2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

schmittel wrote: »

Nothing elitist or clairvoyant about it. I posted it in direct response to:



Villa05 has more cop on than most IMO and he seemed surprised.

There are plenty of other posters on here who are underestimating how price sensitive your average 800k+ buyer is, and many who are relying on these higher earners to continue to prop up the top end of the SCD semi D market.

I get the sense a lot of existing owners in this market are banking on the greater fool theory. For sure somebody is going to be the greatest fool, but I think it is naive to bank on the younger generation of high earners being that fool.

Apologies if I misinterpreted your posts but they read to me like you were saying high earners are more clued into value than average or below average earners. A statement i wouldn't agree with.

If your intention was solely to point out money makes money and high earners have more options available to them then I completely agree. But would argue its like saying fire burns, you don't need to point it out to anyone other than children.

Villa05 wrote: »

So a family go out of their way to help house disadvantaged family members.

The state itself would have an obligation to help house these people.

The state then places multiple obstacles, penalties and taxes that prevent Famiy members from helping each other where the state has abysmally failed.

The state then gives tax breaks long term leases, anti competitive monopolistic practices to the wealthiest institutions to buy up property and promote inflation in prices and rents


Mod's, Hubertj and anyone else
This is not a conspiracy theory. This is Fact

You’re trying to pull inheritance tax into this now? Wow

BredonWimsey wrote: »

how is it a conspiracy to state that tax laws are affecting a disadvantaged person erroneously.


or is it your perspective that any person who sees something from a different angle than yourself must be wearing a tin foil hat.


the whole point of these community forums is to have opinions and to explore ideas and to look at things outside your bubble otherwise you may as well talk to everyone in your bubble all day long and never be exposed to another point of view.



but maybe you just want to see things from your own point of view.

Regarding inheritance tax or capital acquisitions tax or whatever you want to call it, the bands are clear to all and apply to all in the same way. They do not consider the type of asset or gift being given and they can’t. To assert they are constructed to benefit the property market is ridiculous. Many people have to sell property, take out mortgages etc to discharge tax liability.
When my father died, my brother lived with him. He had to sell the house he lived in to discharge his tax liability because he was unable to afford the mortgage. This has nothing to do with the property market. I know it is sh*t and I saw it first hand.

Rents ‘set to rise again’ as increasing numbers of landlords sell up

Residential estate expert at Sherry FitzGerald says a third of its sales are through private landlords exiting the market

“The rental position is still quite precarious. We still see this very high volume of exits of private investors from the marketplace, even in the last 12 months, because of the very high tax take on rental income.”

Figures produced by the Residential Tenancies Board show that the total number of landlords associated with registered homes declined from 212,000 in 2012 to 169,000 in 2019.

https://www.businesspost.ie/houses/rents-set-to-rise-again-as-increasing-numbers-of-landlords-sell-up-a9def7e0

fago wrote: »

These properties don't disappear into the ether so surely they help the apt/starter home market.
I read all of the 2021 predictions/shills and don't recall any of the same agents mentioning supply being helped by the increase in rentals for sale.
I've seen one auctioneer in a local paper predict flat for 2021, but then 4% in a national paper.
Even within Ireland there's a good few micro markets, in my opinion you re best off understand where you are buying what sells, what struggles and watch the PPR.

Yeah just trying to spin a story to keep people paying inflated rents. Many of these sales are to new landlords...they never seem to mention that! It’s like saying “home owners are exiting the market as they’re selling their houses”

Was chatting to a mate who's an estate agent. Says he has a house for sale, 6 bidders all over asking price. No one has been in the house as showings aren't permitted. Mad!

Villa05 wrote: »

Nope, but that particular case touched a nerve
There plenty in my earlier post that you replied to without bringing anything else into it.

You commented on an article specifically relating to inheritance tax. It “touched a nerve” with me too but I know it’s unrelated to the property market so irrelevant to whatever point you were trying to make.

Graham wrote: »

I can't see what to be honest, I'm fairly certain the legality of the REITs was fairly closely examined beforehand.

I think it's fair to say most private landlords aren't leaving the market because of the tax treatment of REITs anyway. More the imbalance in the landlord/tenants rights and to a lesser extent the now counterproductive RPZs.

I would be surprised if there is a drop in the overall no of rental properties as a lot of the new builds will be adding to the rental Stock. I think what we are seeing is a shift away from BTL investors to Institutional investors.

Graham wrote: »

I strongly suspect the reason it's not mentioned is because it's not happening.

The number of private tenancies has been decreasing by 5000 - 8000 a year for the last few years.

Number of registered tenancies Q3 2017: 341,000
Number of registered landlords Q3 2017: 176,000

Number of registered tenancies Q3 2020: 332,000
Number of registered landlords Q3 2020: 166,000

Given that there’s been very little (if any) media news stories of queues of people looking to rent over the past 3 years, I would reckon it’s more due to more and more renters buying homes over the past few years and exiting the rental market.

The relatively small decline in the number of landlords is probably due to them now selling due to being finally able to sell and pay back those Celtic tiger loans than the “unfair” tax system.

Also, the decline in the number of registered landlords is not as correlated with the decline in the number of available rental properties as in the past due to the rise of the more professional landlord who own several rental properties instead of one or two.

The rise of AirBnB over the past number of years also probably accounts for a significant number in the “decline” in the number of registered landlords IMO

Link to RTB here: https://www.rtb.ie/research/rtb-registration-statistics

Graham wrote: »

I've no doubt REITs are taking up some of the slack from departing private landlords and reducing the reliance on private landlords was one of the aims of the tax treatment.

Problem 1 is private landlords are leaving faster than their rental properties are being replaced (by REITs).

Problem 2 is the REITS are obviously concentrating on the most profitable cities.

Problem 3 is the REITs are concentrating on the higher end of the market.

Problem 4 is the REITs are setting a floor on rents at much higher levels than previously existed

A lot of people were crying out for professional landlords to come in and 'modernise' the Irish rental scene.

Hows that working out!