Snow/Ice warning for Leinster, Donegal, Cavan, Monaghan and Connacht

Snowbiee21

lostweekend3 wrote: »

Bit will we feel the snow? Probably not tomorrow, perhaps Sunday

Don't worry, we have onshore easterly winds gusting to 80 km/h combined with rain and near spring tides to content with tomorrow.

How wonderful.

Meteorite58

Connaught, parts of Leinster , maybe down as far as parts of Tipperary and edging into Northern counties look to have potential for snow on Sunday. GFS bit of an upgrade tonight would reckon.

Meteorite58

The colder airmass not budging much as the front advances tomorrow, stalls, retreats and dissipates . It would appear that right at it's Northern edge where it meets the cold air could see wintry weather tomorrow, sleet and some snow possible would reckon, further South only on the highest ground perhaps.

Nqp15hhu

Meteorite58 wrote: »

The colder airmass not budging much as the front advances tomorrow, stalls, retreats and dissipates . It would appear that right at it's Northern edge where it meets the cold air could see wintry weather tomorrow, sleet and some snow possible would reckon, further South only on the highest ground perhaps.

A lot of people are calling this a short spell but I have been observing this.. all of the predicted pushes from the Atlantic, have so far ended up further south with each run.

I think we *may* but in for a longer cold spell.

Meteorite58

WRF has really upped the snow potential for Sunday into Monday and yes Nqp15hhu there is the potential of a substantial amount of snow later Monday night or early Tuesday morning in the Northern third of the country.

nacho libre

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

A lot of people are calling this a short spell but I have been observing this.. all of the predicted pushes from the Atlantic, have so far ended up further south with each run.

I think we *may* but in for a longer cold spell.

The funny thing is this cold spell could yet deliver more snow to some areas than the fi chase for a more sustained cold spell.

Meteorite58

nacho libre wrote: »

The funny thing is this cold spell could yet deliver more snow to some areas than the fi chase for a more sustained cold spell.

Was thinking that myself.

ARPEGE 18Z now looking more active too for Sunday and bringing it into Monday also. On the 12Z showing a big dump of snow early Tuesday from the midlands up to Northern counties and continuing there into Weds ???

Also to note that ARPEGE has a warm bias so when it is showing snow potential the possibility certainly rises. Not great 850 hPa temps but the pressure is low enough.

Meteorite58

High Spring tides early Monday morning along the South coast might prove problematic with swollen rivers trying to drain into the sea.

Donegal Ken

nacho libre wrote: »

The funny thing is this cold spell could yet deliver more snow to some areas than the fi chase for a more sustained cold spell.

Thats true many of the heavier falls of snow in this country come from not very notable cold spells. Doesn't always take very cold weather. I think many have underplayed things also. Interesting watching these runs over the past few days. Haven't really been watching the end of next week i am more focused on this weekend and the start of the new week.

Meteorite58

ECM 18Z upgrade again, decent amounts now showing up on the charts.

Initial snow in parts may be followed by rain so some areas will see snow washed out perhaps but good chance of quite large areas with snow on the ground lasting into Monday would have thought.

Tyrone212

Colder air seems to be hanging around the Northern third of the country like Scotland last week. I wouldn't be surprised to see it push further South.

nacho libre

Keep the upgrades coming Meteorite58:)

nacho libre

Tyrone212 wrote: »

Colder air seems to be hanging around the Northern third of the country like Scotland last week. I wouldn't be surprised to see it push further South.

Well let's hope so, as a poster mentioned earlier these systems were suppose to barrell through earlier in the week.

Nqp15hhu

Tyrone212 wrote: »

Colder air seems to be hanging around the Northern third of the country like Scotland last week. I wouldn't be surprised to see it push further South.

Yep. Might be better in the long term if the systems head south.

And this could increase the chance of convective showers here.

Meteorite58

nacho libre wrote: »

Keep the upgrades coming Meteorite58:)

It's creeping up but probably reached close to the limit now.

Neddyusa

nacho libre wrote: »

The funny thing is this cold spell could yet deliver more snow to some areas than the fi chase for a more sustained cold spell.

Definitely - I'm like a broken record on this point - but in my area at least, the heaviest snowfalls over the last 30 years have never been flagged by forecasts more than a day in advance

Donegal Ken

The Gfs, ECMWF, and WRF all showing a risk of snowfall tomorrow with some accumulations in parts especially across parts of Connacht, Ulster and Leinster this morning. The Arpege which is normally sit more on the warmer side is showing a cold morning and day with some snow accumulations as that rain move in across Ireland on Sunday and turning to sleet and snow. Warning most likely been issued between 10am this morning and 5pm today by Met Eireann.
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Tyrone212

Tomorrow
Wintry outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow will become widespread on Sunday morning. Some accumulations across the northern half of the country, before precipitation mainly reverts back to rainfall later in the day. However, wintry falls will persist across the far northwest into the evening hours. A very cold day generally with highest temperatures of 1 to 5 degrees Celsius, in fresh southeast winds. It will though be little less cold across the southwest with lighter winds here too.

Very wet in Arklow
Approaching an inch of rain in the past few hours
I'd say lug is in a blizzard

Tyrone212

Harmonie

Oneiric 3

EPS projection for 'snow depth' tomorrow:



Again, not to be taken at face, but more giving just a general idea of where snow is more likely to potentially fall from this system.

Nqp15hhu

I am forecast dry conditions until Tuesday. And I would rather have it that way as all these fronts are doing is increasing the likelihood of mild weather pushing through.

Pangea

Things are looking good, nice posts lads, this potential event has been slept on so far.

