Snow/Ice warning for Leinster, Donegal, Cavan, Monaghan and Connacht

Meteorite58 · 28-01-2021 8:50pm #1

Time to kick off a thread on the potential for snowfall over the weekend coming.

In general a lot of mixed precipitation with mostly rainfall for the Southern half of the country and wintry weather risk increases from the midlands up to Northern counties. Beginning Saturday looking mostly wet and possibly wintry in places especially the E and atm mainly of rain and sleet and snow possible on Mountains especially Wicklow.
From early Sunday morning fronts will move in from the W and slowly move up the country moving increasingly into cold air and turning wintry and currently looks like the potential for snowfall in the W, NW, N and midlands with accumulations to low levels being shown on some models. Following fronts early Monday might wash out a lot of the snow that fell apart from the N and another front later Monday could lead to some more wintry weather in N counties.

Frost in areas Saturday night, less cold Sunday night, coldest in Northern half of the country.

High rainfall totals in Southern counties.

Blustery on Saturday and less windy on Sunday.

Difficult driving conditions more so in the Northern half of the country and would think it could be quite wet snow getting very slushy on the roads Sunday evening.

Possible Yellow warnings for snow/ wintry conditions.

So just the opening post as I see it at the moment and no doubt the finer details will be known over the coming days with plenty of contributions from other posters.

Danno · 28-01-2021 10:02pm

Oh, a snow thread not started by Kermit! This is strange territory! :pac:

This looks to be a very knife-edge run of events, lets hope lady luck throws us a lifeline and brings more widespread snow.

Friday night: Rain in the southwest will extend over much of the country on Friday night possibly turning to sleet and hill snow towards dawn over parts of the north and east. Lowest temperatures of 1 to 4 degrees generally, but 5 to 7 degrees in southern counties. Easterly winds will be fresh to strong and gusty.

Saturday: A wet start to the day with outbreaks of rain over much of the country, and some falls of sleet and hill snow in the north and east, with persistent rain affecting southern coastal counties. The rain will become mostly confined to the south and east in the afternoon. Feeling much cooler than recent days with highs of 2 to 5 degrees in moderate to fresh and gusty east to northeast winds.

Saturday night: Remaining rain will clear the south and east early on Saturday night and it will become dry and largely clear for a time. Current indications suggest cloud and rain will push in from the southwest overnight with some falls of sleet and snow possible across the midlands, west and north by morning. Lowest temperatures of -1 to +3 degrees with and early frost forming in areas sheltered from the gusty easterly winds.

Met Eireann's forecast update in the morning will be interesting - the above mentioning potential.

Donegal Ken · 28-01-2021 10:51pm

Well the potential is there for Sunday especially for Connacht, Ulster and north Leinster. Should know more on Fridays runs.

Rock Lesnar · 28-01-2021 11:16pm

Donegal Ken wrote: »

Well the potential is there for Sunday especially for Connacht, Ulster and north Leinster. Should know more on Fridays runs.

Just seen a chart on bbc weather that looked snowy for us in meath

Gaoth Laidir · 28-01-2021 11:39pm

The Portuguese Met named this system Justine so maybe it should be included in the title, for the record?

It's fairly potent around the Azores, with gusts up to 140 kph on the western islands. Rainfall rates currently above 20 mm/h.

Informação especial
Comunicado válido entre 2021-01-26 15:59:00 e 2021-01-29 12:00:00
Assunto: Depressão Justine - Açores - Comunicado N.º3
De acordo com as últimas actualizações dos modelos de previsão, a Depressão Justine deverá, às 22h UTC de hoje (28 de janeiro), encontrar-se centrada a 43ºN 32ºW, ou seja, a cerca de 350 km a norte/noroeste da ilha do Corvo, no seu ponto mais próximo do Arquipélago.

Prevê-se que a Depressão Justine provoque um aumento significativo da intensidade do vento, com rajadas na ordem dos 140 km/h nas ilhas do Grupo Ocidental, 120 km/h nas ilhas do Grupo Central e até 100 km/h no Grupo Oriental. Provocará também um aumento da agitação marítima com ondas de 7 a 9 metros de altura significativa no Grupo Ocidental, de 6 a 8 metros no Grupo Central e até 5 metros no Grupo Oriental. Associada a esta situação meteorológica ocorrerá, também, precipitação por vezes forte em todas as ilhas.

Os efeitos desta depressão deverão começar a sentir-se a partir da tarde de hoje (quinta-feira).

