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Covid 19 Part XXXI-187,554 ROI (2,970 deaths) 100,319 NI (1,730 deaths)(24/01)Read OP

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  • #1922
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 12,461 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    Icyseanfitz wrote: »
    So they have made 9k of a backlog in positive swabs disappear somehow?

    Yeah, what happens?


  • #1923
    Gruffalux
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,023 ✭✭✭Gruffalux


    Polar101 wrote: »
    There's an interesting story in the Irish Times about contact tracing. Dr. Stephanie O'Keeffe (who is an HSE director) says they have 800 staff, plus 100 additional people from the Defense Forces and 100 from civil service doing the tracing calls - on Dec 30th they made 11,600 calls. After that they changed the system so that instead of making 3 calls, they're only making 1 in which they inform the person of a positive result, give medical advice and ask details of close contacts. And then they text the close contacts telling them to isolate, but not to seek tests unless they have symptoms.

    So essentially she is saying that contact tracing has NOT collapsed.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/covid-19-the-inside-story-of-how-the-contact-tracing-system-averted-a-christmas-collapse-1.4452671

    Something I wonder about the 'no tests but just isolate if close contact' policy - how are people supposed to get social support payments for the time of isolation if they have no proof they are positive? That would be two weeks (possibly more) no pay if their employer has no sick pay policy, which is fairly common. With a test you could claim sickness benefit if you have to isolate.
    Also, if they were one of the unlucky ones who indeed had Covid and even worse got a longer sickness from it they might have passed the time of having sufficient virus for the purpose of PCR testing, thus never get a positive result, and that might compromise say a disability claim.
    Also the no test for close contacts is an abandonment of the test, trace, isolate best practice policy - the testing has to be done to close contacts in that policy or else it is not succeeding in its primary objective of containment.


  • #1924
    CIARAN_BOYLE
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,599 ✭✭✭✭CIARAN_BOYLE


    Gruffalux wrote: »
    Also the no test for close contacts is an abandonment of the test, trace, isolate best practice policy - the testing has to be done to close contacts in that policy or else it is not succeeding in its primary objective of containment.

    Of course its an abandonment of test trace isolate.

    Im sure that tests for close contacts will come back before any relaxation of restrictions.

    Unfortunately with the way the numbers coming forward for tests are at the moment we can't just test all the contacts.


  • #1925
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    To those saying that hse is always under pressure every winter, that is true. But it's all relative. Look at the difference in the scale of the problem in the NHS. Different country but our cases per capita are higher so gives you an idea of the burden on ICU this virus is causing.

    It's massively different.

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1347200811303055364?s=20


  • #1926
    prunudo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,114 ✭✭✭prunudo


    CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »
    Of course its an abandonment of test trace isolate.

    Im sure that tests for close contacts will come back before any relaxation of restrictions.

    Unfortunately with the way the numbers coming forward for tests are at the moment we can't just test all the contacts.

    Are you still able to get a test if you have symptoms but no close contact?


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  • #1927
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    Pfizer vaccine works against the spike mutation in UK and SA variants thankfully/ Really good news.
    Study only looked at the one mutation not all of them that exist in the variant but very promising none the less.
    SA has two additional mutations in the RBD compared to UK one and not covered in this study.

    https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1347447626912854016?s=20


  • #1928
    Wesekn.
    Closed Accounts Posts: 120 ✭✭Wesekn.


    Psychedelic Hedgehog wrote: »
    It's not a good look for the Minister, and betrays her lack of experience. I don't think her position is tenable in such light, the flip flopping reminds me of a certain British PM.

    BJ?


  • #1929
    What Username Guidelines
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,139 ✭✭✭What Username Guidelines


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    Pfizer vaccine works against the variants thankfully/ Really good news.
    Study only looked at the one mutation not all of them that exist in the variant but very promising none the less.

    https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1347447626912854016?s=20

    I’m likely massively oversimplifying it, but don’t the mRNA vaccines work against the spike protein, a key part of the definition of a coronavirus, therefore any mutation that isn’t targeted by the vaccine doesn’t have a spike protein, and so is no longer a coronavirus?