Donegal Ken

Tyrone212 wrote: »

Harmonie

That Harmonie model is different to the Met Eireann one just incase you didn't know.

Tyrone212

Donegal Ken wrote: »

That Harmonie model is different to the Met Eireann one just incase you didn't know.

I was wondering why it had the Dutch, Belgium and French flag beside it. Any place we can view the M.E version snow accumulation chart? I'm thinking no.

nacho libre

Tyrone212 wrote: »

Tomorrow
Wintry outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow will become widespread on Sunday morning. Some accumulations across the northern half of the country, before precipitation mainly reverts back to rainfall later in the day. However, wintry falls will persist across the far northwest into the evening hours. A very cold day generally with highest temperatures of 1 to 5 degrees Celsius, in fresh southeast winds. It will though be little less cold across the southwest with lighter winds here too.

Hopefully it peters out rather than turns back to rain.

Meteorite58

AROME 06Z below is the cumulative amount of snow predicted tomorrow and wouldn't take into account snow that has melted or washed out, even so a fair bit of lying snow in places for a time.





ECM probably down a bit on the last run but hasn't strayed too much over the last few runs.

circadian

Absolutely saturated outside with this rain. Even if there was significant snowfall I just can't see any meaningful amount settling.

nacho libre

circadian wrote: »

Absolutely saturated outside with this rain. Even if there was significant snowfall I just can't see any meaningful amount settling.

If the temperature drops lows enough it will. The problem in very wet conditions is that the temperature is usually just a bit too high for it to settle

Donegal Ken

Tyrone212 wrote: »

I was wondering why it had the Dutch, Belgium and French flag beside it. Any place we can view the M.E version snow accumulation chart? I'm thinking no.

The only real place is the graphic they put up on twitter which only shows the perception rate. I have contacted them about make there graphics more accessible in the future and they are to get back to me on it.

Gonzo

circadian wrote: »

Absolutely saturated outside with this rain. Even if there was significant snowfall I just can't see any meaningful amount settling.

I'm not expecting anything on the ground here in south-east Meath anyway although there could be flakes mixed in with the rain. The ground is totally saturated and not cold after several very mild days.

Currently awful conditions outside, very windy, large pools of surface water and sideways rain with bits of sleet in it.

Tyrone212

A wet ground aids evaporative cooling so I believe.

Meteorite58

The WRF not holding back, temperatures about cold enough to hold wet snow on the ground for a time I would imagine if enough falls. Quite sleety in lots of places . Not the drier type snow like of last week, much wetter it would seem. Big temperature contrast with the SW by tomorrow evening, could be as much as 10C or so .

Pangea

Bone dry here in Donegal for a change.

Gonzo

horrendous conditions here in Meath. Sideways rain which is turning more towards general sleet. Driveway flooded and garden is a swampy mess. If conditions were better this would have been a full scale blizzard.

Oscar Bravo

Dublin airport TAF has rain turning to Sleet tomorrow between 10am and midday

BECMG 3108/3110 -RA BKN012 TEMPO 3110/3112 3000 RASN BKN005

pauldry

4.5c in Sligo

I think it will only drop to 3c tonight as way to windy so probably sleet here but inland may see snow before morning

Nqp15hhu

The sun is out here! Nice cool, and crisp day. You would never know there was a front to the south.

pad199207

Dry here in Kildare now but bitter

PokeHerKing

Raindrops in D24 have started to get a heavy look to them, bot sure id call it sleet but its getting there.

Slashermcguirk

Horizontal hail and sleet in D5. Feels like I am on the west coast on one of those really blustery days

Oneiric 3

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

Horizontal hail and sleet in D5. Feels like I am on the west coast on one of those really blustery days

Oh you soft east coastians.. what are you like, eh? :P

Donegal Ken

Latest ukv high resolution run. Attached precipitation type and air temperatures for Sunday morning.

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Donegal Ken

Latest Ukv run for Monday night Tuesday morning showing heavy snowfall across Ulster.

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pad199207

pad199207 wrote: »

Dry here in Kildare now but bitter

Not stopped here 28.2mm so far
Working out in in
Thank God the tractor has a good heater
Its on full belt competing with the wipers

Tyrone212

Donegal Ken wrote: »

Latest ukv high resolution run. Attached precipitation type and air temperatures for Sunday morning.

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Seems to go against what M.E are saying with wintry falls lingering in the far North West . Doesn't make it to the far North West on that.

Nqp15hhu

Most models do not have the fronts reaching here, aside from on Tuesday.

Donegal Ken

Status Yellow - Snow/Ice warning for Connacht, Cavan, Monaghan, Donegal, Dublin, Carlow, Kildare, Laois, Longford, Louth, Wicklow, Offaly, Westmeath and Meath

Met Éireann Weather Warning

Wintry falls with some accumulations possible.

Valid: 06:00 Sunday 31/01/2021 to 18:00 Sunday 31/01/2021

Issued: 13:00 Saturday 30/01/2021

nacho libre

Donegal Ken wrote: »

Latest Ukv run for Monday night Tuesday morning showing heavy snowfall across Ulster.

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If this cold block has any robustness to it, i'd like to think that will end up trending further south. Also given earlier in the week these fronts were suppose to easily make it northwards it might just happen yet

Donegal Ken

Going by the latest Met Éireann HARMONIE model run it shows snow across much of Leinster, Connacht and west Ulster tomorrow morning. Then over the afternoon snow and sleet turning back to rain across the south but sleet and snow continuing across north and east Connacht, north Leinster and south / west Ulster.