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Covid 19 Part XXXI-187,554 ROI (2,970 deaths) 100,319 NI (1,730 deaths)(24/01)Read OP

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Comments

  • #1442
    Drumpot
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭Drumpot


    Very good and sobering explanation of going into ICU on that update from HSE.

    I know many won’t want to listen to it and will think it’s an effort to scare people but it’s important people understand what will happen if our hospitals are over run.


  • #1443
    Goldengirl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,009 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    MerlinSouthDub wrote: »
    I don't think they ever predict what it will be next week. They just give current estimate. They might comment on what impact Level 5 restrictions will have, but they really won't know. Anyway, R is a lagging indicator and I think it's more useful to look at swab data.

    Swab data to me is just a load of hype because until you get positive new cases it is only showing what work is being done in test centres and labs .
    I know some on here put a lot of store in them but for me the only necessary data are the actual case numbers , positivity rate and r number .
    That said I read the posts about the swabs with interest but wouldn't be as concerned .


  • #1444
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,450 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    6,368 swabs from 28,609 tests


  • #1445
    CIARAN_BOYLE
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,599 ✭✭✭✭CIARAN_BOYLE


    Goldengirl wrote: »
    Swab data to me is just a load of hype because until you get positive new cases it is only showing what work is being done in test centres and labs .
    I know some on here put a lot of store in them but for me the only necessary data are the actual case numbers , positivity rate and r number .
    That said I read the posts about the swabs with interest but wouldn't be as concerned .

    I used to be like that but when Nolan started talking about massive backlog due to it I switched interest from case numbers to swab numbers.


  • #1446
    Eod100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,178 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    Briefing at 6ish this evening

    https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1347204480153088006


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  • #1447
    Duke of Url
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,662 ✭✭✭Duke of Url


    Are the available ICU bed numbers being talked about in relation to COVID ICU bed numbers or Total ICU bed numbers.


  • #1448
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 12,464 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    Positivity rate down too.


  • #1449
    SleetAndSnow
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,754 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    6,368 swabs from 28,609 tests

    Only positive I can see is a nearly 2% positivity rate drop, could just be daily variance but hopefully becomes a trend. 28,600 tests is mad since that doesn't include close contacts


  • #1450
    eigrod
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,015 ✭✭✭eigrod


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    Fvck they are going through the hard decisions that may have to made regarding who gets care.

    That ICU doctor was very good. Gave a very balanced account of the situation from their perspective. Huge respect for her and her colleagues.


  • #1451
    Goldengirl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,009 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    Drumpot wrote: »
    Very good and sobering explanation of going into ICU on that update from HSE.

    I know many won’t want to listen to it and will think it’s an effort to scare people but it’s important people understand what will happen if our hospitals are over run.

    It would be good if people actually listened to this.
    She is a very good speaker/ doctor, and although hard choices being made , shows how every case is evaluated and treated with empathy, in the middle of all the technology .
    Lose that compassion, as can happen when staff see a lot of trauma and are overloaded , and time to leave the bedside and move to the office/ clipboard , imo.

    And that is not so say that those nurses or doctors working in office jobs or management are without compassion, far from it , but there is only so much stress and trauma a hcw can take without becoming overloaded and burnt out .


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  • #1452
    JP Liz V1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 91,222 ✭✭✭✭JP Liz V1


    HSE CEO describes the current situation an "extraordinary crisis."

    1,022 patients in hospital - 20 free beds left in public ICUs.
    https://forumofgames.com/




  • #1453
    rob316
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,686 ✭✭✭✭rob316


    Duke of Url wrote: »
    Are the available ICU bed numbers being talked about in relation to COVID ICU bed numbers or Total ICU bed numbers.

    Total. There is currently 20 available before we reach surge capacity.


  • #1454
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    igCorcaigh wrote: »
    Positivity rate down too.

    I think growth has slowed big time. Hopefully we'll see large falls soon.

    The most important thing now is the age-profile of the cases in recent days. If we've hit a plateau that means the cases we're getting are from around Christmas day itself.


  • #1455
    giveitholly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,241 ✭✭✭giveitholly


    SleetAndSnow wrote: »
    Only positive I can see is a nearly 2% positivity rate drop, could just be daily variance but hopefully becomes a trend. 28,600 tests is mad since that doesn't include close contacts

    A certain amount of close contacts are getting a test,they are ringing their GPs to get a test through them.But impossible to say how many


  • #1456
    Goldengirl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,009 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    Duke of Url wrote: »
    Are the available ICU bed numbers being talked about in relation to COVID ICU bed numbers or Total ICU bed numbers.

    Available beds are available for all ICU patients .
    Normally there would be reserved beds for patients post major surgery taken before that number .
    Some of these surgeries are still going ahead , being reviewed on a case by case basis .


  • #1457
    Duke of Url
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,662 ✭✭✭Duke of Url


    rob316 wrote: »
    Total. There is currently 20 available before we reach surge capacity.
    Goldengirl wrote: »
    Available beds are available for all ICU patients .

    :(


  • #1458
    Goldengirl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,009 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    Duke of Url wrote: »
    :(

    See my edit above.


  • #1459
    wadacrack
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,172 ✭✭✭wadacrack


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    6,368 swabs from 28,609 tests

    Still not good considering Wednesday is usually the highest number. You seem to only post swab results when theirs a downward trend btw.


  • #1460
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,450 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    wadacrack wrote: »
    Still not good considering Wednesday is usually the highest number. You seem to only post swab results when theirs a downward trend btw.