    (Disclaimer: I’ve only been an epidemiologist/vaccine expert since late March 2020)


  • #1930
    GreeBo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,507 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    glasso wrote: »
    Israel paid 30 dollars per dose

    twice the price

    https://www.livemint.com/science/health/how-israel-was-able-to-give-covid-vaccine-to-15-of-its-population-in-2-weeks-11609927183734.html

    There are various reports that they paid over 60 dollars, they haven't been forthcoming with the real number.

    Oh, they are also into their third full lockdown as cases are over 6k per day and they are using up the vaccine faster than it is being shipped, so will be out of it unless they slow down/pause towards the end of Jan.
    Send they had assumed Pfizer could send it faster then Pfizer told them they could send it.

    Not great planning to run out of vaccines right at your numbers peak and are on track to hit over 40k/day without total lockdown, though it's probably the HSEsv fault


  • #1931
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    khalessi wrote: »
    Gps are doing consultations by phone as much as possible
    IMNO and IMO ably represented their members in the hunt for proper ppe in March and April last year and the hospitals have tried to make hospitals as safe as possile. The Fire Brigade has an amazing union and it very hard to be a garda at home. Nurses cant work from home, but teachers can there is an oprtion it may not be the best one but it is there and during a pandemic should be availed of.

    Teachers have been mentioning safety not just for themselves but for the students. Norma Foley said in week 51 I think that there 94 cases of covid in children in schools it was actually just over twice that.

    We are now dealing with a more virulent form.

    In the previous lockdown Stephen Donnelly and Leo Vradkar both said they would sort out childcare for HCW and ****ed it up, so this time around the schools were kept open for child minding necessities to quote Norma herself.
    That's really not the impression that comes across on this at all. For some it manifests as an almost daily whinge about the teachers' lot only. Whatever about the latest decision it's somewhat bizarre to see that while they will readily accept the daily HSPC numbers they imagine they are qualified enough to reject the HSE data on schools.


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  • #1932
    CIARAN_BOYLE
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,599 ✭✭✭✭CIARAN_BOYLE


    prunudo wrote: »
    Are you still able to get a test if you have symptoms but no close contact?

    Yes you can get a test at the moment if you are symptomatic.


  • #1933
    Mark1916
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 524 ✭✭✭Mark1916


    https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/eus-von-der-leyen-eu-has-secured-an-additional-300-million-pfizer-vaccine-doses-20210108

    EU secured another 300m of the Pfizer vaccine.


  • #1934
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    What Username Guidelines wrote: »
    I’m likely massively oversimplifying it, but don’t the mRNA vaccines work against the spike protein, a key part of the definition of a coronavirus, therefore any mutation that isn’t targeted by the vaccine doesn’t have a spike protein, and so is no longer a coronavirus?

    (Disclaimer: I’ve only been an epidemiologist/vaccine expert since late March 2020)

    Haha, everyone is in the same boat. Yeah that's right about the mRNA vaccines but there are multiple mutations in the spike protein in those variants. So this study looked at one of those which was the most worrying as it was in the receptor binding domain. The other mutations in theory should be less concerning but you never know. The SA variant has two additional mutations in the RBD compared to the UK one.
    What is a Receptor-Binding Domain (RBD)?: A receptor-binding domain (RBD) is a key part of a virus located on its 'spike' domain that allows it to dock to body receptors to gain entry into cells and lead to infection. These are also the primary targets in the prevention and treatment of viral infections, including SARS-CoV-2 – the virus that causes COVID-19.
    “Both variants share the N501Y mutation in the viral S gene which lies in the receptor binding domain (RBD) – where the virus binds to the host cell – and where vaccine-induced antibodies bind to the virus. But the South African variant has two more mutations – E484K and K417N – in this RBD region that are absent in the UK variant. These two additional mutations may interfere more with vaccine effectiveness in the South African variant than in the UK variant.

    https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-the-south-african-variant/
    Prof Francois Balloux, Professor of Computational Systems Biology and Director, UCL Genetics Institute, University College London, said:

    “The ‘South African variant’ carries a mutation in the spike protein called E484K, which is not present in the ‘UK strain’. The E484K mutation has been shown to reduce antibody recognition. As such, it helps the virus SARS-CoV-2 to bypass immune protection provided by prior infection or vaccination. It is not anticipated that this mutation is sufficient for the ‘South African’ variant to bypass the protection provided by current vaccines. It’s possible that new variants will affect the efficacy of the covid vaccines, but we shouldn’t make that assumption yet about the South African one.”


