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Covid 19 Part XXXI-187,554 ROI (2,970 deaths) 100,319 NI (1,730 deaths)(24/01)Read OP

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Comments

  • #3992
    mandrake04
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,435 ✭✭✭mandrake04


    ek motor wrote: »
    That article does not state 23k Scots died of influenza

    No it said the were 810 additional flu & Pneumonia deaths over winter


  • #3993
    Wibbs
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,323 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    Always_Running wrote: »
    I think he's probably right and we'll know for sure within a few weeks. The government will likely stick with the UK variant regardless.
    I'd also be blaming social mixing in December albeit without any real evidence save for personal observation of a limited dataset. I certainly noted people I know who had been very careful during the first lockdown and after who threw caution to the wind to some degree over Christmas. Bigger gatherings, going to crowded areas for shopping and the like. People are just jaded with it at this stage and it certainly has affected people emotionally and mentally. And no bloody wonder. We're a social animal, we need that contact and that's how infections spread sadly.

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



  • #3994
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,190 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    kilkenny31 wrote: »
    I imagine 354 will be enough. Given that new infections are levelling off. I imagine ICU figures will peak at around 250-300.
    After the October peak,, I had expected ICU figures to continue increasing quite badly, perhaps doubling, but it never came. ICU numbers peaked about 10 days after case numbers, rising about 30%, and that was that. Fingers crossed it happens again. We might get away with 200 in ICU.


  • #3995
    Happydays2020
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭Happydays2020


    seamus wrote: »
    After the October peak,, I had expected ICU figures to continue increasing quite badly, perhaps doubling, but it never came. ICU numbers peaked about 10 days after case numbers, rising about 30%, and that was that. Fingers crossed it happens again. We might get away with 200 in ICU.

    Hopefully you are correct. Is there a difference in the demographic profile of cases between October and now?


  • #3996
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    Happydays2020 wrote: »
    Hopefully you are correct. Is there a difference in the demographic profile of cases between October and now?

    Oct 18th 14 day report:
    Median age 31 years old
    Mean 36 years old

    Today's:
    Median age 36 years old
    Mean 39 years old


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  • #3997
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,690 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    TonyMaloney wrote: »
    Oct 18th 14 day report:
    Median age 31 years old
    Mean 36 years old

    Today's:
    Median age 36 years old
    Mean 39 years old

    What about percentages Tony

    Seems an awful lot of 19 -24 year old affected per 100k recently, over 1000 per 100k


  • #3998
    Happydays2020
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭Happydays2020


    TonyMaloney wrote: »
    Oct 18th 14 day report:
    Median age 31 years old
    Mean 36 years old

    Today's:
    Median age 36 years old
    Mean 39 years old

    Thanks. Well that should have some impact.


  • #3999
    ro_chez
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 574 ✭✭✭ro_chez


    Bushmaster64 wrote: »
    You literally can't even discuss an opposing view to the mainstream

    Your posts are removed. This isn't even a boards thing. It's right across all media. Censored for going against mainstream opinions. Even doctors and PhDs are being removed online and deplatformed.

    Why was my post removed because I don't agree with lockdowns?

    Utterly insane. Creeping fascism.

    Whatever about deleted posts, I don't see anybody agreeing with the point you're trying to make.

    This isn't about the "vulnerable" who die from Covid, its about the non vulnerable who contract it and need to take up a hospital bed causing the hospitals to be overwhelmed in a very short space of time.

    I don't know how you don't get this after a year of this sh1t


  • #4000
    Cluedo Monopoly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,503 ✭✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    I think many grandparents didn't spend enough time hanging out the dining room window during Christmas dinner. Wasn't that the advice?

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth House?



  • #4001
    lawred2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,757 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    ro_chez wrote: »
    Whatever about deleted posts, I don't see anybody agreeing with the point you're trying to make.

    This isn't about the "vulnerable" who die from Covid, its about the non vulnerable who contract it and need to take up a hospital bed causing the hospitals to be overwhelmed in a very short space of time.

    I don't know how you don't get this after a year of this sh1t

    The "non vulnerables" (not a term that finds much use) don't tend to end up ill with covid..


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  • #4002
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    Stheno wrote: »
    What about percentages Tony

    Seems an awful lot of 19 -24 year old affected per 100k recently, over 1000 per 100k

    here you go

    today
    539195.png

    Oct 18th
    539196.png


  • #4003
    Happydays2020
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭Happydays2020


    cameramonkey wrote: »
    He was chatting to Tony and Tony told him. Does Micky Martin Have the full data set to back up his claims, Is MM's statement helping anyone but himself?