    Eh no, little point in reposting if someone has posted them. Nobody had posted them when I went onto the site so I posted here.

    Simple as. No need for that line either.

    What downward trend?


  • #1461
    ixoy
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 18,045 Mod ✭✭✭✭ixoy


    From speaking with a GP, it does at least seem that a lot of people reporting in now are already self isolating (having caught it off a family member so they were prepared) and have greatly reduced contacts. Presumably this will mean big numbers for a few more days before we finally start to see some tapering.


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  • #1462
    Amirani
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 12,554 Mod ✭✭✭✭Amirani


    rob316 wrote: »
    Total. There is currently 20 available before we reach surge capacity.

    Yep, it's pretty serious.

    Surge capacity isn't just some handy fall back we have sitting around either, it means reducing/removing resources from other medical specialties and/or providing an inferior level of ICU care. We're inevitably getting there now though.


  • #1463
    Drumpot
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭Drumpot


    Did I hear It mentioned something about 5% of positive cases confirmed end up in hospital? I presume this is just an average trend of the gross amount infected (as we never know exactly how many are infected at any given time).

    But does that not mean that even over the last week that equates to over a thousand hospital beds and hundreds and maybe a few thousand over the coming 2 weeks? With 17 day average in hospital are we basically lighting candles to hope our hospitals don’t get overrun?

    Will this equate to basically triage of patients dieing who might of been saved has the services been available? How else might that affect us? Long term mental health issues for medical staff? Burnout?

    My sister works in a hospital up North, I am wondering how this may impact her.


  • #1464
    funnydoggy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,065 ✭✭✭funnydoggy


    Someone on reddit posted that their stage 4 colon cancer surgery has been postponed due to the crisis :(


  • #1465
    Pete_Cavan
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,376 ✭✭✭Pete_Cavan


    Goldengirl wrote: »
    Swab data to me is just a load of hype because until you get positive new cases it is only showing what work is being done in test centres and labs .
    I know some on here put a lot of store in them but for me the only necessary data are the actual case numbers , positivity rate and r number .
    That said I read the posts about the swabs with interest but wouldn't be as concerned .


    Surely the actual case numbers are equally "only showing what work is being done in test centres and labs" but a day or two later? Or mostly likely, a combination of some of the work being done in test centres and labs the previous day plus work that was done there several days before but didn't actually get reported, i.e. the backlog.

    The daily announced case numbers are largely meaningless as they are regularly under-reported and then over-reported in order to make up for the previous under-reporting. Aren't daily case numbers just the swab numbers after going through a valuation process? Despite said validation process, they regularly denotify previously announced cases. The swabs may be less refined data but it is in real-time


  • #1466
    rob316
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,686 ✭✭✭✭rob316


    How long after cases have peaked will hospitalizations peak? Or what is the lag between both currently?


  • #1467
    CIARAN_BOYLE
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,599 ✭✭✭✭CIARAN_BOYLE


    Drumpot wrote: »
    Did I hear It mentioned something about 5% of positive cases confirmed end up in hospital? I presume this is just an average trend of the gross amount infected (as we never know exactly how many are infected at any given time).

    But does that not mean that even over the last week that equates to over a thousand hospital beds and hundreds and maybe a few thousand over the coming 2 weeks? With 17 day average in hospital are we basically lighting candles to hope our hospitals don’t get overrun?

    Will this equate to basically triage of patients dieing who might of been saved has the services been available? How else might that affect us? Long term mental health issues for medical staff? Burnout?

    My sister works in a hospital up North, I am wondering how this may impact her.

    this average is correct but it's falling as there was a higher % that ended up in hospital in the beginning. It was much lower in June-December but I suspect it will go up as we are missing more asymptomatic persons now (due to close contacts not getting a test).

    We are also cancelling everything possible to make space in the hospitals. Other than that it's hope and pray. Don't get in a car crash as they might not have icu beds for you.

    Northern Ireland was in this position a while back. I know of one person who had a badly broken arm back in November (maybe October) . He went to A&E, got an xray and was told he needed surgery or it would heal wrong and he it would not be properly right for the rest of his life. An hour later he was told there was no surgical capacity available due to covid and he would have to take his chances.


  • #1468
    c.p.w.g.w
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,998 ✭✭✭c.p.w.g.w


    funnydoggy wrote: »
    Someone on reddit posted that their stage 4 colon cancer surgery has been postponed due to the crisis :(

    That is surely a death sentence


  • #1469
    MerlinSouthDub
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,627 ✭✭✭MerlinSouthDub


    Goldengirl wrote: »
    Swab data to me is just a load of hype because until you get positive new cases it is only showing what work is being done in test centres and labs .
    I know some on here put a lot of store in them but for me the only necessary data are the actual case numbers , positivity rate and r number .
    That said I read the posts about the swabs with interest but wouldn't be as concerned .

    Swab data has been consistently the only reliable way of tracking cases. The reporting of cases has always been erratic.


  • #1470
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 18,962 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    rob316 wrote: »
    How long after cases have peaked will hospitalizations peak? Or what is the lag between both currently?

    probably roughly a 10 to 12 day lag average from case confirmation to hospitalisation at a guess?

    Then depends on how long they need to stay in, who ends up in ICU etc (if ICU space at this rate) and for how long there.


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  • #1471
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 8,647 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Hancock suggesting that vaccine may only provide immunity for up to 6/12 months.:eek:


This discussion has been closed.
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