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Covid 19 Part XXXI-187,554 ROI (2,970 deaths) 100,319 NI (1,730 deaths)(24/01)Read OP

1…9192949697…333

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  • #2792
    MerlinSouthDub
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,627 ✭✭✭MerlinSouthDub


    Pinch Flat wrote: »
    Did I hear around 13th Jan predicted for peak? Would expect death rate to keep climbing after that given the lag between hospital admissions and those who are unlucky ending intubated and don't make it. Some scary numbers for the rest of january and into early February I'd imagine.

    We have already peaked on case numbers, no question about it now. But it will be 10 days at least before hospital numbers start falling, which is what really matter at this stage


  • #2793
    BringBackMick
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,100 ✭✭✭BringBackMick


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Can someone explain to me please: We were hoping for vaccines to arrive to take us out of this Covid misery. Now they are here. Yes the roll out has been slow but I firmly believe when Astra Zeneca and Moderna appear they will ramp it up. All nursing home residents and staff will be vaccinated. All staff in hospitals will be vaccinated. The process will move on to the next most vulnerable groups in society.

    Those we are trying to protect will be protected. Eventually the rest of us will be as well. While we may need regular vaccinations such as we have with the flu I still can't for the life of me understand some points of view on here.
    Why should we attempt zero covid now? Why is there still talk of rolling lockdowns? Why can't restrictions be eased when the most at risk are vaccinated?

    I'm not an epidemiologist or a statistician or have first hand experience of working in a Covid ward but I know many intelligent people who have the same questions as what I posted above.
    The issue is whilst death rate is lower, COVID can still incapacitate healthy people and it can run wild through community unchecked, so a large portion of people would be sick, off work and a portion requiring hospitalisation.

    covid cant be allowed let rip, even through the healthy under 50s, so we need 70%+ population vaxed before level 1 measures


  • #2794
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    Wombatman wrote: »
    Don't think those international reports are taking into account the backlogs that make a nonsense of our daily case figures.

    Most countries don't have archaic reporting so it actually follows a curve each day. We have high low high low but it's the same curve and just serves to confuse the **** out of people.

    "We are doing good there now 2 days in a row it's decreasing"
    day 3
    "Jaysus how did that happen we need to close the border now."


  • #2795
    LLMMLL
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,593 ✭✭✭LLMMLL


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    Can someone explain to me please: We were hoping for vaccines to arrive to take us out of this Covid misery. Now they are here. Yes the roll out has been slow but I firmly believe when Astra Zeneca and Moderna appear they will ramp it up. All nursing home residents and staff will be vaccinated. All staff in hospitals will be vaccinated. The process will move on to the next most vulnerable groups in society.

    Those we are trying to protect will be protected. Eventually the rest of us will be as well. While we may need regular vaccinations such as we have with the flu I still can't for the life of me understand some points of view on here.
    Why should we attempt zero covid now? Why is there still talk of rolling lockdowns? Why can't restrictions be eased when the most at risk are vaccinated?

    I'm not an epidemiologist or a statistician or have first hand experience of working in a Covid ward but I know many intelligent people who have the same questions as what I posted above.

    Don't think anyone can predict what's going to happen in 3 months. Maybe there will be more lockdowns. Maybe there won't.

    If people are still being admitted to ICU in big numbers then that will be a major issue. Doubt we can definitively say when ICU admissions will fall if we abandoned lockdowns and only a percentage of the population is vaccinated.

    I also think virus mutations are more likely if it's allowed to run rampant.


  • #2796
    mandrake04
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,435 ✭✭✭mandrake04


    DebDynamite wrote: »
    Great to hear Mandrake. That sounds like the dream at the moment. Enjoy it!

    Do you know how many cases/percentage of overall cases were caught in quarantine from overseas arrivals? I would be interesting to know how how many cases were caught and were prevented from going on to spread throughout the whole country?

    Thanks

    6262 altogether, I think there’s been 105,000 travellers quarantined. They are reducing the overseas intake by 50% for a month while they tighten the quarantine process further and to reduce more risk of the UK/SA strains.

    538887.png

    The quarantine and hotel staff are the first to be vaccinated next month so hopefully if we can keep a lid on it to then should be laughing.


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  • #2797
    SpacialNeeds
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 203 ✭✭SpacialNeeds


    Vincent Browne (@vincentbrowne) Tweeted:
    Of the 5m pop about 3.5m will want to be vaccinated. Half of these will need 2 doses. So we need 5.25m vaccines. If we were to get rid of COVID in 2021 we need to vaccinate 100,000 a week. That seems no chance. Probably 2 years and many lockdowns and many deaths. Unless ... https://twitter.com/vincentbrowne/status/1347602570550849538?s=20

    Seeing as my own opinion on the vaccine was deleted from the thread.


