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Covid 19 Part XXXI-187,554 ROI (2,970 deaths) 100,319 NI (1,730 deaths)(24/01)Read OP

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Comments

  • #8462
    Gruffalux
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,023 ✭✭✭Gruffalux


    seamus wrote: »
    We'll just have to figure it out. Stricter covid controls in the EU will be between states anyway, the issue of international travel is still down to each member state.

    The discussion at the moment is about finding ways to avoid closing borders, by having relatively common rules in neighbouring areas. It makes no sense, for example, for someone in Germany to be under severe restrictions with nothing open, if they can hop into Austria and go to the pub. Greater coordination of efforts can reduce the need for closing borders.

    Since we share no land borders with another EU country, this is less of an issue for us. There is little or no casual travel to and from the EU, and tracing all inbound passengers is very simple.

    If the stricter travel in EU is between states it will not be acceptable for Ireland to throw up its hand about the North. We will be a red list country.


  • #8463
    HansKroenke
    Closed Accounts Posts: 254 ✭✭HansKroenke


    Happydays2020 wrote: »
    At the end of all this we will be nowhere near the worst in Europe let alone elsewhere. We have provided some of the most comprehensive supports to individuals and business. Yes mistakes have been made but we have also got a lot right.

    I think the only reason our deaths are so high, looking at the age profile, is because of total failure to protect residential and care homes. This is a failure as the only vulnerable seem to be those in residential and care homes. A lack of a focused approach on those that are actually vulnerable and instead a blanket lockdown all of society is a failure. A 3rd lockdown in less than a year and a travel ban for Dublin residents for nearly 6 months now (except for a 3 week break) is more evidence of a failure in responding to the covid threat from NPHET and the government.


  • #8464
    MerlinSouthDub
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,627 ✭✭✭MerlinSouthDub


    seamus wrote: »
    We'll just have to figure it out. Stricter covid controls in the EU will be between states anyway, the issue of international travel is still down to each member state.

    To me, the thing that would make most sense would be for the EU to lock its border (i.e. 14 day compulsory Australia style quarantine for anyone entering any EU country from anywhere outside the EU). But that doesn't seem to be on the agenda.


  • #8465
    snotboogie
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,795 ✭✭✭snotboogie


    HansKroenke wrote: »
    I think the only reason our deaths are so high, looking at the age profile, is because of total failure to protect residential and care homes. This is a failure as the only vulnerable seem to be those in residential and care homes. A lack of a focused approach on those that are actually vulnerable and instead a blanket lockdown all of society is a failure. A 3rd lockdown in less than a year and a travel ban for Dublin residents for nearly 6 months now (except for a 3 week break) is more evidence of a failure in responding to the covid threat from NPHET and the government.

    This has been addressed over and over again. Who is going to look after the vulnerable in this scenario? Are we going to keep care home workers locked down with all of their staff? If they don't want to be locked away for years, do we force them to do the job?


  • #8466
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    snotboogie wrote: »
    This has been addressed over and over again. Who is going to look after the vulnerable in this scenario? Are we going to keep care home workers locked down with all of their staff? If they don't want to be locked away for years, do we force them to do the job?
    In about 4 weeks many of those should no longer be at risk.


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  • #8467
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    MerlinSouthDub wrote: »
    To me, the thing that would make most sense would be for the EU to lock its border (i.e. 14 day compulsory Australia style quarantine for anyone entering any EU country from anywhere outside the EU). But that doesn't seem to be on the agenda.

    I thought that some extra controls on non-EU traffic was on the agenda....Merkel and von der Leyen, when talking about testing regimes as a way to keep borders open, had referenced potential stricter restrictions on movement from outside of the EU.

    I don't see mandatory quarantining in a state facility though happening anywhere in Europe


  • #8468
    snotboogie
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,795 ✭✭✭snotboogie


    is_that_so wrote: »
    In about 4 weeks many of those should no longer be at risk.

    What??


  • #8469
    ZX7R
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,393 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    MerlinSouthDub wrote: »
    To me, the thing that would make most sense would be for the EU to lock its border (i.e. 14 day compulsory Australia style quarantine for anyone entering any EU country from anywhere outside the EU). But that doesn't seem to be on the agenda.

