Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

Seth Brundle · 26-01-2021 5:30pm

Christ Almighty, I can't help thinking of pre-WWII Germany with some of what is going on over there.

The problem with a policy like that is that it will only serve to encourage those who are in a position (financially and professionally) to completely relocate and will in all likleihood leave the lower paid in GB. What good is that?

sondagefaux · 26-01-2021 5:46pm

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

This is not 'a dirty trick'.

'GB' is the ISO two-character code for your country, it's not 'UK'.
Getting your country code and your product codes/category codes correct is a really basic thing that you just have to get right in business.

And products from Northern Ireland are Single Market products while British products are not. So labelling something as being from the UK is no longer valid when it comes to exporting to the Single Market.

As for the only 1kg or 2kg over issue, if every time a consignment of goods was bigger than its declared size, but just waved through anyway, why bother with any customs controls at all?

These are examples of an EU member state taking control over its borders, laws and money.

Brexiteers are supposedly in favour of these things.

Or is it only when Britain does it?

sondagefaux · 26-01-2021 6:05pm

RobMc59 wrote: »

As I've said twice, I believe its far too early to call brexit,probably won't get a reasonably accurate assessment for a number of years.
The UK market is attractive to all potential partners,its up to the UK negotiating teams to see what's in it for the UK. For example,wine or meat could be cheaper from South America or Australia and as long quality isn't comprimised could be a potentially good thing for the UK.

The EU has agreed a trade agreement with Mercosur, a group of South American states, which includes Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay and Paraguay.

The EU-Mercosur agreement has yet to be ratified.

Argentina has now said that it won't agree to any more trade agreements for the time being, but that it will work to ratify the trade agreements with the EU and EFTA.

The UK is not going to be getting any trade agreement with Mercosur until Argentina changes its mind.

The EU is already negotiating trsde agreements with Australia and Nrw Zealand.

In any case, certain amounts (known as quotas) of differerent agricultural products from Australia and New Zealand, including beef and lamb, can be inported into the EU under a special tariff-rate of 0%.

These tariff-rate quotas have been in place for decades.

As far as quality is concerned, just like all products imported into the EU, meat and other food from.all these countries and elsewhere must meet EU standards before being sold in the EU.

Meat from most non-EU countries is subject to a 30% physical inspection rate on arrival in the EU.

But New Zealand has signed a veterinary agreement with the EU and agreed that its standards are equivalent to the EU standards.

So only 1% of most meat consignments from New Zealand are subject to physical inspection on arrival in the EU, compared to 30% of British consignments, as the UK decided against committing to standards equivalent to the EU's.

The Level-Playing Field provisions should keep it broadly in line with the EU, unless it decides that cheap meat imports are more important than tariff-free exports to the EU.

McFly85 · 26-01-2021 6:20pm

It has been predicted countless times over the course of these threads so it's not surprising to hear Brexit issues being described as EU dirty tricks. We knew all issues with Brexit would be blamed on the EU.

I find it fascinating though how the criteria to determine if Brexit is a success has changed over the last 4 years. It has gone from holding all the cards and having virtually all areas of British life be immeasurably improved to "well the sky hasn't fallen in".

I suspect that in a few years, the UK will probably be getting on OK, though still worse off in a lot of areas than if they had stayed in the EU. You will still have the hardcore describing it as the best possible thing they could have done, and that it has worked out amazingly, regardless as to how they are doing in comparison to their EU counterparts, and possibly how many countries are left in the union at that stage.

breatheme · 26-01-2021 6:32pm

I'll play devil's advocate and say: the UK is vaccinating at much faster speeds than the EU.

swampgas · 26-01-2021 6:38pm

breatheme wrote: »

I'll play devil's advocate and say: the UK is vaccinating at much faster speeds than the EU.

By taking risks, it seems - rushing out the first dose, and waiting twelve weeks instead of three for the second dose. It may work, but it hasn't been tested very much.