    What does this mean?

    https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1348699262515863558?s=21


  • #4004
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    Confession - I'm still stuck on the theory that the profile of the disease has changed and that people are getting symptoms earlier and going to hospital sooner too accordingly.
    This would be bad news for the world in general I think, but really good news for us right now.

    I genuinely think the rise in hospitalisations occurred much sooner than we would have expected. And so it follows that it should slow down sooner too. Either that or I have somehow developed a positive bias.


  • #4005
    Happydays2020
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭Happydays2020


    TonyMaloney wrote: »
    Confession - I'm still stuck on the theory that the profile of the disease has changed and that people are getting symptoms earlier and going to hospital sooner too accordingly.
    This would be bad news for the world in general I think, but really good news for us right now.

    I genuinely think the rise in hospitalisations occurred much sooner than we would have expected. And so it follows that it should slow down sooner too. Either that or I have somehow developed a positive bias.

    Could lower Vitamin D levels plus increased vulnerabilities from higher alcohol consumption plus higher viral loads due to indoor settings be factors?


  • #4006
    Locotastic
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 754 ✭✭✭Locotastic


    https://www.thejournal.ie/who-herd-immunity-knocked-back-5322349-Jan2021/

    Apparently this year we won't be in the clear.


  • #4007
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    Happydays2020 wrote: »
    Could lower Vitamin D levels plus increased vulnerabilities from higher alcohol consumption plus higher viral loads due to indoor settings be factors?

    Possibly. I was thinking more along the lines of the new variant, but I really don't know.


  • #4008
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,690 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    TonyMaloney wrote: »
    Confession - I'm still stuck on the theory that the profile of the disease has changed and that people are getting symptoms earlier and going to hospital sooner too accordingly.
    This would be bad news for the world in general I think, but really good news for us right now.

    I genuinely think the rise in hospitalisations occurred much sooner than we would have expected. And so it follows that it should slow down sooner too. Either that or I have somehow developed a positive bias.

    I'm of the same view


  • #4009
    Wibbs
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,323 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    seamus wrote: »
    After the October peak,, I had expected ICU figures to continue increasing quite badly, perhaps doubling, but it never came. ICU numbers peaked about 10 days after case numbers, rising about 30%, and that was that. Fingers crossed it happens again. We might get away with 200 in ICU.
    As we used to say S: From your lips to god's ears.
    TonyMaloney wrote: »
    Either that or I have somehow developed a positive bias.
    Feck knows we all need a positive bias at this stage TM. It's always a good thing to develop.

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



  • #4010
    Happydays2020
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭Happydays2020


    TonyMaloney wrote: »
    Possibly. I was thinking more along the lines of the new variant, but I really don't know.

    I don’t know either (and admittedly I am less knowledgeable than others here) but if in the short term the further deaths are minimised then I will also be thankful.


  • #4011
    runawaybishop
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,523 ✭✭✭runawaybishop


    Locotastic wrote: »
    https://www.thejournal.ie/who-herd-immunity-knocked-back-5322349-Jan2021/

    Apparently this year we won't be in the clear.

    Worldwide, no. In Ireland, should be.


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  • #4012
    JP100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 498 ✭✭JP100


    ASIAM the autism charity along with Down Syndrome Ireland and Inclusion Ireland are calling for special schools and classes to be open. All the while they themselves have stopped all of their own in person provision and services for special needs children and their families. What a huge double standard there and something that should be pointed out to ASIAM CEO Adam Harris in his regular media outings.


  • #4013
    Wolf359f
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,421 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    TonyMaloney wrote: »
    Confession - I'm still stuck on the theory that the profile of the disease has changed and that people are getting symptoms earlier and going to hospital sooner too accordingly.
    This would be bad news for the world in general I think, but really good news for us right now.

    I genuinely think the rise in hospitalisations occurred much sooner than we would have expected. And so it follows that it should slow down sooner too. Either that or I have somehow developed a positive bias.

    I think it's just because of lack of testing, similar to march. So that delay makes it appear that the lag between cases and hospitalisation appears shorter.
    Not to mention the backlog built up over Christmas, many of them could have ended up in hospital well before their case was notified in daily figures.


  • #4014
    majcos
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 596 ✭✭✭majcos


    TonyMaloney wrote: »
    Confession - I'm still stuck on the theory that the profile of the disease has changed and that people are getting symptoms earlier and going to hospital sooner too accordingly.
    This would be bad news for the world in general I think, but really good news for us right now.

    I genuinely think the rise in hospitalisations occurred much sooner than we would have expected. And so it follows that it should slow down sooner too. Either that or I have somehow developed a positive bias.
    Why do you think people are getting symptoms earlier and going to hospital earlier? What data is leading you to come to that conclusion?

    Not being snarky, just curious as to what is your reasoning for this theory?


