2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

Hubertj · 24-01-2021 03:40PM

schmittel wrote: »

Whether they are fantasy or not, they might be gaining traction - below is a January 2018 opinion poll based on housing tenure. Poll taken in last days of Gerry Adam's SF leadership, so presumably they are more voter friendly now:

<SNIP>

No wonder FF/FG keen to do whatever it takes to get more people owning houses, even if it means buying 30% of it for them!

Of course such policies gain traction. It’s easy to promise the sun moon and stars especially when you see the balls up that has been made of it.

Look at other headlines relating to the property market recently - “prices” increasing 6%-7%.... people go mad about it..... it’s only people who look past the headline realise it’s just asking prices etc.

So you get SF rolling out a lad that can actually speak properly and doesn’t have a criminal background (that we know of). He promises cheap and/or free houses for all..... of course people pay attention. But he’s lying..... just like people saying shared equity and other policies won’t increase prices.

hometruths · 24-01-2021 03:44PM

Hubertj wrote: »

Of course such policies gain traction. It’s easy to promise the sun moon and stars especially when you see the balls up that has been made of it.

Look at other headlines relating to the property market recently - “prices” increasing 6%-7%.... people go mad about it..... it’s only people who look past the headline realise it’s just asking prices etc.

So you get SF rolling out a lad that can actually speak properly and doesn’t have a criminal background (that we know of). He promises cheap and/or free houses for all..... of course people pay attention. But he’s lying..... just like people saying shared equity and other policies won’t increase prices.

Of course he won't be able to deliver cheap/free houses to all, but if he implements policies that makes your house and my house relatively cheaper a lot of his base will consider that a good start!

bluelamp · 24-01-2021 03:46PM

schmittel wrote: »

People on big money are a lot more price sensitive than most realise. I've made this point a few times against the sure we have plenty of high earners in MNCs to keep the show on the road logic.

This.

The high earning / high wealth individuals didn't generally get there by making poor financial choices. I'd imagine they would be the last people to be ripped off.

BredonWimsey · 24-01-2021 03:48PM

bluelamp wrote: »

This.

The high earning / high wealth individuals didn't generally get there by making poor financial choices. I'd imagine they would be the last people to be ripped off.

on the other hand - they may have so much money they dont know what to do with it or its family money so they have no attachment to it. Its a bit more nuanced i think. older people also with alot of money are swindled all the time. Also have you heard of Catfishing. Yup its a thing. so happens across the board regardless of bracket.

anyway i need to go and count my millions - i'll be right back.

hometruths · 24-01-2021 03:58PM

BredonWimsey wrote: »

on the other hand - they may have so much money they dont know what to do with it or its family money so they have no attachment to it. Its a bit more nuanced i think. older people also with alot of money are swindled all the time. Also have you heard of Catfishing. Yup its a thing. so happens across the board regardless of bracket.

anyway i need to go and count my millions - i'll be right back.

If you've got so much money you don't know what to do with it, I can guarantee you're not buying 180 sq m semi d's in Booterstown!

BredonWimsey · 24-01-2021 04:02PM

schmittel wrote: »

If you've got so much money you don't know what to do with it, I can guarantee you're not buying 180 sq m semi d's in Booterstown!

maybe you do if you want to rent it out.

anywho i just dont think sweeping statements represent the ins and outs of all matters.

just my 2 million cents :pac:

PokeHerKing · 24-01-2021 04:04PM

schmittel wrote: »

People on big money are a lot more price sensitive than most realise. I've made this point a few times against the sure we have plenty of high earners in MNCs to keep the show on the road logic.

FTBs at the lower end of the market with 20% deposit and HTB and whatever shared equity etc are more sensitive to the amount they can borrow rather than the purchase price.

They calculate the max they can borrow as a multiple of salary under the CBI rules and work backwards, then calculating the deposit they need for 20% and get saving. If that works out at buying power of 350k they start looking at properties to bid up to 350k on. Purchase price sensitivity is out the window, they want to buy whatever they can for 350k, get on the ladder, stop paying the rent, sure the mortgage is cheaper.

