Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

Covid 19 Part XXXI-187,554 ROI (2,970 deaths) 100,319 NI (1,730 deaths)(24/01)Read OP

1…150151153155156…333

Comments

  • #4562
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 8,647 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I'm not particularly worried about the hospitals collapsing. We are on top of it. The people I feel sorry for are the ones who had their outpatient appointments/ elective surgery cancelled due to the selfishness of people who couldn't follow simple rules such as wear a ****ing mask


  • #4563
    kilkenny31
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 701 ✭✭✭kilkenny31


    zinfandel wrote: »
    but the damage has been done, deaths will skyrocket over the next 6 weeks, same as has happened in every country , especially as hospitals are over whelmed . many countries who hit cases similar to ours before christmas, have daily death rates of over 100 weeks later..

    That may happen. But our spike will be very short lived. It wont be nice. But the point is it's not like back at the start if the pandemic where we didn't know what would happen. We know now things will improve over the next few weeks.


  • #4564
    Jim_Hodge
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,140 ✭✭✭✭Jim_Hodge


    kilkenny31 wrote: »
    Hospital cases will peak by the weekend. By end of January things will be looking good again.

    You really haven't a clue. Hospital cases will not have peaked by this weekend and when they do that does not mean all is well. Instead of using your crystal ball perhaps listen to people working in hospitals. We are many weeks away from peak deaths and an easing of pressure on the health service.
    As for looking Good again. The end of January? Really?


  • #4565
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,931 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Jim_Hodge wrote: »
    You really haven't a clue. Hospital cases will not have peaked by this weekend and when they do that does not mean all is well. Instead of using your crystal ball perhaps listen to people working in hospitals. We are many weeks away from peak deaths and an easing of pressure on the health service.
    As for looking Good again. The end of January? Really?

    Indeed....

    Was watching BBC News last night and consultant interviewed said most of the people being hospitalised now/going into ICU now in the UK were infected before Christmas.

    There is a considerable lag.


  • #4566
    zuutroy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,854 ✭✭✭zuutroy


    Jim_Hodge wrote: »
    You really haven't a clue. Hospital cases will not have peaked by this weekend and when they do that does not mean all is well. Instead of using your crystal ball perhaps listen to people working in hospitals. We are many weeks away from peak deaths and an easing of pressure on the health service.
    As for looking Good again. The end of January? Really?

    Or instead of listening to random samples from people working in hospitals, look at the data which agrees with what the poster is saying. No crystal ball needed.


  • Advertisement
  • #4567
    lawred2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,755 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    Indeed....

    Was watching BBC News last night and consultant interviewed said most of the people being hospitalised now/going into ICU now in the UK were infected before Christmas.

    There is a considerable lag.

    how would that be known without a working track and trace?

    that doesn't really tally with anything that's known


  • #4568
    SpacialNeeds
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 203 ✭✭SpacialNeeds


    https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0113/1189371-coronavirus-ireland/
    Ilona Duffy is talking about this on radio 1.

    They're down 7000 staff countrywide and have to ask asymptomatic close contacts in the HSE to come in for a test and get back to work.

    My uncle had an accident in his driveway on the ice last week and had to go to the Bons because he split himself open. Now he also has covid.

    Please be extraordinarily careful.


  • #4569
    Eod100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,176 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    lawred2 wrote: »
    how would that be known without a working track and trace?

    that doesn't really tally with anything that's known

    I guess it could be based on when they tested positive and minus average infection time of 5 days say.


  • #4570
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,931 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    lawred2 wrote: »
    how would that be known without a working track and trace?

    that doesn't really tally with anything that's known

    Just reporting what was reported....

    I suppose, if you are at the coal face, when somebody is admitted to hospital, it can be established when they had first symptoms and/or positive test.


  • #4571
    cameramonkey
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,220 ✭✭✭cameramonkey


    Gael23 wrote: »
    They need something like no rates for 6 months after they reopen


    rates are a tiny % of most healthy companies turnover and rates have been set aside in many council areas.


