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Covid 19 Part XXXI-187,554 ROI (2,970 deaths) 100,319 NI (1,730 deaths)(24/01)Read OP

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  • #5012
    CIARAN_BOYLE
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,599 ✭✭✭✭CIARAN_BOYLE


    176 in icu yesterday
    14 admissions
    12 discharges
    169 in icu today

    Presumably 9 deaths in icu. RIP.

    Our first fall in icu numbers for quiet a while.

    Interestingly I forgot to model deaths in my personal amateur modelling.


  • #5013
    polesheep
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,950 ✭✭✭polesheep


    CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »
    176 in icu yesterday
    14 admissions
    12 discharges
    169 in icu today

    Presumably 9 deaths in icu. RIP.

    Our first fall in icu numbers for quiet a while.

    Interestingly I forgot to model deaths in my personal amateur modelling.

    I love the way you phrase that:D


  • #5014
    MerlinSouthDub
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,627 ✭✭✭MerlinSouthDub


    Latest GP referral data is out.

    Flat on yesterday - which is fine, yesterday's numbers were good. I was a bit worried from some of the anecdotal GP reports on twitter that we might see a spike up. Reminder = don't read twitter!

    https://tomorrowscare.ie/covid/2021-01-14_COVID_GP_Survey_Results.pdf


  • #5015
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    Danzy wrote: »
    True but there still remains no comparison in adherence.

    Kissing on the cheeks, hand shakes, social get togethers are the norm for the last 12 months, mask wearing was late coming for most. In many key areas there was no changes in much of Europe in the last year.

    It was not perfect or complete adherence here but most tried, most of the time.

    That's a stand out feature.

    People go on about Sweden but the Dutch pursued the same strategy.

    Is there any substance to your patriotism? Have you any links or sources that suggests we were exceptional?

    I've got data that says the primary difference between us and other countries was that at one time we applied proactive restrictions when others did not. We've since stopped doing that and had ourselves a wee disaster.


  • #5016
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    harr wrote: »
    I will put my hands up and admit we had a large gathering at Christmas. Family only on Christmas Day.
    None of us went out prior to Christmas and most shopping was done on line and we all made a conscious decision to limit our social interactions coming up to Christmas. 6 adults and 5 kids ..... we did take certain precautions on Christmas Day itself but had a good day and a day we could forget about covid for a few hours.
    We spoke to my elderly parents about giving it a miss this year and they were adamant that wanted a proper Christmas Day .. and as they are in there 80,s freely admitted it could be the last Christmas together and didn’t want to spend it alone.
    I am glad we did now and that it all worked out ok , but I think an awful lot of families had the same mind set over the Christmas.. after what had a been a horrible year.

    Absolutely nothing wrong with that. We all self isolated in the run up to Christmas so that the risk was mitigated. We had my nana over who is over 80. I opened the front window and the back door. To say it was drafty was an understatement. Gave the nana a hot water bottle and she was grand. We kept distance too which helped.

    It's a horrible yoke of thing and wouldn't wish on anyone. The gov could have outlined the airborne risk a bit more. It builds up with more people, less space and no ventilation. They didn't speak of measles being airborne until the late 80s. It's a massive own goal to minimise the main transmission route for the sake of keeping hospitality happy.

    edit: some younger family weren't so careful and created quite the scare when they were contact traced for some households but they've understood the knock on effects.


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  • #5017
    Eod100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,175 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    Can't tell if this is a joke or not with the way UK is at the minute but apparently one of their new public health ads they've considered is: ''grabbing a coffee can kill''. If it's that unsafe you think you'd close them..!

    Think it's a case of government allowing certain activities and then chastising people when shockingly they engage in them. Seems fairly daft.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/pmqs-starmer-pressures-johnson-over-tighter-restrictions


  • #5018
    c68zapdsm5i1ru
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,709 ✭✭✭c68zapdsm5i1ru


    polesheep wrote: »
    Why is it presumed that those now in hospital had no part to play? Many of those elderly parents wanted their children to come home for Christmas. Many more of them went to restaurants and pubs.

    Yes of course. I'm just giving one example of why it's not really down to blaming named individuals. Anyone who deliberately engages in very risky behaviour is culpable. The fact that they got away with it doesn't make them any better than those who didn't because they/their relatives were asymptomatic. That was my point. I think parents who encouraged kids to come home and collected them from Belfast behaved wrongly.


  • #5019
    growleaves
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,001 ✭✭✭growleaves


    mandrake04 wrote: »
    Vaccines are not going be the silver bullet, it’s just a rudimentary tool to help learn to live with this you still need commonsense and restrictions like SD and testing quarantine etc for some time. You won’t see pre-covid normality for years.

