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Covid 19 Part XXXI-187,554 ROI (2,970 deaths) 100,319 NI (1,730 deaths)(24/01)Read OP

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Comments

  • #4232
    Eod100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,175 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    Not sure if this was posted but someone mad a graph calculator yoke to calculate when herd immunity would be achieved depending on how many people are vaccinated a week.

    https://observablehq.com/@shabouwcaw/herd-immunity-timeline-calculator-with-country-selector


  • #4233
    Arduach
    Closed Accounts Posts: 618 ✭✭✭Arduach


    Diabhalta wrote: »
    That recent spike in numbers is obviously from household visits during the christmas period, so why closing shops, restaurants and gyms??? WHY??? It's not them causing the spike.

    I stopped excercising last year in March.. I was working on something, I was getting somewhere. I lost some weight, gained muscle. It was great 5-6 months and I was looking forward to get healthier and healthier. Continued for a while during the first lockdown but somehow I don't have a swimming pool at home, sauna and fully equipped gym so I gave up. Saunas are closed since March.. unbelievable. I was lucky that I traveled in August abroad and used sauna there. Great feeling knowing I could sweat out all the toxins from my body.

    Horribly mismanaged this whole covid thing, I hope the government will get sued once the dust settles.. Closing everything down, opening everything, closing and opening... What a circus ran by clowns. Unbelievable.

    126813375-902338057174482-2600745050881540544-n.jpg

    Very easy to workout at home with everyday equipment and using body weight. Search youtube and you'll find plenty of workouts. No excuses.


  • #4234
    Chairman Meow
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,228 ✭✭✭Chairman Meow


    Eod100 wrote: »
    Any idea why? I get personal autonomy and all that but not sure that outweighs duty to protect others especially in roles like that.

    I dont think there was any reason given other than the "i dont trust it". coming from people working in healthcare i was stunned.


  • #4235
    MerlinSouthDub
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,627 ✭✭✭MerlinSouthDub


    What Username Guidelines wrote: »
    Decent drop - 2,456 swabs on 17,765 13.82% :)

    Great and fast progress. 6 days ago daily positivity was 24%, and 6865 positive swabs. Really hoping to see hospital admissions drop in the next few days.


  • #4236
    eigrod
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,001 ✭✭✭eigrod


    seamus wrote: »
    The good trend continues. 7-day rate now 19.19%

    Expect a hiccup tomorrow.

    Why the expected hiccup tomorrow?


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  • #4237
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,690 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    eigrod wrote: »
    Why the expected hiccup tomorrow?

    More tests on Tuesday after Monday referrals?


  • #4238
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Eod100 wrote: »
    Not sure if this was posted but someone mad a graph calculator yoke to calculate when herd immunity would be achieved depending on how many people are vaccinated a week.

    https://observablehq.com/@shabouwcaw/herd-immunity-timeline-calculator-with-country-selector
    His 80% doesn't exclude the 1m or so we won't be vaccinating.


  • #4239
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    eigrod wrote: »
    Why the expected hiccup tomorrow?
    GP referrals a little higher and of course you have to have a backlog!


  • #4240
    Diabhalta
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,750 ✭✭✭Diabhalta


    Arduach wrote: »
    Very easy to workout at home with everyday equipment and using body weight. Search youtube and you'll find plenty of workouts. No excuses.

    Oh yeah, how do I swim in my house, how much it costs to build a sauna? ... there's plenty of things you can't do at home without the right equipment.


  • #4241
    Diabhalta
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,750 ✭✭✭Diabhalta


    and I'm not gonna go out there jogging in this weather...


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  • #4242
    Miike
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,021 ✭✭✭Miike


    Diabhalta wrote: »
    Oh yeah, how do I swim in my house, how much it costs to build a sauna? ... there's plenty of things you can't do at home without the right equipment.

    Oh Jesus, you're so right.

    ...And how will I afford to build both an airplane AND airport at home? My annual trip to Fiji is of paramount importance to my physical and mental well-being.


  • #4243
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,190 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    To give an idea of where we are with projections.

    We're currently testing an average of 23,000 people per day.

    The most pessimistic models would put positivity at 9% at the end of the month.

