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Covid 19 Part XXXI-187,554 ROI (2,970 deaths) 100,319 NI (1,730 deaths)(24/01)Read OP

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  • #8432
    Eod100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,178 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    is_that_so wrote: »
    Their closure of travel channels idea does exclude us on the grounds of the CTA.

    I think there needs to be some degree of flexibility here in the circumstances. People in England couldn't travel to Scotland or Wales with their travel restrictions and obviously there would be freedom of movement within GB.


  • #8433
    Russman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,978 ✭✭✭Russman


    Stateofyou wrote: »
    Didn't Tony H. just say that we are now seeing a rise in all age groups presenting to hospital? I'm sure someone here has the actual stats of that...?

    https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/surveillance/covid-1914-dayepidemiologyreports/COVID-19_14_day_epidemiology_WEB%20report_20200120.pdf

    This was posted in the Schools thread. If I'm reading page 8 correctly, 42% of hospitalisations in that two week period were under 65.


  • #8434
    UrbanFret
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,056 ✭✭✭UrbanFret


    Posters calling for closing the border obviously know little about what the border actually is. There's 100s of crossings, thousands of people who work the other side of where they live. Farmers with lands on both sides.
    The British couldn't police it when they had 10s of thousands personnel here. Not to mention their Garissons and Chinooks .
    Fantasy as anyone who actually lives close to it knows.


  • #8435
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,190 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    "Rise in all age groups" going to hospital just means that no single age group is growing relatively more than any other. It wasn't a suggestion that the infection was getting more serious for any or all age groups.

    Here's the data from the HPSC report above detailing the risk of going to hospital/ICU by age group.

    Age|Hospitalisation Rate|ICU Rate
    0-4|2.1%|0.18%
    5-12|0.6%|0.00%
    13-18|1.0%|0.00%
    19-24|1.2%|0.00%
    25-34|1.5%|0.06%
    35-44|2.1%|0.08%
    45-54|2.8%|0.34%
    55-64|4.9%|0.61%
    65-74|13.4%|1.14%
    75-84|25.7%|0.94%
    85+|25.1%|0.40%


    You can see there's a relatively high risk over 35, but there's a real inflection point over 65. One in four people over 75 who get covid, will end up in hospital.

    The ICU rate drops for over-75s because they're more likely to be given palliative care than ICU.


  • #8436
    lawred2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,756 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    seamus wrote: »
    "Rise in all age groups" going to hospital just means that no single age group is growing relatively more than any other. It wasn't a suggestion that the infection was getting more serious for any or all age groups.

    Here's the data from the HPSC report above detailing the risk of going to hospital/ICU by age group.

    Age|Hospitalisation Rate|ICU Rate
    0-4|2.1%|0.18%
    5-12|0.6%|0.00%
    13-18|1.0%|0.00%
    19-24|1.2%|0.00%
    25-34|1.5%|0.06%
    35-44|2.1%|0.08%
    45-54|2.8%|0.34%
    55-64|4.9%|0.61%
    65-74|13.4%|1.14%
    75-84|25.7%|0.94%
    85+|25.1%|0.40%


    You can see there's a relatively high risk over 35, but there's a real inflection point over 65. One in four people over 75 who get covid, will end up in hospital.

    The ICU rate drops for over-75s because they're more likely to be given palliative care than ICU.

    Seamus - you're a bastion of clarity amidst an ocean of anecdotes and both unintentionally and intentionally misrepresented data


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  • #8437
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    UrbanFret wrote: »
    Posters calling for closing the border obviously know little about what the border actually is. There's 100s of crossings, thousands of people who work the other side of where they live. Farmers with lands on both sides.
    The British couldn't police it when they had 10s of thousands personnel here. Not to mention their Garissons and Chinooks .
    Fantasy as anyone who actually lives close to it knows.

    This is not unique to Ireland (though poses some additional problems post Brexit). It is the same across Europe. Border regions across Schengen are very blurred. That's why Merkel stated explicitly that she wants to keep the borders open

    The focus I think will be on discouraging travel through testing at both ends (at significant cost) and greater monitoring of self isolation.