Like many things done by the current UK government, it seems to be driven more by optics than science. They may get lucky, and it may work out, but it could be disastrous too.

https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n226
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/24/vaccine-experts-on-uk-12-week-covid-jab-interval

Seth Brundle · 26-01-2021 6:51pm

breatheme wrote: »

I'll play devil's advocate and say: the UK is vaccinating at much faster speeds than the EU.

...by recklessly ignoring medical advice and the manufacturers guidelines...
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/coronavirus-pfizer-vaccine-second-dose-time-b1791622.html

mod: anyhow, we're discussing Brexit and not the vaccinations. Let's get back on topic (me included)

Capt'n Midnight · 26-01-2021 8:31pm

breatheme wrote: »

I'll play devil's advocate and say: the UK is vaccinating at much faster speeds than the EU.

The UK chose to pay well over the odds to get early access.

Because of Brexit they'd have to pay a little extra anyway because of volume pricing.

And because of Brexit UK consumers will likely have to pay a little extra on lots of things.

BonnieSituation · 26-01-2021 8:40pm

Cookie_Monster wrote: »

Interesting that its framed as Scottish independence but Irish re-union, not even considering the concept of independence for northern Ireland. Would have been an interesting alternative line of questioning to include, see how the numbers changed.

Independence for the north isn't an option.

No one is pushing for it for a start and it is in contravention of the GFA.

Capt'n Midnight · 26-01-2021 8:44pm

sondagefaux wrote: »

As for the only 1kg or 2kg over issue, if every time a consignment of goods was bigger than its declared size, but just waved through anyway, why bother with any customs controls at all?

+1

Remind me of what the new limit is on UK imports ? Be a bit rich asking for exemptions when you don't offer any.

The GBP15 Low Value Consignment Relief on imported goods will cease to apply.
...
There is no minimum VAT registration threshold for non-UK established sellers

CelticRambler · 26-01-2021 9:36pm

RobMc59 wrote: »

As I've said twice, I believe its far too early to call brexit,probably won't get a reasonably accurate assessment for a number of years.

What number? We're now into year 5 of Brexit - should we wait until JRM's 50-year milestone before completing our assessement?

RobMc59 wrote: »

The UK market is attractive to all potential partners,its up to the UK negotiating teams to see what's in it for the UK. For example,wine or meat could be cheaper from South America or Australia and as long quality isn't comprimised could be a potentially good thing for the UK.

OK - so can you explain then why the British government (Tory MPs in particular) refuse to rule out dropping standards? And given that they have gone to great lengths to ensure that they have the freedom to compromise on quality (defying farmers, customers and the Lords) without further parliamentary oversight, how much of a "potentially good" thing do you seriously believe this is likely to be? Bearing in mind that the export-health-cert problems are also a direct outcome of the government's refusal to commit to maintaining current standards?

RobMc59 wrote: »

So do you think what is happening now is how things are going to remain?

It's what Johnson signed up for - why wouldn't it? The rule-book has been written; so unless you think that this government or the next is going to re-open the FTA negotiations, what's happening now is what's going to happen for the foreseeable future.

Lest there be any doubt, don't forget that when Brexiter were yakking on about seamless trade and invisible borders controlled by AI, we were able to provide dozens of examples of existing borders elsewhere where there were all the same problems that we're seeing at the GB-EU frontier. Most of those other borders are between trading blocs that have better relationships than GB-EU, so there is no prospect of things improving, other than people getting used to filling in reams of documents.

RobMc59 wrote: »

Even in my lifetime,I can remember meat and fruit from Australia and New Zealand amongst other countries before the EU.

This is a classic Brexiter argument: I remember how things were before things were different. The EU is. By dint of its existence and its enormous influence on the rest of the world, whatever you remember from before doesn't apply any more. Nations across the globe choose to align themselves with EU standards because it makes life easier for them (and they happen to be, for the most part, the highest international standards - so you can always trade down if you want to do a deal with, say, the US).

