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Covid 19 Part XXXI-187,554 ROI (2,970 deaths) 100,319 NI (1,730 deaths)(24/01)Read OP

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  • #2132
    Goldengirl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,984 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    kilkenny31 wrote: »
    Given then fact that there was an extra 50 people in ICU compared to now id image its safe to say there were probably 3000-4000 cases at the peak

    At the rate we are going we will have that next week :(


  • #2133
    Endintheclowns
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 138 ✭✭Endintheclowns


    kilkenny31 wrote: »
    I'm not so sure. How can you say this lockdown is half arse. Come tonight construction etc will be finished. I've seen this on the forum everytime, people being very negative. The government restrictions have worked in the past they will work now. We won't be as bad as the UK.

    There is zero enforcement. As we seen at Xmas people only care about themselves and not the greater cause so i expect this lockdown to not have the same effect as March/April with the added factor of it not being as strict. This is now a waiting game to see how fast we can vaccinate. I'm hopeful we'll see us opening up by mid March if the supply comes through and the programme runs without many hitches but this is the HSE we are talking about here.

    I'm all for optimism but it can also be dangerous as people think "ah sure we through the worst of it now so feck it".


  • #2134
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    glasso wrote: »
    yes certainly assuming the vaccines give lasting immunity should see the country emerge out of the current situation

    Ireland like the other EU states are in the EU procurement system - some good news today with more Pfizer vaccines (another 300m procured)

    If AstraZenecca is approved soon that will improve the picture further

    Moderna unlikely to have much of an impact in the EU

    But will not begin to become available till second quarter of the year i.e., after March.

    https://www.politico.eu/article/commission-purchases-300m-more-doses-of-biontech-pfizer-coronavirus-vaccine/


  • #2135
    Gruffalux
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,023 ✭✭✭Gruffalux


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    Trinity professor Liam Townsend on radio talking about long covid , first study into effects of long covid. Approximately 2% have symptoms lasting more than 3 months, not necessarily dictated by or related to severity of original illness. Found very few examples of lung scarring on X rays so they don't think covid causes any irreversible damage to organs long term .
    Kings college UK to soon release study of millions of covid patients tracked for months.

    I will be interested to read that study as it sounds good.
    The overall piece sounded encouraging so I googled Liam Townsend. This morning he tweeted this about a small Trinity College study.
    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/long-covid-can-affect-people-even-with-mild-initial-symptoms-study-1.4452710

    The point seems to be that the 'long covid' is not related to obvious lung damage but there may be another mechanism.
    https://www.atsjournals.org/doi/abs/10.1513/AnnalsATS.202009-1175OC


  • #2136
    pc7
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 14,279 Mod ✭✭✭✭pc7


    Balagan1 wrote: »
    But will not begin to become available till second quarter of the year i.e., after March.

    https://www.politico.eu/article/commission-purchases-300m-more-doses-of-biontech-pfizer-coronavirus-vaccine/

    That may give hse time to get house in order and get it out as soon as arrives, have people prebooked into get it


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  • #2137
    froog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,784 ✭✭✭froog


    tentatively looks liked we've peaked. too late to stop the pressure on the hospitals though.


  • #2138
    Goldengirl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,984 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »
    Surely they are doing a lot better at pre icu therapeutic intervention now so that people don't need icu as much.

    So if one in a hundred cases needed icu then one in five hundred might need icu now.

    Im not sure what they are doing therapeutically but surely they have learned something by now.

    Yes. Things have improved .
    Not so much avoiding ICU as avoiding ventilation as much as possible . Steroids , combinations of medications, and support measures to avoid complications .
    But it's a bvgger to get rid of .


  • #2139
    titan18
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,052 ✭✭✭✭titan18


    pc7 wrote: »
    They may give hse time to get house in order and get it out as soon as arrives, have people prebooked into get it

    They didn't do that first time, they won't do that this time.


  • #2140
    Russman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,978 ✭✭✭Russman


    wadacrack wrote: »
    We cant open up with 300 cases again I'm afraid with the new variant. The R0 needs to be below 0.7. This is going to take a while. With what is likely to unfold in the next few weeks ,Id expect much more caution. None of us want this but we need to make logical decisions
    Goldengirl wrote: »
    Illness in the high numbers is realising now in hospital admissions and will continue for the next few weeks as those infected infected others.
    Then ICU admissions lag a few days behind before increasing but stay longer in ICU .
    These numbers are the ones which will determine how we open up and I and everyone I know are preparing ourselves for a long haul over the next month to six weeks maybe .
    No way the country should allow the risk of this happening AGAIN , which it will if we open up too soon , and vaccines being rolled out .
    Based on current numbers I am amazed that anyone is discussing " opening up" !
    The lower numbers of cases were predicted because despite high numbers if swabs , only symptomatic are now being tested and not close contacts.
    If we are getting figures of 6500 it is very likely that the numbers are at least 2 to 3 times that .
    I know most people know that and it is that they are trying to see some positivity in all this .
    Let's just get over this few weeks first .