  • #8438
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    seamus wrote: »
    We killed the infected and all of their close contacts and then piled up their bodies and burned them.

    I'm not sure the same strategy will work this time.

    ahhhhh.....that gave me a laugh this morning. Thankyou!


  • #8439
    Gruffalux
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,023 ✭✭✭Gruffalux


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    ahhhhh.....that gave me a laugh this morning. Thankyou!

    Because it is the dumbest refutation of almost no covid strategies? Yeah true it is and could be seen as funny I suppose. Zero/ Almost no covid you say = build the pyres for the infected.

    Well. That's okay. But I predict it will be the way forward. It may take time for people to cotton on. It will be led from other countries. And, wonder of wonders, there will be no mass slaughter and burning of humans.


  • #8440
    timsey tiger
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,768 ✭✭✭timsey tiger


    UrbanFret wrote: »
    Posters calling for closing the border obviously know little about what the border actually is. There's 100s of crossings, thousands of people who work the other side of where they live. Farmers with lands on both sides.
    The British couldn't police it when they had 10s of thousands personnel here. Not to mention their Garissons and Chinooks .
    Fantasy as anyone who actually lives close to it knows.

    Do you think that people will be shooting at or blowing up the gardaí for enforcing public health initiatives, because if you don't you're being disingenuous with your talk of chinooks and garrisons?


  • #8441
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    timsey tiger wrote: »
    Do you think that people will be shooting at or blowing up the gardaí for enforcing public health initiatives, because if you don't you're being disingenuous with your talk of chinooks and garrisons?
    That's just historical stuff the poster is talking about. 300 roads is a reality.


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  • #8442
    lawred2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,756 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    timsey tiger wrote: »
    Do you think that people will be shooting at or blowing up the gardaí for enforcing public health initiatives, because if you don't you're being disingenuous with your talk of chinooks and garrisons?

    but yet no calls came from the North to establish an all island approach

    maybe public health initiatives still only go so far on this island where some people are concerned


  • #8443
    iamwhoiam
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,248 ✭✭✭✭iamwhoiam


    seamus wrote: »
    We killed the infected and all of their close contacts and then piled up their bodies and burned them.

    I'm not sure the same strategy will work this time.

    .

    That would be me done for anyway !!


  • #8444
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,190 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    Gruffalux wrote: »
    Because it is the dumbest refutation of almost no covid strategies? Yeah true it is and could be seen as funny I suppose. Zero/ Almost no covid you say = build the pyres for the infected.

    Well. That's okay. But I predict it will be the way forward. It may take time for people to cotton on. It will be led from other countries. And, wonder of wonders, there will be no mass slaughter and burning of humans.
    It's not a refutation of Zero covid, it's a dismissal of the notion that controlling foot and mouth proves that Zero Covid is a reasonable possibility.

    So far, nobody has been able to explain how Zero covid is to be achieved if we cannot quarantine visitors from Great Britain.

    Because you can't. And the DUP will never agree to quarantine people arriving from Britain.

    The other alterative is a two-island quarantine zone between Ireland and Britain. But that would require letting England decide the health measures for all of us. And they have proven themselves the least competent of the four parliaments in doing so. So that's not a runner either.

    It's a pipe dream, and an inordinate amount of time and energy has been wasted rehashing the same arguments over and over.


  • #8445
    Gruffalux
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,023 ✭✭✭Gruffalux


    seamus wrote: »
    It's not a refutation of Zero covid, it's a dismissal of the notion that controlling foot and mouth proves that Zero Covid is a reasonable possibility.

    So far, nobody has been able to explain how Zero covid is to be achieved if we cannot quarantine visitors from Great Britain.

    Because you can't. And the DUP will never agree to quarantine people arriving from Britain.

    The other alterative is a two-island quarantine zone between Ireland and Britain. But that would require letting England decide the health measures for all of us. And they have proven themselves the least competent of the four parliaments in doing so. So that's not a runner either.

    It's a pipe dream, and an inordinate amount of time and energy has been wasted rehashing the same arguments over and over.