  • #2798
    bilston
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,009 ✭✭✭✭bilston


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Can someone explain to me please: We were hoping for vaccines to arrive to take us out of this Covid misery. Now they are here. Yes the roll out has been slow but I firmly believe when Astra Zeneca and Moderna appear they will ramp it up. All nursing home residents and staff will be vaccinated. All staff in hospitals will be vaccinated. The process will move on to the next most vulnerable groups in society.

    Those we are trying to protect will be protected. Eventually the rest of us will be as well. While we may need regular vaccinations such as we have with the flu I still can't for the life of me understand some points of view on here.
    Why should we attempt zero covid now? Why is there still talk of rolling lockdowns? Why can't restrictions be eased when the most at risk are vaccinated?

    I'm not an epidemiologist or a statistician or have first hand experience of working in a Covid ward but I know many intelligent people who have the same questions as what I posted above.

    Hospital numbers will probably dictate the easing of restrictions not the number of people vaccinated.

    Getting the over 80s protected will significantly reduce the death rate but may not have as big an impact on hospital pressures because of the new variant which will likely offset any reduction in hopsital admissions in the over 80s.


  • #2799
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Can someone explain to me please: We were hoping for vaccines to arrive to take us out of this Covid misery. Now they are here. Yes the roll out has been slow but I firmly believe when Astra Zeneca and Moderna appear they will ramp it up. All nursing home residents and staff will be vaccinated. All staff in hospitals will be vaccinated. The process will move on to the next most vulnerable groups in society.

    Those we are trying to protect will be protected. Eventually the rest of us will be as well. While we may need regular vaccinations such as we have with the flu I still can't for the life of me understand some points of view on here.
    Why should we attempt zero covid now? Why is there still talk of rolling lockdowns? Why can't restrictions be eased when the most at risk are vaccinated?

    I'm not an epidemiologist or a statistician or have first hand experience of working in a Covid ward but I know many intelligent people who have the same questions as what I posted above.

    Groups 1-4 would probably be a little above the 1m Donnelly has mentioned. If we're doing really well they will be done by the end of March but probably well into April. That's only about 25% of the adult population and they reckon we need to get to 60% and above that. There will still be cases about right into the summer so we can't let up on the public health measures.


  • #2800
    Derek Zoolander
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 434 ✭✭Derek Zoolander


    mandrake04 wrote: »
    Thanks

    6262 altogether, I think there’s been 105,000 travellers quarantined. They are reducing the overseas intake by 50% for a month while they tighten the quarantine process further and to reduce more risk of the UK/SA strains.

    538887.png

    The quarantine and hotel staff are the first to be vaccinated next month so hopefully if we can keep a lid on it to then should be laughing.

    What’s the mid to long term strategy - will there still be a cap on amount of citizens allowed to return? Will Australia ever let tourists back in?


  • #2801
    CIARAN_BOYLE
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,599 ✭✭✭✭CIARAN_BOYLE


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Can someone explain to me please: We were hoping for vaccines to arrive to take us out of this Covid misery. Now they are here. Yes the roll out has been slow but I firmly believe when Astra Zeneca and Moderna appear they will ramp it up. All nursing home residents and staff will be vaccinated. All staff in hospitals will be vaccinated. The process will move on to the next most vulnerable groups in society.

    Those we are trying to protect will be protected. Eventually the rest of us will be as well. While we may need regular vaccinations such as we have with the flu I still can't for the life of me understand some points of view on here.
    Why should we attempt zero covid now? Why is there still talk of rolling lockdowns? Why can't restrictions be eased when the most at risk are vaccinated?

    I'm not an epidemiologist or a statistician or have first hand experience of working in a Covid ward but I know many intelligent people who have the same questions as what I posted above.
    10,000 non vulnerable cases a day is still enough to break the hospital system I say.

    To be honest we might have troubles from people who are vaccinated acting as asymptomatic spreaders (as we don't know the effect of the vaccine on spread).

    Measures will have to be kept for a while.


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  • #2802
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    BringBackMick wrote: »
    The issue is whilst death rate is lower, COVID can still incapacitate healthy people and it can run wild through community unchecked, so a large portion of people would be sick, off work and a portion requiring hospitalisation.

    covid cant be allowed let rip, even through the healthy under 50s, so we need 70%+ population vaxed before level 1 measures

    I agree. I just got the feeling that even with 70% there were those thinking lockdowns would continue. The zero Covid idea for example, why would we pursue it if we get enough people vaccinated.


