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Covid 19 Part XXXI-187,554 ROI (2,970 deaths) 100,319 NI (1,730 deaths)(24/01)Read OP

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  • #3632
    lawred2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,756 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    Datacore wrote: »
    This schools thing is both unrealistic and very unfair on teachers, students and parents.

    It’s not looking remotely realistic that they can or should open schools in February.

    Please, please stop setting expectations with hard dates for stuff like this. It creates false promises for some and is looking frighteningly reckless for others.

    Put a contingency in place now for the LC.

    The fact that there was a contingency for remote learning & continuous assessment built out by now is, in my view, negligence at worst and deluded optimism at best.

    In your opinion. The end of Jan is 3 weeks away.

    Schools were open from start Sep to end December and the sky didn't fall in. Your opinion flies in the face of the medical professionals who deem schools to be inherently safe places and the data exists to support that.

    What's your emotive opinion supported by?


  • #3633
    Datacore
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 178 ✭✭Datacore


    alentejo wrote: »
    Lets wait and see how things are at the end of January.
    Covid will pass, education disruption by children will have long lasting impacts.

    That’s my point.
    They should have known that a massive spike was a possibility. We now have a situation where instead of a contingency system that might have actually worked and supported students, we just will be writing off most of their education because nobody seemed to be capable of getting their head around the possibility that there was a high risk of a surge of cases.

    We’re not in NZ or Australia’s position. We’re in the same situation as the U.K. and many US States. For all the laughing at the US, most of their State school systems have put very strong contingencies in place and did so earlier in this.

    My reading of this is that it’s a mixture of dogmatic inflexibility and frankly just inertia and utter incompetence.

    Stoically restating that you’ll reopen schools, when that may well be impossible, does nothing to deliver an education in the midst of a crisis.


  • #3634
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    lawred2 wrote: »
    In your opinion. The end of Jan is 3 weeks away.

    Schools were open from start Sep to end December and the sky didn't fall in. Your opinion flies in the face of the medical professionals who deem schools to be inherently safe places and the data exists to support that.

    What's your emotive opinion supported by?

    Well the new strain may change all that. We don't have any local data on how school settings will perform with it spreading.

    Besides, this time around hospitals are a huge worry. We're going to have a lot of covid patients in them for some time.
    Even a much smaller outbreak could overwhelm our hospitals again.

    In three weeks time our hospitals will still be incredibly busy. Are you really confident schools will open at the same time?


  • #3635
    titan18
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,052 ✭✭✭✭titan18


    lawred2 wrote: »
    In your opinion. The end of Jan is 3 weeks away.

    Schools were open from start Sep to end December and the sky didn't fall in. Your opinion flies in the face of the medical professionals who deem schools to be inherently safe places and the data exists to support that.

    What's your emotive opinion supported by?

    Do we have data on the impact of the new covid variant in Irish schools?


  • #3636
    lawred2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,756 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    TonyMaloney wrote: »
    Well the new strain may change all that. We don't have any local data on how school settings will perform with it spreading.

    Besides, this time around hospitals are a huge worry. We're going to have a lot of covid patients in them for some time.
    Even a much smaller outbreak could overwhelm our hospitals again.

    In three weeks time our hospitals will still be incredibly busy. Are you really confident schools will open at the same time?

    I'm not in to hysterical predictions based on feelings to be honest


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  • #3637
    Datacore
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 178 ✭✭Datacore


    Realistically, and assuming there’s very serious cooperation with the restrictions, I think we might be lucky to have this under control by March.

    If there’s poor compliance, the level of infection out there will keep it rolling and rolling. It’s a far, far more challenging situation than we faced in April.

    Are we actually capable of doing an Australian style short sharp shock type approach to flatten the curve? All indications would tend to point towards Irish public attitudes being closer to the USA, albeit a softer and more passive aggressive version of the same.

