Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VIII Read OP For Mod Warnings

Necro · 31-01-2021 12:23AM

Mod:

Can we cut out the back and forth sniping at each other and just discuss the topic of the thread please. I've deleted this whole part of the discussion but it will be cards and threadbans following if you can't remain civil

gmisk · 31-01-2021 12:23AM

Lundstram wrote: »

No one alive has experience of a pandemic. No one.

"infectious disease expert" Sam McConkey predicted a few hundred thousand deaths on this island, we just passed 3k. To this day his mug is all over my TV spouting nonsense.

Call me mad but....Hmm an infectious disease expert might have just a degree more knowledge in the area...than most of the randomers that are being amplified by social media etc

FintanMcluskey · 31-01-2021 12:25AM

Graham wrote: »

Who are we pretending doesn't want normality to return?

It’s what the whole debate is referenced on Graham.

Saving lives and preventing hospitals becoming overwhelmed

Lundstram · 31-01-2021 12:25AM

gmisk wrote: »

Call me mad but....Hmm an infectious disease expert might have just a degree more knowledge in the area...than most of the randomers that are being amplified by social media etc

Yeah.. his predictions were spot on weren't they.. :rolleyes:

Silentcorner · 31-01-2021 12:26AM

Lundstram wrote: »

Yeah.. his predictions were spot on weren't they.. :rolleyes:

Has there even been an "expert" given loads of airtime whose predictions have been spot on?

31-01-2021 12:27AM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

No that’s total bolix.

The argument is to weather the fact Ireland was in lockdown for almost twice as long as other European countries last year was actually cost effective?

And that we are now on track to follow last years pattern, the question is even more relevant.

But it doesn’t sound like you have any interest in contributing to the discussion as you have already made up claims

It's not total boll*x. Most of you have been arguing that deaths don't matter for the last I don't know how many pages.

The title of the thread is "Relaxion of restrictions"

Current thinking - and evidence - would suggest that it's not a great idea to relax restrictions until we're happy enough that not a lot of people are going to die.

gmisk · 31-01-2021 12:27AM

Lundstram wrote: »

Yeah.. his predictions were spot on weren't they.. :rolleyes:

Ah your right probably better to listen to someone spouting baseless nonsense on facebook if that's what you are after work away, I'm done for tonight.
I got a yellow card for about the second time in my life here and I don't want another one.
Have at it.

Silentcorner · 31-01-2021 12:29AM

gmisk wrote: »

Ah your right probably better to listen to someone spouting baseless nonsense on facebook if that's what you prefer

Can you name an expert, you see all the time on whatever media you are consuming, whose predictions have been spot on?

Mr. Karate · 31-01-2021 12:29AM

Lundstram wrote: »

No one alive has experience of a pandemic. No one.

"infectious disease expert" Sam McConkey predicted a few hundred thousand deaths on this island, we just passed 3k. To this day his mug is all over my TV spouting nonsense.

And these are the authority figures certain posters here believe they should be above reproach and criticism. These "experts" are clowns who have made outrageous predictions and have been wrong every step of the way. The fact that they still have the ears of Govt and Health officials is sad and shows you we'll never be out of this because they're listening to snake oil salesmen.

Lundstram · 31-01-2021 12:29AM

Deleted User wrote: »

It's not total boll*x. Most of you have been arguing that deaths don't matter for the last I don't know how many pages.

No one seemed to care about the couple of thousand deaths (with flu, like Covid19) each year.

Funny that.

Penfailed · 31-01-2021 12:31AM

Paddyman38 wrote: »

Well i would prefer not to be locked down to 5 k there are only so many 5k loops you can do, i prefer to be free not locked up like an animal in the Zoo. A thing called freedom of choice used to exit, sadly no more

You've a 5k radius from your house available for exercise and you're comparing it to being locked up like an animal in a zoo?! That's one big fúcking zoo!

FintanMcluskey · 31-01-2021 12:31AM

Deleted User wrote: »

It's not total boll*x. Most of you have been arguing that deaths don't matter for the last I don't know how many pages.

Whatever about don’t matter, it’s questioning how preventable deaths occurring past life expectancy realistically are.

We are sacrificing the future one group of citizens to prolong the lives of another but a short time

31-01-2021 12:31AM

Silentcorner wrote: »

Has there even been an "expert" given loads of airtime whose predictions have been spot on?

If the conditions that a prediction was based on change, the outcome changing does not refute the original projection. Not saying it confirms it either, however no one here can say what would have happened had the restrictions in place in September remained unchanged. It would have been pretty grim I would say though

Graham · 31-01-2021 12:32AM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

It’s what the whole debate is referenced on Graham.

I haven't seen anyone advocate permanent restrictions.

The only mention of it has been from a handful of posters using at as some sort of bogeyman to provoke a reaction.

FintanMcluskey · 31-01-2021 12:33AM

Lundstram wrote: »

No one alive has experience of a pandemic. No one.

2018 in Ireland had a higher death rate than 2020.

Obviously there was a deadly pandemic in 2018

31-01-2021 12:33AM

Lundstram wrote: »

No one seemed to care about the couple of thousand deaths (with flu, like Covid19) each year.

Funny that.

Source for the couple of thousand flu deaths each year?

