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Covid 19 Part XXXI-187,554 ROI (2,970 deaths) 100,319 NI (1,730 deaths)(24/01)Read OP

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Comments

  • #1772
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,450 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    Are you happy with the evidence now? Is it up to your threshold?

    No need to try and be smart now is there. We're all free to read the available papers and make our own minds up without someone trying to be a smartarse.

    Theres still alot to know, some papers still aren't convinced. Increased socialisation is still a distinct possibility for rapid spread. Many papers on it, I'm sure you can find some. I've linked some previously. Have we got a clear outcome yet, personally I dont think so.

    Last week the evidence was it was more transmissible in the young, now evidence is it isn't so things are changing constantly. As I've said a long road to go yet before knowing everything in either direction.


  • #1773
    MerlinSouthDub
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,627 ✭✭✭MerlinSouthDub


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    Ronan Glynn - Evidence now emerging that UK variant not transmitting at a higher rate in children as was first thought.


    Theres still a hell of alot to learn about this variant, long road to go yet I'd say.

    Good news re spread in children. I'm still unconvinced that the new variant is causing the increased spread more generally. I think a lot the data is correlation rather than causation. It's winter, people are indoors, windows are closed. But it doesn't really matter at this point anyway, the actions we are taking are the right ones.


  • #1774
    Arghus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,212 ✭✭✭✭Arghus


    Christ George, talk about hogging the questions.

    And he's obviously not aware that the government have changed their plans.


  • #1775
    Endintheclowns
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 138 ✭✭Endintheclowns


    That reproduction number is absolutely frightening.

    Stay at home people unless absolutely necessary.


  • #1776
    Goldengirl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,009 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    kilkenny31 wrote: »
    So a bit of analysis of where we are. Its still bad but we are likely near the peak of infections now. The HSE's worst case scenario is 400 in intensive care which i imagine won't come to pass but if it does we should just about have capacity if private hospitals step up. The main concern will probably not be life threatening illness it will he the people who require some additional support like oxygen. This is what will stretch the hospitals.

    Thise numbers mean 400 Covid !
    Do you not understand that at this moment in time there are over 180 people who cannot just come off a ventilator , get up and go home ? Not to mention that anybody else with any other illness or a bad accident or head injury will not have a bed in ICU .
    Or if they do that means no bed , nurse, ventilator for the next Covid patient .


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  • #1777
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,450 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Arghus wrote: »
    Christ George, talk about hogging the questions.

    And he's obviously not aware that the government have changed their plans.

    Sounds at times as if he's getting confused himself when he asks the questions.

    Some aren't even questions they are statements


  • #1778
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    igCorcaigh wrote: »
    Does the UK have anything similar to the NPHET briefings that we have?
    What I can see from Sky News is just PM and government people.
    They don't really show up in public the way ours do.


  • #1779
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    igCorcaigh wrote: »
    It seems so, unfortunately, and I have been very sceptical :(

    Look there was circumstantial evidence early on and no smoking gun.
    As time went on there were multiple pre prints and studies all adding to it.

    I think what annoyed me the most was that we dismissed it because the UK said it.

    That's a blind spot for us. I initially thought it was politically motivated given the timing with UK lockdown but after digging into it there was enough there to be very concerned.

    Scientists from every country were saying it.

    Fact is they are sequencing 50% of the total samples in the world. SA doing a significant fraction. They were looking we weren't or rather we couldn't hope to spot the pattern.

    P.S great point by Nolan there on probability.


  • #1780
    jojofizzio
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,296 ✭✭✭jojofizzio


    Someone needs to tell the journos the LCs aren’t going in next week...


  • #1781
    Arghus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,212 ✭✭✭✭Arghus


    Someone tell these journalists the news.


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  • #1782
    IrishStuff09
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 814 ✭✭✭IrishStuff09


    CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »
    The graph on shane hastings comparing cases and swabs isn't working?

    Seems to be fine for me, what are you seeing? Could have been the API updating, gets messed up whenever they update it


  • #1783
    Funsterdelux
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,376 ✭✭✭Funsterdelux


    Arghus wrote: »
    Someone tell these journalists the news.

    Its like their questions are written in stone and they cant adapt even if the question has been answered already.


  • #1784
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    No need to try and be smart now is there. We're all free to read the available papers and make our own minds up without someone trying to be a smartarse.

    Theres still alot to know, some papers still aren't convinced. Increased socialisation is still a distinct possibility for rapid spread. Many papers on it, I'm sure you can find some. I've linked some previously. Have we got a clear outcome yet, personally I dont think so.

    Last week the evidence was it was more transmissible in the young, now evidence is it isn't so things are changing constantly. As I've said a long road to go yet before knowing everything in either direction.

    You were extremely dismissive of it or the risk it posed. I'm not being smart. I was trying to inform people of an evolving situation. One which you did not think was relevant.

    Sounds like you still don't think it's an issue. Let me know when you make your mind up. No-one is speaking about being more transmissible in kids but since you bring it up. It categorically is. Simply by virtue of the fact that it's more transmissible in Adults means it's also more transmissible in kids relative to the old strain. No one said it's more transmissible in kids relevant to adults. That's a straw man.

    If it is more transmissible in children then that makes school much more difficult to keep open.

    It's important because if we had have acknowledged it sooner we could have prevent some of the crazy numbers we have now.

    edit: resorting to name calling not appreciated.


  • #1785
    Arghus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,212 ✭✭✭✭Arghus


    Tony didn't skip a beat.


