Who Watches the Watchmen (Our Chit Chat Thread)

A new AP, apparently a bargain in that realm, but the macro shots don't do it many favours. Dust, smudges, dial paint issues.

unkel wrote: »

So the watch industry is full of ****,

Kinda U, though all luxury/veblen industries are full of it to some degree or other

even the holy trinity produce poorly finished watches,

And/or the market has become ever more anal over things that don't actually matter . Something that tends to happen as costs of involvement rise. Grand Seiko hurts the Big Three in dial finishing and isn't so far off in movement finishing and for significantly less investment, but the Big Three have far more cache.

the fakes are now so good they can't be detected unless you send it in for service.

That is a worry alright. And it's only going to get worse.

It's all taking a lot of the glamour away, isn't it?

It is, but on the other hand U, so long as you get out before the market stagnates or softens(or buy a forever watch) I can see it as a good thing too. If the shine and hype goes off it in the mainstream and the flippers/fashionistas drift away the market and the hobby should hopefully calm down to pre 2010 levels. I think the vintage market is in more trouble as supply is by definition finite and unless a load of hoarders and investors sell off I can see it remaining pretty stagnant.

I hadn't looking in on the TZUK forum for ages since my account was apparently constrained for some reason but looking at it today and there seems to be more talk of homages, Seiko, microbrands with some Omega and Longines content. A year ago it was looking much more like the Rolex forum, so there does seem to be some drift going on. Personally speaking? If I owned one of the "hot" Rolex models and it wasn't going to be my forever watch I'd be looking to offload it at the current price levels and looking into a watch at the higher levels, probably in precious metal and something that will be a fine timepiece after the dust has settled. Lange would probably be top of my list.

Fitz II wrote: »

Fake sure, they are a pain in the ass, but that people are willing to spend money to pretend to be an owner is also a backhanded complement and further enhances the intangible benefits of having the real deal. Bless their hearts. What fakes are doing is making the real deal more expensive, cause you have to go new, trusted dealer and pay the premiums

Well that's what the industry hopes will continue, but the more "it's could be/probably a fake" hits the mainstream - and it has considering the recent flood of how to spot fakes and how "good" they are getting", it is - this will hurt brands and the industry. Especially as those premiums rise.

Of course the industry is full of sh1t...its selling luxury and ornaments that serve no purpose except to pose. And before you come in Wibbs vintage is the biggest shower of posers out there. I am OK with that, I like that game and when you get down with that this becomes a lot of fun.

The poser/fashion factor has become significantly more in play over the last few years and it's all too easy to project that onto the wider buying market, or even why others are into watches, or what purpose they serve people. For you they may be ornaments that serve no purpose except to pose, but is not close to being a universal thing, it's a particular trend that was always there to some degree, but has grown significantly over the last ten years, and indeed yes including the vintage market post Hodinke .

The pose factor is pretty much down to Rolex and Patek to a lesser degree. The rest have feck all recognition among most people out there. Rolex, Casio, Seiko, Omega to some degree would be your lot(in the past TAG, Breitling and IWC might have been in the mix). Vanishingly few would know AP or VC. Bloggers and Tubers are getting more men into such things but it's a recent thing. That bloke on youtube who didn't notice his expensive bracelet wasn't running after a drunken golf outing for the three days he was wearing it would have been roasted in the comments for that a few years back. It's very much a trend and fashion of the moment and trends and fashions have a habit of changing and the more rapid a rise, the more likely. Doubly so if the costs of engaging in such and arms race keep going upwards.

Now there has been talk of a "bubble" forming, especially with Rolex and that segment does have some commonalities with bubbles; fast rising valuations in the secondary market, a perception of rarity driven by the market and the brand, new buyers coming in in droves, buyers becoming more speculative about current/future values and flipping on that basis(and dealers being evangelical about "investments"), a feeling that this trend will always go up and always has(it might not and it hasn't) and everybody and his dog becoming aware of the market.

I personally don't think there'll be a crash, more of a resetting of the market as the fashion moves on.

The Blancpain isn't getting much love. The originals are far more balanced looking, less I dunno Eurotrash with cash or something. The brand engraved on the side is just tacky in my humble and they do look like a cheap watch in the flesh. Too shiny or something. The vintage Daytona... I can sort of see why they didn't sell very well back then. If you compare it to competitors at the time it is kinda bland as feck. The ones post 1990 down to today are much more interesting to just look at. "Douchebag Flex" The Lange got a fair few thumbs up. It's interesting that for a few of the non watch people it was the cheapest part, the strap that let a watch down. Plus without knowing the brands and just going by the look and feel in the hand some really cheap watches were seen as better than or the same as much more expensive watches. An Orient and a Tudor confused one guy who reckoned they were close in value and couldn't make up his mind which was the more expensive.

I've kinda seen similar with non watch people who commented on watches I've worn. Comments are rare, but when they come it's not for the expected watches and there's been a definite gender diff in comments.