Covid 19 Part XXXI-187,554 ROI (2,970 deaths) 100,319 NI (1,730 deaths)(24/01)Read OP

is_that_so · 20-01-2021 07:51PM

Stheno wrote: »

It's less than 50 in ICU I think

Cases below 1000 would be too high imo

That will bring schools back. If we wait for very low numbers it could be well into March, which is way too long and you won't be able to hold people to it.

Ficheall · 20-01-2021 07:53PM

manofwisdom wrote: »

Seven day average is 2890 cases per day. This day last week it was 5440.

This day last week were we not still clearing the backlog? And we're still not testing asymptomatic contacts. Wouldn't go getting too excited just yet.

Jim_Hodge · 20-01-2021 07:54PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Cases below 1,000 and falling plus far lower hospitalisations and ICU numbers, under 50 in ICU for sure.

ICU up to 210, an increase of 8 over yesterday. Hardly 'far fewer'.

y2k2020 · 20-01-2021 07:54PM

Gael23 wrote: »

What do we need to get out of level 5?

Who's knows, they'll shift those goal posts with something else anyway

is_that_so · 20-01-2021 07:55PM

A painfully slow area of research on the severity of COVID in patients might finally be coming to some concrete conclusions.

A growing number of studies suggest that some of these questions might be explained by the immune system mistakenly turning against the body — a phenomenon known as autoimmunity.

“This is a rapidly evolving area, but all the evidence is converging,” says Aaron Ring, an immunologist at the Yale School of Medicine in New Haven, Connecticut.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00149-1?

CIARAN_BOYLE · 20-01-2021 07:55PM

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

ICU up to 210, an increase of 8 over yesterday. Hardly 'far fewer'.

I think he is giving his guess at criteria to exit level 5.

He is not commenting on the current state.

is_that_so · 20-01-2021 07:56PM

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

ICU up to 210, an increase of 8 over yesterday. Hardly 'far fewer'.

You might want to follow my post back to what I replied to and it wasn't this!

Ohmeha · 20-01-2021 07:56PM

Stheno wrote: »

It's less than 50 in ICU I think

Cases below 1000 would be too high imo

We've just recently gone on 7 day rolling averages from 275 daily reported cases to 6,050 daily reported cases (+ truckload missed) in just 6 weeks. New cases have to go sub 100

Jim_Hodge · 20-01-2021 08:00PM

is_that_so wrote: »

You might want to follow my post back to what I replied to and it wasn't this!

Apologies, I didn't get the context.

gipi · 20-01-2021 08:05PM

spookwoman wrote: »

Briefing vs confirmed numbers

That chart says that 58 of the deaths occurred in December - typo?

is_that_so · 20-01-2021 08:08PM

Ohmeha wrote: »

We've just recently gone on 7 day rolling averages from 275 daily reported cases to 6,050 daily reported cases (+ truckload missed) in just 6 weeks. New cases have to go sub 100

When do you see that happening?

MerlinSouthDub · 20-01-2021 08:10PM

Ficheall wrote: »

This day last week were we not still clearing the backlog? And we're still not testing asymptomatic contacts. Wouldn't go getting too excited just yet.

With 10 -15% close contact positivity rate, and less than 3 contacts per case, not testing asymptomatic contacts is not going to make a big difference to case numbers. A couple of hundred cases a day. Anyway, it will become irrelevant in the next few days when close contact testing will resume.

Jim_Hodge · 20-01-2021 08:11PM

gipi wrote: »

That chart says that 58 of the deaths occurred in December - typo?

Yes, the briefing said January.

spookwoman · 20-01-2021 08:11PM

gipi wrote: »

That chart says that 58 of the deaths occurred in December - typo?

Yep typo that sheet is still WIP but the main numbers are correct. Sorted now

SuperRabbit · 20-01-2021 08:12PM

After the summer.. autumn i guess you call it... they seemed to be level 2 with incidence rate of 99 and 3 with incidence of 100.. and then as more and more counties hit 100 they scrapped that and decided they could stay on 2, and then suddenly we were all on 5... but now with this new strain being more infectious it seems like if they were going to be as cautious as they were in autumn then you'd go level 4 with incidence at 100 and level 3 with it below and not open restaurants again till summer regardless

but there don't seem to be any patterns, it doesn't seem to go by numbers it seems to go by the government measuring how afraid they are vs how fed up they are. we have never been to level 4 because they won't take unpopular precautions until "oh ****" and when "oh ****" happens it's straight to 5

CIARAN_BOYLE · 20-01-2021 08:18PM

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

With 10 -15% close contact positivity rate, and less than 3 contacts per case, not testing asymptomatic contacts is not going to make a big difference to case numbers. A couple of hundred cases a day. Anyway, it will become irrelevant in the next few days when close contact testing will resume.