    Last April, Simon Harris said that social distancing would end when a vaccine or effective treatment was found.

    In truth, social distancing was always 100% voluntary.

    If you are still worried about Long Covid after vaccination you can socially distance for the rest of your life but don't be surprised if others do not.


  • #5020
    What Username Guidelines
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,139 ✭✭✭What Username Guidelines


    Eod100 wrote: »
    Can't tell if this is a joke or not with the way UK is at the minute but apparently one of their new public health ads they've considered is: ''grabbing a coffee can kill''. If it's that unsafe you think you'd close them..!

    Think it's a case of government allowing certain activities and then chastising people when shockingly they engage in them. Seems fairly daft.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/pmqs-starmer-pressures-johnson-over-tighter-restrictions

    I wouldn't put too much stock in what the Spectator says tbh, especially in the form of "I understand... draft... being considered... along the lines of..."

    Alistair Haimes, the UK-Variant of Ivor Cummins, writes for them the odd time and it seems their stance is on lockdown skepticism.


  • #5021
    GreeBo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,505 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    Wombatman wrote: »
    Whatever level restrictions you have in place, I expect adherence is going to look something like this.

    standard-normal-distribution-with-probabilities.png

    Adhering to the recommended restrictions exactly puts you right in the middle. Those to the left are ignoring restrictions to some or other degree. Those to the right are going over and above, maybe because of an elderly family member or an underlying condition.

    I think the distribution changes as the lockdown level changes though.
    At level 3 there are lots more opportunities to be "over and above" the recommendations, once you get to level 5 there isnt really that much more you can do to get yourself onto the right side of the graph.

    /arguing with myself
    as lockdown level increases there are also more opportunities to fall below the recommendations, so maybe it does just stay as a normal distribution...


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  • #5022
    bb1234567
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    Might have been posted already but looks like icu dropped by 6 patients this morning ! 169 in ICU was 175 yesterday iirc?


  • #5023
    Benimar
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,790 ✭✭✭Benimar


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    Might have been posted already but looks like icu dropped by 6 patients this morning ! 169 in ICU was 175 yesterday iirc?

    There were more admissions than discharges, so the reductions down to people dying unfortunately.


  • #5024
    What Username Guidelines
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,139 ✭✭✭What Username Guidelines


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    Might have been posted already but looks like icu dropped by 6 patients this morning ! 169 in ICU was 175 yesterday iirc?

    Thought the same when I saw the numbers but as pointed out, likely a number of deaths.
    CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »
    176 in icu yesterday
    14 admissions
    12 discharges
    169 in icu today

    Presumably 9 deaths in icu. RIP.

    Our first fall in icu numbers for quiet a while.

    Interestingly I forgot to model deaths in my personal amateur modelling.


  • #5025
    cannotlogin
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,172 ✭✭✭cannotlogin


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    Might have been posted already but looks like icu dropped by 6 patients this morning ! 169 in ICU was 175 yesterday iirc?

    I have mixed feelings when I see ICU members dropping. Would hope they are recoveries but more than likely the are deaths unfortunately.


  • #5026
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,190 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    Discharge from ICU, afaik, means they've been transferred back to a normal ward. So on the face of it if the numbers have dropped but can't be accounted for in discharges, then they must be deaths.

    One thing I'm not sure of - if someone in ICU has two negative PCR tests, but has to remain in ICU, are they listed as a discharge, or do they just fall off the numbers? Or do they remain as a "Covid patient" in the ICU numbers until they're discharged?


  • #5027
    Lollipop95
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,279 ✭✭✭Lollipop95


    Anyone know how accurate this is?

    https://www.omnicalculator.com/health/ireland-vaccine-queue


  • #5028
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Lollipop95 wrote: »
    Anyone know how accurate this is?

    https://www.omnicalculator.com/health/ireland-vaccine-queue
    It uses 42K a week as a total, so judge for yourself. Posters have been fairly negative about it. Like many of these tools they make very simplistic assumptions. At a guess Group 12 and beyond will start in summer. The 18-34s are the only unknowns and they could move up the queue.


  • #5029
    Sconsey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,611 ✭✭✭Sconsey


    Lollipop95 wrote: »
    Anyone know how accurate this is?

    https://www.omnicalculator.com/health/ireland-vaccine-queue

    Seems fairly accurate to a point, the big variable is the number of doses adminstered per month. It is a key variable that we dont know the value of right now.


  • #5030
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    Sconsey wrote: »
    Seems fairly accurate to a point, the big variable is the number of doses adminstered per month. It is a key variable that we dont know the value of right now.

    Yeah, and it's likely to be a moving variable so that calculator can never keep up.