  • Advertisement
  • #4572
    kilkenny31
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 701 ✭✭✭kilkenny31


    Jim_Hodge wrote: »
    You really haven't a clue. Hospital cases will not have peaked by this weekend and when they do that does not mean all is well. Instead of using your crystal ball perhaps listen to people working in hospitals. We are many weeks away from peak deaths and an easing of pressure on the health service.
    As for looking Good again. The end of January? Really?

    If you look at hospital figures the growth rate has really slowed. Come the weekend/early next week this will have levelled off with people from the surge being discharged. ICU will lag someway behind. What we are seeing now is a result of christmas. Christmas is almost 3 weeks behind us now. New infections peaked over a week ago if you look at the daily swab figures.


  • #4573
    Lollipop95
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,279 ✭✭✭Lollipop95


    Seems like they’re really tightening things up in England. Matt Hancock said that it’s impossible to know when the restrictions will end over there


  • #4574
    CrabRevolution
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,959 ✭✭✭CrabRevolution


    kilkenny31 wrote: »
    RTE sugarcoat it. What news reports have you been watching. They have been the exact opposite. Every news news report used the words grim and rampant. George Lee is the prince of doom.

    We are in a good place. All in all when we look at what was predicted at the start of the pandemic we haven't done that badly. We are in a bad place now. But it will be short lived. Hospital cases will peak by the weekend. By end of January things will be looking good again.
    Which is it?
    I'm inclined to believe the latter considering death tolls like those announced last night are going to become the norm over the next few weeks. While things will be better come the end of january, that doesn't mean the death toll in between isn't happening.


  • #4575
    kilkenny31
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 701 ✭✭✭kilkenny31


    CrabRevolution wrote: »
    Which is it?
    I'm inclined to believe the latter considering death tolls like those announced last night are going to become the norm over the next few weeks. While things will be better come the end of january, that doesn't mean the death toll in between isn't happening.

    We are in a good place compared to the predictions made at the start of the pandemic. When It comes to deaths we will be in a bad place for the next few weeks. But things are improving. The sad thing is when there is a spike deaths generaly happen when things are looking OK again.


  • #4576
    cameramonkey
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,220 ✭✭✭cameramonkey


    kilkenny31 wrote: »
    If you look at hospital figures the growth rate has really slowed. Come the weekend/early next week this will have levelled off with people from the surge being discharged. ICU will lag someway behind. What we are seeing now is a result of christmas. Christmas is almost 3 weeks behind us now. New infections peaked over a week ago if you look at the daily swab figures.


    I think the average lag time for people being hospitalised from time of first symptoms is about 13 days. So people going into hospital today maybe picked up covid 16 to 18 days ago or there about. That means they were infected around the last week in December.


  • #4577
    Cerveza
    Closed Accounts Posts: 424 ✭✭Cerveza


    kilkenny31 wrote: »
    We are in a good place compared to the predictions made at the start of the pandemic. When It comes to deaths we will be in a bad place for the next few weeks. But things are improving. The sad thing is when there is a spike deaths generaly happen when things are looking OK again.

    Is it a good or a bad place?


  • #4578
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Hugh was on the radio there and seemed optimistic we will be into a form of level 3 by late February.


  • #4579
    kilkenny31
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 701 ✭✭✭kilkenny31


    cameramonkey wrote: »
    I think the average lag time for people being hospitalised from time of first symptoms is about 13 days. So people going into hospital today maybe picked up covid 16 to 18 days ago or there about. That means they were infected around the last week in December.

    Yeah thats why I expect the hospital figures to peak fairly soon.


  • #4580
    CrabRevolution
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,959 ✭✭✭CrabRevolution


    kilkenny31 wrote: »
    We are in a good place compared to the predictions made at the start of the pandemic. When It comes to deaths we will be in a bad place for the next few weeks. But things are improving. The sad thing is when there is a spike deaths generaly happen when things are looking OK again.
    I think most people would agree that's a total irrelevance. We're currently in the worst case scenario as envisaged in July or even November.

    If anything comparing to last March makes the current situation look even worse, since at the time we knew little but we've learned so much about the disease and what's needed to contain it, yet are still going to have 100s of deaths over the next few weeks.