  • #1935
    wadacrack
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,172 ✭✭✭wadacrack


    1151 in hospital, 104 admissions last 24 hours.101 ICU, 18 admissions last 24 hour.


  • #1936
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    wadacrack wrote: »
    1151 in hospital, 104 admissions last 24 hours.101 ICU, 18 admissions last 24 hour.

    Showing no signs of slowing (yet)....:(

    538762.png


  • #1937
    Wesekn.
    Closed Accounts Posts: 120 ✭✭Wesekn.


    wadacrack wrote: »
    1151 in hospital, 104 admissions last 24 hours.101 ICU, 18 admissions last 24 hour.

    Small enough numbers really


  • #1938
    What Username Guidelines
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,139 ✭✭✭What Username Guidelines


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    Haha, everyone is in the same boat. Yeah that's right about the mRNA vaccines but there are multiple mutations in the spike protein in those variants. So this study looked at one of those which was the most worrying as it was in the receptor binding domain. The other mutations in theory should be less concerning but you never know. The SA variant has two additional mutations in the RBD compared to the UK one.

    https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-the-south-african-variant/

    Thanks for the explanation, appreciate it :)
    wadacrack wrote: »
    1151 in hospital, 104 admissions last 24 hours.101 ICU, 18 admissions last 24 hour.

    :eek:
    Wesekn. wrote: »
    Small enough numbers really

    :rolleyes:


  • #1939
    Pinch Flat
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,780 ✭✭✭Pinch Flat


    Wesekn. wrote: »
    Small enough numbers really

    11 posts. Welcome!


  • #1940
    chooey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 347 ✭✭chooey


    Gruffalux wrote: »
    Something I wonder about the 'no tests but just isolate if close contact' policy - how are people supposed to get social support payments for the time of isolation if they have no proof they are positive? That would be two weeks (possibly more) no pay if their employer has no sick pay policy, which is fairly common. With a test you could claim sickness benefit if you have to isolate.
    Also, if they were one of the unlucky ones who indeed had Covid and even worse got a longer sickness from it they might have passed the time of having sufficient virus for the purpose of PCR testing, thus never get a positive result, and that might compromise say a disability claim.
    Also the no test for close contacts is an abandonment of the test, trace, isolate best practice policy - the testing has to be done to close contacts in that policy or else it is not succeeding in its primary objective of containment.

    I'm a close contact of someone that tested positive. Once you get that text off the HSE you just have to contact your gp and they'll send a certificate of incapacity to work to the welfare office for you and you have to fill out a form online. It was easy enough and I got my first weeks payment this week. Thankfully I've had no symptoms but I paid for a private test myself as I'm pregnant and it was negative.


  • #1941
    Happydays2020
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭Happydays2020


    is_that_so wrote: »
    That's really not the impression that comes across on this at all. For some it manifests as an almost daily whinge about the teachers' lot only. Whatever about the latest decision it's somewhat bizarre to see that while they will readily accept the daily HSPC numbers they imagine they are qualified enough to reject the HSE data on schools.

    The teachers unions have been quite militant for a number of years, and many teachers are not in the unions so not representative of all.

    At the same time, many teachers showed a huge willingness to get on board with the new reality in the first 4 months of the term even in cases where they have elderly parents and vulnerable people within the family. I think their concerns are well founded but perhaps poorly articulated.


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  • #1942
    landofthetree
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,464 ✭✭✭landofthetree


    glasso wrote: »
    Israel paid 30 dollars per dose

    twice the price

    https://www.livemint.com/science/health/how-israel-was-able-to-give-covid-vaccine-to-15-of-its-population-in-2-weeks-11609927183734.html

    How much will Israel save if they can lift restrictions early?


  • #1943
    Lawrence Quick Lumber
    Posts: 0 ✭ Lawrence Quick Lumber


    Wesekn. wrote: »
    Small enough numbers really

    Ah ffs.


  • #1944
    landofthetree
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,464 ✭✭✭landofthetree


    laurah591 wrote: »
    Ireland without EU has pretty weak bargaining power. We are as well to be included in EU deal. Look how much everything costs in this country.

    With PUP payments of up to 350 a week even if we paid treble what the EU pay we would still be saving money.


  • #1945
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    landofthetree wrote: »
    How much will Israel save if they can lift restrictions early?
    That's 9m v 450m people.