    The most optimistic would put it at 3.5%.

    Thus we can expect swabs in the range of 800 - 2,000 by the end of the month.

    Which seems like a massive variance, but in the context that we started the month with 5,586 positive swabs, it can only be a good thing.

    The main question now is not whether the rate is dropping, but how far and fast it will fall before it starts to plateau. The current figures suggest we may enter into a short burst of exponential decay - swabs will halve week-on-week - which would put us in a really good position at the end of the month.

    Need another few days though.


  • #4244
    Diabhalta
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,750 ✭✭✭Diabhalta


    Miike wrote: »
    Oh Jesus, you're so right.

    ...And how will I afford to build both an airplane AND airport at home? My annual trip to Fiji is of paramount importance to my physical and mental well-being.

    just drive there, duh.


  • #4245
    Gruffalux
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,023 ✭✭✭Gruffalux


    Diabhalta wrote: »
    Oh yeah, how do I swim in my house, how much it costs to build a sauna? ... there's plenty of things you can't do at home without the right equipment.

    Tethered swimming. You are welcome https://outdoorswimmer.com/news/tethered-swimming-how-to-train-for-the-open-water-in-your-back-garden


  • #4246
    Chairman Meow
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,228 ✭✭✭Chairman Meow


    Diabhalta wrote: »
    Oh yeah, how do I swim in my house, how much it costs to build a sauna? ... there's plenty of things you can't do at home without the right equipment.

    Come on man. That attitude wont get you anything done. My main workouts before the pandemic were grappling and weightlifting. I cant do any of that now but there's a 1001 home workouts you can do to keep in shape and feel good and requires zero equipment.


  • #4247
    bb1234567
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    What Username Guidelines wrote: »
    Decent drop - 2,456 swabs on 17,765 13.82% :)

    Wow some drop. Maybe Kilkenny lad was onto something after all with his prediction of 1000 by weekend :pac:


  • #4248
    brick tamland
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,572 ✭✭✭brick tamland


    seamus wrote: »
    To give an idea of where we are with projections.

    We're currently testing an average of 23,000 people per day.

    The most pessimistic models would put positivity at 9% at the end of the month.

    The most optimistic would put it at 3.5%.

    Thus we can expect swabs in the range of 800 - 2,000 by the end of the month.

    Which seems like a massive variance, but in the context that we started the month with 5,586 positive swabs, it can only be a good thing.

    The main question now is not whether the rate is dropping, but how far and fast it will fall before it starts to plateau. The current figures suggest we may enter into a short burst of exponential decay - swabs will halve week-on-week - which would put us in a really good position at the end of the month.

    Need another few days though.


    Yep, looking at the drops Id be fairly sure we can get the cases down to level they were at in late October by the end of the month. Those numbers were deemed safe for schools to remain open in October so very hopeful the schools can reopen from then and not after Mid term.


  • #4249
    D.Q
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,054 ✭✭✭D.Q


    Diabhalta wrote: »
    Oh yeah, how do I swim in my house, how much it costs to build a sauna? ... there's plenty of things you can't do at home without the right equipment.

    A sufficiently hot bath will solve both these issues for you.


  • #4250
    KrustyUCC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,077 ✭✭✭KrustyUCC


    brick tamland wrote: »
    Yep, looking at the drops Id be fairly sure we can get the cases down to level they were at in late October by the end of the month. Those numbers were deemed safe for schools to remain open in October so very hopeful the schools can reopen from then and not after Mid term.

    Teachers won't go back before midterm though

    Two weeks back then a break?

    Be one thing if midterm was cancelled and schools made up for lost time but I can't see it happening


  • #4251
    rodneyTrotter.
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 315 ✭✭rodneyTrotter.


    Diabhalta wrote: »
    and I'm not gonna go out there jogging in this weather...

    Why not ? You get warmed up pretty fast running - the hardest part is getting out the door .


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  • #4252
    MerlinSouthDub
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,627 ✭✭✭MerlinSouthDub


    brick tamland wrote: »
    Yep, looking at the drops Id be fairly sure we can get the cases down to level they were at in late October by the end of the month. Those numbers were deemed safe for schools to remain open in October so very hopeful the schools can reopen from then and not after Mid term.