  • #1786
    ByTheSea2019
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 113 ✭✭ByTheSea2019


    I know age is the number one risk factor, but all the lifestyle related health conditions are really up there too - obesity, diabetes etc. I think we need a massive public health campaign on that to get people to make serious long term plans to reduce personal risk where they can. The new year and new years resolutions mght be a good time for it. I'm just struck by how the advice is always wash your hands, social distance, wear a mask etc.to avoid catching I never hear any of the public health experts stand up and say make sure you are a healthy weight to give yourself a fighting chance if you do catch it. It would be a sensitive topic and make the messengers unpopular but I think it's necessary.


  • #1787
    Goldengirl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,009 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    Jinglejangle69 wrote: »
    I was working in one of the hospitals yesterday(not a health worker) and I'm been honest it was very quiet.

    A and E was empty and lot of staff standing around casually talking.

    Now I'm not saying it's like that in all hospitals but RTE and the media are painting a picture of chaos and people running around in a panic in the hospitals.

    Just a bit of balance is fair when reporting.

    Yes.
    For a bit of balance and fair reporting , you told a poster who tested positive he'd be grand that it was just a cold.


  • #1788
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 12,461 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    Very good presser.


  • #1789
    Polar101
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,043 ✭✭✭Polar101


    I wonder if George Lee learned about the R number now.


  • #1790
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    MerlinSouthDub wrote: »
    Good news re spread in children. I'm still unconvinced that the new variant is causing the increased spread more generally. I think a lot the data is correlation rather than causation. It's winter, people are indoors, windows are closed. But it doesn't really matter at this point anyway, the actions we are taking are the right ones.

    That's a good point and certainly helped the virus here but in South Africa it's summer. Also you think the UK, SA , international experts, NPHET, our government have got it all wrong. I find that hard to believe.


  • #1791
    bikeman1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭bikeman1


    I think George Lee would really love to be in Professor Nolan’s class on statistics and numbers. He’s totally fascinated by them. He’s like that student in the class asking, sorry Sir have I got the sums right? Maybe you have yours wrong?

    Ehhhh, no you are not looking at it the right way!


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  • #1792
    cameramonkey
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,220 ✭✭✭cameramonkey


    humberklog wrote: »
    Just to throw my own anecdotal in here- I've 2 shops, one in Dublin city, Dury St. area and one in Howth and from those shops I'd know conservatively of 200 people connected with about 60 small businesses and up until this latest lockdown there was no reported infections with any staff or owners.


    I am involved with 3 restaurants/ take aways, about 50 staff . No infections either for staff or customers that i know. I do know that one Pub in Ranelagh had multiple staff infections and I presume that they could also have spread to customers. Most of the many infection recently that I have heard about are from pubs and hotels and all are people in the 19-28 age range.


  • #1793
    Jinglejangle69
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,133 ✭✭✭Jinglejangle69


    Goldengirl wrote: »
    Yes.
    For a bit of balance and fair reporting , you told a poster who tested positive he'd be grand that it was just a cold.

    Well I was willing to bet that's all it woukd be for him seems that's what it is for 99% of people who test positive.

    I was trying to stop him panicking and worrying which some people seem obsessed with.


  • #1794
    Sammy2012
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,319 ✭✭✭Sammy2012


    What were today's swab numbers? Did I hear on the news at 8 that the backlog had been cleared? What happened to all those cases?


  • #1795
    Polar101
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,043 ✭✭✭Polar101


    Sammy2012 wrote: »
    What were today's swab numbers? Did I hear on the news at 8 that the backlog had been cleared? What happened to all those cases?

    Ctrl + A, Delete


  • #1796
    CIARAN_BOYLE
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,599 ✭✭✭✭CIARAN_BOYLE


    Sammy2012 wrote: »
    What were today's swab numbers? Did I hear on the news at 8 that the backlog had been cleared? What happened to all those cases?

    RTE and VM are reporting this.

    It wasn't mentioned in the press conference.


  • #1797
    Hubertj
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »
    RTE and VM are reporting this.

    It wasn't mentioned in the press conference.

    I thought they said the backlog was still 9k? I’m even more confused now.


  • #1798
    MerlinSouthDub
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,627 ✭✭✭MerlinSouthDub


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    That's a good point and certainly helped the virus here but in South Africa it's summer. Also you think the UK, SA , international experts, NPHET, our government have got it all wrong. I find that hard to believe.

    The SA variant is a different variant, I haven't looked at the data in SA so won't comment.

    You are right that the consensus from experts is very much that the UK variant is more infectious and I'm not questioning them, they clearly know more than me. I do think its impact has been overplayed in the UK and here, versus other potential drivers of increased infectious risk and I'm not sure that is helpful.


  • #1799
    CIARAN_BOYLE
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,599 ✭✭✭✭CIARAN_BOYLE


    Hubertj wrote: »
    I thought they said the backlog was still 9k? I’m even more confused now.

    Did they. I may have missed it but I thought they didn't mention it.


  • #1800
    iamwhoiam
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,249 ✭✭✭✭iamwhoiam


    Why cant they just give todays number and then say the back log is so many and added in ? Surely its not that difficult to do that ?


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  • #1801
    Sammy2012
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,319 ✭✭✭Sammy2012


    CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »
    RTE and VM are reporting this.

    It wasn't mentioned in the press conference.

    Yea I heard it on VM news at 8


This discussion has been closed.
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