  • #2803
    Polar101
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,041 ✭✭✭Polar101


    MerlinSouthDub wrote: »
    We have already peaked on case numbers, no question about it now. But it will be 10 days at least before hospital numbers start falling, which is what really matter at this stage

    I think we're a bit further away from seeing hospital numbers fall.

    10 days ago we had 1600 cases, now we have 3-5 times that number. Numbers would have to come down a lot before hospital numbers fall too.


  • #2804
    CIARAN_BOYLE
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,599 ✭✭✭✭CIARAN_BOYLE


    MerlinSouthDub wrote: »
    We have already peaked on case numbers, no question about it now. But it will be 10 days at least before hospital numbers start falling, which is what really matter at this stage

    Today's admissions probably relate to 7 days ago's cases and 14 days ago's infections. Average stay is about 10 days. So discharges today relate to 17 days ago's cases and 24 days ago's infections.

    We can't get cases low enough soon for admissions soon enough for cases to peak in 10 days imo.

    It could be a a lot nearer the end of the month or even early February before hospital numbers peak.


  • #2805
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    SpacialNeeds wrote: »
    Vincent Browne (@vincentbrowne) Tweeted:
    Of the 5m pop about 3.5m will want to be vaccinated. Half of these will need 2 doses. So we need 5.25m vaccines. If we were to get rid of COVID in 2021 we need to vaccinate 100,000 a week. That seems no chance. Probably 2 years and many lockdowns and many deaths. Unless ... https://twitter.com/vincentbrowne/status/1347602570550849538?s=20

    Seeing as my own opinion on the vaccine was deleted from the thread.
    That's 87.5% of the adult population, which we probably won't get to anyway. The herd immunity targets are much lower than that. 60% is 2.4m and 70% is 2.8m and it'll be somewhere in that range.


  • #2806
    robfowler78
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 933 ✭✭✭robfowler78


    Renjit wrote: »
    That is exactly the point. Jobs should be the priority. But the way cases have escalated say otherwise. If only people were more sensible we could be with lower level of lockdown and in stable state with most of the jobs still in place. You can blame new virus all you want.

    Well infairness if we didn’t have a new virus in Covid I don’t think we would need any of the restrictions.. As I said easy to blame people but the majority are doing as required otherwise we would have 60,000 case growing as was predicted in April we never have come close to that and never will.

    Most people have given up school, jobs, families , socialising even Xmas etc and to make that change of behaviour for 9 months is commendable. Yes there are a number of people who act the fool but that’s were enforcement should come in and that fault lies on the government as does track and trace and the airport travel so they also have done well in some areas and terrible in others just like the people have.


  • #2807
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    TonyMaloney wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/NaomiOhReally/status/1347870067829190656?s=19

    About 3 days later than when we did it here. muy schortchio ........Irlanda es muy ****ed

    From Portugal......
    Covid-19: Ireland closes schools by the end of the month and prepares third confinement


    https://twitter.com/Lusa_noticias/status/1346878643541315584?s=20


  • #2808
    hotmail.com
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,384 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    Parks packed today in Dublin.


  • #2809
    CalamariFritti
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,309 ✭✭✭CalamariFritti


    hotmail.com wrote: »
    Parks packed today in Dublin.

    So?


  • #2810
    Deeper Blue
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,420 ✭✭✭Deeper Blue


    FFVII wrote: »
    https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25696577

    Vaccines are not looking good against variants.

    Just aswell we cant manage to roll it out.

    So the comment section on a website called "Hacker News" is a source now is it? Cop on


  • #2811
    MerlinSouthDub
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,627 ✭✭✭MerlinSouthDub


    hotmail.com wrote: »
    Parks packed today in Dublin.

    Great, better to have people out and about getting some fresh air and exercise.


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  • #2812
    Arghus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,193 ✭✭✭✭Arghus


    anplaya27 wrote: »
    Not only in that age set. Its difficult for everyone. But we have to persevere.

    I'm profoundly deaf and an Irish Sign Language user. Lipreading itself very very hard ( what people don't realise about this is if you've never heard the language you're expected to lipread in first place this makes it impossible to do. You are trying to figure it out and give an appropriate answer etc. The intense type of concentration used to try and do this is extremely tiring for Deaf people) and now with the wearing of masks this makes this type of guesswork communication nonexistent.