  • #4015
    marno21
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 14,658 Mod ✭✭✭✭marno21


    Locotastic wrote: »
    https://www.thejournal.ie/who-herd-immunity-knocked-back-5322349-Jan2021/

    Apparently this year we won't be in the clear.

    There may be merit in that if it were called the Irish Health Organisation. I’m sure RTÉ will be quick to relay the bad news though without providing context.


  • #4016
    bb1234567
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    Happydays2020 wrote: »
    Could lower Vitamin D levels plus increased vulnerabilities from higher alcohol consumption plus higher viral loads due to indoor settings be factors?

    Has Vitamin D actually been established as a cause of worse course of illness? Low vitamin D is common in many of the at risk groups, (obese, over 65, dark non-white ethnicity so it could be completely correlational that most people who die of COVID are low in Vitamin D


  • #4017
    Happydays2020
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭Happydays2020


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    Has Vitamin D actually been established as a cause of worse course of illness? Low vitamin D is common in many of the at risk groups, (obese, over 65, dark non-white ethnicity so it could be completely correlational that most people who die of COVID are low in Vitamin D

    This article seems to suggest a causal link https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/vitamin-d-deficit-link-to-covid-19-severity-considerable-1.4371795


  • #4018
    The HorsesMouth
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 512 ✭✭✭The HorsesMouth


    TonyMaloney wrote: »
    Confession - I'm still stuck on the theory that the profile of the disease has changed and that people are getting symptoms earlier and going to hospital sooner too accordingly.
    This would be bad news for the world in general I think, but really good news for us right now.

    I genuinely think the rise in hospitalisations occurred much sooner than we would have expected. And so it follows that it should slow down sooner too. Either that or I have somehow developed a positive bias.

    On that though I will say there are 7 of us across 2 houses infected since new years. The variety in symptoms and timing of symptoms is just crazy. Some have been sickest on day 3 and some got worse on day 10. Granted it's tough to know exactly what day is what especially when symptoms are mild.
    FWIW no one here is that sick at all. And age range is from 5 up to 60.


  • #4019
    majcos
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 596 ✭✭✭majcos


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    Has Vitamin D actually been established as a cause of worse course of illness? Low vitamin D is common in many of the at risk groups, (obese, over 65, dark non-white ethnicity so it could be completely correlational that most people who die of COVID are low in Vitamin D
    Always going to difficult to definitively prove. Even in matched cohorts of patients with similar demographics, it would be hard to correct for other confounders such as having a healthier diet, taking more exercise, and spending more time outdoors.

    For those already on Vitamin D supplements with already artificially corrected vitamin D levels, even that in itself is a confounder. If you’re taking supplements, you are more likely to have attended your doctor and have other diagnosed conditions that might have also been there but undiagnosed in those not taking supplements, and more likely to be taking your other medications regularly and properly if you are compliant with taking your vitamin D supplements.

    Lower Vitamin D levels have been associated in many studies with poorer outcomes but hard to know if that is a reflection of those who are already less healthy and less likely to look after their health or due to the vitamin D deficiency itself.

    A definite link rather than a causal relationship. Not known if treating someone with Vitamin D supplements who just now been diagnosed with Covid will make any difference to outcomes at that point when disease has already presented.


  • #4020
    kilkenny31
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 701 ✭✭✭kilkenny31


    TonyMaloney wrote: »
    Confession - I'm still stuck on the theory that the profile of the disease has changed and that people are getting symptoms earlier and going to hospital sooner too accordingly.
    This would be bad news for the world in general I think, but really good news for us right now.

    I genuinely think the rise in hospitalisations occurred much sooner than we would have expected. And so it follows that it should slow down sooner too. Either that or I have somehow developed a positive bias.

    Totally agree. That's why I've been saying that we will likely see the hospital figures peak this weekend with the ICU to peak towards the middle/end of next week.

    I wonder if sometimes we are overly cautious. For example if you are a close contact you isolate for 14 days in Ireland. Other countries its 7 days.

    I think we will actually see the number of new admissions to hospital slow over the next few days. That coupled with people being discharged we will peak at the weekend. I also still say that we will have less than 1000 positive swabs by the weekend.


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  • #4021
    majcos
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 596 ✭✭✭majcos


    HSE operations report 11/1.

    Covid cases hospitalised as of 8pm 1620 - increase from 1499

    ICU confirmed Covid cases 143 as of 6.30pm - increase from 127.
    1 death in ICU 24 hours up to 8am.
    Confirmed Covid cases ventilated 74 as of 6.30pm - increase from 69.

    Available ICU beds 30 as of 6.30pm.
    13 ICUs with no available beds.
    Total open and staffed ICU beds increased to 301.


This discussion has been closed.
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