  • #5031
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,190 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    It's perfectly accurate, it just does a few calculations.

    The main issue is that the calculations are linear and don't account for the increase in supply over time.

    The government claims they'll have 4m vaccinations done by end September. An average of 102k vaccinations/week.

    Put that in, instead of the 42k the calculator has by default, and you'll get a better estimate. Though if you're any of the earlier groups, it might be too optimistic.


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  • #5032
    schmoo2k
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,389 ✭✭✭schmoo2k


    As of Jan 13, 2021, IRELAND remains in a Spreading state. The infection is very quickly increasing (R = 2.04). At this growth rate, new infections and deaths will double every 10 days. This outbreak is beyond containment, with 51,333 active cases, and requires mitigation. This is the 8th surge in infections, which started on the week of Dec 10, 2020. With 38,288 new cases and 109 new deaths, this is the worst week yet for cases and deaths during this surge. The Contagion Risk is extremely high at 99.5%. This is the likelihood of meeting an infected person during one hundred random encounters. It appears that the level of social distancing has increased dramatically, resulting in lower levels of infection growth. IRELAND is currently on the HotSpot list due to rapid increase in cases. The Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is estimated as 2.3%. This is consistent with the average CFR of 2.3%. Preliminary estimates suggest that 11% of the population may have been infected and are presumed immune. This may be enough to slightly suppress the spread of the virus. This preliminary estimation also implies an Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) of roughly 0.5%. The Short-Term Indicator suggests that the infection is likely to worsen over the course of the next few days.

    https://covid19.hpccsystems.com/


  • #5033
    Miike
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,021 ✭✭✭Miike


    seamus wrote: »
    Discharge from ICU, afaik, means they've been transferred back to a normal ward. So on the face of it if the numbers have dropped but can't be accounted for in discharges, then they must be deaths.

    One thing I'm not sure of - if someone in ICU has two negative PCR tests, but has to remain in ICU, are they listed as a discharge, or do they just fall off the numbers? Or do they remain as a "Covid patient" in the ICU numbers until they're discharged?

    I don't know where it is now, but I remember the discharge criteria (for the counting of numbers related to COVID19) in April/May was if you were admitted to ICU as a COVID patient but must remain there with complications related to COVID (eg. Bacterial pneumonia secondary to COVID19) they remain listed a COVID ICU patient.


  • #5034
    vafankillar
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 591 ✭✭✭vafankillar


    Dublin bus timetable being reduced to Saturday timetable from next monday.

    ****ing sick of this ****e. Bad enough being forced to work as an essential worker but now will be stuck waiting around for travel


  • #5035
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,348 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    H8GHOTI wrote: »
    Re Tonys graph of retail & recreation.
    Very easy to be compliant when you have no choice. If pubs are open we go, if retail is open we go. If everything is closed we can’t go.
    I wouldn’t be patting ourselves on the back.

    That dawned on me since...


  • #5036
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    Miike wrote: »
    I don't know where it is now, but I remember the discharge criteria (for the counting of numbers related to COVID19) in April/May was if you were admitted to ICU as a COVID patient but must remain there with complications related to COVID (eg. Bacterial pneumonia secondary to COVID19) they remain listed a COVID ICU patient.

    I clicked the underlined bit, Miike.

    That's bad form


  • #5037
    Miike
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,021 ✭✭✭Miike


    TonyMaloney wrote: »
    I clicked the underlined bit, Miike.

    That's bad form

    I normally try to cite, so my apologies but I cannot find that document on the HPSC website! I'm also on mobile so... :( Never the less, sorry Tony :pac::pac::pac:


  • #5038
    SuperRabbit
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 698 ✭✭✭SuperRabbit


    betrayed by design again :(


  • #5039
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    schmoo2k wrote: »
    https://covid19.hpccsystems.com/

    Based on the 7 day number has already peaked and the 14 day rate is likely to start falling within the next few days, so would question that data on the current R0


  • #5040
    thelad95
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,812 ✭✭✭thelad95


    vafankillar wrote: »
    Dublin bus timetable being reduced to Saturday timetable from next monday.

    ****ing sick of this ****e. Bad enough being forced to work as an essential worker but now will be stuck waiting around for travel

    Other countries with a bit of cop on actually INCREASED services on public transport to allow for social distancing. Imagine having a bit of forward thinking involved in policy making.


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  • #5041
    lawred2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,753 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    vafankillar wrote: »
    Dublin bus timetable being reduced to Saturday timetable from next monday.

    ****ing sick of this ****e. Bad enough being forced to work as an essential worker but now will be stuck waiting around for travel

    jokeshop

    everything public transport wise in this country is arseways


This discussion has been closed.
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