    We did nothing about air travel, despite all the warnings. We failed to implement testing at airports. We don’t want to use quarantine. Seemingly it’s politically or socially unpalatable to ask people to quarantine in hotels when entering the state. We won’t enforce masks or any of that stuff other than by gentle reminder signage. We left retailers in positions where they were getting abuse from anti maskers with little or no comeback or support, which has led to them often just ignoring them.

    Then on the public side, once Christmas arrived we went into “must have normal Christmas at all costs” mode and all costs have been absolutely enormous. Try calculating the costs to the health system and of a hard lockdown to the economy and that’s before you even begin to calculate the human costs.

    It’s very much a nation or “I’ve had my fun and that’s all that matters.” We just don’t like to admit that as it doesn’t fit out fuzzy self image.


  • #3638
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,190 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    Datacore wrote: »
    My reading of this is that it’s a mixture of dogmatic inflexibility
    That's funny. One could say the same about people insisting that schools won't open again.

    There are short-term contingency plans in place to support education in Ireland. Schools have today activated them.

    Why short-term? Because we know that we can open schools safely, so investment in long-term remote learning is a lot of work when this is an issue that will persist for one academic year.

    February is 20 days away. 20 days ago we had 700 cases.

    There is a lot of runway between now and February. No point in making definite predictions.


  • #3639
    The_Brood
    Closed Accounts Posts: 838 ✭✭✭The_Brood


    You would think that the bare minimum the government would guarantee in a mass stay at home shutdown is that people receive packages they order on time, or at least within a reasonable timeframe.

    Whatever is causing this right now, brexit, covid etc is doing the opposite, massive delays on all parcels from everywhere it seems.

    Is there not even one drop of responsibility from anyone we are allowed to ask?


  • #3640
    titan18
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,052 ✭✭✭✭titan18


    seamus wrote: »
    That's funny. One could say the same about people insisting that schools won't open again.

    There are short-term contingency plans in place to support education in Ireland. Schools have today activated them.

    Why short-term? Because we know that we can open schools safely, so investment in long-term remote learning is a lot of work when this is an issue that will persist for one academic year.

    February is 20 days away. 20 days ago we had 700 cases.

    There is a lot of runway between now and February. No point in making definite predictions.

    True, but I'd argue it shouldn't be just cases that decide on when schools open, although it's probably the best guide. In 20 days time, cases might be down, but if hospitals are still in crap, I'd say schools shouldn't open. Likewise if contact tracing can't be done and public health teams are still swamped, it's a hard sell to the teachers too imo.

    Heard nothing either on what's happening with February mid term so if that's not being cancelled (and it should probably be along with less Easter holidays imo) to gain back time, is there much of a point in reopening for a week and then closing again for mid term.


  • #3641
    NIMAN
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,788 ✭✭✭✭NIMAN


    Datacore wrote: »

    Are we actually capable of doing an Australian style short sharp shock type approach to flatten the curve?

    I think we'd need to invent a new level to get to that.

    We have had level 5 restrictions twice now and a lot of society seems to be going about their business as normal.

    By a short sharp shock I would assume you mean proper level 5. 2km from home for exercise, only shopping is food and medicine, only the most essential workers allowed out, curfews, and fines for rule breaking.

    We haven't got the stomach to introduce such measures.


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  • #3642
    Jim_Hodge
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,144 ✭✭✭✭Jim_Hodge


    Datacore wrote: »
    That’s my point.
    They should have known that a massive spike was a possibility. We now have a situation where instead of a contingency system that might have actually worked and supported students, we just will be writing off most of their education because nobody seemed to be capable of getting their head around the possibility that there was a high risk of a surge of cases.

    We’re not in NZ or Australia’s position. We’re in the same situation as the U.K. and many US States. For all the laughing at the US, most of their State school systems have put very strong contingencies in place and did so earlier in this.

    My reading of this is that it’s a mixture of dogmatic inflexibility and frankly just inertia and utter incompetence.

    Stoically restating that you’ll reopen schools, when that may well be impossible, does nothing to deliver an education in the midst of a crisis.

    Jeez, exaggerate much? Your ability to see with such clear hindsight is remarkable.