However if you look at people paying 8/900k+ the rational is different. Because affordability is less of an issue, the pressure of getting out from under the landlord etc is not there, they will be much more value orientated in what they can get for their money. They are far more likely to say - Hang on, this is the guts of 1m for 180sq m semi d with a pokey back garden, do I really need to be in this location, surely I can do better than that for my budget?

DataDude and friends a case in point.

To sum up what you've said there is more money equals more options. Hardly a revelation.

hometruths · 24-01-2021 04:06PM

PokeHerKing wrote: »

To sum up what you've said there is more money equals more options. Hardly a revelation.

You'd be surprised how many posters on here don't get it.

BredonWimsey · 24-01-2021 04:07PM

schmittel wrote: »

You'd be surprised how many posters on here don't get it.

you teach them - obi wan kenobi

DataDude · 24-01-2021 04:08PM

schmittel wrote: »

People on big money are a lot more price sensitive than most realise. I've made this point a few times against the sure we have plenty of high earners in MNCs to keep the show on the road logic.

FTBs at the lower end of the market with 20% deposit and HTB and whatever shared equity etc are more sensitive to the amount they can borrow rather than the purchase price.

They calculate the max they can borrow as a multiple of salary under the CBI rules and work backwards, then calculating the deposit they need for 20% and get saving. If that works out at buying power of 350k they start looking at properties to bid up to 350k on. Purchase price sensitivity is out the window, they want to buy whatever they can for 350k, get on the ladder, stop paying the rent, sure the mortgage is cheaper.

However if you look at people paying 8/900k+ the rational is different. Because affordability is less of an issue, the pressure of getting out from under the landlord etc is not there, they will be much more value orientated in what they can get for their money. They are far more likely to say - Hang on, this is the guts of 1m for 180sq m semi d with a pokey back garden, do I really need to be in this location, surely I can do better than that for my budget?

DataDude and friends a case in point.

Nail on the head.

At risk of making myself completely identifiable to my friends who follow this forum:

As well as my professional circle of very high earners, we have another circle of friends on my partner's side who would have a more typical income profile. In my circle, there are two home owners out of 8/9 individuals. In my partners circle we are the only ones who who are not.

They fit precisely into your description above and often ask us "so, when do you think you'll be able to buy". I'd usually deflect not wanting to cast any negative sentiment on their recent purchase, but when pushed I might say something like

"oh well we're just not sure now is the right time, Dublin seemed to hit peak affordability in late 2018 and I guess I have some concerns about where the economy goes from here and particularly any tax hikes coming down the road"

I may as well be speaking German with the looks I get. Not that our approach is "better" (in fact if things keep on going this way, perhaps we are the fools) but for them it has always been a case of "I need to save X amount, I immediately run to the bank and take as big a mortgage as I possibly can and buy whatever that will get me". The idea that people who can buy, don't and are happy to wait and see is completely foreign to them.

The luxury of being able to buy is directly correlated with not feeling the need to buy.

And to add to that, I often read on various property forums comments like "ah well if you can afford to pay €1m you won't mind paying €1.2m, money is not an issue". From all my experiences, that is complete nonsense.

BredonWimsey · 24-01-2021 04:12PM

DataDude wrote: »

Nail on the head.

At risk of making myself completely identifiable to my friends who follow this forum:

As well as my professional circle of very high earners, we have another circle of friends on my partner's side who would have a more typical income profile. In my circle, there are two home owners out of 8/9 individuals. In my partners circle we are the only ones who who are not.

They fit precisely into your description above and often ask us "so, when do you think you'll be able to buy". I'd usually deflect not wanting to cast any negative sentiment on their recent purchase, but when pushed I might say something like

"oh well we're just not sure now is the right time, Dublin seemed to hit peak affordability in late 2018 and I guess I have some concerns about where the economy goes from here and particularly any tax hikes coming down the road"

I may as well be speaking German with the looks I get. Not that our approach is "better" (in fact if things keep on going this way, perhaps we are the fools) but for them it has always been a case of "I need to save X amount, I immediately run to the bank and take as big a mortgage as I possibly can and buy whatever that will get me". The idea that people who can buy, don't and are happy to wait and see is completely foreign to them.

The luxury of being able to buy is directly correlated with not feeling the need to buy.