I know you've repeatedly asserted your belief that GB can make the best of the bad hand the ERG/Brexit Party dealt it, but the depressing reality is that enough of your countrymen voted for this government despite Johnson's utter contempt for Parliament, the Queen and traditional British "fair play" - so there's no reason to think that there's more than enough of a critical mass of voters to keep the Good Ship Britannia sailing off towards the edge of the world in search of Atlantis or some other mythical continent.

prawnsambo · 26-01-2021 10:33pm

RobMc59 wrote: »

So do you think what is happening now is how things are going to remain?There are obviously initial problems and UK traders have been slow getting their act together,combined with the alleged 'dirty tricks 'being used(shipments a kg over refused,GB sticker instead of UK etc)
Even in my lifetime,I can remember meat and fruit from Australia and New Zealand amongst other countries before the EU. The UK can trade with whomever it pleases which is fine as long as quality and standards aren't compromised.

Meat, fruit and vegetables are (relatively) easy to import. The problem is getting those commodities with a short shelf life in through all the red tape and delays before it starts to rot. And that's not even the real problem. The issue now is that every import carries an overhead made up of multiple costs and multiple time elements. Added together they can create a situation where it just isn't feasible to do it. In either direction. For many EU exporters, it's far more economical to just stop supplying the UK and concentrate on the markets it has that are easier to reach. For UK exporters and their customers in the EU, the same is true. Rules of origin are complex, exhaustive and almost impenetrable to the everyday business.

Online sales from the UK (the bread and butter of many a small business) are just drying up. Carriers who'd normally charge a small amount for an average delivery are now having to add an overhead charge for the paperwork before they even stick it on a truck. And the carriage cost now includes waiting time at the border. Small food exporters are done. They can't expect their £25 order to shoulder what could be double or triple the price in export health certificates etc. These issues aren't 'teething problems', they are here to stay.

This article gives some insight into the permanence of these 'teething problems':

The reality of Brexit is much, much worse than we economists warned about. It goes like this. The British economy is starting to shut down like a heart attack. Europe is simply stopping sending goods to Britain, and Britain to Europe. The costs involved have soared from “nothing” to “impossible.”

We're in the very early days. There's a lot worse to come.

ancapailldorcha · 27-01-2021 12:57am

Mod: Please do not dump links here. Post removed.

Bigus · 27-01-2021 10:45am

I just heard that , Apart from extra tariffs and Vat , used car importers here in Ireland have to bear an increase from €300 to €900 in transport charges for unaccompanied cars.

I presume this increase is due to admin cost plus time delays/inefficiencies, therefore extra costs.

Akrasia · 27-01-2021 11:25am

RobMc59 wrote: »

As I've said twice, I believe its far too early to call brexit,probably won't get a reasonably accurate assessment for a number of years.
The UK market is attractive to all potential partners,its up to the UK negotiating teams to see what's in it for the UK. For example,wine or meat could be cheaper from South America or Australia and as long quality isn't comprimised could be a potentially good thing for the UK.

Its too early to say if the brexit disease is terminal, or merely debilitating

But it's fairly certain already that it is a disease that will at the very minimum weaken the 'United Kingdom'

It's pretty ironic that it's called Brexit when it dragged Northern Ireland out of the EU when they're not even a part of Britain
What it's likely to end up doing is ending the 'united kingdom' and possibly splitting Great Britain

mrunsure · 27-01-2021 11:56am

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

And in a number of years, the brexiteers will say maybe the decline that happens after Brexit would have happened anyway, no way to tell.

I think this is the huge problem for people like me who want to get back into the EU. It is impossible to live in two separate universes simultaneously, one inside and one outside the EU. Unless there is a monumental economic catastrophe in the UK whilst the EU prospers spectacularly. And even then the Brexiteers will still have excuses.