    It's a term that's affected not 'most of their education'. This is short term in very sense if the word and requires short term measured.


  • #3643
    tigger123
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,596 ✭✭✭tigger123


    The_Brood wrote: »
    You would think that the bare minimum the government would guarantee in a mass stay at home shutdown is that people receive packages they order on time, or at least within a reasonable timeframe.

    Whatever is causing this right now, brexit, covid etc is doing the opposite, massive delays on all parcels from everywhere it seems.

    Is there not even one drop of responsibility from anyone we are allowed to ask?

    Have you contacted your local post office?


  • #3644
    Datacore
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 178 ✭✭Datacore


    Jim_Hodge wrote: »
    Jeez, exaggerate much? Your ability to see with such clear hindsight is remarkable.

    It's a term that's affected not 'most of their education'. This is short term in very sense if the word and requires short term measured.

    They missed a big chunk of last year too.

    Let’s all just pretend that it’s fine and everything is absolutely dandy and that our government’s and social attitudes are totally fine, yeah?

    This is a total fiasco and it’s those kinds of “wear the green jersey” or “see no evil, hear no evil” attitudes that destroy this place. I’m reminded very much of the run up to the financial crash. Anyone remember the “soft landing”?
    I’m still paying for that one.


  • #3645
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    lawred2 wrote: »
    I'm not in to hysterical predictions based on feelings to be honest

    I asked for a prediction based on extremely high hospitalisation levels, not your feelings.

    There's nothing hysterical in saying that in three weeks times our hospitals are likely to have a lot of covid patients in them, and that makes it unlikely that NPHET will recommend a course of action that could see a spike in cases and the hospitals overwhelmed again.

    That is just my "emotive" opinion of course


  • #3646
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,190 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    titan18 wrote: »
    True, but I'd argue it shouldn't be just cases that decide on when schools open, although it's probably the best guide. In 20 days time, cases might be down, but if hospitals are still in crap, I'd say schools shouldn't open. Likewise if contact tracing can't be done and public health teams are still swamped, it's a hard sell to the teachers too imo.
    No, it won't be cases alone, it'll be a load of factors. Based on the whole part about keeping movements down, NPHET may advise that secondary schools go back before primary. As these are less likely to require parents moving around too.
    Heard nothing either on what's happening with February mid term so if that's not being cancelled (and it should probably be along with less Easter holidays imo) to gain back time, is there much of a point in reopening for a week and then closing again for mid term.
    Teachers are working right now, so for them we can't cancel the mid-term "just because". They did get an extra 3 days after Xmas though, which can be offset against the mid-term.


  • #3647
    lawred2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,756 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    TonyMaloney wrote: »
    I asked for a prediction based on extremely high hospitalisation levels, not your feelings.

    There's nothing hysterical in saying that in three weeks times our hospitals are likely to have a lot of covid patients in them, and that makes it unlikely that NPHET will recommend a course of action that could see a spike in cases and the hospitals overwhelmed again.

    That is just my "emotive" opinion of course

    There's little evidence to support the contention that the schools could cause case numbers to spike given that they were open for four months of 2020 without any such spikes.

    If case numbers are at a reduced level then current restrictions with schools open could prove sufficient to reduce further strain on hospitals.

    But this is three weeks away. It's wasted energy.


  • #3648
    MerlinSouthDub
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,627 ✭✭✭MerlinSouthDub


    Latest GP Referral data is out. I think this relates to Friday GP activity.

    Another fall, but the pace is fairly slow - GP Referrals for covid are still 2 to 3 times higher than in the days before Christmas.

    https://tomorrowscare.ie/covid/2021-01-11_COVID_GP_Survey_Results.pdf


  • #3649
    OwenM
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 859 ✭✭✭OwenM


    TonyMaloney wrote: »
    Yes. I see no signs of contrition or learning from them.
    It wasn't the first time they ignored the expert advice and made us pay the consequences, and it's unlikely to be the last.