And to add to that, I often read on various property forums comments like "ah well if you can afford to pay €1m you won't mind paying €1.2m, money is not an issue". From all my experiences, that is complete nonsense.

actually I think you have hit the nail on the head and seems a very accurate assessment - but I also think - the mentality to buy is not as strong as either in a geographical or generational context, people are not as obsessed with THE LAND THE LAND THE LAND as prior generations - they are happy to rent, no attachments, can pick up and go and see you later. people have also lived abroad and know its better value to buy property in other countries. i mean what you spend for a house in ireland is ridiculous compared to buying abroad- its just not good value for money- ireland will be seeing a mass exodus when it opens back up after COVID for sure.

Villa05 · 24-01-2021 04:25PM

DataDude wrote:

I may as well be speaking German with the looks I get. Not that our approach is "better" (in fact if things keep on going this way, perhaps we are the fools) but for them it has always been a case of "I need to save X amount, I immediately run to the bank and take as big a mortgage as I possibly can and buy whatever that will get me". The idea that people who can buy, don't and are happy to wait and see is completely foreign to them.

Media influence,
Control supply
Push up rents/prices
Pressure purchase

Rinse Repeat untill the bubble pops

BredonWimsey · 24-01-2021 04:27PM

Villa05 wrote: »

Media influence,
Control supply
Push up rents/prices
Pressure purchase

Rinse Repeat untill the bubble pops

POP goes the weasel

Marius34 · 24-01-2021 04:40PM

schmittel wrote: »

Why do you think it is "surprisingly low"? What reason would you make you expect it might be higher?

There are hardly any of the reports stating that Dublin has high vacancy rate, where there are reports that states in opposite. Here is official report from European Commission:

"Mobilising the stock of vacant housing is unlikely
to alleviate the housing supply shortage. According
to GeoDirectory (9) data, in the second quarter of
2019, the average vacancy rate in Ireland was
relatively low, at 4.8%, with rates ranging from 1.2%
in Dublin to 15.2% in Leitrim. The vacancy rate was
low where demand for housing was most acute, such
as in the greater Dublin area (10)
, while high vacancy
rates were registered in rural counties with low
housing demand. The reutilisation of long-term
vacant properties in counties such as Cork or Galway
(with vacancy rates of respectively 4.1% and 6.6%),
where housing demand is increasing, may mitigate
the supply shortage. However, it is unlikely to
alleviate the supply shortage in the greater Dublin
area"

https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/economy-finance/eb061_en.pdf

hometruths · 24-01-2021 04:43PM

DataDude wrote: »

Nail on the head.

At risk of making myself completely identifiable to my friends who follow this forum:

As well as my professional circle of very high earners, we have another circle of friends on my partner's side who would have a more typical income profile. In my circle, there are two home owners out of 8/9 individuals. In my partners circle we are the only ones who who are not.

They fit precisely into your description above and often ask us "so, when do you think you'll be able to buy". I'd usually deflect not wanting to cast any negative sentiment on their recent purchase, but when pushed I might say something like

"oh well we're just not sure now is the right time, Dublin seemed to hit peak affordability in late 2018 and I guess I have some concerns about where the economy goes from here and particularly any tax hikes coming down the road"

I may as well be speaking German with the looks I get. Not that our approach is "better" (in fact if things keep on going this way, perhaps we are the fools) but for them it has always been a case of "I need to save X amount, I immediately run to the bank and take as big a mortgage as I possibly can and buy whatever that will get me". The idea that people who can buy, don't and are happy to wait and see is completely foreign to them.

The luxury of being able to buy is directly correlated with not feeling the need to buy.

And to add to that, I often read on various property forums comments like "ah well if you can afford to pay €1m you won't mind paying €1.2m, money is not an issue". From all my experiences, that is complete nonsense.