    I'm very much in favour of opening schools when it is safe to do so, and I think numbers might be down to October levels by the end of the month. I think the big issue will be hospital capacity. That will still be in poor enough shape by end of January (ICU capacity in particular) and it would be very risky to fully reopen schools at that stage. I think they should phase the re-opening this time, because there are some new risks (UK variant).


  • #4253
    History Queen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,487 ✭✭✭History Queen


    KrustyUCC wrote: »
    Teachers won't go back before midterm though

    Two weeks back then a break?

    Be one thing if midterm was cancelled and schools made up for lost time but I can't see it happening

    We will go back before midterm if we can


  • #4254
    brick tamland
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,572 ✭✭✭brick tamland


    KrustyUCC wrote: »
    Teachers won't go back before midterm though

    Two weeks back then a break?

    Be one thing if midterm was cancelled and schools made up for lost time but I can't see it happening

    why not?

    they worked through late October/early November when cases would probably have been at (remains to be seen obviously) been at higher/similar levels.

    They should look at getting the special needs kids back even sooner too.


  • #4255
    KrustyUCC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,077 ✭✭✭KrustyUCC


    History Queen wrote: »
    We will go back before midterm if we can

    I hope you're right


  • #4256
    What Username Guidelines
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,139 ✭✭✭What Username Guidelines


    Diabhalta wrote: »
    and I'm not gonna go out there jogging in this weather...

    What is it you want exactly?


  • #4257
    KrustyUCC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,077 ✭✭✭KrustyUCC


    brick tamland wrote: »
    why not?

    they worked through late October/early November when cases would probably have been at (remains to be seen obviously) been at higher/similar levels.

    They should look at getting the special needs kids back even sooner too.

    I think numbers will need to be lower than Oct/Nov to get them back on board especially for Secondary schools

    I know a Principal in Limerick and a board of management member in Cork

    Union officials indicating than the schools should remain shut until after midterm

    Might just be two schools but I'd say it's representative of many more

    Yes special needs schools should hopefully be back in February as they certainly can't learn online


  • #4258
    Amirani
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 12,554 Mod ✭✭✭✭Amirani


    KrustyUCC wrote: »
    I think numbers will need to be lower than Oct/Nov to get them back on board especially for Secondary schoolscan't learn online

    I think so too, particularly as hospitals are going to be much worse than Oct/Nov. It's a very different context.

    After mid-term is probably a realistic target to get full school population back, might have some portion back before.


  • #4259
    cameramonkey
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,220 ✭✭✭cameramonkey


    Diabhalta wrote: »
    Oh yeah, how do I swim in my house, how much it costs to build a sauna? ... there's plenty of things you can't do at home without the right equipment.
    https://www.wish.com/product/5f5335ca3ea1751551e5dfb1?hide_login_modal=true&from_ad=goog_shopping&_display_country_code=IE&_force_currency_code=EUR&pid=googleadwords_int&c=%7BcampaignId%7D&ad_cid=5f5335ca3ea1751551e5dfb1&ad_cc=IE&ad_curr=EUR&ad_price=36.00&campaign_id=9527731323&exclude_install=true&gclid=Cj0KCQiArvX_BRCyARIsAKsnTxOW5D_REfmzjo_2GRHFYadn2lHRAu1lYUYqVsIY871CwBatio-tiEsaAkJiEALw_wcB&share=web

    35 squid portable sauna


  • #4260
    KrustyUCC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,077 ✭✭✭KrustyUCC


    Amirani wrote: »
    I think so too, particularly as hospitals are going to be much worse than Oct/Nov. It's a very different context.

    After mid-term is probably a realistic target to get full school population back, might have some portion back before.

    That's reasonable

    I think 1st of February will come too soon but that progress will be made before then


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  • #4261
    polesheep
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,950 ✭✭✭polesheep


    KrustyUCC wrote: »
    Teachers won't go back before midterm though

    Two weeks back then a break?

    Be one thing if midterm was cancelled and schools made up for lost time but I can't see it happening

    Why not switch the mid-term break to the last week of January?


This discussion has been closed.
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