    Like when Holohan advised against a tribunal to look into CervicalCheck?

    https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-30910324.html

    Expertise doesn't equal infallibility.


  • #3650
    Datacore
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 178 ✭✭Datacore


    NIMAN wrote: »
    I think we'd need to invent a new level to get to that.

    We have had level 5 restrictions twice now and a lot of society seems to be going about their business as normal.

    By a short sharp shock I would assume you mean proper level 5. 2km from home for exercise, only shopping is food and medicine, only the most essential workers allowed out, curfews, and fines for rule breaking.

    We haven't got the stomach to introduce such measures.

    Well it would reduce this to a 2 or 3 week disruption instead of a long, dragged out mess.

    What’s really worrying me is that we don’t know that a gentle level of restrictions, with probably poor buy in and little enforcement, will actually achieve anything. The level of community infection seems to be astronomically high.

    It’s very possible that we will find, without tighter measures, that it just drags on for months.

    We certainly don’t have the stomach either at government or public level to do this. I think you can pin the lack of contingencies on the government, but the social attitudes are reflected by it.

    Also if you think I’m proposing that any of the opposition parties would be any better, you must be kidding yourself. All of our political parties are reflecting a softly, softly type attitude, which is fine and probably very accurately representing the public, but we need to have a proper discussion about short term vs medium and long term.

    There’s a continuous reference here to a false dichotomy - that there’s a choice between not controlling covid or having a flourishing economy. That’s the same argument that has killed the U.K. response and it’s why the US is basically a COVID Petri dish.

    If you don’t manage the covid numbers, you’ll continue to cause huge economic damage. There wasn’t a tourism sector to save. Nobody was travelling here other than a bunch of Irish people returning (with viruses) at Xmas.

    The hospitality sector and many other aspects of retail and face to face business cannot operate in a context of high community infection levels. Education is extremely disrupted for the same reasons.

    If we can’t get our heads around the fact that this zero sum equation putting control of COVID on one side and the economy on the other is a false and totally inaccurate representation, we are just going to continue to walk into a brick wall over and over and over.

    The economy and the normal functioning of society are curtailed BY COVID not by the measures to try to contain it.


  • #3651
    GreeBo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,507 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    CalamariFritti wrote: »
    If from 100 covid hospitalisations we have 2 that are really only sprained ankles that is not a problem. But if it was 30 then I think it borders on manipulation to include the figures. It is therefore legitimate to ask. Cant see anything wrong with that.

    If that was the case Id be far more worried about ANKLE-20 as it would appear to be ravaging the entire world.


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  • #3652
    GreeBo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,507 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    Sorry I can't respond I'm in a hurry, I have to drop the kids off for school.......
    oh wait, I don't.

    Panic over. I agree with you that there are not great alternatives unfortunately. Why couldn't the ones in gov stand up to the lobby groups? Why did it take 10 months to introduce airport checks. We are supposed to be a rich country. The fact hospital care is now emergency only and our schools cannot open is an abject failure however you look at it.

    Are there any other countries with our proportional number of cases who have a healthsystem thats doing any better than ours?


  • #3653
    GreeBo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,507 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    Deleted User wrote: »
    “Sometime after Easter”? So 2022 then. Or perhaps he meant Easter 2022....

    Seriously though, I think there is so much overpromising going on

    (I hope I am wrong)

    - When will Ireland be vaccinated?
    o 80% by the end of the year.
    - What!?!?! THats so slow, yiz are all crap, have you seen Israel?
    o Ok we will have it done around Easter
    - WHat?"?" Thats so fast, yiz are lying, have you seen Israel?


  • #3654
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 8,647 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    https://www.independent.ie/news/ireland-records-highest-covid-19-infection-rate-in-the-world-over-past-seven-days-39954862.html


    They said it was only a flu.....


  • #3655
    Widescreen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,122 ✭✭✭Widescreen


    Datacore wrote: »
    Well it would reduce this to a 2 or 3 week disruption instead of a long, dragged out mess.