The best hope is for a break up of the UK. People can then move to Scotland. I would expect Scottish nationality to be automatically conferred on people living there at the time of independence.

schmoo2k · 27-01-2021 12:01pm

Akrasia wrote: »

Its too early to say if the brexit disease is terminal, or merely debilitating

But it's fairly certain already that it is a disease that will at the very minimum weaken the 'United Kingdom'

It's pretty ironic that it's called Brexit when it dragged Northern Ireland out of the EU when they're not even a part of Britain
What it's likely to end up doing is ending the 'united kingdom' and possibly splitting Great Britain

More sovereignty and happy Scottish Fish, sounds like a bigger win?

Seriously though - while it is a lose lose scenario for the UK (and the EU) I can sympathise with the generation who lived through the hey day of the British Empire and even during the post WW2 depression there would have been huge sense of national pride (and ruling the world) etc. Add to that 50 years of anti EU sentiments from the right leaning press and its very understandable how the UK got to where they are today.

If the end result is a UK with a slightly worse GDP, but with a better sense of Identity and Nationalism I suspect it would be seen as an overall win (but its is a pretty big IF). Time will tell, they need to survive the teething period first...

tubercolossus · 27-01-2021 12:12pm

Akrasia wrote: »

It's pretty ironic that it's called Brexit when it dragged Northern Ireland out of the EU when they're not even a part of Britain

Er, I rather think it is part of Britain, actually.

The Raging Bile Duct · 27-01-2021 12:12pm

schmoo2k wrote: »

Seriously though - while it is a lose lose scenario for the UK (and the EU) I can sympathise with the generation who lived through the hey day of the British Empire and even during the post WW2 depression there would have been huge sense of national pride (and ruling the world) etc. Add to that 50 years of anti EU sentiments from the right leaning press and its very understandable how the UK got to where they are today.

The wartime generation were more almost as pro EU as the millennials according to the LSE. National pride wouldn't outweigh peace to them.

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2019/04/05/britains-wartime-generation-are-almost-as-pro-eu-as-millennials/

breezy1985 · 27-01-2021 12:14pm

schmoo2k wrote: »

More sovereignty and happy Scottish Fish, sounds like a bigger win?

Seriously though - while it is a lose lose scenario for the UK (and the EU) I can sympathise with the generation who lived through the hey day of the British Empire and even during the post WW2 depression there would have been huge sense of national pride (and ruling the world) etc. Add to that 50 years of anti EU sentiments from the right leaning press and its very understandable how the UK got to where they are today.

If the end result is a UK with a slightly worse GDP, but with a better sense of Identity and Nationalism I suspect it would be seen as an overall win (but its is a pretty big IF). Time will tell, they need to survive the teething period first...

Those people who lived through empire are dead and dying . Many young people who have to bear the brunt of this for years see their national identity as part of the EU so they now have to suffer through a mess of a country based on a fantasy they dont relate too.

And I have no sympathy for people who cant think for themselves and just follow the rags

prawnsambo · 27-01-2021 12:15pm

This article gives an idea of what's needed for plants and seeds imported into the UK. Over half of UK seeds are imported, mostly from the EU.

He lists the items they now need to import seeds. An EORI number, to use the PEACH system, the Defra system that connects to CHIEF, the Customs and Excise system for horticulture. Then eDomero registration, an online system for applying for plant passports and other services. Then an application for Place of Destination, that permits customs inspection at the company warehouse instead of the Port of Entry. Except, Mr Arrigo says, there probably aren’t any customs agents in Harrow and they don’t know how long it might take for one to come and clear goods. Next, he says, they need plant passports. The EU uses these, and the seed industry likes them. They are “a track and trace system that works. They can keep track of diseases, say brown rugoze virus on tomatoes. We have to list every person we have supplied to. A bit heavy handed but necessary so we don’t spread diseases”.