    Oh I agree completely, nobody wants to risk a repeat of the current situation. I’m hoping that people’s expectations are managed accordingly and we get no crazy off message statements from random TDs/Ministers.


  • #2141
    hmmm
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,203 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    Drumpot wrote: »
    Is there any rational argument on why our numbers will decline faster then they didnt during Oct - Dec
    If it wasn't for the new strain I'd be expecting a pretty quick decline. Christmas day was a huge super-spread event, and in many cases entire extended families at the dinner table were getting infected. Back in September/October it was more of a slow burn rise, and it took time for entire families to get infected. The virus will burn itself out when it runs out of people to infect.


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  • #2142
    Always_Running
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭Always_Running


    Goldengirl wrote: »
    I think we are back to testing as per April now for the last week .

    174,126 tests carried out in the last 7 days. In comparison and 1 weekly example. (Monday 20 - Monday 27 April 2020) - 41,470 tests was carried out.


  • #2143
    pc7
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 14,279 Mod ✭✭✭✭pc7


    titan18 wrote: »
    They didn't do that first time, they won't do that this time.

    I can’t even go there, need to stay positive


  • #2144
    Goldengirl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,984 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    wadacrack wrote: »
    We cant open up with 300 cases again I'm afraid with the new variant. The R0 needs to be below 0.7. This is going to take a while. With what is likely to unfold in the next few weeks ,Id expect much more caution. None of us want this but we need to make logical decisions

    Getting the RO down with this new variant will be more difficult going by UK , but if people take this lockdown seriously , it might just be possible .
    I don't think the UK tier 4 was enough for it , not sure if they are getting to grips with it even now.


  • #2145
    Goldengirl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,984 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    igCorcaigh wrote: »
    Any genomic sequencing on these cases?

    Those that are getting sick faster yes, but only this last week in my experience .


  • #2146
    manofwisdom
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,119 ✭✭✭manofwisdom


    wadacrack wrote: »
    We cant open up with 300 cases again I'm afraid with the new variant. The R0 needs to be below 0.7. This is going to take a while. With what is likely to unfold in the next few weeks ,Id expect much more caution. None of us want this but we need to make logical decisions

    I believe we can, especially if the majority of people in nursing/care homes and those with underling conditions are vaccinated.

    Too much is made of this new variant in the media when the main issue was too much mixing and people letting their guards downs over the period of Christmas and New Year.


  • #2147
    Goldengirl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,984 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    screamer wrote: »
    I also think we’re going to see plenty of COVID circulation till April when we come out of flu season- conditions that are equally perfect for COVID to thrive in.
    I’ve said this as far back as last summer, and I am honestly shocked when I hear things like the reason for the pup payment reduction which was set to be reduced feb 1st is that by then they expected COVID to be under control and that the economy could be reopened in a sustained way, like who is advising these politicians????? They have no clue hence I have no confidence.

    No they have no clue..
    PUP will be extended as long as lockdown though .


  • #2148
    bikeman1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭bikeman1


    The UK is coming out of the same Christmas period as we did. They also had very wildly different tiers in places in different parts of the country right up to Christmas Eve with tier 2 having pubs open with a meal.

    Who forgets the mass exodus out of London when they were putting it into Tier 4? It’s also too soon to see the UK numbers come down following the holiday period.

    Also, in our second wave, we didn’t have a lockdown as such. Dublin was a busy as it could be given the restrictions.

    I have no doubt that these restrictions will bring down case numbers substantially in a weeks time. Sadly, the amount of deaths coming will really focus the public’s mind.


  • #2149
    NovemberWren
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 374 ✭✭NovemberWren


    At Waterford Regional Hospital (university) today for hours staff were queueing for the Vaccination.

    Moderna/Glaxo/Pfizer, all of these purvey the Vaccine. Might some manufacturers' vaccine differ from the others.
    who can be sure, about all the different 'batches'?
    by mistake even, some could be water and gloucose?

    Quite heartening though, to see it being administered in the Chapel of the hospital.


  • #2150
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 12,458 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    Goldengirl wrote: »
    Those that are getting sick faster yes, but only this last week in my experience .

    Thanks. Would be very interesting to hear the results.


  • #2151
    Goldengirl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,984 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    kilkenny31 wrote: »
    Yes but it works. It has worked. No point in hysteria. We are at the peak. Come next week the numbers will be signifantly lower then this week. Hospital numbers will soon start to fall back. The damage was done in December. We will pay for it the first half of January.

    His point was true and rational . Not hysterical .
    Your point is as usual inaccurate and down playing .
    What's the opposite of hysteria ? Complacent ?


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  • #2152
    blade1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,773 ✭✭✭✭blade1


    Goldengirl wrote: »
    What's the opposite of hysteria ? Complacent ?

    Nonchalance I suppose.


  • #2153
    the corpo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,813 ✭✭✭the corpo


    My sister-in-law lives in Lewisham in London, says compliance with mask wearing and social distancing is really minimal, at best 50% of people in a supermarket might be wearing a mask.