2000 cases a day 2.5 contacts a case 5000 contacts 12% positivity half of close contact cases are asymptomatic

So 300 extra cases. Not actually as big an effect as I though it would be.

Gruffalux · 20-01-2021 08:21PM

Don't shoot me

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-safrica-variant/new-covid-19-variant-defeats-plasma-treatment-may-reduce-vaccine-efficacy-idUSKBN29P2HJ

Against plasma antibodies, yes. But nonetheless has ''implications''.

SuperRabbit · 20-01-2021 08:22PM

Gruffalux wrote: »

Don't shoot me

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-safrica-variant/new-covid-19-variant-defeats-plasma-treatment-may-reduce-vaccine-efficacy-idUSKBN29P2HJ

Against plasma antibodies, yes. But nonetheless has ''implications''.

I saw this in a horrible dream

SuperRabbit · 20-01-2021 08:23PM

some of the other vaccines that are in development don't focus on the spike protein, right?

niallo27 · 20-01-2021 08:23PM

manofwisdom wrote: »

Seven day average is 2890 cases per day. This day last week it was 5440.

You could say the case are dropping exponentially.

niallo27 · 20-01-2021 08:25PM

Gruffalux wrote: »

Don't shoot me

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-safrica-variant/new-covid-19-variant-defeats-plasma-treatment-may-reduce-vaccine-efficacy-idUSKBN29P2HJ

Against plasma antibodies, yes. But nonetheless has ''implications''.

I'm just waiting for the Irish variant which will wipe us all out.

Stheno · 20-01-2021 08:25PM

SuperRabbit wrote: »

some of the other vaccines that are in development don't focus on the spike protein, right?

Think they all do

spookwoman · 20-01-2021 08:27PM

Gruffalux wrote: »

Don't shoot me

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-safrica-variant/new-covid-19-variant-defeats-plasma-treatment-may-reduce-vaccine-efficacy-idUSKBN29P2HJ

Against plasma antibodies, yes. But nonetheless has ''implications''.

ah f*cknuts! One to keep an eye on.

Happydays2020 · 20-01-2021 08:30PM

This should be positive in terms of numbers for tomorrow.

https://twitter.com/gpbuddy/status/1351974431413972994?s=21

Gruffalux · 20-01-2021 08:33PM

spookwoman wrote: »

ah f*cknuts! One to keep an eye on.

Yeah, just that, keep an eye. It is not concerning yet til they look at vaccine effect on it. I just think it is useful to be aware that there may be issues. Rampant Covid will always allow for extra mutations - another reason to stamp it out.

spookwoman · 20-01-2021 08:41PM

Gruffalux wrote: »

Yeah, just that, keep an eye. It is not concerning yet til they look at vaccine effect on it. I just think it is useful to be aware that there may be issues. Rampant Covid will always allow for extra mutations - another reason to stamp it out.

The joys of viral mutations.

SuperRabbit · 20-01-2021 08:42PM

"results showed the need for new vaccines to be designed to tackle the evolving threat, it said."

sounds like they aren't 100% sure yet but that there is enough evidence to warrant starting new vaccines

Derek Zoolander · 20-01-2021 08:53PM

Gruffalux wrote: »

Don't shoot me

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-safrica-variant/new-covid-19-variant-defeats-plasma-treatment-may-reduce-vaccine-efficacy-idUSKBN29P2HJ

Against plasma antibodies, yes. But nonetheless has ''implications''.

Convalescent Plasma has continuously failed clinical trials in terms of outcomes so not sure why it would be effective against a new variant

Gael23 · 20-01-2021 08:57PM

Hospitality likely closed until June

Happydays2020 · 20-01-2021 09:03PM

Gael23 wrote: »

Hospitality likely closed until June

Pubs open in June?

Covid 19 Part XXXI-187,554 ROI (2,970 deaths) 100,319 NI (1,730 deaths)(24/01)Read OP

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