  • #1946
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,190 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    I think Norma will be quietly asked to find somewhere better suited to her skills.

    You can see what she was trying to do. NPHET's advice was that schools are safe environments, but a million parents doing the school run is not advisable right now and this should be avoided.

    So Norma reckoned, "Well, leaving cert students make their own way to school, so let's do that". Which sounds reasonable in theory, but misses the wider context; it's not necessary and induces unnecessary stress on student, parents and teachers.

    Then of course they close the special schools and get the opposite reaction. There is an element of "damned if you do, damned if you don't", but it goes to show that Foley completely misunderstood the issue. She didn't hear, "6th years don't need to go back". She heard, "Nobody wants to go back". There was no space for nuance in her response.


  • #1947
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,190 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    Icyseanfitz wrote: »
    So they have made 9k of a backlog in positive swabs disappear somehow?
    Yeah, I don't know what they've done.

    It's possible they've quietly just backfilled the data without adding the backlog into the daily figures. This is the correct way to do it so you don't skew the 14 and 7 day counts, but it's all a bit opaque.
    landofthetree wrote: »
    How much will Israel save if they can lift restrictions early?
    This is all a bit academic. Israel managed to get themselves inserted as a special case. We can't all be special. If the EU had paid twice the price for earlier access, Israel would have paid quadruple. If we'd paid quadruple, Israel would have paid 8 times. Etc.

    I said it on another thread, but if the HSE had gone and bought 10 million doses for twice the price and a plan to roll it all out in 3 months without EMA approval, the uptake of the vaccine would be extremely poor and the HSE accused of glory hunting and money wasting.


  • #1948
    Russman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,978 ✭✭✭Russman


    landofthetree wrote: »
    With PUP payments of up to 350 a week even if we paid treble what the EU pay we would still be saving money.

    We are the EU. When the time comes, when this is all over, and the EU is finding a way to ringfence or make COVID borrowings disappear from national balance sheets, how do you think they'd view us if we went outside the bloc on a solo run with vaccines ? And us after running up X amount of billions with the ECB.

    We can't afford to get into a bidding war with anyone, all that would do is drive up the price to a level we can't afford anyway and alienate our EU peers.


  • #1949
    Gruffalux
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,023 ✭✭✭Gruffalux


    chooey wrote: »
    I'm a close contact of someone that tested positive. Once you get that text off the HSE you just have to contact your gp and they'll send a certificate of incapacity to work to the welfare office for you and you have to fill out a form online. It was easy enough and I got my first weeks payment this week. Thankfully I've had no symptoms but I paid for a private test myself as I'm pregnant and it was negative.

    Good to know, all round. Thanks


  • #1950
    Wesekn.
    Closed Accounts Posts: 120 ✭✭Wesekn.


    Simone Hollow Tumor wrote: »
    Ah ffs.

    They should be but they're not


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  • #1951
    Stateofyou
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,431 ✭✭✭Stateofyou


    is_that_so wrote: »
    That's really not the impression that comes across on this at all. For some it manifests as an almost daily whinge about the teachers' lot only. Whatever about the latest decision it's somewhat bizarre to see that while they will readily accept the daily HSPC numbers they imagine they are qualified enough to reject the HSE data on schools.

    I disagree. I don't see the 'teacher's lot' as being pushed here at all, and in my opinion anyone who claims so is taking the lazy road and engaging in the usual begrudgery. Most reasonable people can see the full spectrum of issues, which is nothing to do with teachers.

    A lot of people reject the Governments manipulation of the data in the schools. They have an agenda, to be blunt. The Alerting Parents of Outbreaks in Schools fb page has over 130k members because they knew the gov't spin and withholding of information is not good enough. It's easy to see how the changed definition of a close contact in the schools, the tendency of children to be asymptomatic (with the earlier strain anyway), and the classifying many cases as community/home sourced instead of in the schools allowed gov't to march on schools fully open without having to do the hard work to implement a hybrid remote learning system. To give parents and families choice who needed it, those at higher risk and those who just didn't feel comfortable with the risk at all in a global pandemic. To leave remote learning now on the shoulders of every individual school without the proper planning, funding and support from government means it is not equitable for children. The plans will vary massively from school to school. Some won't have internet or equipment. And what about special needs children. FFS.


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