Exactly what you say is also why we see markets turn from the top down. Nobody feels pressured into buying in this price bracket.

hometruths · 24-01-2021 04:44PM

Marius34 wrote: »

There are hardly any of the reports stating that Dublin has high vacancy rate, where there are reports that states in opposite. Here is official report from European Commission:

"Mobilising the stock of vacant housing is unlikely
to alleviate the housing supply shortage. According
to GeoDirectory (9) data, in the second quarter of
2019, the average vacancy rate in Ireland was
relatively low, at 4.8%, with rates ranging from 1.2%
in Dublin to 15.2% in Leitrim. The vacancy rate was
low where demand for housing was most acute, such
as in the greater Dublin area (10)
, while high vacancy
rates were registered in rural counties with low
housing demand. The reutilisation of long-term
vacant properties in counties such as Cork or Galway
(with vacancy rates of respectively 4.1% and 6.6%),
where housing demand is increasing, may mitigate
the supply shortage. However, it is unlikely to
alleviate the supply shortage in the greater Dublin
area"

https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/economy-finance/eb061_en.pdf

Do you think 1.3% is surprisingly low?

Marius34 · 24-01-2021 04:52PM

schmittel wrote: »

Do you think 1.3% is surprisingly low?

Surprising or not surprising. But yes its low.

MacronvFrugals · 24-01-2021 05:45PM

Julien Mercile from UCD's Geary institute researches the incestuous relationship between Ireland's media and the property industry

He also spoke at lengths to the Public Accounts Committee a few years back

The Political Economy and Media Coverage of the European Economic Crisis : The Case of Ireland

https://www.bookdepository.com/Political-Economy-Media-Coverage-European-Economic-Crisis-Julien-Mercille/9780415721097?ref=grid-view&qid=1611506361588&sr=1-2

BredonWimsey · 24-01-2021 05:59PM

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Julien Mercile from UCD's Geary institute researches the incestuous relationship between Ireland's media and the property industry

He also spoke at lengths to the Public Accounts Committee a few years back

The Political Economy and Media Coverage of the European Economic Crisis : The Case of Ireland

https://www.bookdepository.com/Political-Economy-Media-Coverage-European-Economic-Crisis-Julien-Mercille/9780415721097?ref=grid-view&qid=1611506361588&sr=1-2

Look at this - them trying to deter people from buying houses at less than market value - doesnt fit the agenda does it.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/personal-finance/buying-mum-s-house-at-less-than-market-value-could-cause-tax-headaches-1.4466596

Pelezico · 24-01-2021 06:04PM

BredonWimsey wrote: »

Look at this - them trying to deter people from buying houses at less than market value - doesnt fit the agenda does it.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/personal-finance/buying-mum-s-house-at-less-than-market-value-could-cause-tax-headaches-1.4466596

Mother can sell at market price and gift daughter 50k.

BredonWimsey · 24-01-2021 06:07PM

Pelezico wrote: »

Mother can sell at market price and gift daughter 50k.

yeah exactly thats an option but selling below market value is an option also and the advise is like oh this is really difficult- people do it all the time

PokeHerKing · 24-01-2021 06:20PM

schmittel wrote: »

You'd be surprised how many posters on here don't get it.

Theres plenty of people on varying salary points unwilling to buy at certain price points. You and the other poster appear to be saying the only people who are aware or interested in market value are high earners which is complete ballix IMHO and sounds pretty elitist.

But it also doesn't take a genius to know the more money you have the more options there are available to you and if you don't fear being priced out then you can afford to wait.

Again nothing clairvoyant to that kind of reasoning, its fairly obvious to most people with any semblance of cop-on.

BredonWimsey · 24-01-2021 06:21PM

PokeHerKing wrote: »

Theres plenty of people on varying salary points unwilling to buy at certain price points. You and the other poster appear to be saying the only people who are aware or interested in market value are high earners which is complete ballix IMHO and sounds pretty elitist.

But it also doesn't take a genius to know the more money you have the more options there are available to you and if you don't fear being priced out then you can afford to wait.

Again nothing clairvoyant to that kind of reasoning, its fairly obvious to most people with any semblance of cop-on.

well said

MacronvFrugals · 24-01-2021 06:23PM

Mortgage rules raise doubts over shared equity housing scheme

The country’s main retail banks may be precluded from participating in the government’s proposed €75 million shared equity housing scheme under the Central Bank of Ireland’s existing mortgage rules, the Business Post has learned.

https://www.businesspost.ie/financial-services/mortgage-rules-raise-doubts-over-shared-equity-housing-scheme-33bd7418

Apologies if this was posted last week

Villa05 · 24-01-2021 06:23PM

BredonWimsey wrote:

Look at this - them trying to deter people from buying houses at less than market value - doesnt fit the agenda does it.