    The UK may go with it and solve such issues. Terrible we have to wait on others to do so in order to exercise our rights.

    Meanwhile Wuhan bustles....
    https://amp.france24.com/en/live-news/20210121-wuhan-bustles-a-year-after-world-s-first-coronavirus-lockdown?__twitter_impression=true


  • #8446
    SheepsClothing
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 346 ✭✭SheepsClothing


    seamus wrote: »
    It's not a refutation of Zero covid, it's a dismissal of the notion that controlling foot and mouth proves that Zero Covid is a reasonable possibility.

    So far, nobody has been able to explain how Zero covid is to be achieved if we cannot quarantine visitors from Great Britain.

    Because you can't. And the DUP will never agree to quarantine people arriving from Britain.

    The other alterative is a two-island quarantine zone between Ireland and Britain. But that would require letting England decide the health measures for all of us. And they have proven themselves the least competent of the four parliaments in doing so. So that's not a runner either.

    It's a pipe dream, and an inordinate amount of time and energy has been wasted rehashing the same arguments over and over.

    If all parties agreed to the same loose plan of getting to zero and keeping it there, I don't see why an anglo-irish pact would mean "Letting England decide the health measures". We've tried the alternative for the last 9 months. It's time for something new.


  • #8447
    plodder
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,801 ✭✭✭plodder


    snotboogie wrote: »
    The entire country is shut down, 700k out of work indefinitely. The idea that a solution for a few hundred lorry drivers cant be found to get around this is absurd. The only issue worth mentioning is the border.
    What is the solution then? I agree that the border is an even more intractable problem though.


  • #8448
    UrbanFret
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,056 ✭✭✭UrbanFret


    timsey tiger wrote: »
    Do you think that people will be shooting at or blowing up the gardaí for enforcing public health initiatives, because if you don't you're being disingenuous with your talk of chinooks and garrisons?

    No I don't think that will happen but People will travel over and back regardless of what enforcement's in place(or who's enforcing it). That I can guarantee you.


  • #8449
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    SheepsClothing wrote: »
    If all parties agreed to the same loose plan of getting to zero and keeping it there, I don't see why an anglo-irish pact would mean "Letting England decide the health measures". We've tried the alternative for the last 9 months. It's time for something new.
    NHPET are against it as a strategy as are many in government. The CMO reminded us yesterday that the measures are working, the types of measures we've been using for those 9 months. We also seem to have hit a peak, plateaued and are slowly easing downwards.


  • #8450
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,190 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    Gruffalux wrote: »
    The UK may go with it and solve such issues.
    SheepsClothing wrote: »
    If all parties agreed to the same loose plan of getting to zero and keeping it there, I don't see why an anglo-irish pact would mean "Letting England decide the health measures". We've tried the alternative for the last 9 months. It's time for something new.
    "If" and "May" doing some very heavy lifting there lads.

    England just spent four years fighting with themselves about the contents of a withdrawal agreement and in the end just agreed to do what had originally been proposed when there were several far superior possibilities on the table.

    If you think that we could get them agree to the best advised common set of restrictions in a matter of weeks, and stick to them without allowing political bullsh1t to get in the way, then I applaud your optimism.

    But it's delusional. Any cross-country agreement would get tied up in knots far beyond the end of this pandemic. The only actual way we could get Britain on board with a two-island solution quickly is to give Westminster complete control.

    And that would be disastrous for us.


  • #8451
    CIARAN_BOYLE
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,599 ✭✭✭✭CIARAN_BOYLE


    is_that_so wrote: »
    NHPET are against it as a strategy as are many in government. The CMO reminded us yesterday that the measures are working, the types of measures we've been using for those 9 months. We also seem to have hit a peak, plateaued and are slowly easing downwards.

    NPHET are also in favour of tighter border controls which zero covid people would be in favour of but government would oppose.

    The measures zero covid supporters would be in favour of are not all extreme nutso policies. Some of them would get majority support among the population.


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  • #8452
    Gruffalux
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,023 ✭✭✭Gruffalux


    seamus wrote: »
    "If" and "May" doing some very heavy lifting there lads.