Plant passports lead to phytosanitary certificates, which cost €35 a pop (£100 if exporting from the UK, which “rules out all mail order to the EU, even the big boys. Only large orders to garden centres make it worthwhile now really”). He continues “None of these were needed before as we were like one country with no borders”. And of course, Arrigo adds, “We need shipping agents”. Agents are essential to dealing with all the new paperwork and procedures. All of this has costs.

The Raging Bile Duct · 27-01-2021 12:15pm

tubercolossus wrote: »

Er, I rather think it is part of Britain, actually.

It's a very pedantic point. Nothern Ireland is part of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland so in that regard you could say that Northern Ireland isn't a part of Great Britain but part of the UK.

prawnsambo · 27-01-2021 12:17pm

tubercolossus wrote: »

Er, I rather think it is part of Britain, actually.

Geographically NI is not part of Great Britain. It's probably semantics, but the country's name is the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

Akrasia · 27-01-2021 12:19pm

breezy1985 wrote: »

I notice the "wait and see" theory has become the new tagline for brexiters. It's been popping up.a lot recently especially with supposedly neutral posters

Wait and see works great for people who are either in denial, or lack any kind of critical thinking skills

It happened when Trump was elected 'Lets wait and see, maybe he'll suddenly become presidential'

It happens all the time with climate change 'cities aren't underwater yet, lets wait and see until they are, and then decide if climate change is real or not'

It happens with brexit
"yes thousands of businesses have shut down, inward investment has collapsed, the value of our currency has fallen massively, supermarket shelves are empty, the freight industry is on it's knees, tourism, music, arts, sports, farming, fishing, finance industries etc etc all facing increased costs, increased red tape, reduced marketing opportunities for the foreseeable future.... But lets 'wait and see' if this thing is going to be positive or negative'

Wait until it's no longer even a question worth asking and then pretend that either they've believed it all along, or that it's some kind of conspiracy

breezy1985 · 27-01-2021 12:20pm

The Raging Bile Duct wrote: »

The wartime generation were more almost as pro EU as the millennials according to the LSE. National pride wouldn't outweigh peace to them.

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2019/04/05/britains-wartime-generation-are-almost-as-pro-eu-as-millennials/

I wouldnt put much faith in that article given how the vote went

http://www.politico.eu/article/graphics-how-the-uk-voted-eu-referendum-brexit-demographics-age-education-party-london-final-results/

yagan · 27-01-2021 12:25pm

mrunsure wrote: »

Unless there is a monumental economic catastrophe in the UK whilst the EU prospers spectacularly.

The main point of the EU is continental social stability so even just boring domestic humdrum is success.

The Brexiters pushed the lie that the EU was responsible for the societal iniquity in the UK.

The Raging Bile Duct · 27-01-2021 12:27pm

breezy1985 wrote: »

I wouldnt put much faith in that article given how the vote went

http://www.politico.eu/article/graphics-how-the-uk-voted-eu-referendum-brexit-demographics-age-education-party-london-final-results/

I can't see anything wrong with the article. They took a look at the over 65 group and drilled down into it rather than taking it as one homogenous group. The wartime generation aren't really going to make a large percentage of that over 65 group because, let's face it, most of them are dead.

Charles Babbage · 27-01-2021 12:27pm

tubercolossus wrote: »

Er, I rather think it is part of Britain, actually.

No. It is part of the UK, which is of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
Britain is the other bit.

54and56 · 27-01-2021 12:28pm

tubercolossus wrote: »

Er, I rather think it is part of Britain, actually.

Nope, Britain is Scotland, Wales and England.

The UK (United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland) is a seperate entity.

The Raging Bile Duct · 27-01-2021 12:29pm

yagan wrote: »

The main point of the EU is continental social stability so even just boring domestic humdrum is success.

The Brexiters pushed the lie that the EU was responsible for the societal iniquity in the UK.

While EU funds were being used to regenerate the areas that were left to fall apart in Thatcher's Britain. Isn't it ironic, don't you think.

It's like raaaaaaaaa-iiiii-aaaiiiinnnnn on your wedding day!

Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

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