So a family go out of their way to help house disadvantaged family members.

The state itself would have an obligation to help house these people.

The state then places multiple obstacles, penalties and taxes that prevent Famiy members from helping each other where the state has abysmally failed.

The state then gives tax breaks long term leases, anti competitive monopolistic practices to the wealthiest institutions to buy up property and promote inflation in prices and rents

Mod's, Hubertj and anyone else
This is not a conspiracy theory. This is Fact

BredonWimsey · 24-01-2021 06:25PM

Villa05 wrote: »

So a family go out of their way to help house disadvantaged family members.

The state itself would have an obligation to help house these people.

The state then places multiple obstacles, penalties and taxes that prevent Famiy members from helping each other where the state has abysmally failed.

The state then gives tax breaks long term leases, anti competitive monopolistic practices to the wealthiest institutions to buy up property and promote inflation in prices and rents

Mod's, Hubertj and anyone else
This is not a conspiracy theory. This is Fact

Yes Yes Yes and here we have it ladies and gentleman the curtain is being opened! A Joke.

DataDude · 24-01-2021 06:37PM

PokeHerKing wrote: »

Theres plenty of people on varying salary points unwilling to buy at certain price points. You and the other poster appear to be saying the only people who are aware or interested in market value are high earners which is complete ballix IMHO and sounds pretty elitist.

But it also doesn't take a genius to know the more money you have the more options there are available to you and if you don't fear being priced out then you can afford to wait.

Again nothing clairvoyant to that kind of reasoning, its fairly obvious to most people with any semblance of cop-on.

I think in the context of commentary on property prices, it’s fair to say that someone spending 40% of their income on rent is likely to feel more pressured to buy that someone spending 10%.

Unfortunately that can lead to those who can least afford it, buying at worst times. Which is exactly what happened in the last crash when those in the upper ranges seemed to realise the party was over a few months before everyone else.

I can’t see how it’s elitist or unhelpful to make that parallel when we’re currently heading into a period of economic uncertainty and the media commentary is all about those who ‘normally wouldn’t be able to save have saved loads and are looking to pile that money into a scare number of properties leading to inflated asking prices’.

hometruths · 24-01-2021 07:02PM

PokeHerKing wrote: »

Theres plenty of people on varying salary points unwilling to buy at certain price points. You and the other poster appear to be saying the only people who are aware or interested in market value are high earners which is complete ballix IMHO and sounds pretty elitist.

But it also doesn't take a genius to know the more money you have the more options there are available to you and if you don't fear being priced out then you can afford to wait.

Again nothing clairvoyant to that kind of reasoning, its fairly obvious to most people with any semblance of cop-on.

Nothing elitist or clairvoyant about it. I posted it in direct response to:

Villa05 wrote: »

Interesting, I would have thought that an exodus from Dublin would be led and dominated by people priced out of the market. When you have the highest earners doing it we could have a very interesting few years ahead of us.

Villa05 has more cop on than most IMO and he seemed surprised.

There are plenty of other posters on here who are underestimating how price sensitive your average 800k+ buyer is, and many who are relying on these higher earners to continue to prop up the top end of the SCD semi D market.

I get the sense a lot of existing owners in this market are banking on the greater fool theory. For sure somebody is going to be the greatest fool, but I think it is naive to bank on the younger generation of high earners being that fool.

hometruths · 24-01-2021 07:06PM

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Mortgage rules raise doubts over shared equity housing scheme

https://www.businesspost.ie/financial-services/mortgage-rules-raise-doubts-over-shared-equity-housing-scheme-33bd7418

Apologies if this was posted last week

That's interesting, sadly don't have a sub so cannot read the entire. Kind of hard to argue that it is not just a ruse to circumvent the CBI rules in this context!

Timing belt · 24-01-2021 07:42PM

Zenify wrote: »

Sure I even believe their are paid posters here by some of the property interests. How crazy is that....? Some of the pro property posters here must honestly spend hours each day on here. Just look at some of the names and how often they post. That's how skeptical you can become.

The pay is not great in fairness.... we are thinking of going on strike for better pay

:D:D:D

2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1