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Covid 19 Part XXXI-187,554 ROI (2,970 deaths) 100,319 NI (1,730 deaths)(24/01)Read OP

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Comments

  • #8282
    Hubertj
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    Turtwig wrote: »
    Is mangling of peoples names really necessary?

    I'm skeptical of zero covid implementation in Ireland. However, logistically what covid management plan are Ireland going for? There's no long term strategy. Think it's high time the critics of zero covid actually produce their own alternative framework to get us out of this mess.
    As it stands it's a potential solution I'm warming to more and more as at least they have a proposal.

    I agree but I also think the 0covid boll*x is very light on detail. It’s very academic and no real world operational solutions proposed, just a few paragraphs.


  • #8283
    Tenzor07
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,383 ✭✭✭Tenzor07


    Turtwig wrote: »
    Is mangling of peoples names really necessary?
    I'm skeptical of zero covid implementation in Ireland. However, logistically what covid management plan are Ireland going for? There's no long term strategy. Think it's high time the critics of zero covid actually produce their own alternative framework to get us out of this mess.
    As it stands it's a potential solution I'm warming to more and more as at least they have a proposal.

    Yes.

    Only places I can think of where Zero-Covid has worked is in places such as South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Vietnam... All completely different cultures/society, experienced with other SARS outbreaks...all quite self sufficient and wealthy countries with a strong manufacturing export industry... How would you propose we make it work on this Island?


  • #8284
    ginoginelli
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,332 ✭✭✭ginoginelli


    plodder wrote: »
    "We shouldn't be catastrophising ... but this government has killed people"

    Thank God that fella Mark Paul was there to talk some sense.

    Mark Paul's an embarrassment. Read back through some of his old irish times articles. Hes a die hard anti restrictions head, not too far off the "let it rip" dummies in the other thread on boards.

    Hes literally got everything wrong from the get go.


  • #8285
    Martina1991
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,548 ✭✭✭Martina1991


    patnor1011 wrote: »
    Can anyone in the know tell me how many cycles are used when PCR test is analysed in Ireland? Some old info obtained under freedom of information mentioned 35-45 cycles.
    According to the latest WHO notice
    https://www.who.int/news/item/20-01-2021-who-information-notice-for-ivd-users-2020-05

    In short, a positive PCR test in the absence of symptoms means nothing at a Ct of higher than 30, according to the experts interviewed by the New York Times and according to Jaafar et al. Yet positive tests is the number RTE loves to proudly display every evening at 6 pm.
    That WHO info is nothing new.
    Raind posted the hse guidance on PCR testing earlier
    Deleted User wrote: »
    Not from reputable labs. Clear guidlines around this.

    https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/guidance/outbreakmanagementguidance/PCR%20weak%20results%20guidance.pdf

    The number of cycles used in Ireland varies by what analyser each lab uses.
    E.g. the NVRL could be using a Roche platform that amplifies up to 40 cycles. Galway hospital could use Abbott analysers that go as far as 45 cycles.

    That does not mean all labs have loads of positive results that are detected at that level. The VAST majority of positive results flag as positive before 30 cycles.

    All labs will repeat weak positives above a certain cut off like 30 or 35 cycles. A lot of labs use 2 or 3 different platforms. Some are built for large batches. There are smaller analysers than can run one sample at a time for urgent swabs.

    Weak positives may be run on 2 different analysers or ask for a repeat swab to confirm the result. This is in conjunction and communication with doctors who's assessment and suspension of the patient may help interpret the result.

    It is NOT the case that samples are amplified as much as possible to get a positive result. You do not get positive results out of thin air. You cant detect what's not there.

    The testing policies, procedures and guidelines are adhered to by highly qualified experienced staff to ensure every result is accurate.


  • #8286
    Eod100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,178 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    I think people would accept trying to implement a policy and that policy failing but failing to even try to implement it because they've decided the political hurdles are too great is a failure of political will and leadership. This is a global pandemic, nothing should be off the table. If the government needs to get DUP on side so be it but refusing to try at all will achieve nothing.


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  • #8287
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    ginoginelli wrote: »
    Mark Paul's an embarrassment. Read back through some of his old irish times articles. Hes a die hard anti restrictions head, not too far off the "let it rip" dummies in the other thread on boards.

    Hes literally got everything wrong from the get go.