    Part of it is the 'Keep Calm and Carry On' mentality really, head down, let's get through this as normal...

    Very sobering seeing the clip from Newsnight last night, visualising what the 78,000 UK dead might look like.

    https://twitter.com/AhirShah/status/1347337322229075968?s=20


  • #2154
    frank8211
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 306 ✭✭frank8211


    Drumpot wrote: »
    Is there any rational argument on why our numbers will decline faster then they didnt during Oct - Dec (roughly 80% in 6 Weeks). If people say "schools closed", I would ask why the Authorities were saying they werent bad for spread if they would have such a massive impact on the spread. But even at that, how much does the supposed more contageous element and the time of year (worst period in terms of transmission) counter some of that?

    To get down to 300 from even a peak of 6000 is looking for a 95% reduction from Peak. Can we do that in 8 weeks ?

    I said it before but I would be pleasantly surprised if we are below 300 by the start of April unless there is some quick, dramatic shift in how our numbers decline for some reason.

    How that might play out with schools and other measures I dont know. I guess the state of our hospitals and health system by the end of Feb may play a massive role in that question.

    Schools ARE closed now. They were open in Oct Dec and they had lots of cases, despite the myth that's peddled


  • #2155
    Goldengirl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,984 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    mohawk wrote: »
    It’s not just schools closed it’s also construction.

    There are numerous reasons why there could be a difference in the rate of decline in this wave compared to the last.
    Oct- Dec I don’t think many were properly sticking to restrictions such as household visits. This time the cases are so high that people do seem to be stopping household visits. Also people I know working in essential jobs and can’t work from home are having their shifts rearranged so that there is as few people onsite at a time as possible. So there are employers taking this wave seriously that didn’t take the last wave as serious.

    Numbers aren't declining!
    No offence Mohawk .
    Testing is reduced for the last week to symptomatic cases only,and not close contacts .
    Can people not understand that this is obviously going to result in reduced numbers , but the real numbers are likely 3 times higher ?


  • #2156
    GeorgeBailey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,187 ✭✭✭GeorgeBailey


    wadacrack wrote: »
    We cant open up with 300 cases again I'm afraid with the new variant. The R0 needs to be below 0.7. This is going to take a while. With what is likely to unfold in the next few weeks ,Id expect much more caution. None of us want this but we need to make logical decisions

    I don't think we'll open with 300 cases either but I do think there's a pretty good chance schools (especially the lesser affected primary schools) would re-open at that level.


  • #2157
    Goldengirl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,984 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    Russman wrote: »
    Oh I agree completely, nobody wants to risk a repeat of the current situation. I’m hoping that people’s expectations are managed accordingly and we get no crazy off message statements from random TDs/Ministers.

    Yes . All of them , including that prat Donnelly , should be told to zip it for the foreseeable .


  • #2158
    Queried
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 241 ✭✭Queried


    GeorgeBailey wrote: »
    I don't think we'll open with 300 cases either but I do think there's a pretty good chance schools (especially the lesser affected primary schools) would re-open at that level.

    To be honest, I reckon the moment we get below 1000 cases schools will reopen.


  • #2159
    Gruffalux
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,023 ✭✭✭Gruffalux


    Goldengirl wrote: »
    Numbers aren't declining!
    Testing is reduced for the last week to symptomatic cases only,and not close contacts .
    Can people not understand that this is obviously going to result in reduced numbers , but the real numbers are likely 3 times higher ?

    If that is so the true rate of infection will not be concealed - it will show itself in hospital stats over the next several weeks.


  • #2160
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    wadacrack wrote: »
    We cant open up with 300 cases again I'm afraid with the new variant. The R0 needs to be below 0.7. This is going to take a while. With what is likely to unfold in the next few weeks ,Id expect much more caution. None of us want this but we need to make logical decisions

    We have to IMO. What will be different next year or the year after or in 10 years? Vaccine immunity does not last forever. Periodic shots will be required, possibly every year. And they won’t be given to every member of the population year on year. It will be the elderly and vulnerable who get them. Much like today’s flu jabs. We all know that COVID isn’t going anywhere. So do we do this lockdown dance forever? No, we vaccinate the vulnerable and have to get on with life. So why not start that this year, because that approach is an inevitability. Even NZ and AUS will have to ditch their zero COVID approach eventually, unless they plan to vaccinate their entire population every year, and ensure all visitors are vaccinated

    Vaccinations do not make this go away in perpetuity


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  • #2161
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 18,962 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    What will the plan be when the majority of people who are most likely to be hospitalised, subset to ICU and further subset who will die have been vaccinated?

    HSE is saying end February for covering over 65's in long-term care facilities

    then the other groups https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/39038-provisional-vaccine-allocation-groups

    once they get to group 5 - people aged 65 to 69 (and allow for time for vaccine to build antibodies) will it be a case of well nobody is likely to die now, just open everything up?


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