

Interesting article in the FT today titled “Is the UK housing market on fragile foundations?”

It was discussing the ending of the stamp duty holiday in the UK.

The interesting part was the following:

“The average property transaction takes 22 weeks to complete, according to TwentyCi, which should mean any would-be buyer who has committed to a deal in the past two months would have done so knowing they would likely miss out on the stamp duty holiday.

The number of sales already in train mean that average prices — which are recorded once a sale completes — are unlikely to fall meaningfully, at least for the first few months of the year, said Stuart Ducker, a director at TwentyCi.“

So, if the average time between a sale being agreed and eventually completed in the UK is 22 weeks (which is c. 6 months) and I assume it must be longer in Ireland, what time period are the latest PPR sales prices in Ireland really corresponding to?

Even using the UK timeline, we’re talking about the December PPR sales prices corresponding to sales agreed last June.

Would it be too far fetched to suggest that many of the prices being recorded on the PPR today are from sales agreed before the initial lockdown back in March 2020?

Don’t go nuts but it’s a logical conclusion from looking at the UK timeline IMO

Link to FT article here: https://www.ft.com/content/24b7b3a2-5334-4490-8f4c-f53d50f3170a

I think you will probably find the 6 months is due to second hand houses and a property chain which is very common in the UK.

If it does take 6 months to feed through then we will only see the impact of December 2020 in June 2021 and based on what people have been saying about how competitive the market is for buyers we could see a big jump in prices :cool:..... The logic can work in both ways :rolleyes:

PropQueries

Timing belt wrote: »

I think you will probably find the 6 months is due to second hand houses and a property chain which is very common in the UK.

If it does take 6 months to feed through then we will only see the impact of December 2020 in June 2021 and based on what people have been saying about how competitive the market is for buyers we could see a big jump in prices :cool:..... The logic can work in both ways :rolleyes:

Possible. But the article also stated that the UK recorded price rises figures were skewed by wealthier buyers. It went on to say:

“But the prospects of a buoyant market could be undermined by the cladding crisis. If that situation persists or worsens, it could threaten the stability of the wider market, Mr Ducker warned. Without first time buyers, those further up the ladder can’t sell and the “chain collapses”, he said.”

If a similar thing is happening in relation to the FTB in Ireland (not talking about cladding), this could have major consequences down the line.

Many here have posted that the sales market won’t be impacted by the relatively lower income groups losing their jobs etc.

But they are the big part of the FTB market, especially outside Dublin but also inside Dublin. Many FTB might be e.g. a couple comprising a retail worker on €600 a week and a construction worker on a €1,000 a week.

As in the UK, the “chain collapses”.

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

Possible. But the article also stated that the UK recorded price rises figures were skewed by wealthier buyers. It went on to say:

“But the prospects of a buoyant market could be undermined by the cladding crisis. If that situation persists or worsens, it could threaten the stability of the wider market, Mr Ducker warned. Without first time buyers, those further up the ladder can’t sell and the “chain collapses”, he said.”

If a similar thing is happening in relation to the FTB in Ireland (not talking about cladding), this could have major consequences down the line.

Many here have posted that the sales market won’t be impacted by the relatively lower income groups losing their jobs etc.

But they are the big part of the FTB market, especially outside Dublin but also inside Dublin. Many FTB might be e.g. a couple comprising a retail worker on €600 a week and a construction worker on a €1,000 a week.

As in the UK, the “chain collapses”.

No doubt the housing market will be impacted by people that have lost their jobs but it is only appears to be a headwind as it has not slowed down demand from FTB's.... Add on top of that the HTB and shared Equity and there will be no shortage of FTB's.

I would be much more concerned that in the low interest rate environment it easier to grow your profit by cutting costs as opposed to selling more.... cutting costs = job losses.... Banks have already started doing this and it is likely that the rest of the Financial Services will soon follow. This would have a much bigger impact on the Irish housing market.

Villa05

Timing belt wrote:

I would be much more concerned that in the low interest rate environment it easier to grow your profit by cutting costs as opposed to selling more.... cutting costs = job losses.... Banks have already started doing this and it is likely that the rest of the Financial Services will soon follow. This would have a much bigger impact on the Irish housing market.

I was thinking that, how can pension/incestment funds justify current charges if as you predict we are moving into a low return environment

Timing belt

Villa05 wrote: »

I was thinking that, how can pension/incestment funds justify current charges if as you predict we are moving into a low return environment

They can justify their charges as they are protecting your capital by actively trading etc. If they just bought bonds it would not protect your capital as would have negative yield.... If they invest in the stock market the P/E ratio's are so high they will not get you any meaningful return so will need to actively trade just to maintain the capital that you have invested. This is the reason that I am bullish on property at the moment as there will be a demand for property as this still provides a return. Longer term as more people invest the lower the future returns will be as the supply of rental properties will increase.

My concern would be that if we stay in a low interest rate environment for to long then will people bother to invest or put money away in a pension. We can already see that in the banking sector people stopped putting money on term for the extra interest as it was so small so could we see something similar with pensions and if we did where would the money go. Would it be into a perceived safer asset such as property that will provide a modest return or will it be used for more risky investments such as investing in rocket fueled stocks or Crypto in an effort to see a return.

At the moment it looks like we will be in this low rate environment for some time to come as there is little signs of any inflation in the CPI that would push rates higher which is worrying as the longer it goes on the more focus will be put on cost cutting by companies.

PropQueries

Villa05 wrote: »

I was thinking that, how can pension/incestment funds justify current charges if as you predict we are moving into a low return environment

That's true. The coverage of the looming pension crisis (private pensions and state pensions) has been very muted since the pandemic started. This was recognised as a big problem 20 years ago when interest rates were much higher, never mind today.

Just 2 weeks ago, the CSO statistician James Hegarty told the government's Pensions Commission that Ireland will "need 4 million migrants over the next 30 years to maintain the financial health of the State pension system."

Never mind the societal implications of this, but even if everyone in Ireland agreed to such a scenario taking place and we actually generated that number of jobs to encourage these immigrants into the country (highly unlikely), we would also have to compete with most other countries in the EU for these same immigrants as from Germany down to Spain, they have the exact same looming pension problem.

Link to article in Irish Independent here: https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/ireland-needs-four-million-migrants-to-sustain-state-pension-system-39985277.html