    I think that is exactly what will happen, its the easiest and most straightforward solution.
    I can see America doing the exact same.


  • #8470
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    snotboogie wrote: »
    What??
    Vaccinations


  • #8471
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,935 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    is_that_so wrote: »
    In about 4 weeks many of those should no longer be at risk.

    ....from the current virus I would suggest/add.

    This morning (listening to radio) reminds me of February/March last year. Seems to be a lot chatter (...fear...) about mutations/variants.


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  • #8472
    HansKroenke
    Closed Accounts Posts: 254 ✭✭HansKroenke


    snotboogie wrote: »
    This has been addressed over and over again. Who is going to look after the vulnerable in this scenario? Are we going to keep care home workers locked down with all of their staff? If they don't want to be locked away for years, do we force them to do the job?

    It is just a reflection of the poor state of the health service that there is no difference in the approach from nearly a year ago. I would question why the approach is still the same as it was a year ago. Where is the accountability for this? If it is such a serious pandemic which justifies locking all of society down, then why is it not acceptable to say that front line workers in care homes need to follow particular guidance at this late stage in the pandemic? Why is the bar not higher for stricter restrictions than it was in March? All questions that would need to be explained properly in order to conclude is hasn't been a shambles since the initial lockdown in March.


  • #8473
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,190 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    Gruffalux wrote: »
    If the stricter travel in EU is between states it will not be acceptable for Ireland to throw up its hand about the North. We will be a red list country.
    Yeah perhaps. That might be the best approach for everyone's sake until the Summer.

    In effect, we won't have a zero covid policy, but one will be thrust upon us.

    If it's exceedingly difficult to get in or out of the rest of the EU, then that leaves very few places anyone can go, so maybe people might get the message to stay at home except for essential travel.
    It will also remove the problem of Dublin being used as a backdoor between the EU and the UK.


  • #8474
    FishOnABike
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,872 ✭✭✭FishOnABike


    YFlyer wrote: »
    There were checkpoints during the Foot and Mouth crisis.

    Animal movement is always restricted. Farm animals don't usually move around the country all by themselves. There are strict regulations controlling animal identification and movement even without additional disease control measurements. To restrict animal movement you just need to restrict the permissions granted.

    The equivalent in human terms would be everyone having to have a permanent form of id (two unique ear tags, tattooed id, mandatory national ID card with very strict penalties for not having it on your person at all time, etc...) and needing written authorisation to be anywhere except on your own property e.g. authorisation each time you want to drop in to family, friend or neighbour, shop, work, leisure, etc... Every movement off your own property needing to be pre-authorised.

    There is no comparison between controlling animal movement in the foot and mouth outbreak and controlling human movement in the current CoViD-19 outbreak.


  • #8475
    Turtwig
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,578 ✭✭✭✭Turtwig


    People are making very optimistic assumptions about vaccinations. Let's assume for simplicity they fully prevent transmission.
    If all of Ireland was inoculated today there'd be little to no covid. However, we have also introduced a selective pressure on the virus for strains that are vaccine resistant. These would, in other words, be the only variants with a chance of onwards transmission in Ireland. So they're the only things that can spread. With the virus still rampant elsewhere we'd still be at some degree of risk of importing these strains and these would spread really fast! Key thing is once we're inoculated we need adequate surveillance in place to identify these variants and suppress them long enough to for our next inoculation.

    Vaccines may only really get us out of this mess when there is sufficient global inoculation and case numbers are down worldwide to something more resembling seasonal flu.

    I'm optimistic about vaccines. I just feel our expectations need to be managed too. We're not out of this, not by a long way. We need to ensure we keep future variants suppressed as much as possible while the world gets inoculated. Currently, Ireland has little to no plan for doing so.


  • #8476
    ZX7R
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,393 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    seamus wrote: »
    Yeah perhaps. That might be the best approach for everyone's sake until the Summer.

    In effect, we won't have a zero covid policy, but one will be thrust upon us.

    If it's exceedingly difficult to get in or out of the rest of the EU, then that leaves very few places anyone can go, so maybe people might get the message to stay at home except for essential travel.
    It will also remove the problem of Dublin being used as a backdoor between the EU and the UK.