Para mais detalhes para a navegação marítima consultar:
http://www.ipma.pt/pt/maritima/boletins/

Para mais detalhes sobre a previsão meteorológica para os próximos dias consultar:
http://www.ipma.pt/pt/otempo/prev.descritiva/
http://www.ipma.pt/pt/otempo/prev.significativa

Gonzo · 29-01-2021 12:24am

WRF going for quite a bit of snow especially for midland areas through this weekend. Rain mostly for Leinster but snow possible on Sunday.

nmmuk-42-40-0.png?28-23

Other models keep the precipitation further south and more of a watery mix.

giveitholly · 29-01-2021 12:30am

Just saw the forecast on bbc and the graphics showed most of Ireland north of a line from Galway and Dublin covered in white!!

nacho libre · 29-01-2021 12:34am

I'm not getting my hopes up for this one. I think it could be quite messy mix of rain, sleet and snow as opposed to an all snow event for lower levels

Artane2002 · 29-01-2021 12:35am

giveitholly wrote: »

Just saw the forecast on bbc and the graphics showed most of Ireland north of a line from Galway and Dublin covered in white!!

I think the BBC copy and paste what the ECM shows so I'd take their graphics with a pinch of salt.

Rock Lesnar · 29-01-2021 1:03am

Artane2002 wrote: »

I think the BBC copy and paste what the ECM shows so I'd take their graphics with a pinch of salt.

To be fair, i find the bbc very accurate, have done for a long time, they got the rain last week spot on for my area, and actually in other forecasts, the length of time it will rain and then clearance time are accurate to, i would use that more then ME to be honest

Artane2002 · 29-01-2021 1:15am

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

To be fair, i find the bbc very accurate, have done for a long time, they got the rain last week spot on for my area, and actually in other forecasts, the length of time it will rain and then clearance time are accurate to, i would use that more then ME to be honest

this event is extremely marginal though, I don't believe it's wise to solely rely on one model in such occasions. we'll see how it pans out though.

Rock Lesnar · 29-01-2021 1:17am

Artane2002 wrote: »

this event is extremely marginal though, I don't believe it's wise to solely rely on one model in such occasions.

Ah yeah i agree, im just saying in general, i find their forecasts very reliable, we'll find out soon enough i suppose

Gonzo · 29-01-2021 1:20am

This will be more marginal than last week's snow event particularly in Leinster with those onshore breezes. Most likely cold rain with some wet flakes mixed in at times. best chance of snow probably the north midlands. It still remains to be seen how far north this will go. Could be quite light and patchy north of Dublin to Galway. We will have a better idea tomorrow and then start looking into Sunday's potential.

Kermit.de.frog · 29-01-2021 4:50am

Sunday is the big day :cool:

pauldry · 29-01-2021 9:49am

Artane2002 wrote: »

I think the BBC copy and paste what the ECM shows so I'd take their graphics with a pinch of salt.

I find the BBC weather desperately inaccurate for Sligo.

In the past 3 weeks they showed it sunny here on their forecast 3 times and all 3 times it was lashing rain. The kids said to me "I thought you said today would be sunny" Im running out of "ya buts"

As for this weekend Ulster. Certainly not Sligo town as map above shows. The blusteryness will push any snow risk in the Republic further East and inland at that.

nacho libre · 29-01-2021 12:58pm

Sunday could be just the appetiser yet:)

Billcarson · 29-01-2021 1:34pm

nacho libre wrote: »

Sunday could be just the appetiser yet:)

Hopefully with the main course being served later next week and second week of feb.

Wonder what we will have for dessert.

Storm 10 · 29-01-2021 2:14pm

Billcarson wrote: »

Hopefully with the main course being served later next week and second week of feb.

Wonder what we will have for dessert.

Storm would be nice

Billcarson · 29-01-2021 2:19pm

Storm 10 wrote: »

Storm would be nice

With snow. A nice blizzard would be tasty

pauldry · 29-01-2021 2:41pm

But after the blizzard minus 10c for 3 weeks

Little snowy old me · 29-01-2021 2:49pm

I know its not scientific but something about the air today that suggests theres a deep cold brewing. Just a hunch. In line with what the models are indicating? Dont ask me why as i hatr setting myself up for the fall but i have an inkling this cold will come.