    He's got some neck to go anywhere near the telly right now.


  • #8288
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,690 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    Eod100 wrote: »
    I think people would accept trying to implement a policy and that policy failing but failing to even try to implement it because they've decided the political hurdles are too great is a failure of political will and leadership. This is a global pandemic, nothing should be off the table. If the government needs to get DUP on side so be it but refusing to try at all will achieve nothing.

    Agree

    Apparently 30,000 people a week travel into this country

    That cannot all be essential travel surely? Mandatory quarantine might cause those figures to plummet for a start


  • #8289
    patnor1011
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,301 ✭✭✭patnor1011


    Deleted User wrote: »
    But if that’s right, and cases are overstated, it means the hospitalisation and death rate is much higher. Which isn’t great.

    Correct. But let us not forget that this time of year there are other problems to deal with which may contribute to higher rates of what you mentioned.
    As one great but fictitious person said "winter is coming" and that means a generally higher strain on health services everywhere. Throw covid in the mix and that is what we see happening now.


  • #8290
    patnor1011
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,301 ✭✭✭patnor1011


    Martina1991 wrote: »
    That WHO info is nothing new.
    Raind posted the hse guidance on PCR testing earlier


    The number of cycles used in Ireland varies by what analyser each lab uses.
    E.g. the NVRL could be using a Roche platform that amplifies up to 40 cycles. Galway hospital could use Abbott analysers that go as far as 45 cycles.

    That does not mean all labs have loads of positive results that are detected at that level. The VAST majority of positive results flag as positive before 30 cycles.

    All labs will repeat weak positives above a certain cut off like 30 or 35 cycles. A lot of labs use 2 or 3 different platforms. Some are built for large batches. There are smaller analysers than can run one sample at a time for urgent swabs.

    Weak positives may be run on 2 different analysers or ask for a repeat swab to confirm the result. This is in conjunction and communication with doctors who's assessment and suspension of the patient may help interpret the result.

    It is NOT the case that samples are amplified as much as possible to get a positive result. You do not get positive results out of thin air. You cant detect what's not there.

    The testing policies, procedures and guidelines are adhered to by highly qualified experienced staff to ensure every result is accurate.

    I asked how many cycles our labs use? 30? 35? more? Just a genuine question seeing like from where I work 20 people out of 100 tested positive and went in quarantine. None of them developed any symptoms or disease. The second time it was 15 I think. Again the same happened. Guess they and the rest of us were lucky but why so many detected cases and none of them were sick.


  • #8291
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    patnor1011 wrote: »
    I asked how many cycles our labs use? 30? 35? more? Just a genuine question seeing like from where I work 20 people out of 100 tested positive and went in quarantine. None of them developed any symptoms or disease. The second time it was 15 I think. Again the same happened. Guess they and the rest of us were lucky but why so many detected cases and none of them were sick.

    It's a miracle.

    Where do you work?


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  • #8292
    Wolf359f
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,421 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    Stheno wrote: »
    Agree

    Apparently 30,000 people a week travel into this country

    That cannot all be essential travel surely? Mandatory quarantine might cause those figures to plummet for a start

    Going by 30,000 a week, we have just over 60,000 hotel rooms in Ireland. Enough for 2 weeks mandatory quarantine. If it's all couples the 60k capacity could be doubled. That's spread out over 800 hotels.
    How it would be enforced? We simply wouldn't have the Garda resources to enforce it. You would need over 3,000 Garda to police it.


  • #8293
    Martina1991
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,548 ✭✭✭Martina1991


    patnor1011 wrote: »
    I asked how many cycles our labs use? 30? 35? more? Just a genuine question seeing like from where I work 20 people out of 100 tested positive and went in quarantine. None of them developed any symptoms or disease. The second time it was 15 I think. Again the same happened. Guess they and the rest of us were lucky but why so many detected cases and none of them were sick.

    It depends on what analsyers each lab use. There isn't one answer to that question. It will vary between 35 to 45.

    Theres any number of reasons for people not becoming sick.
    - low viral load due to wearing masks, minimal contact, virus circulating due to air conditioning
    - people being generally well and not having other conditions
    - the vast and varying symptoms now being reported in positive cases as mild as tiredness, back pain, just feeling "off form". Things people wouldn't even think were related to Covid.
    - the British strain that's now widely circulating may be resulting in milder symptoms.
    - a lot of cases are just asymptomatic, as has been the case since the beginning.