    It would be a win win situation for the government in the short term.


  • #8477
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,348 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    MerlinSouthDub wrote: »
    Decent GP referral data today. Good fall from the previous day. Dublin numbers look particularly good.

    https://tomorrowscare.ie/covid/2021-01-22_COVID_GP_Survey_Results.pdf

    This post has gotten lost in the to and fro but it shouldn't have. With lots of very worrying news stories around this is real, tangible, good news. 162 GP practices uploaded data about their working day yesterday. On average each of them sent 2.5 people for testing yesterday. On average, in their professional view, only 1.5 of the people they sent for testing had covid. That is down from 12.5 and 10.5 respectively on 4 January - so in 23 days we had just 1/7th the amount of clinically likely covid cases that we had on 4 January in other words. That can't but be good news.....


  • #8478
    Derek Zoolander
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 434 ✭✭Derek Zoolander


    Turtwig wrote: »
    People are making very optimistic assumptions about vaccinations. Let's assume for simplicity they fully prevent transmission.
    If all of Ireland was inoculated today there'd be little to no covid. However, we have also introduced a selective pressure on the virus for strains that are vaccine resistant. These would, in other words, be the only variants with a chance of onwards transmission in Ireland. So they're the only things that can spread. With the virus still rampant elsewhere we'd still be at some degree of risk of importing these strains and these would spread really fast! Key thing is once we're inoculated we need adequate surveillance in place to identify these variants and suppress them long enough to for our next inoculation.

    Vaccines may only really get us out of this mess when there is sufficient global inoculation and case numbers are down worldwide to something more resembling seasonal flu.

    I'm optimistic about vaccines. I just feel our expectations need to be managed too. We're not out of this, not by a long way. We need to ensure we keep future variants suppressed as much as possible while the world gets inoculated. Currently, Ireland has little to no plan for doing so.

    from a vaccinations perspective the fact that israel are essentially running a 9M people clinical trial 3 months ahead of us is a very good thing - we should be looking at the impact vaccinations are having there.

    We're likely to remain under restrictions till easter at minimum at which point israel will be almost complete with vaccinations - i think best case would be for EU to agree on a travel cessation until April with quanrantine requirements for essential travel - that would essentially get the EU to a baseline of minimal spread.

    Opening up would be done in conjunction with a robust set of vaccination data from israel - its not a permanent zero covid strategy but its 10 weeks of restrictions and the alignment on opening up


  • #8479
    Wolf359f
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,421 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    Rebelbrowser wrote: »
    This post has gotten lost in the to and fro but it shouldn't have. With lots of very worrying news stories around this is real, tangible, good news. 162 GP practices uploaded data about their working day yesterday. On average each of them sent 2.5 people for testing yesterday. On average, in their professional view, only 1.5 of the people they sent for testing had covid. That is down from 12.5 and 10.5 respectively on 4 January - so in 23 days we had just 1/7th the amount of clinically likely covid cases that we had on 4 January in other words. That can't but be good news.....

    And yet people were saying yesterday the GP data suggested it was plateauing.
    Of course they will be back again next week when the GP data from next Monday sees an increase! (Which happens every bloody week because of the weekend)


  • #8480
    Turtwig
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,578 ✭✭✭✭Turtwig


    Wolf359f wrote: »
    And yet people were saying yesterday the GP data suggested it was plateauing.
    Of course they will be back again next week when the GP data from next Monday sees an increase! (Which happens every bloody week because of the weekend)

    That was one poster. Maybe more but it wasn't many more.


  • #8481
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,348 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Wolf359f wrote: »
    And yet people were saying yesterday the GP data suggested it was plateauing.
    Of course they will be back again next week when the GP data from next Monday sees an increase! (Which happens every bloody week because of the weekend)

    Full disclosure, I was in agreement with that post yesterday! Its such a roller coaster this thing but with stats you do need to step back sometimes and just look at the trend, the trend is your friend as they say. ....


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  • #8482
    Stateofyou
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,431 ✭✭✭Stateofyou


    is_that_so wrote: »
    From other households and behaviours of other households. You can't lock down all international travel.

    No, but you can require quarantine in approved hotel accommodation and a negative test first?