    England just spent four years fighting with themselves about the contents of a withdrawal agreement and in the end just agreed to do what had originally been proposed when there were several far superior possibilities on the table.

    If you think that we could get them agree to the best advised common set of restrictions in a matter of weeks, and stick to them without allowing political bullsh1t to get in the way, then I applaud your optimism.

    But it's delusional. Any cross-country agreement would get tied up in knots far beyond the end of this pandemic. The only actual way we could get Britain on board with a two-island solution quickly is to give Westminster complete control.

    And that would be disastrous for us.

    And how will we solve it if the EU decides for stricter covid control...which I think is quite likely. Perhaps we should start making plans.


  • #8453
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »
    NPHET are also in favour of tighter border controls which zero covid people would be in favour of but government would oppose.

    The measures zero covid supporters would be in favour of are not all extreme nutso policies. Some of them would get majority support among the population.
    NPHET are in favour of anything that controls mobility but only things that might be achievable. More stringent enforcement of the negative PCR requirement is one of those but complete border lockdowns will get far too much political pushback.


  • #8454
    ginoginelli
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,332 ✭✭✭ginoginelli


    Proper quaratining doesnt have to mean zero covid.

    It just gives us a chance to live with covid ( like Korea) instead of constantly locking down with covid.

    Even if some cases trickle over the border its stil a far better alternative than leaving the floodgates open and essentially welcoming the virus with open arms.


  • #8455
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    ginoginelli wrote: »
    Proper quaratining doesnt have to mean zero covid.

    It just gives us a chance to live with covid ( like Korea) instead of constantly locking down with covid.

    Even if some cases trickle over the border its stil a far better alternative than leaving the floodgates open and essentially welcoming the virus with open arms.
    Quarantines assume that the real problem is inward travel, it's not, it's household spread.


  • #8456
    MerlinSouthDub
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,627 ✭✭✭MerlinSouthDub


    Decent GP referral data today. Good fall from the previous day. Dublin numbers look particularly good.

    https://tomorrowscare.ie/covid/2021-01-22_COVID_GP_Survey_Results.pdf


  • #8457
    SheepsClothing
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 346 ✭✭SheepsClothing


    is_that_so wrote: »
    Quarantines assume that the real problem is inward travel, it's not, it's household spread.

    How does it get into the households?

    One way is international travel.


  • #8458
    DraftDodger
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 284 ✭✭DraftDodger


    Gruffalux wrote: »
    The UK may go with it and solve such issues. Terrible we have to wait on others to do so in order to exercise our rights.

    Meanwhile Wuhan bustles....
    https://amp.france24.com/en/live-news/20210121-wuhan-bustles-a-year-after-world-s-first-coronavirus-lockdown?__twitter_impression=true

    We are reactive here to absolutely everything. Zero Covid always was the best go to option. Bars, restaurants and many businesses will never reopen again and a lot of people aren't going to have jobs to return to now but more importantly look at the death and sickness toll on our society with these continuous mickey mouse lockdowns.


  • #8459
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    SheepsClothing wrote: »
    How does it get into the households?

    One way is international travel.
    From other households and behaviours of other households. You can't lock down all international travel.


  • #8460
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,190 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    Gruffalux wrote: »
    And how will we solve it if the EU decides for stricter covid control...which I think is quite likely. Perhaps we should start making plans.
    We'll just have to figure it out. Stricter covid controls in the EU will be between states anyway, the issue of international travel is still down to each member state.

    The discussion at the moment is about finding ways to avoid closing borders, by having relatively common rules in neighbouring areas. It makes no sense, for example, for someone in Germany to be under severe restrictions with nothing open, if they can hop into Austria and go to the pub. Greater coordination of efforts can reduce the need for closing borders.

    Since we share no land borders with another EU country, this is less of an issue for us. There is little or no casual travel to and from the EU, and tracing all inbound passengers is very simple.


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  • #8461
    Plumbthedepths
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭Plumbthedepths


    Zero Covid ain’t happening folks.


This discussion has been closed.
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