  • #4581
    hotmail.com
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,382 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    Even Simon Harris has criticised the slowness of the vaccines process now.


  • Advertisement
  • #4582
    StevenToast
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,048 ✭✭✭StevenToast


    Sleety_Rain wrote: »
    Hugh was on the radio there and seemed optimistic we will be into a form of level 3 by late February.

    Oh great...so we can tear the ar$e out of it for Paddys Day then...

    Will Ryan Tubridy encourage that again like he did for christmas?

    "Don't piss down my back and tell me it's raining." - Fletcher



  • #4583
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    kilkenny31 wrote: »
    Yeah thats why I expect the hospital figures to peak fairly soon.

    You might be right about a peak, but you don't seem to have any understanding of how hospitalisations tend to tail off.
    Nor do you seem to have an appreciation of the rising age of the people being infected, and the consequences that will have for hospitalisations.

    Take a look at what happened here back in April

    539318.png


  • #4584
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    StevenToast wrote: »
    Oh great...so we can tear the ar$e out of it for Paddys Day then...

    Will Ryan Tubridy encourage that again like he did for christmas?

    Ha level 3 won't include opening hospitality I'd be sure of that! Maybe outside dining!


  • #4585
    Eod100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,176 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    It's not much but hopefully an early sign that things are slowly improving:

    https://twitter.com/_BenFinnegan/status/1349319889618673665


  • #4586
    Eod100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,176 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    Sleety_Rain wrote: »
    Hugh was on the radio there and seemed optimistic we will be into a form of level 3 by late February.

    Hugh O'Connell? Know Varadkar told businesses to expect to be in it until end of March but maybe that was to soften blow of extending it at end of January.

    Guess if vaccines happen quicker than they plan they might ease restrictions a bit quicker.


  • #4587
    kilkenny31
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 701 ✭✭✭kilkenny31


    TonyMaloney wrote: »
    You might be right about a peak, but you don't seem to have any understanding of how hospitalisations tend to tail off.
    Nor do you seem to have an appreciation of the rising age of the people being infected, and the consequences that will have for hospitalisations.

    Take a look at what happened here back in April

    539318.png

    This is different. We have one big spike caused by 2-3 weeks of free for all over Christmas. Hospital figures will peak by the weekend.


  • #4588
    CrabRevolution
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,959 ✭✭✭CrabRevolution


    kilkenny31 wrote: »
    This is different. We have one big spike caused by 2-3 weeks of free for all over Christmas. Hospital figures will peak by the weekend.
    I don't think they were disagreeing about there being a peak soon. If I have it right they're saying that hospitalisations (and hence the strain on the health service) drop a lot slower than they rise. It took a month to get to the peak in April, then despite weeks of hard lockdown it took 2 months to get from the peak back to low levels.


  • #4589
    MerlinSouthDub
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,627 ✭✭✭MerlinSouthDub


    GP referral data is out. Very encouraging, big fall from yesterday, and at about half last week's typical levels. Still double pre Christmas numbers, but good progress.

    https://tomorrowscare.ie/covid/2021-01-13_COVID_GP_Survey_Results.pdf


  • #4590
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,190 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    Eod100 wrote: »
    It's not much but hopefully an early sign that things are slowly improving:

    https://twitter.com/_BenFinnegan/status/1349319889618673665
    He's way behind. He's looking at case data from 11th January, which is already up to 2 days behind the swab data.
    Numbers are improving quite steadily at this stage.


  • Advertisement
  • #4591
    kilkenny31
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 701 ✭✭✭kilkenny31


    CrabRevolution wrote: »
    I don't think they were disagreeing about there being a peak soon. If I have it right they're saying that hospitalisations (and hence the strain on the health service) drop a lot slower than they rise. It took a month to get to the peak in April, then despite weeks of hard lockdown it took 2 months to get from the peak back to low levels.

    I'm not saying that we will see a big drop off. But someone posted the figures earlier and there was 100 discharges yesterday. We will over the next few days likely have more discharges then admissions. I also think that the peak in April was a lot slower to get to. We hit this peak pretty quickly. I think we will see a drop in hospital numbers quickly too.


This discussion has been closed.
Advertisement