    I would argue I can probably cope better than most hearing people though as Deaf people are used to isolation in the mainstream community anyway. However , it's also a fact that Deaf people are more likely to suffer from mental health issues and to take their own lives than hearing people are. Yet, there is little to no supports in place for us in this country.

    One positive for us is our language is more mainstream now due to being recognised as a native language of Ireland in 2017 and we can access information in ISL, for example the covid news briefings on rte etc.

    Great Post.

    I read so much thrash on here that I'm increasingly not bothered with spending time here, but it's always good to get insight into someone's genuine life experience. Makes me feel that boards isn't a total lost cause.


  • #2813
    DebDynamite
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,727 ✭✭✭DebDynamite


    mandrake04 wrote: »
    Thanks

    6262 altogether, I think there’s been 105,000 travellers quarantined. They are reducing the overseas intake by 50% for a month while they tighten the quarantine process further and to reduce more risk of the UK/SA strains.

    538887.png

    The quarantine and hotel staff are the first to be vaccinated next month so hopefully if we can keep a lid on it to then should be laughing.

    Thanks Mandrake. So nearly 6% of people entering the country were positive. Imagine how much more they could’ve gone on to infect if they were just allowed free reign once they entered the country.

    No wonder we’re in the mess we are when we have people arriving in and flying out as many times as they wish with zero enforced restrictions. We don’t even have something so basic as temperature checks at the airport.

    Says it all really when quarantine and hotel staff are your frontline workers over there and will be first in line to be vaccinated. It tells you exactly where the majority of cases are coming from.


  • #2814
    Endintheclowns
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 138 ✭✭Endintheclowns


    Still almost 5000 swabs. Christ almighty


  • #2815
    hotmail.com
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,384 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    Christmas only ended last Sunday for a lot of people.


  • #2816
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    Deleted User wrote: »
    I agree. I just got the feeling that even with 70% there were those thinking lockdowns would continue. The zero Covid idea for example, why would we pursue it if we get enough people vaccinated.

    There's still a lot of unknowns and it looks like this virus is able to freely move between mammals. The risk is that it moves faster than the vaccines can adapt. The most recent adaptation found in UK and SA (SA has two additional ones) may not be enough to evade the vaccine but that doesn't mean others won't.

    It hasn't reduced in virulence either. So it's a bit risky to let it run rampant. Look at all the animals in the pic below.


    538892.jpeg


  • #2817
    RandomViewer
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,191 ✭✭✭RandomViewer


    Balagan1 wrote: »
    It's a horrible time for everyone and some handling it better than others. Good article in Irish Times today on some issues arising for younger people. https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/health-family/during-lockdown-my-11-year-old-was-hospitalised-with-an-eating-disorder-1.4442809

    Just try talking to her. Is she spending the nights watching Netflix etc., and is just tired during the day? Social media can be a great attraction but a bit of a very mixed blessing but they can spend hours on it. Also, check if she's eating decent food when she is up after dark. You might have to leave supplies in the fridge, leftovers etc. Maybe, float the idea that she might get involved in cooking a bit for the household some days. Maybe bring her in some meals during the day. You often have to go way more than halfway to meet them. But they're worth it!

    Thanks, she's doing everything you said, 3 series of Modern Family this week


  • #2818
    SleetAndSnow
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,754 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    4842 cases
    9 deaths
    https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1347954000025579521?s=21


  • #2819
    mandrake04
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,435 ✭✭✭mandrake04


    Derek Zoolander wrote: »
    What’s the mid to long term strategy - will there still be a cap on amount of citizens allowed to return? Will Australia ever let tourists back in?

    I would say providing the same vaccines that Ireland and the rest of the world are hoping to save them work, the majority of Australians (bar children) will be vaccinated by September so a lot of normality should return by then.

    In the meantime returning citizens that have been vaccinated and probably tourists that have been vaccinated will probably have no problem in 2nd half of the year. Qantas are now taking bookings from June.

    I would say there will probably still be quarantine for the vaccinated at the start for a period but if confidence grows as above 2nd half looks good.


  • #2820
    Tork
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Tork


    MerlinSouthDub wrote: »
    Great, better to have people out and about getting some fresh air and exercise.

    It's great to see people out and about IF they still keep to the precautions that we've been hearing over and over again since March. Fresh air alone isn't going to stop the spread of the virus if people insist on standing too close to each other or start chatting at close proximity with their friends.


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  • #2821
    StevenToast
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,049 ✭✭✭StevenToast


    I see they are taking weekends off again....sure its not like theres an emergency going on

    "Don't piss down my back and tell me it's raining." - Fletcher



This discussion has been closed.
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