    What’s really worrying me is that we don’t know that a gentle level of restrictions, with probably poor buy in and little enforcement, will actually achieve anything. The level of community infection seems to be astronomically high.

    It’s very possible that we will find, without tighter measures, that it just drags on for months.

    We certainly don’t have the stomach either at government or public level to do this. I think you can pin the lack of contingencies on the government, but the social attitudes are reflected by it.

    Also if you think I’m proposing that any of the opposition parties would be any better, you must be kidding yourself. All of our political parties are reflecting a softly, softly type attitude, which is fine and probably very accurately representing the public, but we need to have a proper discussion about short term vs medium and long term.

    There’s a continuous reference here to a false dichotomy - that there’s a choice between not controlling covid or having a flourishing economy. That’s the same argument that has killed the U.K. response and it’s why the US is basically a COVID Petri dish.

    If you don’t manage the covid numbers, you’ll continue to cause huge economic damage. There wasn’t a tourism sector to save. Nobody was travelling here other than a bunch of Irish people returning (with viruses) at Xmas.

    The hospitality sector and many other aspects of retail and face to face business cannot operate in a context of high community infection levels. Education is extremely disrupted for the same reasons.

    If we can’t get our heads around the fact that this zero sum equation putting control of COVID on one side and the economy on the other is a false and totally inaccurate representation, we are just going to continue to walk into a brick wall over and over and over.

    The economy and the normal functioning of society are curtailed BY COVID not by the measures to try to contain it.

    Yep, it's obvious the measures in place will take months to work or may never work fully. The 2k limit is needed and only really ESSENTIAL places should open, obviously, not car washes, diy stores(should be emergency only), phone shops, and others that I haven't got time to list. "Essential" business such as computer hardware/software should close their manufacturing sections for 2-3 weeks. It is that type of lockdown that is needed, in fairness our gov have to wake up and realise this is the same virus, that ripped through Italy, Spain, UK, USA etc and is not a special lightweight Irish version.

    I think Leo said at the start this virus does not know boundaries. If that is the case why did his successor think it knew it was Christmas.


  • #3656
    GreeBo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,507 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    seamus wrote: »
    Looking for any excuse to vote against the government out of personal frustration is the democratic version of self-harming.

    its what gets you The Donald...that alone should be enough to warn anyone off


  • #3657
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    The_Brood wrote: »
    You would think that the bare minimum the government would guarantee in a mass stay at home shutdown is that people receive packages they order on time, or at least within a reasonable timeframe.

    Whatever is causing this right now, brexit, covid etc is doing the opposite, massive delays on all parcels from everywhere it seems.

    Is there not even one drop of responsibility from anyone we are allowed to ask?

    Here's why!
    https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0111/1188962-an-post-says-christmas-mail-backlog-continues/


  • #3658
    Miike
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,021 ✭✭✭Miike


    Deleted User wrote: »
    https://www.independent.ie/news/ireland-records-highest-covid-19-infection-rate-in-the-world-over-past-seven-days-39954862.html


    They said it was only a flu.....

    On boards they said it was a "flue" :pac:


  • #3659
    Mitch Connor
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 48,143 ✭✭✭✭Mitch Connor


    The_Brood wrote: »
    You would think that the bare minimum the government would guarantee in a mass stay at home shutdown is that people receive packages they order on time, or at least within a reasonable timeframe.

    Whatever is causing this right now, brexit, covid etc is doing the opposite, massive delays on all parcels from everywhere it seems.

    Is there not even one drop of responsibility from anyone we are allowed to ask?

    i wouldn't think postal deliveries fall under 'bare minimum' the goverment should be looking at within a lockdown. No.


  • #3660
    statesaver
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,084 ✭✭✭statesaver


    GreeBo wrote: »
    its what gets you The Donald...that alone should be enough to warn anyone off

    It's what will get us Sinn Fein, a more frightening prospect.


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  • #3661
    statesaver
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,084 ✭✭✭statesaver


    Miike wrote: »
    On boards they said it was a "flue" :pac:

    Should of closed the airports.


This discussion has been closed.
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