  • #8483
    bb1234567
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    HSE have now declared pregnant HCW's to be at high or very high risk of covid complications. I wonder why this has changed so suddenly the consensus since April has been that pregnant women are not at any increased risk from covid than the general population?


  • #8484
    Icantthinkof1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 410 ✭✭Icantthinkof1


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    HSE have now declared pregnant HCW's to be at high or very high risk of covid complications. I wonder why this has changed so suddenly the consensus since April has been that pregnant women are not at any increased risk from covid than the general population?

    Where did you see this? (TIA)


  • #8485
    Deeper Blue
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,420 ✭✭✭Deeper Blue


    Turtwig wrote: »
    If all of Ireland was inoculated today there'd be little to no covid. However, we have also introduced a selective pressure on the virus for strains that are vaccine resistant. These would, in other words, be the only variants with a chance of onwards transmission in Ireland. So they're the only things that can spread. With the virus still rampant elsewhere we'd still be at some degree of risk of importing these strains and these would spread really fast! Key thing is once we're inoculated we need adequate surveillance in place to identify these variants and suppress them long enough to for our next inoculation.

    There's zero evidence that any strains are vaccine resistant.

    Even if some were it's likely that the current vaccines would give at least some protection.

    It's not like we'd have a repeat of covid-19 on our hands.


  • #8486
    bb1234567
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    Icantthinkof1 wrote: »
    Where did you see this? (TIA)

    https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1352609587443228675?s=19


  • #8487
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    ....from the current virus I would suggest/add.

    This morning (listening to radio) reminds me of February/March last year. Seems to be a lot chatter (...fear...) about mutations/variants.
    There is a lot of chatter but not a lot of evidence to date of what it means. Gotta say large sections of the media are completely hooked on pandemic porn. BionTech reckon they could tweak their vaccine in a matter of weeks. That's beauty of mRNA vaccines.


  • #8488
    Qwertyminger
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 96 ✭✭Qwertyminger


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    HSE have now declared pregnant HCW's to be at high or very high risk of covid complications. I wonder why this has changed so suddenly the consensus since April has been that pregnant women are not at any increased risk from covid than the general population?
    Because everything they say is a fucking lie and the only thing that you can do is keep yourself safe by whatever means necessary. The amount of incredibly dangerous flip flops done is negligent at this stage, you just have to assume whatever conservative guesses they give are about a mile off the mark and do everything in your power to get yourself and your family out of the firing line.

    Leo Varadkar has a bloody "healthy initiatives" video out at the moment that says we should get 6-7 hours sleep. He's apparently a former medical professional, he should know that eight hours is optimal, the recommended amount of sleep is 7-9 hours a night. I presume he thinks we'll be more productive if we sacrifice the two to three hours he wants us to. Actually the science suggests we are less productive if we don't get enough sleep.

    He really is the leader for people who get out of bed in the morning, rat out their neighbours for welfare fraud and happily toddle into work pregnant during a pandemic.


  • #8489
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,935 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    is_that_so wrote: »
    BionTech reckon they could tweak their vaccine in a matter of weeks. That's beauty of mRNA vaccines.

    Then you have to give everybody who has already been vaccinated a booster/updated vaccine?

    Bit of a logistical nightmare!


  • #8490
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    Then you have to give everybody who has already been vaccinated a booster/updated vaccine?

    Bit of a logistical nightmare!
    Who knows - Pfizer/Biontech don't seem overly concerned about the new strains and are confident. Logistics would be less of a problem as we'd have the whole network up and running, we'd know the order of vaccination and at 200K-250K shots a week and plenty of vaccines it really wouldn't take as long .


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  • #8491
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,190 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    HSE have now declared pregnant HCW's to be at high or very high risk of covid complications. I wonder why this has changed so suddenly the consensus since April has been that pregnant women are not at any increased risk from covid than the general population?
    I wonder what this new data they've seen is. Probably a small study that found some increased risk.

    Reading between the lines of their statement "Irish data compares very favourably", I would say they've been itching to find some reason to justify telling pregnant HCW to stay home, and now they have some study to back it up.

    Human tragedy notwithstanding, a pregnancy developing complications due to covid acquired at work by a HCW would be a PR and morale disaster for the HSE.


This discussion has been closed.
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