    It is highly unlikely to have a large cluster of false positives in a group of people who had contact with each other. That is a workplace outbreak.


  • #8294
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Turtwig wrote: »
    Is mangling of peoples names really necessary?

    I'm skeptical of zero covid implementation in Ireland. However, logistically what covid management plan are Ireland going for? There's no long term strategy. Think it's high time the critics of zero covid actually produce their own alternative framework to get us out of this mess.
    As it stands it's a potential solution I'm warming to more and more as at least they have a proposal.

    But zero COVID is not a long term strategy either. If they are worried about new strains we’ll have to stay SC until the world is vaccinated in 2023. And even then there’ll likely be new strains. And we get most of our imports via truck, so what do we do about all of those guys in the long term. ZC isn’t just for the short term.....it will take months even to get there. Then we’d have to stay there for many more months for it to have been worthwhile. It sounds really good, and is full of soundbites, but pick it apart and it is not a suitable long term strategy for us at all


  • #8295
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Wolf359f wrote: »
    Going by 30,000 a week, we have just over 60,000 hotel rooms in Ireland. Enough for 2 weeks mandatory quarantine. If it's all couples the 60k capacity could be doubled. That's spread out over 800 hotels.
    How it would be enforced? We simply wouldn't have the Garda resources to enforce it. You would need over 3,000 Garda to police it.

    Private security! Like those huge steroid filled lumps that wander up and down the luas!


  • #8296
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    Wolf359f wrote: »
    Going by 30,000 a week, we have just over 60,000 hotel rooms in Ireland. Enough for 2 weeks mandatory quarantine. If it's all couples the 60k capacity could be doubled. That's spread out over 800 hotels.
    How it would be enforced? We simply wouldn't have the Garda resources to enforce it. You would need over 3,000 Garda to police it.

    Would you travel to another country for a fairly frivolous reason if you had to quarantine in a hotel for two weeks at your own expense?


  • #8297
    plodder
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,801 ✭✭✭plodder


    ginoginelli wrote: »
    Mark Paul's an embarrassment. Read back through some of his old irish times articles. Hes a die hard anti restrictions head, not too far off the "let it rip" dummies in the other thread on boards.

    Hes literally got everything wrong from the get go.
    He wasn't anti restrictions tonight.


  • #8298
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Stheno wrote: »
    Agree

    Apparently 30,000 people a week travel into this country

    That cannot all be essential travel surely? Mandatory quarantine might cause those figures to plummet for a start

    You have about 1500 truckers a day for starters. Some of which will be heading home to family after their job. Some of which will just want to get the hell out of here. Any sign of slowing up their work, and the freight forwarding companies will just say that it’s not worth their time. Some companies are already reluctant to use the land bridge due to Brexit. Cue empty veg sections in the supermarket


  • #8299
    Wolf359f
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,421 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    Private security! Like those huge steroid filled lumps that wander up and down the luas!

    The ones who most of the time do sweet feic all?
    Can they or do they even enforce mask wearing on the luas?
    What can private security really do? Ring the guards? Sure ya could pop out for a pint and back to the hotel by the time they arrive.


  • #8300
    patnor1011
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,301 ✭✭✭patnor1011


    TonyMaloney wrote: »
    It's a miracle.

    Where do you work?

    It is a place where about 100 people live. Half of them are working even now so out and about their daily routine. It was not a question of if we get a cluster here but when. It happened twice already and no doubt will happen again. First batch was really scared but the second one went in quarantine happy as they get to spend it in a hotel in Dublin. The third round of testing failed to find one positive person even though some expressed hope to have it so they get to go to the same nice place others told them about. No joy as none was a positive third round of testing. Perhaps due to low attendance quite a few refused to be tested but it seems they were not positive anyway as if they had it they would probably infect some other people - that make me believe that there was no positive case in round 3. We will get another round of testing soon. I do not see much compliance forthcoming in the next round of testing.


  • #8301
    FintanMcluskey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,624 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    Deleted User wrote: »
    You have about 1500 truckers a day for starters. Some of which will be heading home to family after their job. Some of which will just want to get the hell out of here. Any sign of slowing up their work, and the freight forwarding companies will just say that it’s not worth their time. Some companies are already reluctant to use the land bridge due to Brexit. Cue empty veg sections in the supermarket

    Ireland also has about 1200 FDI companies.