Donegal Ken · 29-01-2021 3:05pm

The highest risk of snow accumulations on Sunday will be areas like Mayo, North Galway, Roscommon, Sligo, Leitrim, Donegal, Longford, Cavan, Monaghan, Meath, Weathmeath, Derry, Fermanagh and Tyrone. The biggest question for the rest of the counties in Ulster is how far that band gets northwards. I think southwards from North Leinster and north Connacht it will tend to be more of a mix of sleet or cold rain. If the colder air shifts that but further south in the meantime by Sunday then further parts of Leinster will come into play. Warnings most likely will be issued as early as Saturday morning for Sunday and no later than 5pm Saturday.

Mount Vesuvius · 29-01-2021 3:09pm

Little snowy old me wrote: »

I know its not scientific but something about the air today that suggests theres a deep cold brewing. Just a hunch. In line with what the models are indicating? Dont ask me why as i hatr setting myself up for the fall but i have an inkling this cold will come.

I met a dog out walking this morning, I could tell by his nervous walk that he knows something is coming. His poor face spoke volumes that cold is definitely brewing on the horizon. The birds were also going crazy gathering bits of twigs. The animals know i tell you, they know.

DOCARCH · 29-01-2021 3:10pm

I think cold rain, with maybe some sleet, is what Dublin can expect (away from the higher parts of the Dublin Mountains).

Nqp15hhu · 29-01-2021 3:12pm

Donegal Ken wrote: »

The highest risk of snow accumulations on Sunday will be areas like Mayo, North Galway, Roscommon, Sligo, Leitrim, Donegal, Longford, Cavan, Monaghan, Meath, Weathmeath, Derry, Fermanagh and Tyrone. The biggest question for the rest of the counties in Ulster is how far that band gets northwards. I think southwards from North Leinster and north Connacht it will tend to be more of a mix of sleet or cold rain. If the colder air shifts that but further south in the meantime by Sunday then further parts of Leinster will come into play. Warnings most likely will be issued as early as Saturday morning for Sunday and no later than 5pm Saturday.

Most weather models show this front dying out and heading south on Sunday. I don't expect to see any precipitation from fronts this weekend here, at all.

esposito · 29-01-2021 3:13pm

DOCARCH wrote: »

I think cold rain, with maybe some sleet, is what Dublin can expect (away from the higher parts of the Dublin Mountains).

How many times have we experienced that before. Anyway if it means we get the real deal (fingers crossed) in a weeks time then I will put up with it!

Mount Vesuvius · 29-01-2021 3:13pm

Yeah not expecting much away from highest hills on Saturday, perhaps Sunday the snowline can briefly lower a tad before rain again. Hopefully this is just the taster to what is potentially around the corner

Meteorite58 · 29-01-2021 3:15pm

Bit of a difference between the models as ever to the track and duration of the frontal precipitation and how much snow might fall and where. ICON showing wintry precipitation further S and lasting longer later Sunday into the SE. ECM , UKMO probably a bit less snow on the most recent 06Z charts and concentrating more to the W, NW , N midlands and parts of the E and SE, more so high ground. Some big snow accumulations on the Wicklow mountains showing up .A lot of rainfall accumulations in Southern counties and looking quite blustery as well both days.

I put up the WRF chart as I think it might be a good cross representations of the charts atm.

Mount Vesuvius · 29-01-2021 3:16pm

Level: Yellow
Type: RainfallMessage: Heavy rain, turning wintry at times. Rainfall accumulations of up to 30 to 40mm, with a risk of localised flooding.Affected Regions: Wexford and WicklowIssue Time: Friday 29/1/2021 14:00Expected Onset: Saturday 30/1/2021 03:00Expires: Saturday 30/1/2021 15:00

Donegal Ken · 29-01-2021 3:16pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Most weather models show this front dying out and heading south on Sunday. I don't expect to see any precipitation from fronts this weekend here, at all.

However south Donegal may see some snow. Less of a risk across the northern half of Donegal

Mount Vesuvius · 29-01-2021 3:25pm

Level: Advisory

Type: Advisory
Message: Very unsettled weather this weekend with wet and windy conditions bringing a risk of localised flooding. Cold also, with wintry falls of snow and icy conditions.Affected Regions: Carlow, Cavan, Clare, Cork, Donegal, Dublin, Galway, Kerry, Kildare, Kilkenny, Leitrim, Laois, Limerick, Longford, Louth, Mayo, Meath, Monaghan, Offaly, Roscommon, Sligo, Tipperary, Waterford, Westmeath, Wexford, and Wicklow

Issue Time: Friday 29/1/2021 14:00Expected Onset: Friday 29/1/2021 22:00Expires: Sunday 31/1/2021 23:59

Snow/Ice warning for Leinster, Donegal, Cavan, Monaghan and Connacht

Comments