Kunta Kinte · 31-01-2021 12:34AM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Yep.

It will follow last years path as Leo admitted this week.

Schools back in September etc.

We will have to go abroad for concerts and a semblance of a social life for the next few years

Link to where Leo stated the schools will remain closed until September?

Arghus · 31-01-2021 12:36AM

Lundstram wrote: »

No one seemed to care about the couple of thousand deaths (with flu, like Covid19) each year.

Funny that.

If 3k deaths would have been the likely outcome if we kept things open, then we would have kept things open - or at least with lesser restrictions.

That 3k comes after massive measures have been used to control the numbers of infections, so you can imagine what the outcome would have been if we had just carried on.

We opened for three weeks in December, and not even anywhere to the extent of normal everyday pre-pandemic life - and we've now got a thousand plus death toll in January.

31-01-2021 12:36AM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

2018 in Ireland had a higher death rate than 2020.

Obviously there was a deadly pandemic in 2018

Death rates for 2020 have not been published. Across Europe excess deaths for 2018 were about 5% up owning to a higher than normal flu season and an exceptionally cold winter. 2020 was 12% above normal, with a pretty mild flu season and regular winter

Silentcorner · 31-01-2021 12:37AM

Deleted User wrote: »

If the conditions that a prediction was based on change, the outcome changing does not refute the original projection. Not saying it confirms it either, however no one here can say what would have happened had the restrictions in place in September remained unchanged. It would have been pretty grim I would say though

Funny, that sounds like something a charlatan would say.

IF you saw an two experts on TV last Sept.

One predicted that we would see a surge again in winter no matter what we did, that you couldn't predict exactly how many people would be infected but that it would rise over the winter months then shoot up and decline over a 6 week period...and it is best to keep some restrictions (like mass gatherings etc) but allow as much normal life as possible?

The other predicted Mass Graves and Freezer trucks full of bodies if we didn't go lockdown level 5 ASAP

Which one would you call a charlatan?

31-01-2021 12:39AM

Silentcorner wrote: »

Funny, that sounds like something a charlatan would say.

IF you saw an two experts on TV last Sept.

One predicted that we would see a surge again in winter no matter what we did, that you couldn't predict exactly how many people would be infected but that it would rise over the winter months then shoot up and decline over a 6 week period...and it is best to keep some restrictions (like mass gatherings etc) but allow as much normal life as possible?

The other predicted Mass Graves and Freezer trucks full of bodies if we didn't go lockdown level 5 ASAP

Which one would you call a charlatan?

Can you share this prediction, in full, as without context I can’t comment

FintanMcluskey · 31-01-2021 12:40AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Death rates for 2020 have not been published. Across Europe excess deaths for 2018 were about 5% up owning to a higher than normal flu season and an exceptionally cold winter. 2020 was 12% above normal, with a pretty mild flu season and regular winter

So a bad flu causes a 5% increase on normal

Covid causes a 7% increase on a bad flu

Turtwig · 31-01-2021 12:41AM

Lundstram wrote: »

Yeah.. his predictions were spot on weren't they.. :rolleyes:

How would you predict the number of deaths?

FintanMcluskey · 31-01-2021 12:43AM

Turtwig wrote: »

How would you predict the number of deaths?

The median age of deaths suggest’s it would be within 5-10% of an average year.

Penfailed · 31-01-2021 12:43AM

Lundstram wrote: »

You're not paraphrasing, you're downright lying.

Nobody said open it all up and let it rip.

The damage to the economy was mostly done last summer when we had fcuk all cases and barely any deaths yet we remained the most restricted nation in the EU.

Except that fella that did earlier.

Lundstram · 31-01-2021 12:43AM

Turtwig wrote: »

How would you predict the number of deaths?

Don't know, I'm not the one claiming to be an infectious disease expert.

31-01-2021 12:43AM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

So a bad flu causes a 5% increase on normal

Covid causes a 7% increase on a bad flu

Bad flu and very cold winter. The excess deaths owning to winter 2018 in Europe are well documented. Now given neither the bad flu or bad winter happened in 2020, you can’t move your starting point to include those. It’s 12% on baseline

31-01-2021 12:44AM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Whatever about don’t matter, it’s questioning how preventable deaths occurring past life expectancy realistically are.

We are sacrificing the future one group of citizens to prolong the lives of another but a short time

So you're ok with people in the at most risk category being put out to pasture? Like I said earlier, nice.

Silentcorner · 31-01-2021 12:45AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Can you share this prediction, in full, as without context I can’t comment

Can you just answer the question?

back in Sept I listened to an interview on local radio with a doctor who spoke out against lockdowns, whose name I cannot recall, but he had to stand down from a board position in local health authority...wasn't a hope this guy would get national media coverage.

I also saw a so called leading expert predict the freezer trucks and mass graves.

This was the Tonight Show, the clip is not on youtube.

You either believe me or not, that is up to you, but you can still answer the question.

Turtwig · 31-01-2021 12:45AM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

The median age of deaths suggest’s it would be within 5-10% of an average year.

I didn't ask that. Not even sure why you're bringing it up.

I asked the poster, and now you, how you would do McConkeys prediction?

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VIII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VIII Read OP For Mod Warnings