    Many of which take external engineering expertise to run/commission and maintain utility equipment etc


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  • #8302
    Arghus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,193 ✭✭✭✭Arghus


    ginoginelli wrote: »
    Mark Paul's an embarrassment. Read back through some of his old irish times articles. Hes a die hard anti restrictions head, not too far off the "let it rip" dummies in the other thread on boards.

    Hes literally got everything wrong from the get go.

    +1

    Mark Paul is an absolute spoofer. He's been calling it absolutely wrong now for months on end.


  • #8303
    patnor1011
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,301 ✭✭✭patnor1011


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Private security! Like those huge steroid filled lumps that wander up and down the luas!

    I happen to wait for bus at red cow couple times it seems they change shifts there or something. Their main concern or better said first thing they did when they disembark luas was to go through ticket machines return change slots.
    Every single time.


  • #8304
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    patnor1011 wrote: »
    I happen to wait for bus at red cow couple times it seems they change shifts there or something. Their main concern or better said first thing they did when they disembark luas was to go through ticket machines return change slots.
    Every single time.

    Haha. That doesn’t surprise me one bit!


  • #8305
    bb1234567
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    Unfortunately looks like Tokyo Olympics will not be happening this year either, and focus is now to have them instead in the next available slot in 2032. I'm gutted tbh but it's not exactly surprising.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/japan-looks-for-a-way-out-of-tokyo-olympics-because-of-virus-lf868xfnd


  • #8306
    FintanMcluskey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,624 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    Unfortunately looks like Tokyo Olympics will not be happening this year either, and focus is now to have them instead in the next available slot in 2032. I'm gutted tbh but it's not exactly surprising.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/japan-looks-for-a-way-out-of-tokyo-olympics-because-of-virus-lf868xfnd

    12 years?

    Surely most of the current athletes will have retired


  • #8307
    Dr. Bre
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,843 ✭✭✭Dr. Bre


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    Unfortunately looks like Tokyo Olympics will not be happening this year either, and focus is now to have them instead in the next available slot in 2032. I'm gutted tbh but it's not exactly surprising.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/japan-looks-for-a-way-out-of-tokyo-olympics-because-of-virus-lf868xfnd

    2032 is a long way off !


  • #8308
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    Unfortunately looks like Tokyo Olympics will not be happening this year either, and focus is now to have them instead in the next available slot in 2032. I'm gutted tbh but it's not exactly surprising.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/japan-looks-for-a-way-out-of-tokyo-olympics-because-of-virus-lf868xfnd

    Feel desperately sorry for those that were peaking right now. Sanita Puspure was as sure a bet for a gold medal as we’ve seen since Katie Taylor. Cannot imagine how disappointing that must be


  • #8309
    bb1234567
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    FintanMcluskey wrote: »
    12 years?

    Surely most of the current athletes will have retired

    God yeh didn't even think about that. Must be devastating for those in the short window of their prime having trained their whole life for it. Should nearly have it behind closed doors jusr for the sake of the athlete's careers


  • #8310
    maebee
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,755 ✭✭✭maebee


    Tokyo 2020 happening in Summer 2021 has been unlikely for months. Bit of a hop, skip and jump and we can all look forward to Tokyo 2020 happening in 2022.


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  • #8311
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    Deleted User wrote: »
    But zero COVID is not a long term strategy either. If they are worried about new strains we’ll have to stay SC until the world is vaccinated in 2023. And even then there’ll likely be new strains. And we get most of our imports via truck, so what do we do about all of those guys in the long term. ZC isn’t just for the short term.....it will take months even to get there. Then we’d have to stay there for many more months for it to have been worthwhile. It sounds really good, and is full of soundbites, but pick it apart and it is not a suitable long term strategy for us at all

    Zero covid is unquestionably a difficult policy to implement. There are enormous barriers to its success.
    But it's also far from impossible.

    I don't think we can do it alone. I'm not even sure how well it works if we can get an all island approach. I mean it would work, we're an island, but it has considerable downsides.
    I think we're waiting on one of the larger EU countries to push it, if not the EU itself.

    And on the off chance that happens, we'll all be in a much better place.


This discussion has been closed.
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